I might be more inclined to advocate that my team goes "nuclear" in the "actual baseball division" pre-Wild Card era. But if the Yankees should be fabulous next year, it doesn't necessarily mean that the Sox will be championship-less.

— it’s reasonable to expect bounce-back seasons from Mike Lowell and David Ortiz in particular.

I suppose that's not unreasonable, but it's also reasonable (and more likely) to expect Lowell and Ortiz to undergo further age-related decline, especially since both are coming back from serious injury. Youkilis isn't likely to repeat his 2008, and the Red Sox don't yet have a strong 4th OF to play the 40-odd games Drew will miss. Other than improvements from catcher, it's hard to see how the Red Sox don't decline on offense a little next year.

Barring a Teixeira signing, of course.

But if the Yankees should be fabulous next year, it doesn't necessarily mean that the Sox will be championship-less.

Yankees don't look that good. Outside of A-Rod, the lineup is mediocre. CC and AJ project better than Mussina & Pettite, but I don't think they project to be that much better than what those two gave the Yankees in 2008.

Marcel 2009, AJ + CC: 398 IP, 157 ER

2008 Moose + Andy: 404 IP, 178 ER.

2 wins. Big deal. If the Yankees want to finish higher than 3rd, they need Mark Teixiera. I think it's as simple as that. Even Manny Ramirez would not help as much because of the cascading defensive downgrade - he or Matsui would play left instead of Damon, and Damon would have to play center.

If they get Tex they can keep Damon's speed in left, either hope for rebound by Melky or upgrade to Cameron, move Swisher to right and move Nady to another team - he's reasonably priced so he'd have some value.

So the question the Yankee bosses have answer is this: Are you happy spending 243 million to hold off the Blue Jays (and even the Orioles if they add starting pitching and Matt Weiters becomes Oriole Jesus), or do you want to return to the days of having the best team in the division?

CC and AJ project better than Mussina & Pettite, but I don't think they project to be that much better than what those two gave the Yankees in 2008.

This keeps getting mentioned. It conveniently ignores the fact that Wang and Joba both missed a large amount of time last year, and Wang can be expected to make at least 30 starts or so(Joba will have an innings limit again). They will almost certainly be significantly better than the guys the Yankees had to use in their absence.

It also conveniently ignores that no reasonable projection would have Mussina doing that again in 2009.

I think the Yankees starting pitching will improve the team more dramatically than just 2 wins. For one, you're not going to see Rasner, Ponson, and Pavano starting over a quarter of their games next season. You will likely see Wang pitch in twice as many games next year. Joba should get a few more starts. And if Hughes and/or Kennedy start a significant number of games next year (depending on whether the Yankees sign one additional free-agent starter and, to a certain extent, injuries), you'll likely see a combined ERA significantly better than last year's 7.45. In short, all that is a Big Deal.

Otherwise, I agree for the most part.

I think the Yankees starting pitching will improve the team more dramatically than just 2 wins. For one, you're not going to see Rasner, Ponson, and Pavano starting over a quarter of their games next season. You will likely see Wang pitch in twice as many games next year. Joba should get a few more starts. And if Hughes and/or Kennedy start a significant number of games next year (depending on whether the Yankees sign one additional free-agent starter and, to a certain extent, injuries), you'll likely see a combined ERA significantly better than last year's 7.45. In short, all that is a Big Deal.

Not that I disagree with the idea that the Yankees SP will be better, but isn't this the same thing Yankees fans were saying last year at this time. It just seems the chances that any team, not just the Yankees, will be forced to give starts to dreck for some substantial portion of the season are pretty good.

Sure, the Red Sox could go nuclear, but will they go nucular?

Not that I disagree with the idea that the Yankees SP will be better, but isn't this the same thing Yankees fans were saying last year at this time.

Yes, but in every case save Joba, the counted-upon pitching didn't come through. You take a risk of injury or ineffectiveness every year with pitching, but the Yankees were singularly, not-easily-repeatably unlucky with it last year. I agree that there's more uncertainty than a team would normally want out of a starting staff as presently constructed, but I don't believe that Hughes + Kennedy will be as awful as they were last year.

Not that I disagree with the idea that the Yankees SP will be better, but isn't this the same thing Yankees fans were saying last year at this time.

Yup, and then Hughes and Kennedy both hurt themselves and dramatically underperformed their projections. But Joba starts in the rotation this year and the dreck will be better (Aceves, Coke, I think Kennedy has been relegated to dreck duty, McAllister late in the year). And I'll be pretty surprised if Sabathia and Burnett don't combine for more than 404 IP next year. Of course, the bullpen might regress (although I'm hoping Sabathia's presence makes it easier on them) and give back all the SP gains they have made in the offseason.

And the Yanks ERA+ improved 5 points from 2007 to 2008, although I'd bet that all came from the bullpen.

It also conveniently ignores that no reasonable projection would have Mussina doing that again in 2009.

It was mentioned, not ignored:
"CC and AJ project better than Mussina & Pettite"

Sure, Wang and Joba could give them a lot more innings. But Marcel is projecting 187 innings out of Burnett - that is pretty close to an ideal season from him. He doesn't have room to beat that projection, maybe 215-220 innings absolute tops. The chance that he pulls a Pavano on the Yankees is very, very real.

Sure, the starting pitching is improved, but not enough to make the Yankees anything near a favorite. While they certainly have a chance to make the playoffs or even finish first, I have a hard time seeing them as having more than the 3rd best chance in their own division of doing so. This is a far cry from the dominance of the 1996-2004 teams.

It was mentioned, not ignored:

My reading of it is that it compares the projection of these two guys in 2009 to the production of two other guys from 2008. I dispute that projection of a different year should be compared to production in this case.

While they certainly have a chance to make the playoffs or even finish first, I have a hard time seeing them as having more than the 3rd best chance in their own division of doing so.

I agree, but I think this has more to do with their lineup being average outside of A-rod and potentially the middle infield than their starting pitching not being improved.

Yankees don't look that good. Outside of A-Rod, the lineup is mediocre.

Uhhh. They're all mediocre if Jeter, Posada, Cano and Matsui all have worst-case-scenario-type seasons.

Unless you mean that about the lineup as a whole outside of A-Rod, in which case I agree ...

Sure, the Red Sox could go nuclear, but will they go nucular?

Well they have Wakefield, so they will go "knuck"ular.

Sure, the Red Sox could go nuclear, but will they go nucular?

Well they have Wakefield, so they will go "knuck"ular.

They also have Bay, so they could go Canuck-ular.

Youk-u-lar?

My reading of it is that it compares the projection of these two guys in 2009 to the production of two other guys from 2008. I dispute that projection of a different year should be compared to production in this case.

That would be a reasonable objection if ARoM were arguing that the Yankees shouldn't have signed CC and AJ. Then you could say that they are a big upgrade over the projected 2009 value of Mussina and Pettitte. And you'd be right.

But he didn't say that. He said that AJ and CC are replacing Mussina and Pettitte in the rotation, and they don't project to be a particularly large upgrade.

Now, one can argue that the rest of the rotation - Joba/Wang/X - will be better than the non-Mussina/Pettitte pitchers were in 2009, and that's a fair point. But that's not really an upgrade created by AJ and CC - they're needed to replace the full time 1st and 2nd starters from last season.

It also conveniently ignores that no reasonable projection would have Mussina doing that again in 2009 ... I dispute that projection of a different year should be compared to production in this case.

You're trying to answer a different question than the one which was posed. If you want to ask, "Should the Yankees have replaced Pettitte and Mussina with C.C. and A.J.?", then you compare 2009 projections to 2009 projections.

But the question that's asked is, "Will the Yankees be better than they were last year now that they have C.C. and A.J. in the rotation?" So, you take the 2008 performance as a baseline and see if the new Yankees will outperform that baseline. In that case, you do want to compare the baseline (Moose and Pettitte in 2008) with the new pitchers' 2009 projections.

Edit: Beaten by MCoA. And by a whole seven minutes!