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Monday, May 21, 2018

Dan Duquette, Orioles Understand Trading Manny Machado Seems Inevitable

“Usually, we try to go to Memorial Day and see where you are on Memorial Day and see what the strength and weaknesses are of the team are and how we can supplement what we need to compete,” Duquette said. “I am not sure we will be in that position this year.”

The asking price for Machado will be steep. Shortstop Addison Russell and outfielder Ian Happ are the two Cubs who have often found their names tied to Machado trade rumors, and as cost-controlled young players under contract for quite some time, they represent the type of return the Orioles are seeking.

Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: May 21, 2018 at 12:45 AM | 92 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: brad brach, manny machado, orioles, zach britton

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   1. Walt Davis Posted: May 21, 2018 at 12:56 AM (#5676241)
Good luck with that. I won't rule it out if Machado agrees to a "reasonable" extension as a condition of the trade. Russell remains frustrating in that his offense hasn't improved (yet) but he's still better than 4 WAR per 650 PA (which he has yet to reach in a season). Cubs have 4 years of (relatively expensive) control left and an extra win or two out of Machado over the rest of 2018 isn't worth anything near that.

Now 5+ years of Ian Happ on his own, that I'd consider although that would entail (1) the Cubs deciding Happ ain't all that and (b) Machado back to 3B and Bryant to the OF.
   2. Ray (CTL) Posted: May 21, 2018 at 02:16 AM (#5676244)
14 months too late to trade him, but better late than continuing to cast about aimlessly like a chicken with its head cut off never.

It was clear in 2017 that the Orioles weren't contending for anything, any time soon. They should have maxed out on his value then.
   3. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: May 21, 2018 at 03:01 AM (#5676249)
It's kind of stupid to see a team that just signed Alex Cobb to a 4-year contract turn around and have a fire sale.
   4. Tim M Posted: May 21, 2018 at 03:41 AM (#5676251)
EDIT: forgot, he's a free agent. D'oh, my bad.
   5. bfan Posted: May 21, 2018 at 08:02 AM (#5676272)
I would assume the only way the orioles get a great return is to somehow induce the Cubs; Dodgers; and Braves into a bidding war. Am I correct that under the new CBA, a team that trades for Machado now and loses him to FA does not get a compensation draft pick any more?
   6. Rally Posted: May 21, 2018 at 08:20 AM (#5676274)
Am I correct that under the new CBA, a team that trades for Machado now and loses him to FA does not get a compensation draft pick any more?


Correct. He has to be on the team the whole season, so the only team that can collect a comp pick for him is the Orioles.
   7. Benji Gil Gamesh VII - The Opt-Out Awakens Posted: May 21, 2018 at 08:30 AM (#5676275)
They're just going to get prospects aren't they? When is the last time a team got good, cost-controlled young players for a rental? (I guess it doesn't actually say "good" but Russell and Happ certainly are.)
   8. Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine Posted: May 21, 2018 at 08:32 AM (#5676277)
I still don't understand why there is such certainty that the Orioles can't resign him and are just giving up on the idea. They should have the resources to splash the cash and Machado is certainly a player worth doing that for.
   9. McCoy Posted: May 21, 2018 at 09:16 AM (#5676291)
If I was the Cubs, Dodgers, or Braves I would just wait until he was a FA to pick him up. If I was the Cubs I probably wouldn't seriously go after him.
   10. Spahn Insane Posted: May 21, 2018 at 09:20 AM (#5676294)
If the Cubs trade 4 years of Addison Russell (let alone Russell + Happ) for two or three months of Manny Machado, I'm gonna be pretty irked.
   11. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: May 21, 2018 at 09:34 AM (#5676300)
Given that the Yankees are loaded to the gills with MLB talent and have the #2 farm system on top of it, they're in a good position to pass on Machado and keep their powder dry for a starting pitcher and still stay under the luxury tax threshold. The only way I'd want them to get in the bidding would be to keep him away from the Red Sox.

I still don't understand why there is such certainty that the Orioles can't resign him and are just giving up on the idea. They should have the resources to splash the cash and Machado is certainly a player worth doing that for.

It's not that the Orioles don't have the money to resign Machado. It's that (1) he's not a one man team and they desperately need an influx of young talent; and (2) unless he's willing to give the O's all kinds of sentimental thumbs on the scale, he'd be crazy to re-sign with a team that's obviously going nowhere and become a modern day Ernie Banks. I'd much rather see him stay in Baltimore, but the way things are playing out so far this year that's a virtually impossible outcome.
   12. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 21, 2018 at 09:39 AM (#5676302)
The way to do this is for Manny to figure out who he wants to play for, and do a trade/extension.

If they could extend him at market price, I'd be fine with the Yankees offering Andujar, and Baltimore's choice of one of Sheffield/Adams/German/Abreu/Acevedo, plus some filler.

If it's just for the rental? You're talking someone like Adams, Abreu, or Acevedo as the headliner. Torres, Florial, Andujar, and Sheffield are completely off the table.
   13. BDC Posted: May 21, 2018 at 09:40 AM (#5676303)
I guess I never quite grasp the rhetoric of "we're not going to be good for ages, let's give up on a star player." The success cycle just isn't that long; or if it is, it's because teams make it a self-fulfilling prophecy by giving up on star players.

Obviously, if you have a better use for that ton of money and can also get a great return on Machado, it makes a lot of sense to give up on re-signing him, and just trade him. But trade him from the point of view of future advantage, not of defeatism.
   14. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 21, 2018 at 09:42 AM (#5676305)
Given that the Yankees are loaded to the gills with MLB talent and have the #2 farm system on top of it, they're in a good position to pass on Machado and keep their powder dry for a starting pitcher and still stay under the luxury tax threshold. The only way I'd want them to get in the bidding would be to keep him away from the Red Sox.

No. Just no, to a big $ FA SP. They almost never work out. I wouldn't touch Kershaw with a 10 foot pole.

Machado is the guy who makes sense for the Yankees, but I'm happy to wait for FA. Harper's great, but I don't think you want to force him to play CF.
   15. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 21, 2018 at 09:43 AM (#5676306)
I guess I never quite grasp the rhetoric of "we're not going to be good for ages, let's give up on a star player." The success cycle just isn't that long; or if it is, it's because teams make it a self-fulfilling prophecy by giving up on star players.

Obviously, if you have a better use for that ton of money and can also get a great return on Machado, it makes a lot of sense to give up on re-signing him, and just trade him. But trade him from the point of view of future advantage, not of defeatism.


Concur. If the O's can sign him, they should.
   16. asinwreck Posted: May 21, 2018 at 09:44 AM (#5676311)
Unless Machado has a passionate sentimental love for one team, I don't see him passing up the opportunity to establish his value on the open market. I am very curious to see what offers he and Harper get.
   17. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 21, 2018 at 09:53 AM (#5676320)
Unless Machado has a passionate sentimental love for one team, I don't see him passing up the opportunity to establish his value on the open market. I am very curious to see what offers he and Harper get.

I would think his agent can get a pretty good sense of market value from talking with teams off the record.

He can ask the 4 or 5 likeliest suitors, "If we agree to a trade/extension, what would you offer on the extension?".
   18. Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine Posted: May 21, 2018 at 09:54 AM (#5676323)
I don't see him passing up the opportunity to establish his value on the open market.


I agree with that but I don't think the Orioles should be in a position where they can't compete. Machado is both young enough and talented enough that he's a good bet to be worth the outrageous deal he's almost certain to get.

Just as a side note Jon Lester mentioned that one of the reasons he chose the Cubs over the Red Sox after 2014 is that when the Sox traded him it made him realize what it was like to play for a different organization. He said if the trade hadn't been made and the offers had been the same he probably would have stayed in Boston.
   19. Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine Posted: May 21, 2018 at 09:56 AM (#5676325)
He can ask the 4 or 5 likeliest suitors, "If we agree to a trade/extension, what would you offer on the extension?".


That's pretty much the definition of tampering. I'm not saying it's not doable but I wonder if that's something that's commonly done. Why would a team potentially expose themselves on that? They can make the trade for less value then make an offer when the trade is made. If Machado doesn't accept OK, now you have a base line.
   20. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 21, 2018 at 10:00 AM (#5676329)
That's pretty much the definition of tampering. I'm not saying it's not doable but I wonder if that's something that's commonly done. Why would a team potentially expose themselves on that? They can make the trade for less value then make an offer when the trade is made. If Machado doesn't accept OK, now you have a base line.

It's in the Orioles' interest, it's in the acquiring team's interest, it's in Machado's interest. I don't see who is going to complain.
   21. Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine Posted: May 21, 2018 at 10:08 AM (#5676336)
I don't think it's in the acquiring team's interest. Presumably by doing a trade and extend they are creating a situation where the Orioles get more talent out of them in the trade. There is no reason for them to make the trade THEN make Manny the same offer.

For example, if the price for Machado without the extension would be Andujar and a Single A kid why would the Yankees say "hold on, we'll make it Torres and Andujar if we can just find out what it would cost to sign him." Make the lesser trade then make the contract offer.
   22. Zonk is a cagey fellow Posted: May 21, 2018 at 10:13 AM (#5676339)
If the Cubs trade 4 years of Addison Russell (let alone Russell + Happ) for two or three months of Manny Machado, I'm gonna be pretty irked.


Cosign.
   23. McCoy Posted: May 21, 2018 at 10:14 AM (#5676340)
What could happen is that the Orioles work out a deal with a team contingent on an extension. They agree to let team A talk to Manny and his agent and work out an extension. Usually something like 72 hours. In the old days before FA a team would sometimes trade a player that hadn't signed his seasonal contract yet. Because the dollars were generally so trivial the original owner of the player would work out a contract with a player knowing full well that as soon as it is signed the trade would become official. The owners were still skinflints in those cases as well.
   24. Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine Posted: May 21, 2018 at 10:24 AM (#5676350)
McCoy - Do those deals happen during the season? I know it's happened in the off-season but I can't recall it happening during a season. Usually it's stuff like picking up an option in exchange for waiving a no trade clause or something like that.
   25. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: May 21, 2018 at 10:24 AM (#5676351)
Cosign.
Thirded. I was willing to forgive one Torres-for-Chapman deal, given the outcome, but not a second.
   26. Spahn Insane Posted: May 21, 2018 at 10:28 AM (#5676355)
Well, if they had an assurance they could extend Machado, that's another matter. Rizzo/Baez/Machado/Bryant would be a pretty good infield...
   27. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: May 21, 2018 at 10:28 AM (#5676356)
Unless a team agrees to completely overpay for Machado's extension, I just can't see it happening. Why would he agree otherwise? And why would a team agree to overpay for both the extension, and with talent going back to the O's. It just doesn't make sense for it to happen.
   28. Nasty Nate Posted: May 21, 2018 at 10:36 AM (#5676360)
McCoy - Do those deals happen during the season?
I was about to ask the same thing. I don't remember any recent mid-season trade-and-extensions of pending FA's, but I might be forgetting some.
   29. McCoy Posted: May 21, 2018 at 10:40 AM (#5676362)
I don't recall but Jim Bowden wrote a column many years ago talking about how trades get done before the trade deadline and one of the points he makes is that GM have to work with agents to eradicate no trade clauses and extensions to get trades done. I don't know when the last time there was one. I don't think anyone was interested in extending Alfonso but I do recall some happening in the last 15 years. Usually players with a NTC or 10/5 rights.
   30. Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos Posted: May 21, 2018 at 10:42 AM (#5676364)
7. Benji Gil Gamesh VII - The Opt-Out Awakens Posted: May 21, 2018 at 08:30 AM (#5676275)
They're just going to get prospects aren't they? When is the last time a team got good, cost-controlled young players for a rental?


Does the Padres trading half a season of Chase Headley for Yangveris Solarte count?
   31. McCoy Posted: May 21, 2018 at 10:44 AM (#5676366)
Unless a team agrees to completely overpay for Machado's extension, I just can't see it happening. Why would he agree otherwise? And why would a team agree to overpay for both the extension, and with talent going back to the O's. It just doesn't make sense for it to happen.

Well, the "crazy overpay" might not turn out to be a crazy overpay by the end of the season. For instance let's say the Cubs do trade Russell for Machado and agree to a 10 yr 450 million dollar contract but in the offseason Harper gets a 10 yr 550 million dollar contract and Kershaw opts out and gets 50 million per annum and Blackmon gets 50 million per annum as well along with Donaldson. Then it isn't so crazy.
   32. Blastin Posted: May 21, 2018 at 10:49 AM (#5676373)
For instance let's say the Cubs do trade Russell for Machado and agree to a 10 yr 450 million dollar contract but in the offseason Harper gets a 10 yr 550 million dollar contract and Kershaw opts out and gets 50 million per annum and Blackmon gets 50 million per annum as well along with Donaldson. Then it isn't so crazy.


Uh. Yeah very little of that is going to happen, especially considering Blackmon already re-signed for not even close to 30.
   33. McCoy Posted: May 21, 2018 at 10:52 AM (#5676375)
You say that now.
   34. Rally Posted: May 21, 2018 at 10:53 AM (#5676377)
For instance let's say the Cubs do trade Russell for Machado and agree to a 10 yr 450 million dollar contract but in the offseason Harper gets a 10 yr 550 million dollar contract and Kershaw opts out and gets 50 million per annum and Blackmon gets 50 million per annum as well along with Donaldson. Then it isn't so crazy.


Blackmon's already signed an extension.

Too late. Help yourself to a Coke.
   35. Nasty Nate Posted: May 21, 2018 at 10:53 AM (#5676378)
They're just going to get prospects aren't they? When is the last time a team got good, cost-controlled young players for a rental?
Does 1.5 years of Cespedes for Lester count?
   36. McCoy Posted: May 21, 2018 at 10:55 AM (#5676381)
Just throwing out names guys to say we don't know what the market will be then but a GM can try a make a bet on what it will be and lock in a cheaper rate now.
   37. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 21, 2018 at 11:07 AM (#5676397)
Unless a team agrees to completely overpay for Machado's extension, I just can't see it happening. Why would he agree otherwise?

Because he puts $400M in the bank with no uncertainty.
   38. Blastin Posted: May 21, 2018 at 11:25 AM (#5676421)
Machado needs to stop being a bad shortstop if he wants all that money. He is playing defense at Jeter level.

I would gladly accept him at 3B tho
   39. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 21, 2018 at 11:38 AM (#5676431)
Machado needs to stop being a bad shortstop if he wants all that money. He is playing defense at Jeter level.

I would gladly accept him at 3B tho


Luckily the Yankees don't need a SS :-)

But a 182 wRC+ plays anywhere, even with Jeterian D.
   40. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: May 21, 2018 at 11:39 AM (#5676433)

I guess I never quite grasp the rhetoric of "we're not going to be good for ages, let's give up on a star player." The success cycle just isn't that long; or if it is, it's because teams make it a self-fulfilling prophecy by giving up on star players.
Especially for someone like Machado, who's 25 years old. The odds of getting someone as valuable as him back in a trade are almost nil, even if the other team can extend him as a condition of the trade. Moreover, trading him just leaves you with another massive hole to fill.
Obviously, if you have a better use for that ton of money and can also get a great return on Machado, it makes a lot of sense to give up on re-signing him, and just trade him. But trade him from the point of view of future advantage, not of defeatism.
The other reason, which you omit, is if you're 100% sure you can't resign him. Like, he's told you privately, "I don't care how much money you offer; I'm outta here."
   41. escabeche Posted: May 21, 2018 at 11:51 AM (#5676443)
The thing is -- why is it obvious the Orioles can't contend?

Are the Orioles in a worse position now than they were in 2010, coming off 5 straight 90-loss seasons? With a bunch of young but fairly mediocre starting pitching and a lineup whose biggest star was Nick Markakis, who was already starting to show he was never going to regain his age-24 form? Their farm system wasn't thought of as anything special. Two years later they were in the midst of a run of contending seasons.

   42. Blastin Posted: May 21, 2018 at 11:57 AM (#5676450)
Luckily the Yankees don't need a SS :-)

But a 182 wRC+ plays anywhere, even with Jeterian D.


I mean, Jeter's OPS+ wasn't near that and it played, so, yes. But yeah, I love Sir Didi and want to keep him.
   43. spycake Posted: May 21, 2018 at 12:00 PM (#5676454)
Am I correct that under the new CBA, a team that trades for Machado now and loses him to FA does not get a compensation draft pick any more?


This is correct, but it's not a new provision in the latest CBA -- this has been the rule since 2012. So it should be reflected in trades over the last 6 years.
   44. drdr Posted: May 21, 2018 at 12:36 PM (#5676479)
Are the Orioles in a worse position now than they were in 2010, coming off 5 straight 90-loss seasons?

In 2010 Yankees and Boston were trying to remain competitive and to rebuild their rosters - in following seasons Boston had two last-place finishes, and NY had several seasons under 90 wins. Now both Boston and NY have good, young rosters and Toronto has some of the most exciting prospects. If Baltimore reloads, and everything breaks just right, I could see them having surprising season, finishing 5th in AL and still only 4th in AL East.
   45. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 21, 2018 at 01:16 PM (#5676512)
Are the Orioles in a worse position now than they were in 2010, coming off 5 straight 90-loss seasons? With a bunch of young but fairly mediocre starting pitching and a lineup whose biggest star was Nick Markakis, who was already starting to show he was never going to regain his age-24 form? Their farm system wasn't thought of as anything special. Two years later they were in the midst of a run of contending seasons.

I agree.

In 2010 Yankees and Boston were trying to remain competitive and to rebuild their rosters - in following seasons Boston had two last-place finishes, and NY had several seasons under 90 wins. Now both Boston and NY have good, young rosters and Toronto has some of the most exciting prospects. If Baltimore reloads, and everything breaks just right, I could see them having surprising season, finishing 5th in AL and still only 4th in AL East.

Both the Yankees and Red Sox are a Severino/Sale injury away from being merely good. Any projection of teams' talent that goes beyond a year or two is futile.

There's no reason in the world for the O's not to want Machado over the next 10 years.
   46. birdlives is one crazy ninja Posted: May 21, 2018 at 01:43 PM (#5676542)
Are the Orioles in a worse position now than they were in 2010, coming off 5 straight 90-loss seasons? With a bunch of young but fairly mediocre starting pitching and a lineup whose biggest star was Nick Markakis, who was already starting to show he was never going to regain his age-24 form? Their farm system wasn't thought of as anything special. Two years later they were in the midst of a run of contending seasons.

Much worse. In terms of 25 and under talent, the O's are really light today. Austin Hays, Sisco, and Harvey with not much else (maybe Mountcastle or Wells, you could throw in Mancini and Schoop if look at 26 and under). In 2010, the O's had just drafted Machado. Jones, Davis, and Tillman (and Davis to come the next year) were on the big league roster and Arrieta, Britton, and Matusz all looked like good prospects.
   47. drdr Posted: May 21, 2018 at 02:02 PM (#5676563)
Both the Yankees and Red Sox are a Severino/Sale injury away from being merely good. Any projection of teams' talent that goes beyond a year or two is futile.

There's no reason in the world for the O's not to want Machado over the next 10 years.

Both Boston and NY are at least two significant injuries from being under 90 team.
There is no reason for Baltimore not to want Machado, especially now when they won't get that much. They should have traded him last year. This year they are better off trying to extend him.
Rest of the division is in different stage than in 2010. In 2010 Boston and NY had changing and aging rosters. Now they have young rosters and, while things can change in a hurry (especially because of injuries), they look to be 90+ teams for a while. And Toronto has high-end talent in minors, so they are more likely to break out than Baltimore.
   48. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: May 21, 2018 at 02:19 PM (#5676588)
Much worse. In terms of 25 and under talent, the O's are really light today. Austin Hays, Sisco, and Harvey with not much else (maybe Mountcastle or Wells, you could throw in Mancini and Schoop if look at 26 and under). In 2010, the O's had just drafted Machado. Jones, Davis, and Tillman (and Davis to come the next year) were on the big league roster and Arrieta, Britton, and Matusz all looked like good prospects.


Weiters was also there in 2010 and had his two best seasons in 2011 and 2012.

Plus, the benefit of 6 straight 90 loss seasons (including 2011), is the average draft position:
2007 - 5th pick
2008 - 4
2009 - 5
2010 - 3
2011 - 4
2012 - 4
2013 - 37
2014 - 22
2015 - 36
2016 - 25
2017 - 27
2018 - 21
   49. karlmagnus Posted: May 21, 2018 at 02:29 PM (#5676597)
Thanks to Dave Dombrowski, the Red Sox talent base runs out sharply in 2020, and they have nothing in the minors to replace it. Machado presumably still useful in 2021-22; the problem may be that Baltimore have nothing much else in the minors.
   50. Brian C Posted: May 21, 2018 at 02:33 PM (#5676602)
If the Cubs trade 4 years of Addison Russell (let alone Russell + Happ) for two or three months of Manny Machado, I'm gonna be pretty irked.

Agreed, but I think that if the Cubs would do this, it would be done already. It wouldn't be a three-month rental, it would have been five.

And I mean, one can't even point to the Chapman trade as a sign that the Cubs might do this - that trade wasn't anything like this. Torres hadn't even broken AA, and while he was highly rated there was obviously still a lot of risk for the Yanks that he wouldn't amount to much. Russell and Happ are both established MLB players. For all his inconsistency, Happ has 550 PA of 117 OPS+ already, and Russell could retire today and point to more bWAR to his name (11.2) than any number of players who were in the league 3 times as long.

That's just not the same kind of thing. It just makes no sense that a smart front office would do that, and it makes less sense with every passing day as the window before Machado's FA gets closer.
   51. Blastin Posted: May 21, 2018 at 02:33 PM (#5676605)
Yankees are set up for longer than the Sox, since they still have replacements coming up, but as of right now, yes, losing Severino would shatter their 100 W goals.

In 2020, well, we have no idea. They have Judge/Sanchez/Bird through then, Torres through 2023, Andujar through 2023, etc etc But yes, more starters needed.
   52. Count Vorror Rairol Mencoon (CoB) Posted: May 21, 2018 at 02:45 PM (#5676616)
losing Severino would shatter their 100 W goals.


I'd go with dent. They've got Montgomery coming back fairly soon for the rotation, Kahnle and Warren to bolster the bullpen and Bird for the lineup.

This team could be even better ...
   53. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 21, 2018 at 02:47 PM (#5676617)
In 2020, well, we have no idea. They have Judge/Sanchez/Bird through then, Torres through 2023, Andujar through 2023, etc etc But yes, more starters needed.

We don't even know if Bird is a major leaguer, much less a building block. But yes, the Yankees could easily be mediocre in 2020 if the young starting pitching doesn't develop.
   54. rconn23 Posted: May 21, 2018 at 03:14 PM (#5676647)
"There's no reason in the world for the O's not to want Machado over the next 10 years."

Any team would want Machado, but the O's have to trade him. They should have done so last season when their pitchers were being regularly pulverized. They have a lousy farm system and one of the worst rosters in baseball. (Chris Davis for four more years!) There's no way he's going to resign.
   55. rconn23 Posted: May 21, 2018 at 03:15 PM (#5676650)
"Both Boston and NY are at least two significant injuries from being under 90 team."

That's true of any team.
   56. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 21, 2018 at 03:16 PM (#5676652)
Any team would want Machado, but the O's have to trade him. They should have done so last season when their pitchers were being regularly pulverized. They have a lousy farm system and one of the worst rosters in baseball. (Chris Davis for four more years!) There's no way he's going to resign.

That's fine. But if all you get back is a B-prospect, and filler, it's probably not worth the publicity hit. Better to keep him, try and re-sign him, and take the draft pick if you can't.
   57. The Yankee Clapper Posted: May 21, 2018 at 03:34 PM (#5676671)
I still don't understand why there is such certainty that the Orioles can't resign him and are just giving up on the idea. They should have the resources to splash the cash and Machado is certainly a player worth doing that for.

The Angelos era Orioles have made some poor deals, but they don't seem interested in the mega-money category these days. They might have tempted Machado with a Trout or Stanton type deal a year or two ago, but apparently never made any serious offer. Now Machado is so close to free agency, and playing so well, that it'd be even more costly. The Orioles could still afford it - Angelos is extremely rich - but if they wanted a deal they'd have already done it.
   58. Rally Posted: May 21, 2018 at 03:50 PM (#5676687)
He is playing defense at Jeter level.


His DRS is -5 so far. Not good, but that's about a -15 pace, Jeter was generally worse. Jeter was usually bottom of the barrel in range factor, leading to the debates about how the defensive metrics overrated him and he was really costing the team 50 runs per year, not 20.

Machado has a 4.29 RF/9, which is second to only Simmons among starting AL shortstops.
   59. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: May 21, 2018 at 04:00 PM (#5676698)
"Both Boston and NY are at least two significant injuries from being under 90 team."

That's true of any team.

And for the Yankees to wind up with under 90 wins, they'd have to play under .500 (59-60) for the rest of the season.

It's also true that the Yankees might not have even reached their full potential, given that Clint Frazier's just come off the DL**, with Greg Bird, Tommy Kahnle and Adam Warren to follow. Their overall team OPS+ is "only" 113, but it's been steadily rising and is likely to get higher.

** But he got sent back to AAA today because there just wasn't enough space on the roster for him! He was in the lineup on Saturday against KC, and reached base 3 times with a long double and 2 walks.
   60. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 21, 2018 at 04:14 PM (#5676709)
It's also true that the Yankees might not have even reached their full potential, given that Clint Frazier's just come off the DL**, with Greg Bird, Tommy Kahnle and Adam Warren to follow. Their overall team OPS+ is "only" 113, but it's been steadily rising and is likely to get higher.


Yeah but the ERA+ is 125. I don't think that's sustainable. So, you're going to lose on run prevention what you might gave on run production.
   61. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: May 21, 2018 at 04:23 PM (#5676716)
Any team would want Machado, but the O's have to trade him. They should have done so last season when their pitchers were being regularly pulverized. They have a lousy farm system and one of the worst rosters in baseball. (Chris Davis for four more years!) There's no way he's going to resign.
The Angels went through this with the Trout extension, and my logic with Trout holds with Machado: this is not just a good or even great player, this is an all-time franchise inner-circle guy. There's a pretty good chance that all the prospects he nets put together won't match the value of his play for the duration of his next contract. Find his dollar amount, bargain it down as best you can, SHOW HIM THE MONEY, and then for the next decade you can rebuild knowing that you have at least one everyday position that you'll never have to think about.
   62. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 21, 2018 at 04:32 PM (#5676725)
There's a pretty good chance that all the prospects he nets put together won't match the value of his play for the duration of his next contract.

There's a pretty good chance that all the prospects together won't equal the value he puts up in the remainder of this season.
   63. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: May 21, 2018 at 05:27 PM (#5676764)
There's a pretty good chance that all the prospects together won't equal the value he puts up in the remainder of this season.

Well how good that chance is depends on the actual prospects, but sure. But whatever value they do produce, will be in seasons where the O's aren't a guaranteed 18 games under .500 halfway through May.
   64. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: May 21, 2018 at 05:36 PM (#5676772)
It's also true that the Yankees might not have even reached their full potential, given that Clint Frazier's just come off the DL**, with Greg Bird, Tommy Kahnle and Adam Warren to follow. Their overall team OPS+ is "only" 113, but it's been steadily rising and is likely to get higher.

Yeah but the ERA+ is 125. I don't think that's sustainable. So, you're going to lose on run prevention what you might gave on run production.


I'm not completely sold on that. The Yankees had essentially the same pitching roster last year, and it put up a 122 ERA+. Sabathia's clearly overperforming, but then Gray and Tanaka aren't sub-100 pitching talents, and the bullpen's as loaded as ever. The average age of the staff is 28.3, with only Sabathia over 30.
   65. Walt Davis Posted: May 21, 2018 at 06:31 PM (#5676805)
I'd missed the news on Blackmon's extension (what he was doing in the list of McCoy's potential blockbusters I have no idea). It's an interesting deal. This was his last pre-FA year so it would have been easy enough to wait it out. Instead he signed for ...

well, it's complicated. b-r reports it as a 3/$64.5 extension (ignoring this season for simplicity). But it's really a 5/$95.5 extension with opt-outs after years 3 and 4. Blackmon will be entering his age 35 season after year 3 so he's probably not going anywhere. The first player option is for $21 and the second is for $10 but can go up as high as $18 depending on 2018-21 results. Anyway, it ain't anywhere near $50 M nor would Blackmon have ever had any kind of chance at $50 M at his age.

By the way, b-r despises Blackmon's defense so much this year that he's barely above-replacement despite the 130 OPS+. If that's right, he's worse than Griffey or Bernie at their worst. Statcast kinda agrees, It puts him at 5 outs below average which is still among the 10 worst. Even if we cut the Rfield number in half, that's only enough to shift him to average overall.

EDIT 1: Recall that statcast doesn't make any positional adjustment, all OFs are rated together. So Blackmon is performing as poorly as the worst corner OFs. Given the positional adjustment, Rfield and statcast are pretty close on Blackmon so far this year.

EDIT 2: The big news is that Matt Kemp, easily the worst OF by statcast standards since they've started tracking catch probability, is average this year.
   66. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: May 21, 2018 at 06:53 PM (#5676816)
The big news is that Matt Kemp, easily the worst OF by statcast standards since they've started tracking catch probability, is average this year.
Depending on who you ask, Kemp is between 20 and 40 pounds lighter now than he was when he left the Dodgers. That seems like a lot.
   67. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 21, 2018 at 07:02 PM (#5676821)
Depending on who you ask, Kemp is between 20 and 40 pounds lighter now than he was when he left the Dodgers. That seems like a lot.

Also the recent UZR update showed he was never as awful as we thought, and, per UZR, he's not that good this year.

UZR has him at -5/150 so far in 2018. The last 4 years, he's ranged from -12 to -16.
   68. Greg Pope Posted: May 21, 2018 at 07:08 PM (#5676826)
If I was the Cubs, Dodgers, or Braves I would just wait until he was a FA to pick him up.

I'm not sure if this was a joke or not. By definition all 3 teams can't pick him up in free agency. Which is why it's not completely stupid to trade for a player and sign him to an extension. You might lost out on that player in free agency.

However, I agree the Cubs should stay away. They seem to have a reasonable shot to sign Harper. Moving Heyward to the bench and replacing him with Harper is going to do a lot more than replacing Russell with Machado over the next X years.
   69. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: May 21, 2018 at 07:20 PM (#5676831)
Harper's great, but I don't think you want to force him to play CF.


If your starting OF combines for 150 HRs, you can punt a little bit of defense.
   70. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 21, 2018 at 07:58 PM (#5676860)
If your starting OF combines for 150 HRs, you can punt a little bit of defense.

But why do it if I can sign Machado instead, and get nearly as good a bat, and Gold Glove defense at 3B?
   71. donlock Posted: May 21, 2018 at 08:26 PM (#5676873)
No one is considering that the Orioles tried to trade Manny the last two seasons but have gotten nothing of worth in return offers. They would be ridiculed for taking a weak offer but can't make the other teams offer more. It is certainly possible MM has also asked for the moon in return for an extension (10 years at 40K?).

We just assume that he (and Harper) will make unheard of sums but nobody got long years or huge dollars this year. It would be insane to get stuck with another Chris Davis or Joey Votto deal when there is no other team offering anything like that. Do the Cubs, Yankees and Dodgers want to go off the board when they have young players to sign in the next few years as well?

Who else was bidding for Chris Davis (last year)? This year J.D Martinez? Yu Darvish? Arietta?

If NY, Chicago and LA are not leading the free agent bidding, then who has the money to pay Manny and Harper?

























   72. cardsfanboy Posted: May 21, 2018 at 08:50 PM (#5676896)
Machado is the great white whale that the Cardinals have been banking their finances on, but If the Orioles are expecting a real haul for 4 months of Machado, then I don't see it happening in a trade.
   73. Ziggy's screen name Posted: May 21, 2018 at 08:52 PM (#5676899)
There's no reason in the world for the O's not to want Machado over the next 10 years.


I can think of about 350,000,000 reasons. That's a lot of private islands Angelos could buy for himself. Maybe Machado would make more than that for him, but then again maybe not. There's a lot of value in getting to the post season, but this is also a lot of risk to take on to increase one's chances of getting there. When there are nine digits involved, feeling risk averse doesn't seem like the worst idea.
   74. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: May 21, 2018 at 09:18 PM (#5676933)
We just assume that he (and Harper) will make unheard of sums but nobody got long years or huge dollars this year.


Eric Hosmer got 8/$144 with only one team ever really showing any interest. Machado and Harper will get their unheard of sums because they are much better than any two of last year's FAs combined.
   75. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: May 21, 2018 at 09:23 PM (#5676941)
But why do it if I can sign Machado instead, and get nearly as good a bat, and Gold Glove defense at 3B?


There's no guarantee that you can. I don't think it's wise to decide that you're not going to pursue one guy because you're sure that you'll sign the other.
   76. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: May 21, 2018 at 09:25 PM (#5676946)
I can think of about 350,000,000 reasons. That's a lot of private islands Angelos could buy for himself.
Is it really, though? I haven't priced out the private island market lately, but I would have to assume it's rebounded since '08. That kind of money seems like it would probably only get you a couple-three at most.
   77. shoelesjoe Posted: May 21, 2018 at 09:28 PM (#5676950)
It’s nice that the Cubs are interested in dealing for Machado, but if the Orioles are going to trade him they need to be looking for three or four high upside guys in A Ball, 19 to 21 years old rather than established players like Happ and Russell. I’m not sure Chicago matches up in that regard.
   78. Walt Davis Posted: May 22, 2018 at 12:22 AM (#5677075)
Also the recent UZR update showed he was never as awful as we thought, and, per UZR, he's not that good this year.

The UZR "update" was an inclusion of hang time which is already incorporated into statcast. By statcast, Kemp was 18 outs below the average OF last year (next closest Melky at -13) and -23 in 2016 (Trumbo at -17). The current UZR numbers for 2016-17 probably are more in line with statcast than the Rfield numbers are but the gap to Rfield is only about 5 runs a year. That would push him from 0.7 WAR over the last 4 years to 2.7 WAR, not exactly a radical re-assessment of his value.

On recent FA classes -- oh ffs ... age matters and it was such an obvious factor the last couple of years that I suspect #71 of being a robot troll. As i thought was well known, Harper is nearly a full year younger than Bryant. The only Cubs he's significantly older than are Russell, Almora and Happ. Why wouldn't the Cubs go "off the board" to sign the guy who is younger than any of their "stars" and better than anybody except maybe Bryant? (Machado is also younger than Bryant, a bit older than Harper.) If he'll take an offer, the Cubs might indeed be better off extending Bryant for 10 years and spend the meager savings on other stuff but that's moot until Bryant agrees.

And the Votto deal? He'll have about 25 WAR under that deal by year's end and even if this is the beginning of the slide (he's on "only" a 4-WAR pace this year), he'll probably add another 5-10 WAR after this. So 30-35 WAR for $225 M -- sign me up! It may have been a bad gamble at the time (I believe I opined such) but it's worked out well.

But sure the collusion ... err, market correction ... of the past couple of offseasons may continue cuz owners are like that. Or part of this offseason's malaise was due to teams like the Yanks, Dodgers and Cubs trying to ensure they stayed below the lux tax threshold so they could make a run at Harper or Machado or Kershaw. And don't forget the Phils who are surprisingly good this year and have P to maybe even $70 M to spend.

At this stage I don't expect Harper to hit the $50 AAV mark -- maybe for a season or two. I suspect Boras's goal is $500 M total which would likely be 12 years with a good chunk of deferred money. More likely is 10/$400 with still a good amount of deferment. And of course opt-outs. He has to kinda blow the Stanton extension out of the water in terms of total value. Unless Boras and Harper are willing to do something like 4/$200+ then you might see $50 AAV.
   79. Rally Posted: May 22, 2018 at 10:08 AM (#5677150)
The Angels went through this with the Trout extension, and my logic with Trout holds with Machado: this is not just a good or even great player, this is an all-time franchise inner-circle guy.


Machado : Ripken

Mussina : Palmer
   80. McCoy Posted: May 22, 2018 at 10:13 AM (#5677153)
If Donlock is the same Donlock I've seen then he is a bit of a curmdugeon with "bit" doing a lot of work here to be kind and I see he hasn't changed his worldview much over the last 15 years. Welcome back.
   81. Nasty Nate Posted: May 22, 2018 at 10:17 AM (#5677156)
No one is considering that the Orioles tried to trade Manny the last two seasons but have gotten nothing of worth in return offers.
Because the first half of that is unlikely and the second half is not plausible.
   82. Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine Posted: May 22, 2018 at 10:28 AM (#5677170)
If NY, Chicago and LA are not leading the free agent bidding, then who has the money to pay Manny and Harper?


It is highly likely that those three teams will be a hell of a lot more motivated this winter. The Yankees and Dodgers at least had luxury tax resets they were targeting that will no longer be an issue for them. Add in the Angels who would probably love to give Trout a running mate, the Sox (Harper might be a slight upgrade on Jackie Bradley) and other teams and I think this is a different off-season we are heading for. Last year had a lot of factors not the least of which it was looking like a fairly uninspiring class of free agents.
   83. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: May 22, 2018 at 12:56 PM (#5677291)

It is highly likely that those three teams will be a hell of a lot more motivated this winter. The Yankees and Dodgers at least had luxury tax resets they were targeting that will no longer be an issue for them. Add in the Angels who would probably love to give Trout a running mate, the Sox (Harper might be a slight upgrade on Jackie Bradley) and other teams and I think this is a different off-season we are heading for. Last year had a lot of factors not the least of which it was looking like a fairly uninspiring class of free agents.


Assuming Harper played left and Benintendi moved to C that would be a drop of 26 Rdrs/yr (-2 going from Benintendi to Harper in LF, and -24 going from Bradley to Benintendi in CF) although I would assume Benintendi would get better in CF with more consistent playing time there. Anyone know how Rdrs/yr translates to WAR?
   84. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: May 22, 2018 at 06:02 PM (#5677593)
10 runs ~ 1 win

Same as for any other run to win conversion.
   85. donlock Posted: May 22, 2018 at 06:35 PM (#5677618)
I think it is still me.

I remember when the Orioles balked at giving big money to Mike Mussina and extended Cal Ripken and Brady Anderson's deals. I think that the same owner will balk at giving away the store for Manny. He also has to sign Adam Jones, Brad Brach, and Zach Britton - all free agents after the season. Then he has to deal with Johnathan Schoop who will be arb eligible next year and a free agent in 2020.

Boss Angelos is dealing with attendance woes: DC at #11, Baltimore at #23 (2017). He is in a legal battle with DC over increased broadcast revenue. He lost 1/3 of his market to DC when the Nats moved in. Nothing good has changed for O's attendance, with present urban difficulties.

I have heard nothing positive in a trade for Manny over the last two years and no one else has either. The fan base says PA should have signed Manny to a long contract earlier and he should do the same with Schoop now. The players say , "Not interested in Baltimore money, thank you." He should be worth 4 young players, worth two starting pitchers, or a replacement at short and three AA stars. Not happening, folks. Move along.

The best prediction I would make is a repeat of the Alfonso Soriano walk year in DC. Player having a wonderful year. Home team interested in a trade. No good offers. AS played out the contract and left for more money. DC team got nothing.

   86. cardsfanboy Posted: May 22, 2018 at 06:50 PM (#5677626)
DC team got nothing.


Well they did get an all star in Jordan Zimmermann, so I wouldn't say nothing, but considering that they got two compensation picks for him, and the other guy, Josh Smoker never made it to the majors, it's save to say it was just Zimmermann they got.
   87. cardsfanboy Posted: May 22, 2018 at 06:53 PM (#5677628)
Because the first half of that is unlikely and the second half is not plausible.


I'm fairly certain that there were strong rumors that the Orioles tried to trade Machado last season, but that they refused to allow any team to talk to him before the trade, which probably severely hurt the offers that the other teams were giving them.
   88. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: May 23, 2018 at 11:26 AM (#5678058)
Anyone know how Rdrs/yr translates to WAR?

10 runs ~ 1 win

Same as for any other run to win conversion.


I was getting confused with the "defensive runs saved above average". Thought that may translate differently when looking at WAR and replacement level, but now I see Rfield is just Rdrs (for current players at least).
   89. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 23, 2018 at 11:43 AM (#5678070)
There's no guarantee that you can. I don't think it's wise to decide that you're not going to pursue one guy because you're sure that you'll sign the other.

Of course. You pursue both. Harper and Machado will both be FAs.
   90. Rally Posted: May 23, 2018 at 03:15 PM (#5678326)
Well they did get an all star in Jordan Zimmermann, so I wouldn't say nothing, but considering that they got two compensation picks for him, and the other guy, Josh Smoker never made it to the majors, it's save to say it was just Zimmermann they got.


Zimmerman 19.7 WAR for the Nationals. Soriano had 8.9 after leaving Washington. Plus he cost 130 million or whatever it was. On top of that the WAR was very front loaded (half coming in his first Cub season).

Soriano 2.0 WAR in 2008. Nationals had worst record in MLB, 2 games worse than Seattle. Austin Kearns -1.2 WAR. Replace Kearns with Soriano, and the Mariners end up pairing Strasburg and King Felix. Nationals probably end up with Ackley, who didn't pan out but was very highly regarded at draft time. There is zero chance that taking away Strasburg, Nationals would have picked Trout. This is a fact because the Nats also had the #10 pick, and they passed on Trout there as well.

Nats had the #1 pick in 2010 as well and took Harper. That still happens as Soriano was awful in 2009 and would not have improved the team.

   91. Nasty Nate Posted: May 23, 2018 at 03:19 PM (#5678331)
I'm fairly certain that there were strong rumors that the Orioles tried to trade Machado last season, but that they refused to allow any team to talk to him before the trade, which probably severely hurt the offers that the other teams were giving them.
I think that's a big exaggeration. The ability to discuss an extension in advance with him is not very valuable relative to getting him on your team for 2 years of his prime (plus then also getting that ability to discuss an extension).
   92. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: May 23, 2018 at 03:56 PM (#5678365)
I was getting confused with the "defensive runs saved above average". Thought that may translate differently when looking at WAR and replacement level, but now I see Rfield is just Rdrs (for current players at least).

All of the defensive metrics are based on average. Rdrs, UZR, whatever. Because players are sorted into positions based on their fielding abilities in the minors. So the average replacement player at a position tends to be about league average on defense.

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