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Friday, February 08, 2013

Darowski: Beyond ERA+: Why Rick Reuschel Had Hall of Fame Value

No, it ain’t Eating Record Amounts+, dopey…for the IFOCE HOF isn’t even completed yet.

According to WAR and the Hall of Stats, Rick Reuschel was a top 100 player. That was—and still is—a revelation. When I create lists of the best players outside of the Hall, I still hesitate a bit before listing Reuschel’s name. So, what gives?

...So, here are some reasons why Rick Reuschel is better than we seem to think…

  1- Part of it is unexplainable. Reuschel’s raw numbers are actually nearly Hall-worthy. He had a .528 winning percentage and 114 ERA+. Nolan Ryan had a .526 winning percentage and an ERA+ of 112 (I understand Ryan pitched longer, but still… this is a little surprising).
  2- He played for some pretty terrible teams. His teams combined for a winning percentage of .463. This doesn’t lead to a lot of wins, awards, or publicity.
  3- He didn’t give up a lot of unearned runs. He was right at the league average. Considering the defense he played in front of, you’d think he would have given up more. If looking at things in terms of runs allowed rather than earned runs allowed, Reuschel would look much better.
  4- He played in front of some horrendous defenses. Phil Niekro must sympathize with him. If you think about how bad his defenses were and how many unearned runs they must have led to, you realize that the actual number of unearned runs Reuschel allowed was probably unbelievably low. He helped this by not walking many players and not allowing many home runs. Those are easy ways to be beaten and Reuschel didn’t let his opponents do it.

I don’t think I’ve ever publicly said “Rick Reuschel should be in the Hall of Fame.” I was still uncomfortable with why his WAR-based numbers looked so good. But now I know. And I think I’m ready to say it.

Rick Reuschel should be in the Hall of Fame. He wasn’t flashy. He wasn’t famous. But he provided more value than the average Hall of Famer. That, to me, makes him worthy of the Hall of Fame.

Repoz Posted: February 08, 2013 at 10:55 PM | 110 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: sabermetrics

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Page 2 of 2 pages  < 1 2
   101. bobm Posted: February 10, 2013 at 08:29 PM (#4366795)
From 1916 to 2012, Complete Game Shutout, (requiring H>=12), sorted by most recent date

                                                                                                                                           
Rk               Player          Date  Tm Opp   Rslt  AppDec   IP  H R ER BB SO HR Pit Str GSc BF AB 2B 3B IBB HBP SH SF GDP SB CS PO BK WP
1       Dennis Martinez    1998-06-02 ATL MIL W  9-0 SHO9  W  9.0 12 0  0  1  3  0 106  71  65 36 35  1  0   0   0  0  0   2  0  0  0  0  0
2         Rick Reuschel    1974-06-20 CHC PIT W  3-0 SHO9  W  9.0 12 0  0  0  7          0  70 37 37  3  0   0   0  0  0   2  0  0  0  0  0
3          Stan Bahnsen    1973-06-21 CHW OAK W  2-0 SHO9  W  9.0 12 0  0  1  6          0  68 37 36  1  0   0   0  0  0   1  0  1  0  0  0
4          Mudcat Grant    1964-07-15 MIN WSA W  6-0 SHO9  W  9.0 13 0  0  1  6          0  66 39 38  0  0   0   0  0  0   2  0  0  0  0  0
5            Bob Friend    1959-08-24 PIT SFG W  6-0 SHO9  W  9.0 12 0  0  1  8          0  70 39 38  0  0   0   0  0  0   1  0  0  0  0  0
6          Lew Burdette    1959-05-26 MLN PIT W  1-0 SHO13 W 13.0 12 0  0  0  2          0  85 47 47  0  0   0   0  0  0   3  0  0  0  0  0
7    Fritz Ostermueller    1947-05-17 PIT BRO W  4-0 SHO9  W  9.0 12 0  0  2  1  0 104  66  62 38 35  0  0   0   1  0  0   4  0  0  0  0  1
8              Bill Lee 1938-09-17(1) CHC NYG         W  4-0  9.0 13 0  0  1  6          0  66 38 36  1  0   0   0  1               0  0  0
9            Dizzy Dean    1937-04-20 STL CIN         W  2-0 10.0 13 0  0  2  6          0  70 44 41  4  0   0   0  1               0  0  0
10          Tom Zachary    1935-05-16 BRO PIT         W  2-0 13.0 12 0  0  3  1          0  81 53 50  2  0   0   0  0               0  0  0
11       Hal Schumacher    1934-07-19 NYG CIN         W  4-0  9.0 12 0  0  0  2          0  65 35 35  0  0   0   0  0               0  0  0
12          Milt Gaston 1928-07-10(2) WSH CLE         W  9-0  9.0 14 0  0  2  2          0  59 41 38  2  1   0   0  1               0  0  0
13         George Smith 1921-08-12(2) PHI BSN         W  4-0  9.0 12 0  0  1  2          0  64 38 37  0   0  0               0  0  0
14         Duster Mails 1921-07-10(1) CLE PHA         W 10-0  9.0 12 0  0  2  4          0  65 37 35  0  0   0   0  0               0  0  1
15          Leon Cadore    1920-09-04 BRO BSN         W 10-0  9.0 12 0  0  0  1          0  64 34 34  1  1   0   0  0               0  0  0
16          Rube Benton    1920-08-28 NYG CIN         W  4-0  9.0 12 0  0  1  3          0  65 37 34  1  0   0   2  0               0  0  0
17          Bob Shawkey    1920-06-13 NYY CLE         W 14-0  9.0 12 0  0  2  3          0  64 39 37  4  0   0   0  0               0  0  0
18          Pol Perritt    1917-09-14 NYG BSN         W  5-0  9.0 12 0  0  1  5          0  67 37 35  2      0   1                  0  0  0
19           Ernie Koob    1916-07-14 SLB BOS         T  0-0 17.0 14 0  0  3  3          0  99 69 61  3      0   2                  3  0  0






   102. booond Posted: February 10, 2013 at 09:01 PM (#4366820)
The dozen-hit CG/SHO went the way of the Dodo once relief pitchers arrived. Probably the only reason Martinez was allowed to finish was the big lead and the lack of pitches on his arm.
   103. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: February 10, 2013 at 09:32 PM (#4366828)
12 Milt Gaston 1928-07-10(2

Holy crap! 14 hits, including 2 doubles and a triple, and 2 walks. 59 has to be the lowest Game Score ever recorded in a CGShO, right?
   104. phatj Posted: February 10, 2013 at 10:19 PM (#4366845)
On the other side, Ernie Koob's GS of 99 in a start in which he allowed 14 hits (3 doubles) and 3 walks, and struck out just 3 is fairly amazing. Going 17 innings helps, it would seem.
   105. bobm Posted: February 10, 2013 at 11:06 PM (#4366853)
[103] From 1916 to 2012, Complete Game Shutout, (requiring game_score<=64 and IPouts>=24), sorted by smallest game_score

                                                                                                                                  
Rk               Player          Date  Tm Opp   Rslt  IP  H R ER BB SO HR Pit Str GSc BF AB 2B 3B IBB HBP SH SF GDP SB CS PO BK WP
1           Milt Gaston 1928-07-10(2) WSH CLE W  9-0 9.0 14 0  0  2  2          0  59 41 38  2  1   0   0  1               0  0  0
                                                                                                                                  
2    Fritz Ostermueller    1947-05-17 PIT BRO W  4-0 9.0 12 0  0  2  1  0 104  66  62 38 35  0  0   0   1  0  0   4  0  0  0  0  1
3       Burleigh Grimes 1929-06-29(1) PIT CIN W  3-0 9.0 11 0  0  4  1          0  62 39 34  0  0   0   0  1               0  0  0
                                                                                                                                  
4           Wes Ferrell    1931-07-29 CLE WSH W  6-0 9.0 10 0  0  5  1          0  63 42 37  1  0   0   0  0               0  0  0
5         Les Sweetland    1929-08-02 PHI PIT W  2-0 9.0 11 0  0  2  0          0  63 39 36  2  1   0   0  1               0  0  0
                                                                                                                                  
6             Rich Beck    1965-09-19 NYY DET W  3-0 9.0  9 0  0  5  0          0  64 37 31  1  0   1   0  1  0   3  0  1  0  0  0
7        Connie Marrero    1952-08-03 WSH CHW T  0-0 8.0  8 0  0  3  1          0  64 32 29  1  0   0   0  0  0   1  0  1  0  0  0
8            Vern Olsen    1942-07-14 CHC NYG W  3-0 9.0 11 0  0  3  2          0  64 39 36  2  0   0   0  0               0  0  0
9          George Smith 1921-08-12(2) PHI BSN W  4-0 9.0 12 0  0  1  2          0  64 38       37   0   0  0               0  0  0
10          Leon Cadore    1920-09-04 BRO BSN W 10-0 9.0 12 0  0  0  1          0  64 34 34  1  1   0   0  0               0  0  0
11            Carl Mays    1920-08-23 NYY DET W 10-0 9.0 10 0  0  3  0          0  64 38 35  0  1   0   0  0               0  0  0
12          Bob Shawkey    1920-06-13 NYY CLE W 14-0 9.0 12 0  0  2  3          0  64 39 37  4  0   0   0  0               0  0  0


   106. bobm Posted: February 10, 2013 at 11:08 PM (#4366854)
From 1966 to 2012, Complete Game Shutout, (requiring game_score<=67 and IPouts>=24), sorted by smallest game_score

                                                                                                                               
Rk            Player          Date  Tm Opp   Rslt  IP  H R ER BB SO HR Pit Str GSc BF AB 2B 3B IBB HBP SH SF GDP SB CS PO BK WP
1    Dennis Martinez    1998-06-02 ATL MIL W  9-0 9.0 12 0  0  1  3  0 106  71  65 36 35  1  0   0   0  0  0   2  0  0  0  0  0
2        Ed Figueroa    1974-07-12 CAL BOS W  7-0 9.0 10 0  0  2  0          0  65 35 33  2  0   0   0  0  0   3  0  1  0  0  0
3      Rick Reuschel 1973-09-15(2) CHC NYM W  7-0 9.0 10 0  0  2  0          0  65 37 35  0  0   0   0  0  0   2  0  0  0  0  0
                                                                                                                               
4       Carlos Silva    2004-08-03 MIN ANA W 10-0 9.0 11 0  0  2  3  0  99  67  66 35 33  0  0   0   0  0  0   4  0  0  0  0  0
5         Tommy John    1976-09-14 LAD CIN W  9-0 9.0 10 0  0  4  3          0  66 39 35  1  0   0   0  0  0   2  2  0  0  0  1
6    Dave Freisleben    1976-05-29 SDP SFG W  4-0 9.0 10 0  0  4  3          0  66 38 34  1  0   1   0  0  0   3  0  0  0  1  0
7       Curt Simmons    1967-08-09 CAL NYY W  7-0 9.0 10 0  0  2  1          0  66 35 33  1  0   0   0  0  0   4  0  0  0  0  0
                                                                                                                               
8      Rick Lysander 1983-08-01(2) MIN CAL W  7-0 9.0 11 0  0  3  5          0  67 38 35  0  0   0   0  0  0   3  0  0  0  0  1
9       Denny McLain    1971-08-13 WSA CAL W  4-0 9.0 10 0  0  2  2          0  67 39 36  0  0   0   1  0  0   1  1  0  0  0  0
10      Marty Pattin    1971-06-26 MIL MIN W  5-0 9.0 11 0  0  0  2          0  67 36 36  2  0   0   0  0  0   2  0  0  0  0  0
11          Jim Kaat    1971-04-11 MIN CHW W  6-0 9.0 11 0  0  1  3          0  67 36 35  2  0   0   0  0  0   2  0  0  0  0  0


   107. bobm Posted: February 10, 2013 at 11:10 PM (#4366855)
From 1916 to 2012, Complete Game Shutout, (requiring GIDP>=5), sorted by smallest game_score

                                                                                                                              
Rk            Player          Date  Tm Opp   Rslt  IP H R ER BB SO HR Pit Str GSc BF AB 2B 3B IBB HBP SH SF GDP SB CS PO BK WP
1       Gene Bearden    1948-08-05 CLE WSH W  3-0 9.0 6 0  0  4  1          0  72 32 27  0  0   0   1  0  0   6  0  0  0  0  0
                                                                                                                              
2         Bob Friend    1962-07-13 PIT HOU W  4-0 9.0 8 0  0  0  4          0  75 31 31  0  0   0   0  0  0   5  0  0  0  0  0
                                                                                                                              
3        Tom Glavine    1997-04-18 ATL COL W 14-0 9.0 8 0  0  1  6          0  76 32 31  0  0   0   0  0  0   5  0  0  0  0  0
4          Jim Hearn 1954-08-01(2) NYG CIN W  5-0 9.0 6 0  0  3  4          0  76 31 28  0  0   0   0  0  0   5  0  0  0  0  0
                                                                                                                              
5      Larry Dierker    1972-05-05 HOU CHC W  3-0 9.0 5 0  0  3  3          0  77 31 27  0  0   0   1  0  0   5  0  0  0  0  0
                                                                                                                              
6       Warren Spahn    1964-05-05 MLN NYM W  6-0 9.0 4 0  0  2  2          0  79 28 26  0  0   0   0  0  0   5  0  0  0  0  0
                                                                                                                              
7    Armando Reynoso    1997-06-05 NYM FLA W  6-0 9.0 5 0  0  1  4  0 100  65  80 30 28  0  0   0   1  0  0   5  0  0  0  0  0
                                                                                                                              
8        Orval Grove    1946-08-03 CHW WSH W  1-0 9.0 3 0  0  1  2          0  82 27 26  0  0   0   0  0  0   5  0  0  0  0  0
                                                                                                                              
9        Ken McBride    1963-08-23 LAA WSA W 17-0 9.0 3 0  0  3  6          0  84 30 25  0  0   0   2  0  0   5  0  0  0  0  0
   108. bobm Posted: February 10, 2013 at 11:17 PM (#4366856)
{104] On the other side, Ernie Koob's GS of 99 in a start in which he allowed 14 hits (3 doubles) and 3 walks, and struck out just 3 is fairly amazing. Going 17 innings helps, it would seem.

2 hit batsman does not help, but 3 pickoffs does not hurt.

From 1916 to 2012, Complete Game Shutout, (requiring baserunners_allow>=16)

                                                                                                                             
Rk          Player          Date  Tm Opp   Rslt   IP  H R ER BB BR SO HR GSc BF AB 2B 3B IBB HBP SH SF ROE GDP SB CS PO BK WP
1       Ernie Koob    1916-07-14 SLB BOS T  0-0 17.0 14 0  0  3 19  3  0  99 69 61  3      0   2                      3  0  0

2     J.R. Richard    1976-07-06 HOU NYM W  1-0 10.0  8 0  0 10 18  7  0  73 45 34  2  0   0   0  1  0   0   2  0  1  0  0  2

3    Jack Harshman    1954-08-13 CHW DET W  1-0 16.0  9 0  0  7 17 12  0 109 65 57  2  0   0   0  1  0   1   0  0  0  0  0  0

4     Marty Pattin    1973-09-24 BOS DET W 14-0  9.0  9 0  0  5 16  5  0  69 40 35  0  0   0   0  0  0   2   3  0  0  0  0  0
4    Bill Stoneman    1971-09-22 MON PHI W  2-0  9.0  8 0  0  8 16 11  0  74 41 33  1  0   0   0  0  0   0   1  0  1  0  0  1
4      Lefty Gomez    1941-08-01 NYY SLB W  9-0  9.0  5 0  0 11 16  4  0  70 42 31  0  0   0   0  0                   0  0  1
4      Milt Gaston 1928-07-10(2) WSH CLE W  9-0  9.0 14 0  0  2 16  2  0  59 41 38  2  1   0   0  1                   0  0  0
   109. zenbitz Posted: February 10, 2013 at 11:42 PM (#4366863)
Harvey's I don't know what SOSH was on about. It was clear to me you were speaking generally about the 74 Cubbies
   110. Walt Davis Posted: February 11, 2013 at 12:04 AM (#4366870)
Harvey's I don't know what SOSH was on about. It was clear to me you were speaking generally about the 74 Cubbies

Can we leave this crap behind? Let me play arbiter.

HW was commenting on the general state of the 74 Cubs defense but threw this in:

i don't know how you consider all of this and everything others has posted and then point to rick being nice in a quote and say that maybe the defense wasn't bad.

The Reuschel quote in question, the quote in which he was being a nice guy, was about a single game -- that 12-hit shutout. SoSH had pointed out that 12 hits does not, in and of itself, prove that the defense was bad that day.

If HW hadn't included the bit about the Reuschel quote, I assume SoSH would not have thought the post was directed at him. But nobody was saying the Reuschel quote meant the 74 Cubs played good defense on the whole so I'm not sure how that bit got into HW's post which, otherwise, seemed to be about the 74 Cubs as a whole.

So just a simple misunderstanding of how the Reuschel quote was being interpreted. Personally I'm guessing he was being sarcastic.

But maybe not. Looking at the box score, 6 of the 12 hits are coded as line drives. They appear to have been 4 for 16 on GB ... although I think that means I missed a hit so it must be 5 for 17. Anyway, that's a perfectly cromulent performance on the GB. Possibly some of those line drives should have been caught by the OF (Williams, Monday, Cardenal).

Who knows how good that coding is but if you give up 6 LDs you're usually gonna give up about 5 hits; you give up 17 GB and you're usually gonna give up about 5 hits. The 12th hit was apparently a flyball double (maybe should have been caught). So the Cub D seems to have done OK that day and, if those line drives were real line drives, some of those GB might have been hit pretty hard too suggesting they did play good defense.

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