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Thursday, July 16, 2009

Daugherty: This is reality for Reds

It’s a disgusting Gyorgy of bendable stats!

Baseball rewards patience and offers it in return. Two weeks ago, the Reds were a scrappy club, just a big hitter away from being players in the NL Central. Now, they’ve lost seven of 10 and are one bad stretch from trying to trade players who make lots of money.

Ten days from now, who knows? Snap judgments are always wrong in a sport where they play 162 times. But this year has neither the look nor the feel of anything special for the Cincinnati Reds. Baseball allows for patience. But its supply isn’t bottomless. Around here, optimism is close to being designated for assignment.

You can gobble statistics, or you can form impressions. Stats offer a flexible truth. Take “run differential.’’ This is the difference between the runs you score and the runs you give up. It’s a decent, obvious barometer for success or failure. But on July 6, the Reds lost a game 22-1. So much for that stat.

Give me impressions. Allow me to watch a team for 87 games, then apply some back-of-the-baseball-card wisdom. I trust that more than numbers that bend.

Repoz Posted: July 16, 2009 at 11:00 PM | 12 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: projections, reds, sabermetrics

Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. robinred Posted: July 16, 2009 at 11:26 PM (#3256578)
The Reds just aren't very good. I was hoping I was wrong about them.
   2. The Adam Dunn Effort #44 Posted: July 16, 2009 at 11:36 PM (#3256596)
Votto coming back sparked things a little, but when you have to start Homer Bailey and Micah Owings, its a gamble every time (except when Owings comes to bat).
   3. robinred Posted: July 16, 2009 at 11:38 PM (#3256600)
Bailey has actually done better than I thought he would. Myabe they should play Owings in RF and see if Bruce can pitch.
   4. Shock Posted: July 16, 2009 at 11:39 PM (#3256601)
Perceptions don't bend. Eyewitness testimony is infallible.
   5. The Adam Dunn Effort #44 Posted: July 16, 2009 at 11:49 PM (#3256626)
Bruce definitely did the sophomore slump perfectly this year. Ouch.
   6. North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan Posted: July 16, 2009 at 11:58 PM (#3256640)
Owings should be an OFer, right? (or OFer/mopup man - that might just eliminate the 12th pitcher and allow for another bench guy)
   7. Shock Posted: July 17, 2009 at 12:45 AM (#3256741)
   8. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: July 17, 2009 at 03:09 AM (#3256958)
Bruce hit the ball at everyone all first half. After a while he became frustrated and lost control of the strike zone a bit.

It's a lost season. He will hit .285 with 35 homers next year or some such.
   9. Dunn Deal Posted: July 17, 2009 at 04:49 AM (#3257016)
Bruce's broken wrist killed what was left of my hope for the Reds in 2009. I say bring up the kids, hope that Bailey and Volquez get it straightened out, shop Arroyo/Weathers/Rhodes, and hope that JB can indeed return with a stronger showing next year (he'll turn 23 just after Opening Day next year, so I've still got hope).
   10. hokieneer Posted: July 17, 2009 at 03:20 PM (#3257259)
The perception and the reality of the 2009 reds is: the offense is terrible, driven by the fact no one gets on base. You can figure this out by watching 2 games or by "studying the back of baseball cards".
   11. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: July 17, 2009 at 03:31 PM (#3257275)
The Reds would get a bump if Edwin comes back healthy.

Right now any pitcher who lets Votto get a real pitch with runners on base should be whipped, beaten and left by the curb
   12. Ok, Griffey's Dunn (Nothing Iffey About Griffey) Posted: July 17, 2009 at 05:18 PM (#3257434)
Harveys, Edwin is back and has hit .324/.395/.647/1.042 since his return from the DL. They still need to find a couple more guys who can actually hit. With all the outfield injuries (Dickerson may be heading to the DL), Dusty has his excuse to run Willy (53 OPS+) out to centerfield for 600+ plate appearances.

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