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Sunday, March 09, 2008

Daugherty: Dusty Baker: Knowing what makes his players tick more important than their stats

Just gonna cherry pick a few choice Daugherty lines for your Sunday morning here…before I add pumice to my mangled cup.

The best baseball managing is done by the seat of your pants, using good, old-fashioned, pre-sabermetric logic. That’s another reason to like Dusty Baker. (Beyond his knowledge of single-malt Scotches and Van Morrison lyrics, which is merely astounding and downright Renaissance.) If Baker manages by a book, it’s one inside his head, not one written by Bill James.

...Anyone with a laptop can locate the Web site baseball- reference.com and sound like an expert. Anyone with a library card can pick up one of James’ mind-numbing baseball “abstracts,” in which the author makes the game sound like a first cousin to biomechanical engineering.

...Numbers are fun to look at but dangerous to dwell on. Baker understands this. If Dunn walks 30 fewer times this year, he’ll drive in 15 more runs. His on-base percentage will dip. Oh, no.

If Votto takes fewer first-pitch strikes, his run production will improve.

And so on. Here’s a stat: Wins as manager: Dusty Baker, 1,162; Bill James, 0.

Repoz Posted: March 09, 2008 at 12:23 PM | 63 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: reds, sabermetrics

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1. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: March 09, 2008 at 12:46 PM (#2709074)

Ha! Ha! Remember when Bill James was managing against the Braves in the opener of the 1995 playoffs? And Bill James blew through his bench using good old-fashioned pre-sabermetric logic? And Bill James' team ended up trailing 5-4 in the bottom of the ninth with two outs and the bases loaded? And Bill James had to let Lance Painter hit? In just the 41st at-bat of Painter's major league career? Against Mark Wohlers? And Painter struck out? Bill James, you suck!

2. The cushions are crowded for Edmundo

Posted: March 09, 2008 at 01:03 PM (#2709079)

Gonf, I think you are confusing Don Baylor with Dusty Baker. Not that I haven't...

3. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: March 09, 2008 at 01:07 PM (#2709081)

Oh boy, I'm a total idiot.

It was their successive Cubs managing jobs that addled my brain. It might have also helped trigger my wheezing neurons if one of them had had the initials "Z.X."

4. Harveys Wallbangers

Posted: March 09, 2008 at 01:13 PM (#2709083)

Repoz, frustrated by the steroid river finally beginning to dry up, is casting about for a suitable replacement. Meaning a topic guaranteed to attract a cadre of posters dedicated to debating said topic day or night.

Wouldn't surprise me to learn that Gambling Rent and Repoz are working in tandem. One has the other on retainer perhaps?

Well, if it pimps traffic to the site and keeps advertisers happy I imagine it has a purpose.

5. Valentine Posted: March 09, 2008 at 01:33 PM (#2709088)

If Dunn walks 30 fewer times this year, he’ll drive in 15 more runs. His on-base percentage will dip. Oh, no.

Is this even remotely accurate? Even ignoring the difficulty of doing anything useful with pitches outside the strike zone, and the secondary effect of pitchers realizing that they no longer need to throw him strikes, how could he possibly expect to drive in 15 more runs in those 30 additional plate appearances?

I'm pretty sure that walking 30 fewer times would reduce the RBI totals of those following Dunn, though, likely by 10-20 RBIs? Players with high OBPs don't necessarily end up with a ton of run production credited to their own line, but they do very nice things for those surrounding them.

6. RollingWave Posted: March 09, 2008 at 01:34 PM (#2709089)

Dusty Baker world series ring = 0

Bill James' Red Sox ring = 2

sigh.... I mourn for you Bruce / Baily / Cueto / Votto , may some team quickly trade for you before your screwed

7. OCD SS Posted: March 09, 2008 at 01:37 PM (#2709091)

And I here I thought Dusty Baker was going to be the new Jim Rice.

But let's try this one: World Series Rings: Dusty Baker, 1; Bill James 2.

Edit: (From while I was typing) Is it fair to count Dusty's ring with the Dodgers in '81? I'm inclined to do so just to even up the match-up a little...

8. Andere Richtingen

Posted: March 09, 2008 at 01:47 PM (#2709094)

If Baker manages by a book, it’s one inside his head, not one written by Bill James.

Of course, it's setting up a false dichotomy. Baker doesn't manage according to Bill James, but he doesn't manage by "good old-fashioned pre-sabermetric logic" either. He doesn't make his decisions based on the book in his head, it's the one he pulls out of his ass.

9. Russ Posted: March 09, 2008 at 01:51 PM (#2709096)

He doesn't make his decisions based on the book in his head, it's the one he pulls out of his ass.

10. Repoz

Posted: March 09, 2008 at 02:01 PM (#2709098)

If Dunn walks 30 fewer times this year, he’ll drive in 15 more runs.

I thought Adam Dunn lacked the ability to hit sac flies...at least that's what the Cincy press pounded into everyone's head 2-3 years ago.

Repoz, frustrated by the steroid river finally beginning to dry up, is casting about for a suitable replacement.

Yes, Harveys...must stick with currencey!

11. Andere Richtingen

Posted: March 09, 2008 at 02:22 PM (#2709105)

In Baker's case, thees are not necessarily mutually exclusive... and I'm a moderate on the Baker spectrum -- IMO, he is kind of like a system player in professional football. In the right situation, Baker can be very effective... however, if the match isn't good, it's a disaster.

I agree -- he has worked well with veteran teams. But this article is about decision-making, and Baker has generated more head scratching than just about any manager.

12. baudib Posted: March 09, 2008 at 02:28 PM (#2709107)

If Dunn walked 30 less times with RISP, then 15 more RBIs is certainly possible.

13. Dan The Mediocre Posted: March 09, 2008 at 02:37 PM (#2709111)

If Dunn walked 30 less times with RISP, then 15 more RBIs is certainly possible.

Don't pitchers tend to avoid Dunn with RISP?

Over his career he bats .222/.416/.468 compared to .248/.381/.519. With RISP, he strikes out at about the same rate, but his walk rate jumps so that he walks more often than he strikes out. The drop in average is due to a 35 point drop in BABIP, but there is also a bit of a drop in ISO.

Walking 30 fewer times with RISP will probably get 10 more RBIs. The Reds should really bat him 3rd instead of 5th, so teams would be more likely to pitch to him with RISP.

14. Runscreated Posted: March 09, 2008 at 02:42 PM (#2709112)

15. Joe Bivens, Idiot Posted: March 09, 2008 at 02:46 PM (#2709113)

What makes players tick? Hookers and stimulants, with alcohol. Dusty knows.

16. baudib Posted: March 09, 2008 at 02:51 PM (#2709115)

Dunn has 328 RBIs in 836 at-bats w RISP, so maybe 12 more RBIs is more like it.

(Dunn's ratio, btw, is a lot lower than I anticipated. Many top hitters average .5 RBIs per 1 AB w/RISP.)

17. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: March 09, 2008 at 03:16 PM (#2709131)

You can blame Dusty for mismanaging the SF Giants in the playoffs against the NY Mets. Letting Mark Gardner hit for himself in the 6th and then having to pull him in next inning as he got rocked was the most notable mistake he and his players made. In a short series in particular, Dusty sucks.

Sure, and the Russ Ortiz move in Game Six of the '02 Series, too... but I'm still a big dummyhead.

Also, Dusty Baker never should have let Pedro Martinez pitch to Matsui and Posada.

18. jwb Posted: March 09, 2008 at 03:20 PM (#2709132)

The more I read about Dusty Baker as a person, the more I like him. Scotch and Van Morrison? An energy self-sustaining estate outside his hometown? An ownership stake in a company run by a high school buddy to build more of the same? Hunting, fishing, and biking? Ok, the last part isn't my cup of tea, but some of my best friends. . . Which makes it all the more annoying that he's such a bad manager, because he seems like he'd be such a cool friend or neighbor.

19. jolietconvict Posted: March 09, 2008 at 03:22 PM (#2709135)

Of course, it's setting up a false dichotomy. Baker doesn't manage according to Bill James, but he doesn't manage by "good old-fashioned pre-sabermetric logic" either. He doesn't make his decisions based on the book in his head, it's the one he pulls out of his ass.

Quit spreading lies! Dusty has a methodical system.

20. Jimmy P Posted: March 09, 2008 at 03:24 PM (#2709137)

If Dunn walked 30 less times with RISP, then 15 more RBIs is certainly possible.

Does this count Dusty batting Neifi first?

21. Repoz

Posted: March 09, 2008 at 03:28 PM (#2709141)

Beyond his knowledge of single-malt Scotches and Van Morrison lyrics, which is merely astounding and downright Renaissance.)

Yea...I'm sure Dusty knows all the lyrics to Van's "Ringworm"

I can see
By the look on your face
That you've got ringworm.
I'm very sorry but,
I have to tell you that
You've got ringworm.
It's a very common disease.
Actually, you're very luck to have

Ringworm
'cause you may have
Had somethin' else.
Oooh, aaahhh...
Uuunnnhhhaaahhnnn...
You've got ringworm.
Oooh-oooh, oooh, oooh-oooh, oooh, oooh-oooh....

22. Lassus Posted: March 09, 2008 at 03:30 PM (#2709144)

I find far less reason to be upset with or take issue with Baker (granted, I was never a fan of a Baker-managed team, and I agree with #18) than with Daugherty. What the HELL did James ever do to Daughtery to get his panties in such a personal twist? Damn.

23. calhounite Posted: March 09, 2008 at 03:34 PM (#2709151)

nice collecting achievements being blind (not knowing what a roid mass looks like) dumb not knowing that that a walk and a tater = 2 taters and therefore is the same as 2 taters) and lacking taste buds (shown by chomping down on toohpicks)

tell you what. Plant a tree. Now the tree's done more than James.

24. calhounite Posted: March 09, 2008 at 03:51 PM (#2709165)

and being a zone hitter, GOING to strike out. That's what zone hitters do. And the mass of what is termed SUCCESSFUL hitters ARE zone hitter. To best counteract the natural advantage the pitcher who knows what's throwing, varies what he throwing, AND can throw harder than ANYONE can swing a bat threw a zone (at best around 90 mph) IS to enforce as much as possible the rule that the pitcher has to come to the hitter. IE THROW STRIKES.

when the hitter focuses on a zone, he's giving the pitcher the wins he earns, but requiring the pitcher to EARN his wins. And sometimes that means taking called 3rd strikes down the middle.

Dunn KNOWS what he's doing. Baker's whole career is based on being stupid, ESPECIALLY in regard to knowing his players. ex. BONDS

25. Tricky Dick Posted: March 09, 2008 at 04:01 PM (#2709177)

From the article:

It ain't that scientific.

The NFL does the same thing, in a different fashion. To convince you that pro football is actually a 17-week MENSA convention, The League whips out its 800-page playbooks and offers up oh-so-serious coaches who work 20 hours a day and act as if their jobs involve brain surgery and a red telephone.

Possibly, it's less complex. Block. Tackle. Win.

I suppose that is like saying "Hit the ball. Catch the ball. Win." in baseball. Very helpful. And is he seriously suggesting that head coaches, offensive/defensive co-ordinators, etc. have so little effect on whether a pro football team wins?

26. kubiwan Posted: March 09, 2008 at 04:03 PM (#2709180)

If Dunn walks 30 fewer times this year, he’ll drive in 15 more runs. His on-base percentage will dip. Oh, no.

Is this even remotely accurate?

Assuming that the walks are randomly distributed, no. Out of 30 additional at-bats, you would expect Dunn to get 7-8 hits (with about 15 TB), and maybe 1 SF. Given his historical H-to-RBI ratio (about 1.5), that would generate about 6 additional RBIs. Subtract 1 RBI on the grounds that about 1 in 30 BBs probably occur with the bases loaded, and you have a net increase of 5 RBIs or so. And all it would cost is replacing about 15-some bases with 20-some outs.

27. kubiwan Posted: March 09, 2008 at 04:04 PM (#2709181)

Here’s a stat: Losses as manager: Dusty Baker, 1,041; Bill James, 0.

28. sunnyday2 Posted: March 09, 2008 at 04:18 PM (#2709191)

Dusty Baker, 1,162; Bill James, 0.

He forgot to add: Dusty Baker, 1,162; Bill James, 0; Daugherty, 0.

Moron.

29. baudib Posted: March 09, 2008 at 04:33 PM (#2709197)

But the guy hitting behind Dunn would have 20 less so what good does that do you?

Wrong.

30. retro-shiite Posted: March 09, 2008 at 04:51 PM (#2709205)

If Dunn walks 30 fewer times this year, he’ll drive in 15 more runs.

Apparently statistics are only desirable if they're completely made up and speculative.

31. retro-shiite Posted: March 09, 2008 at 04:53 PM (#2709206)

And let me just say that I expect this year to be all kinds of fun.

32. retro-shiite Posted: March 09, 2008 at 04:57 PM (#2709207)

OK--I actually RTFA. This guy's actually *bragging* about having advocated trading Votto AND Bailey for Joe Blanton? Wow.

33. Harveys Wallbangers

Posted: March 09, 2008 at 05:05 PM (#2709214)

Retro:

Paul D. and other Cincy baseball followers have tabbed Votto a "Dunn clone". And as Adam himself asked last fall, "why is that a bad thing?".

Something also to keep in mind is that an attitude has taken hold in Cincy that "they score all these runs but don't win". Hence the focus on other things.

34. a bebop a rebop Posted: March 09, 2008 at 05:06 PM (#2709215)

But the guy hitting behind Dunn would have 20 less so what good does that do you?

Wrong.

Well, the 30 non-walks wouldn't necessarily happen with runners on base, while the guy behind Dunn (in the 30 walk scenario) would be guaranteed to have runners on base. That's not worth 20 RBI obviously, but I'd be willing to bet that it is more lucrative in terms of overall run scoring.

EDIT: I mean, ok, this is obvious. In the 30-walk scenario, he's got a 1.000 OBP. Don't really know why I'm arguing the point...

35. RB in NYC (Now with New iPhone!) Posted: March 09, 2008 at 05:07 PM (#2709217)

Here’s a stat: Wins as manager: Dusty Baker, 1,162; Bill James, 0.

Of course, here's another: Losses as manager: Dusty Baker, 1,041; Bill James, 0.

36. Joe Bivens, Idiot Posted: March 09, 2008 at 05:09 PM (#2709218)

Our Paul D.? I thought he was a Jays fan?

37. Padraic Posted: March 09, 2008 at 05:26 PM (#2709229)

Anyone with a library card can pick up one of James’ mind-numbing baseball “abstracts,” in which the author makes the game sound like a first cousin to biomechanical engineering.

Is it safe to say he's never actually read James?

Articles like this just reinforce what was so great about James's iconoclasm. The columnist basically asserts that baseball knowledge is restricted to a few elites, and that it is impossible to learn.

In what other fields would you disparage the fact that people can go to the library to learn?

38. retro-shiite Posted: March 09, 2008 at 05:29 PM (#2709230)

Something also to keep in mind is that an attitude has taken hold in Cincy that "they score all these runs but don't win". Hence the focus on other things.

Heh. Well, that pitching staff'll look much better with a little less offensive support...

39. Styles P. Deadball Posted: March 09, 2008 at 05:45 PM (#2709237)

If you shot back that Blanton has won 42 times in the last three years - and that he went 7-5 at home last year and 7-5 on the road - if you suggested that no number matters but Games Won, you were dismissed as an illiterate.

Eric Milton was way over .500 in his career before going to Cincinnati. Mr Daugherty, how'd that work out?

40. Harveys Wallbangers

Posted: March 09, 2008 at 05:47 PM (#2709240)

Joe:

No. The guy who writes for the Cincy paper and who penned the article in question.

Paul Daugherty.

41. Joe Bivens, Idiot Posted: March 09, 2008 at 05:50 PM (#2709242)

Ah. Thank you.

42. rfloh Posted: March 09, 2008 at 06:09 PM (#2709255)

Votto AND Bailey for Joe Blanton?

Oh my. Most A's fans would be wetting themselves at the thought of this trade.

(Actually, maybe Blanton won as many on the road as at home, even with a much higher road ERA, because Oakland's hitters worked under the same conditions as their pitcher. Allow more runs, score more runs.

Yes. Maybe this suggests that wins are not a good measure of how good a pitcher is? Since his wins depend, you know, on how many runs his teammates score?

Numbers are fun to look at but dangerous to dwell on.

Sure. So why are you talking about pitcher wins? Dunn's strikeouts? Those are numbers too. Why dwell on them?

Why not tell us about Blanton's pitches, his fastball, his breaking ball etc. Why not go and actually watch some games and do some scouting? Why not scout Bailey, and talk about his pitches and compare him to Blanton, and tell us why you think he is better than Blanton, instead of just using numbers?

43. tfbg9 Posted: March 09, 2008 at 06:14 PM (#2709262)

Is it safe to say he's never actually read James?

Hope so. The fewer baseball people who read James and his ilk, be they insiders or media types, the better it is for the Boston Red Sox, I'd have to guess.

44. Tricky Dick Posted: March 09, 2008 at 06:15 PM (#2709263)

This writer seems to be a real Art Garfamudis. I don't mind if someone wants to argue that intangibles aren't measured by stats and shouldn't be ignored. A kernal of truth exists which can be debated. I can understand that a hometown sports writer wants to defend the new hometown manager. But what irks me about this article is the writer's apparent need for simple minded explanations.

45. Voros McCracken, Human Shield Posted: March 09, 2008 at 06:20 PM (#2709267)

I find far less reason to be upset with or take issue with Baker (granted, I was never a fan of a Baker-managed team, and I agree with #18) than with Daugherty.

That's my opinion too. Daugherty's the one out of line here. Baker's free to argue that if they wanted someone other than Dusty to manage the team the way Dusty does, they should have hired somebody else.

I'm sure Daugherty's never read one of James' abstracts if he thinks they sound like bio-mechanical engineering. I'm also sure he doesn't care either, he's got column space to fill.

46. rfloh Posted: March 09, 2008 at 06:23 PM (#2709269)

Biomechanics is really interesting. At least, if you are a sports science geek.

47. base ball chick Posted: March 09, 2008 at 06:50 PM (#2709281)

i simply do not understand the - if he walks 30 fewer times he will drive in 15 more runs

where on EARTH does THAT number come from? this assumes a BA of .500 so where does THAT come from? why isn't equally as valid to say if he walks 30 fewer times he will make 30 more outs?

and what does any of this have to do with bill james?

is there ANY proof that swinging at every pitch no matter where it is and never walking unless it is a IBB improves a batter's average or creates more wins?

is there any proof that batters hit just as well if they swing at balls out of the strike zone? or even at the "unhittable strikes" - inside pitch on the hands/at the knees

i am not understanding why swinging at strike 3 is wonderful and staring at strike 3 is terrible

well i hope that the daughertys get their wish and the reds trade off all their good young prospects AND adam dunn for free swinging veterans like neifi perez who don't do terrible things like walk or stare at strike 3

48. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L)

Posted: March 09, 2008 at 06:53 PM (#2709283)

i simply do not understand the - if he walks 30 fewer times he will drive in 15 more runs

put a toothpick in your mouth, chew on it for a day, the answer will become obvious

49. Danny Posted: March 09, 2008 at 06:55 PM (#2709284)

Baseball's cerebral side involves numbers. While I believe in baseball-card wisdom - you are who the back of your card says you are - it's just a little piece of the whole. When some of us (OK, me mostly) advocated dealing, say, Votto and Homer Bailey for Oakland pitcher Joe Blanton, the Statboys came out flame-throwing numbers:

Blanton's a creation of his spacious home ballpark! Look at his ERA, home and away! Blanton's a flyball pitcher! Check out his ratio of groundballs to flies!

He's talking to the wrong "statboys." First, Blanton's 45% career GB rate (47% last year) is actually a bit above average.

Second, Blanton's career is far too short to make conclusions about whether he's especially suited to his park beyond normal park factors. He has nearly identical peripherals at home and on the road, with the difference in ERA being entirely attributable to BABIP: .273 at home, .318 on the road. Oakland's park suppresses BABIP, but there's little reason to think he'll continue to allow such a high BABIP on the road.

50. rfloh Posted: March 09, 2008 at 07:00 PM (#2709289)

#53

Yeah, and while last season saw a huge improvement in his walk rate that might not be sustained, his "peripherals" have progressively gotten better, his FIP has progressively gotten better.

I really do not understand why it seems many stat inclined people believe that Blanton is crap.

I wonder if Beane is thinking about signing Cupcakes longterm.

51. Andere Richtingen

Posted: March 09, 2008 at 07:01 PM (#2709290)

Biomechanics is really interesting. At least, if you are a sports science geek.

I'm guessing Daugherty has never read any biomechanical engineering either.

52. base ball chick Posted: March 09, 2008 at 07:05 PM (#2709292)

i'm not getting what biomechanical engineering has got to do with swinging at strike 3 or swinging at pitches out of the strike zone

isn't biomechanical engineering all about making replacement hips because you figure how a joint works so it will take the stress the same and move the same?

- and i confess that like daugherty i haven't never read biomechanical engineering neither

53. Davo Malvolio Posted: March 09, 2008 at 07:23 PM (#2709299)

In what other fields would you disparage the fact that people can go to the library to learn?

Religion?

54. rfloh Posted: March 09, 2008 at 07:49 PM (#2709310)

i'm not getting what biomechanical engineering has got to do with swinging at strike 3 or swinging at pitches out of the strike zone

isn't biomechanical engineering all about making replacement hips because you figure how a joint works so it will take the stress the same and move the same?

You have explained why biomechanics is important in the study of sporting movement. Sports, any sport, is essentially human movement. Which means, a study of sporting movement, is a combination of human biology with physics (mechanics).

Biomechanics can allow you to analyse the pitching motion of a pitcher. The bowling motion of a cricket bowler. The interaction between a weightlifter and a barbell when the lifter is snatching the bar. Etc.

<edit: I'm not saying that it would be easy to analyse the pitching motion of a pitcher>

55. Red Menace Posted: March 09, 2008 at 07:57 PM (#2709311)

I agree with comment 24 and I find it informed and reasonable. To the best of my recollection this is the first time I have ever reacted this way to internet writing that employs the capitalization-for-inflection style. I'm thunderstruck. I have to re-evaluate my pet theory on the phenomenon.

56. Teheran's Uranium Enriched Missiles Posted: March 09, 2008 at 08:33 PM (#2709322)

In what other fields would you disparage the fact that people can go to the library to learn?

Isnt this true of America in general these days? I mean, look at the president!

57. The Marksist Posted: March 10, 2008 at 01:53 AM (#2709468)

#59 - I also agree with 24. I did have to read it 3 times before I could figure that out, though.

58. Eric J is Financed by a Rich Grandpa Posted: March 10, 2008 at 02:13 AM (#2709476)

Re: looking vs. swinging strikeouts - does anyone keep track of these? I'd love to see the league leaders in both categories, or the players with the highest fractions of K's that were looking or swinging, if anyone knows where to find the data.

59. base ball chick Posted: March 10, 2008 at 02:19 AM (#2709479)

rfloh

that is interesting. i guess it is more the science of what chadbradfordwannabe does with his videos.

eric j,

i think that is available on hardball times

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Daugherty: Dusty Baker: Knowing what makes his players tick more important than their stats

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