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Tuesday, July 16, 2013

Paul Daugherty: Brandon Phillips is MVP, not Joey Votto

“Cincinnati is depressing. It’s like stepping back in time.”

Not sure why this is even a topic for debate. I like Joey Votto as much as the next guy. He’s having a good year, emphasis on good. His production isnt carrying The Club. His defense isnt what it has been and needs to be. Todd Frazier has more RBI. Zack Cozart has more doubles. When you are 4th on your own team in runs driven in, you are not often its most valuable player. Phillips has been golden at 2B, as usual. His BA w/RISP is .404, 5th in the NL. OK?

Saber-stats are useful. They add to the knowledge and the debate. They are no substitute for actually watching and/or listening to every game. Occasionally, they WAR me out. For whatever reason, Votto is not yet driving the ball the way he did, pre-knee. The 18 doubles speak to that.

If DBaker wanted to move Votto to No. 2 in the lineup, all complaints would cease. He’d get more ABs. With Choo in front of him, he’d see better pitches. With BP behind him, doing the heavy RBI lifting, he’d score more. Perceptionally speaking, his numbers could stay the same and still look a lot better, batting 2nd instead of 3rd.

It won’t happen of course.

* SPEAKING OF RISP… The Cardinals kill it, and they did again last night, on ESPN. They’re hitting .337 with runners poised to score. They’re hitting .328 with two outs and runners poised to score. The Reds numbers are .252 and .194.

Repoz Posted: July 16, 2013 at 08:08 AM | 45 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: reds, sabermetrics

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   1. JJ1986 Posted: July 16, 2013 at 08:36 AM (#4495516)
Stats don't tell you who the MVP is. RBI tell you the MVP is.
   2. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 16, 2013 at 08:46 AM (#4495518)
I don't understand this line of reasoning in Cincy of all places, a place that reveres the "hit king", a man who never had even a 90 RBI season. WHY WASN'T PETE CLUTCH?
   3. Bug Selig Posted: July 16, 2013 at 08:53 AM (#4495519)
At least the 4th time we've seen the exact same article by the exact same guy.
   4. Rants Mulliniks Posted: July 16, 2013 at 08:54 AM (#4495520)
I was all set to criticize him, but he's talking Reds MVP, not league. I didn't realize Philips was hitting .404 with RISP, and no its not necessarily repeatable in the second half, but it did happen, and he does play great D....... **checks B-R to find that BP has an OPS+ of 97 and is 1 for 3 on the bases**

OK, this guy's an idiot. Votto has been disappointing, as much as I hate to say it about a guy who has 4.3 WAR at the break. Last year he lost his home run power, and this year he seems to have lost his gap power. His line drive rate is a career high (and otherwordly, no?) 30%, yet he only has 19 doubles.
   5. Greg K Posted: July 16, 2013 at 09:05 AM (#4495522)
I think it's less about runs batted in, or shoddy defence at first base (this is the first I've heard of that), than it is anti-Canadian racism.

I actually found out last week that a kid I used to hang out with at the cottage played with Votto in little league, I think on some kind of Ontario team. Apparently at that time he wasn't noticeably better than anyone else on the team (I'd assume few of whom went on to have pro-careers, and certainly none major leaguers). Though I got this information from the guy's dad who didn't seem fully aware of how good Votto is presently. Perhaps he had difficulty driving in runs back then too.
   6. Ok, Griffey's Dunn (Nothing Iffey About Griffey) Posted: July 16, 2013 at 09:06 AM (#4495523)
Aaaaaa! Not this again!

With runners in scoring position, 124 PA's, he's hitting great.

In the other 264, Brandon's "hitting" .212/.254/.352. So, for just over 2/3's of his pa's, Brandon is hitting like Drew Stubbs last year. This is an MVP? If he didn't have Choo and Votto in front of him (ie. many fewer PA's with RISP) Daugherty and his ilk would be ready to run BP out of town because they'd recognize that he's mostly hitting like ####. And, I like Brandon! He's a good player, but this MVP stuff is just crazy. The other Reds reporters are starting to say the same thing.

Personally, I'd go with Choo as Reds MVP. He's come in and survived playing CF when everyone said there was little chance he'd be able to stick there, and he's challenging Votto for the league lead in BB, OB%, times on base, etc. He's hit even better than anyone could have hoped. I just wish he'd hit a few of his HR with men on base. Seriously, 13 solo home runs for Choo. Flukey.

Actually, the Reds top 3 HR hitters (Bruce, Votto, Choo) have combined 47 HR, and only 8 (I think, w/o checking again today) have been with men on base.

   7. hokieneer Posted: July 16, 2013 at 09:20 AM (#4495529)
* SPEAKING OF RISP… The Cardinals kill it, and they did again last night, on ESPN. They’re hitting .337 with runners poised to score. They’re hitting .328 with two outs and runners poised to score. The Reds numbers are .252 and .194.


I've been waiting for this to "even out" all year.


I know the reds are 4th in the NL in RS and raw OPS, but watching them play I'm surprised they ever score a run. Outside of Choo and Votto the lineup is jut a pain to watch. Can't believe I'm hinging my playoff hopes on Ryan ####### Ludwick.
   8. Greg K Posted: July 16, 2013 at 09:23 AM (#4495531)
I know the reds are 4th in the NL in RS and raw OPS, but watching them play I'm surprised they ever score a run. Outside of Choo and Votto the lineup is jut a pain to watch. Can't believe I'm hinging my playoff hopes on Ryan ####### Ludwick.

Bruce looks like he's having a good year, in his usual hot and cold fashion.

I would think it would be very difficult (if not impossible) to find a "bad" offence in the history of baseball that had two .400 OBP guys as their top two in plate appearances.
   9. hokieneer Posted: July 16, 2013 at 09:29 AM (#4495534)
Bruce looks like he's having a good year, in his usually hot and cold fashion.


The reason I didn't include Bruce has nothing to do with his performance. I've finally came to the realization that he's a hacker, and that's all he ever will be. His K% and BB% have been trending the wrong way each of the last 4 years. I'm at the point where I have accepted it and never expect him to improve, so it's a little disheartening for a fan that's been watching him 6-7 years. Still, not saying I don't want a good defensive RF that has 35+ HR power on my team, just have to make it past the "acceptance" phase.
   10. TDF, situational idiot Posted: July 16, 2013 at 09:41 AM (#4495543)
He’s having a good year, emphasis on good. His production isnt carrying The Club
Yea, that Votto is a slug.

He's:
8th in the league in BA
1st in OBP
2nd in OPS
3rd in OPS+
And maybe, just maybe, many of his percieved offensive problems are because he's been walked 40% more often than any NLer not named "Choo".
Todd Frazier has more RBI.
Of the 3 guys hitting in front of Votto, one has a .271 OBP and another is .207 (Fun fact: The the Reds trail the league-leading Giants by 100 pts. of OBP in the #2 slot. Just to get to league average, the #2 hitters would have to reach base 22 consecutive PA). Of the three guys hitting in front of Frazier, none has a OBP below .320 and one has been on base 26 more times than any other non-Red (I wonder who that is...)
His defense isnt what it has been and needs to be.
First, he's slightly below average by UZR -0.5) but clearly above by DRS (+8). Second, if 1B defense is critical to your team you have bigger problems than 1B defense.
With BP behind him, doing the heavy RBI lifting, he’d score more.
Isn't it this guy's job to watch the Reds? There has been one game this year BP has hit in front of Votto - one.
If DBaker wanted to move Votto to No. 2 in the lineup, all complaints would cease.
Please. You're Paul Daugherty; you'd ##### about a blowjob.
   11. McCoy Posted: July 16, 2013 at 09:49 AM (#4495547)
Second, if 1B defense is critical to your team you have bigger problems than 1B defense.

Tell that to the John Olerud era Mets. A good first baseman makes everybody in the infield better.


Of the 3 guys hitting in front of Votto, one has a .271 OBP and another is .207

That's Dusty for you.
   12. Red Menace Posted: July 16, 2013 at 09:55 AM (#4495552)
Part of me is enjoying that in Cincinnati a flashy, African American player is being celebrated over a quiet professional who is white.
   13. TDF, situational idiot Posted: July 16, 2013 at 09:56 AM (#4495553)
Of the 3 guys hitting in front of Votto, one has a .271 OBP and another is .207

That's Dusty for you.
To be fair, most managers are going to hit the pitcher 9th.

But another fun fact when looking things up: The Red's #2 hitters have a .271 OBP; the Dodger's #9 hitters have a .267 OBP. And another: There are 4 team hitting slots in the NL worse than the Red's #2 (looking only at slots 1-8): Washington's #7 and Pittsburg, Milwaukee, and the Mets #8.
   14. TJ Posted: July 16, 2013 at 10:10 AM (#4495570)
So, since BP is only hitting when runners are in scoring position, shouldn't Choo and Votto (we can ignore Cozart and his .268 OBP) be getting all the credit for getting into scoring position in the first place, thus saving Phillips from a Mario Mendoza-like overall season? Votto is leading Phillips in homers, doubles, Isolated Power, OPS+, and pretty much every other major stat but one- RBI. But Brandon Phillips is your MVP because of RBI?

More from the same Paul Daugherty article of dribble, only about PEDs...

"Young stars today have the benefit of education and hindsight. They know what PED use can do to their bodies. They’ve seen the Elba where Clemens, Palmeiro, Sosa etc reside. They look at A-Rod, they see a formerly great player. Also, a punch line. They don’t want to be that guy. In a cynical, vigilant and jaded time, there are no whispers of PED use among the game’s brightest young stars."

- Ryan Braun was 28 and one of the biggest stars in the game when his alleged PED use first came to light. Jesus Montero and Yasmani Grandal are two top prospects who don't seem fazed by the idea of being on baseball's Elba...

"More often than not, today’s juicers are fringe players, young and old. Do we really care if Francisco Cervelli serves a 50-game suspension?"

- I wouldn't call Nelson Cruz a "fringe player", nor would I call Melky Cabrera or Everth Cabrera ones, either. I wouldn't call Jhonny Peralta a "fringe player", and we Tiger fans care if Peralta gets popped for 50 games since we have no other SS worthy of the name...

Paul Daugherty, seven-time Ohio columnist of the year. I think Ohio needs to find better columnists...
   15. AROM Posted: July 16, 2013 at 10:43 AM (#4495602)
His BA w/RISP is .404, 5th in the NL. OK?
Saber-stats are useful. They add to the knowledge and the debate. They are no substitute for actually watching and/or listening to every game.


For Phillips, you don't need to use stats to see he's hitting so well with RISP. You can see it in his eyes.
   16. Rants Mulliniks Posted: July 16, 2013 at 10:44 AM (#4495603)
You could probably buy Elba for the value of a big FA contract.
   17. AROM Posted: July 16, 2013 at 10:51 AM (#4495610)
Wow, I didn't realize how unimpressive Phillips stats were this year other than RBI. .320 OBP, only a .413 SLG. Both Choo and Votto have better OBP than Phillips has slugging. A real Tommy Herr 1985 season.

Batting runs has Phillips at +0, Votto +27. But it's fair to give credit for the situational hitting. Phillips is +8 using RE24, which accounts for hitting well in run scoring situations. By that same stat though, Votto is +35.
   18. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: July 16, 2013 at 11:25 AM (#4495657)
right now the only thing Brandon is bringing to the table is lots and lots of defense. his play there continues to be superlative

otherwise, he's a cipher and anyone WATCHING him play would see that

   19. Ok, Griffey's Dunn (Nothing Iffey About Griffey) Posted: July 16, 2013 at 11:35 AM (#4495673)
otherwise, he's a cipher and anyone WATCHING him play would see that


Starting June 1: 34g, 31-136, .228/.289/.309 10bb, 2 2b, 3 hr, 9 R, but, 30 RBI
   20. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: July 16, 2013 at 11:37 AM (#4495680)
You could probably buy Elba for the value of a big FA contract.

Idris? His price will probably go up post-Pacific Rim.
   21. Ok, Griffey's Dunn (Nothing Iffey About Griffey) Posted: July 16, 2013 at 11:41 AM (#4495687)
One other thing on this:

Brandon has 32 more RBI than Votto. Half of that RBI difference has come in bases loaded situations. Brandon has 14 PA with the bases loaded and 18RBI in that situation, Votto's had 6 PA and only 2 RBI. That's pretty much the entire basis for Brandon as team MVP over Votto, the fact that his teammates (ie. Votto) get on base so much for him.
   22. They paved Misirlou, put up a parking lot Posted: July 16, 2013 at 11:53 AM (#4495700)
A real Tommy Herr 1985 season.


I know you were specifically referencing the low SLP, but Phillips wishes he were having a Tommy Herr season. Herr was a legitimately good hitter that year, 123 OPS+, 6.0 oWAR. Phillips is at 97 and 1.2 (on pace for about a 2.0)

With BP behind him, doing the heavy RBI lifting, he’d score more.

Isn't it this guy's job to watch the Reds? There has been one game this year BP has hit in front of Votto - one.


Wow! That is really something. Votto has batter 3rd 94 times. Phillips 4th 85 times.
   23. Ok, Griffey's Dunn (Nothing Iffey About Griffey) Posted: July 16, 2013 at 12:00 PM (#4495709)
His K% and BB% have been trending the wrong way each of the last 4 years


Bruce's BB% increased each year until 2012. He was up over 10% in 2010 and 2011, dropped just under 10% in 2012, and his walk rate has plummetted this year (6.7%). On the flip side, it looks like he's going to increase his career high in 2b, HR(this will be close) and RBI yet again.

In this lineup, with tons of guys on base in front of him, hitting 5th, with 4 fairly easy outs behind him, he probably should be hacking.
   24. McCoy Posted: July 16, 2013 at 12:04 PM (#4495715)
Idris? His price will probably go up post-Pacific Rim.

Doubt it. So far he hasn't been box-office gold. Could probably get him pretty cheap.
   25. salvomania Posted: July 16, 2013 at 12:29 PM (#4495752)
They’re hitting .337 with runners poised to score. They’re hitting .328 with two outs and runners poised to score.


So what's that? Batting average with RPTS?

Sort of similar to RISP?
   26. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: July 16, 2013 at 12:39 PM (#4495770)
Of the 3 guys hitting in front of Votto, one has a .271 OBP and another is .207


dear God in heaven, why is Cozart allowed to bat 2nd????

   27. McCoy Posted: July 16, 2013 at 12:42 PM (#4495775)
Dusty, clap, clap, clap-clap-clap, Baker.
   28. KT's Pot Arb Posted: July 16, 2013 at 12:56 PM (#4495801)
Isn't Brandon supposed to have more RBI's given he has more RBI opportunities that Votto?

Why give a guy an MVP just for doing his damn job!
   29. hokieneer Posted: July 16, 2013 at 01:48 PM (#4495867)
In this lineup, with tons of guys on base in front of him, hitting 5th, with 4 fairly easy outs behind him, he probably should be hacking.


This is a very good point that reminds me of his ab against Romo last year in game 5 of the NLDS. With the walking decomposing corpse of Scott Rolen on deck, Bruce did everything he could to try and win/tie the game for the Reds in that ab. He was practically Votto with the way he was flipping those outside pitches foul. It was apparent he wasn't counting on Rolen to pick him up.
   30. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: July 16, 2013 at 03:49 PM (#4496015)
I don't understand this line of reasoning in Cincy of all places, a place that reveres the "hit king", a man who never had even a 90 RBI season. WHY WASN'T PETE CLUTCH?

Daugherty, and other elements of the Cincy media, pigeonhole guys based on position and batting order slot. Votto is paid to drive in runs; he's not doing so as much as Phillips. Don't bother looking at the number of baserunners. Perez was paid to drive runners in. Rose was simply expected to get on base.
   31. TDF, situational idiot Posted: July 16, 2013 at 04:27 PM (#4496076)
I'd also like to make this point:

Maybe the reason Votto doesn't have as many RBI as Phillips is that not only is Cozart not getting on base, but he's erased Choo an additional 12 times by GIDP.

EDIT to re-state: (after looking again at BBRef) The .271 OBP in the #2 slot also doesn't include the 13 sac bunts, which is more than 4 entire AL teams. Oh, and Votto might score more runs if BP didn't ground into 11 DPs himself.
   32. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: July 16, 2013 at 04:38 PM (#4496095)
Idris? His price will probably go up post-Pacific Rim.

Doubt it. So far he hasn't been box-office gold. Could probably get him pretty cheap.
Prices have risen across the board since he canceled the Apocalypse.
   33. TDF, situational idiot Posted: July 16, 2013 at 04:43 PM (#4496103)
The Reds lead the league in SH from the #2 spot, and are 2nd in GIDP. But when you add the two together, they've given away more outs than any team in the league by a pretty wide margin - and again, those 26 additional outs aren't counted in the league-low OBP from that spot. (For reference, the 13 sac bunts alone is more extra outs than the total SH+GIDP for 9 NL teams)

But Votto isn't getting enough RBI because he's a bum.
   34. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: July 16, 2013 at 05:11 PM (#4496132)
With BP behind him, doing the heavy RBI lifting, he’d score more.

How much more is he supposed to score? He's third in the league in runs, 6 behind the league leader.
   35. Walt Davis Posted: July 16, 2013 at 06:32 PM (#4496200)
he's been walked 40% more often than any NLer not named "Choo".

Unintentionally, and understandably, you've highlighted a major source of the misperception. "Votto has been walked" is passive -- the walk is not Votto's doing, simply the pitcher's failure. Phillips drives in runs -- active.

Anybody can stand there and be issued a walk. Only a man with SWAGGER can drive in runs.

Votto walks, Votto reaches base, even Votto makes fewer outs would be better. Active voice -- it's the missing piece of our glorious sabermetric revolution.

Seriously, this is how it's viewed. It's how I viewed it as a kid -- OBP was obvious to me from the start but, other than Pete Rose or pitchers pitching around sluggers (which was obviously! a smart move) or the opposite extreme of Sanguillen, walks seemed random. So BA and OBP were essentially the same thing, I didn't realize how many hackers there were -- they were a "tough out" (obviously! a good thing).

That too was the perception. The "tough out". In reality, most of those tough outs were in fact easy outs -- get the ball within 6 inches of the strike zone and they were guaranteed to swing at it.

As to Votto v Phillips -- whatever happened to Teh FEAR? Votto, again, leads the league in IBB at 13 -- I assume almost all of those brought Phillips to the plate. Phillips has 4 IBB.
   36. Mendo Posted: July 16, 2013 at 06:37 PM (#4496204)
In 1973, Pete Rose was 4th on the Reds in RBI. He won the NL MVP.

Of course you could argue he wasn't the Reds MVP. Morgan 9.2 WAR, Rose 8.3
   37. Bug Selig Posted: July 16, 2013 at 07:14 PM (#4496231)
Part of the reason Votto walks so much is that pitchers would rather pitch to Phillips (and they should because Joey's obviously a better hitter). The guy who "is not driving the ball" has more 2B than Phillips. And more HR than Phillips. And he even has more 3B! But I guess those are advanced statistics to this guy.
   38. BDC Posted: July 16, 2013 at 07:43 PM (#4496252)
I checked the box scores yesterday and there was Phillips with a line of 5 1 1 3. It's getting to be his typical day at the plate (2-run double and RBI groundout). What the heck, the runs count, enjoy it while it lasts.
   39. AJMcCringleberry Posted: July 16, 2013 at 08:49 PM (#4496388)
Not only does Cosart make a ton of outs by being shitty, Dusty instructs him to make outs on purpose (he's got 10 sac bunts).
   40. Walt Davis Posted: July 17, 2013 at 04:43 AM (#4496898)
Just to be clear, the entire universe agrees that Cozart is not the Reds' MVP ... right? His sacs are more impressive in that half of them have been in the first 3 innings. If the Reds can ever have a great 1st inning, maybe he'll be the first guy to lay down two sacrifices in the same inning. (I assume he'd be the first ... maybe a pitcher?)

On-contact Votto is hitting 416/662 ... obviously he should swing more! :-)
   41. zonk Posted: July 17, 2013 at 08:34 AM (#4496942)
I had forgotten how much Dusty likes his sac bunts...

If I ever owned a team, I think sac bunting with a position player in the first inning would be a fireable offense... in fact, if you game out what would need to happen for even the pitcher to get to the plate in a sac situation in the 1st, I think I might even prefer to let the SP swing away/take till he gets a strike, though I suppose I wouldn't make that firebale.

The worst I ever saw at this asinine tactic was Don Baylor... given that Baylor's playing career was built on OBP and SLG and the power of positive offense, I never understood why he fell so in love with having the #2 hitter bunt the leadoff man over. Bob Boone was another bad one - but him, I could sort of understand - since he couldn't really hit worth a damn, maybe he figured no one else could either.

But guys like Baylor and Baker? I mean, did you guys not pay attention to what it was that made you nominally valuable players during your time?
   42. Bitter Mouse Posted: July 17, 2013 at 09:08 AM (#4496970)
Prices have risen across the board since he canceled the Apocalypse.


Fun movie and a good speech.
   43. McCoy Posted: July 17, 2013 at 09:30 AM (#4496984)
I found myself actually bored during that movie and yawned several times. There was no there there. Probably make for a decent movie to find on TV but in the actual theater it wasn't really a spectacle for me and there was no story to make up for it. This was Toro's Transformers.
   44. Nasty Nate Posted: July 17, 2013 at 10:51 AM (#4497107)
I checked the box scores yesterday and there was Phillips with a line of 5 1 1 3.


If Phillips can get 3 RBI on an off-day during the All-Star Break never mind giving him the MVP, name the damn award after him!
   45. Paul Antonissen Posted: July 17, 2013 at 11:17 PM (#4497777)
But guys like Baylor and Baker? I mean, did you guys not pay attention to what it was that made you nominally valuable players during your time?


Joe Morgan is my go to example for this.

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