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1. you got a STEAGLES? you're gonna need a STEAGLES. Posted: September 15, 2011 at 11:40 AM (#3925571)he's really, really good.
also, yes, Yes, ffs YES. he needs to go into camp as a SP next year. if he bombs out, then you can always fall back on him as a reliever, but you need to give him the opportunity to prove he can't do it.
oh, and one more thing:
they need to allow alonso to prove he can hit in september, and then trade him over the offseason for some quality relievers. or trade him for nothing but use his value to dump bronson arroyo.
they need to commit to votto. they need to build this team up and try to make another run next year. if he leaves down the line, that'll suck, but it'd be better than giving him away just because him leaving is a possibility sometime down the line.
and if it's salary that's driving the decision, they need to contract the franchise. you don't trade one of the best players in the league solely because he's being paid as if that's the case.
Ray Milland went from the greatest pitcher of all time (very short peak) to an airport security guard-what a shame.
I don't understand the need for relievers. Ondrusek, Bray, etc have been fairly competent.
The starters other than Cueto/Leake have been a train wreck and I don't think Volquez is ever really coming back and Arroyo, to your good point, is on the downside of a mediocre career.
The Reds need an outfielder who can both hit and field. I got my *ss chewed for suggesting that Drew was mediocre but accept that the assessment was actually somewhat generous even accounting for his plus defense. The kid strikes out SOOO much it undermines all of his positives. And the right side of the infield needs someone of competence. Scott Rolen had his Gary Mathews Sr moment where you cover the inside half of the plate like a terror then pitchers figure it out and your career careens toward the end. His back issues only accelerate this path. Shortstop looks to have an option in the kid Cozart but that is contingent on health.
The Reds have an offensive anchor in Votto who over the next five years is going to be a regular MVP candidate. Walt should know how to dress that up.
i have cueto around 5% below league average, leake at 7% below average, and volquez at 7% above average. i also have arroyo at 10% below average. that's all just a 1 year sample, though.
really, if i'm the reds, i've gotta think the number 1 priority would be to fix cueto, leake, and volquez. if you can't do that, that means you've gotta build an entirely new rotation, and that's just not a feasible short-term strategy. if all 3 maintain this level of performance without improvement, it sinks the team for 3 years regardless of most anything else they do.
um, ?
They bought out Vott's arb years last winter. He said he didn't want to commit to anything longer than three years - I think it's obvious that he wants to test the market when he becomes eligible.
Alonso isn't going to be pretty in LF but they need to keep him in the lineup. With Stubbs and Bruce out there the OF defense will be fine.
3B and Rolen's health are big issues. The team is giving Juan Francisco a long look. He actually made a great play last night against Chicago, showing off range and an arm I didn't know he had. I still think he'll strike out too much and walk too little to be an average ML hitter.
The back end of the rotation is a problem and I don't know if they'll do anything about it. Cueto, Leake and Arroyo will be 1, 2, and 3. Homer Bailey has put together a strong finish, but he's done this before and still gives up too many flyballs for my taste. Hopefully Travis Wood reverts back to what he did in '10, because I have no faith at all in Volquez.
i have cueto around 5% below league average
How's that? Take a look at his GB rate.
Never heard of 'em.
really, though, cueto's unsustainably low .253 BABIP is supporting his unsustainably low .219 batting average against, which is supporting his unsustainably low .593 OPS against, which is supporting his unsustainably low 2.36 ERA. if the BABIP normalizes next year, that's all gonna go up significantly.
there's more there, but since i haven't really gone public with my data yet, i think i should stop now. he is a pretty interesting case study, though. fangraphs has his ERA being 49% above average, his FIP being 13% above average, and his xFIP being 2% above average.
my system has him more in line with xFIP, but slightly worse. i think he'll be one of the first writeups i put online.
Never trade anything of real value for RPs. Full stop.
If Alonso can put up a 120-130 wRC+ with avg. D at 1B, that's a hell of a nice player. You can get more than RPs for that.
Or put him in LF or 3B and live with the shitty D.
His BABIP will regress but not as much as you might think. He's been at .290 the past two years, when his GB% was 12 percent lower than this year. He's changed as a pitcher, the windup being one superficial example.
I have seen firsthand the impact of trying to 'live with bad defense at third base'.
Do NOT go there. It kills the team.
Left field you can manage with a guy like Stubbs to compensate. A very poor man's version of Willie and Hank Sauer where Willie took everything unless it was hit right to Hank.
I have seen firsthand the impact of trying to 'live with bad defense at third base'.
Do NOT go there. It kills the team.
That bad huh?
What's your guess over a full season? -10, -15, -20?
he hasn't proven he can do that, though. here's the thing. shitty defense does not effect alonso alone. it also effects each pitcher, both directly (poor range leading to an increase in doubles) and indirectly (pitchers pitching away from contact and focusing on staying on the outer half of the plate in fear of a hard hit ball to LF). it also effects stubbs, in that he has to overcompensate by shading towards LF. there is a saying that you're only as good as your weakest link. that's not a perfect analogy, but it is worth pointing out.that's certainly useful information to take into account. the number is just a number. i happen to think it's a very interesting number, but there is context outside of it that is also important, specifically cueto's newfound groundball tendencies.
Well it depends on whether you are just Wes Helms bad or Jim Ray Hart galactically bad.
But bad infield defense at a position other than first has a ripple effect across the team but especially at third because now your pitchers are loathe to go inside. I know the real events may seem to happen only one extra time a game but you can see it in a pitchers approach particularly a starter. And unless the guy is one of the best he is now working with a reduced arsenal.
And everything flows from that proverbial nail being lost.
Do NOT put a horrible defender at third base. Kills you.
Yes. I am not referring to Casey in these discussions.
He is merely below average.
The Brewers problem is that they are poor at multiple positions with a concentration on the right side as the third baseman is below average and the shortstop is inept.
How does that effect his value to other teams? It's sheer stupidity to hold a fire sale just b/c you can't use a guy right now.
But bad infield defense at a position other than first has a ripple effect across the team but especially at third because now your pitchers are loathe to go inside. I know the real events may seem to happen only one extra time a game but you can see it in a pitchers approach particularly a starter. And unless the guy is one of the best he is now working with a reduced arsenal.
I've never seen him play, but I gather you're saying -20 or worse. Yeah, that won't play.
Is it poor range or errors?
either way, i'm gonna get back to what i should be doing.
The Reds have Alfonso who is most likely a good hitter who can only play 1B, and they have Votto. You suggest trading him for two very, very good relievers.
I think, that there's no such thing that's available in trade. Any "very, very good" RP who's available (i.e. not an elite closer) is likely to just be an avg. RP who's had 1-2 fluky good years.
Does that not sum it up?
Alonso looks to have bad feet and slow reflexes. That's an ugly combo to put at third.
Alonso really looks to be a dead ringer for Ron Kittle only a better hitter.
Would anyone here put RON KITTLE at third base for any other reason than to see if a ballplayer can be killed by a ground ball?
Alonso looks to have bad feet and slow reflexes. That's an ugly combo to put at third.
Alonso really looks to be a dead ringer for Ron Kittle only a better hitter.
Would anyone here put RON KITTLE at third base for any other reason than to see if a ballplayer can be killed by a ground ball?
Nope, sounds like a disaster.
I think you can live with poor range, but good hands/reflexes, but IF errors are killers.
EDIT: What about Hatteberg? He gets on base!
Both-he was the total package. But he really could hit. I remember Dave Kingman at third, also for the Giants.
They have two, Sappelt and Heisey, and they might have another if Phipps can sustain his improvement over the second half of this year; I've never seen a guy go from within an inch of being released to hammering the ball as quickly as he did beginning near the end of June.
They have to do something about the left side of their infield. Cozart, assuming he comes back healthy, is adequate at best (and I like him more than most), and 3B is a train wreck (don't talk to me about Francisco). They also have to address the starting pitching depth.
-- MWE
QFT by a Jays fan who has had the pleasure of watching Edwin "E5" Encarnacion at the hot corner.
Otherwise, they could package Alonso and one of their other SP's for an upgrade in the rotation. Maybe the A's would be interested in giving up Anderson or Gonzalez?
C'mon. Heisey has been on the roster how long and Dusty still won't play him. Do you really think that is going to change? I don't.
Volquez is injury-prone until proven otherwise
Wood is an unknown
Leake looks to be viable
Cueto has overachieved
Maybe it's time for Dusty to leave then; it's a known fact that he has "his guys" who tend to play no matter what, and "the other guys" who rot on the bench until he is more or less forced to play them. I'm not a Reds' fan but their games are on TV here and I do see them occasionally. It seems to me that they have a pretty decent nucleous and some half-way decent talent coming through the pipeline. IMHO a change at the helm might be what is needed to start playing some of the younger guys and get them over the hump.
I agree with Harveys on most of this, whoever is in charge needs to play Heisey everyday (for a long stretch) to find out if he is a major league regular or not. Using him as a pinch-hitter or fill-in guy is no way to figure this out. I would try and trade Alonso to someone for an everyday third baseman; I don't think the Reds can count on Rolen being healthy any longer and running Cairo, Francisco, et al out there on a regular basis is not a formula for success. Trying to make Alonso into a 3B is not going to work. Play Cozart at SS (presuming he recovers from his injury) and stick with him until he proves he can't play the position. The Reds don't need him to be spectacular, reliable would be good enough.
The big question mark is the starting pitching, there is no real #1 starter but instead a bunch of #3-4 types. Unless they can acquire an ace via free agency or trade they are just going to have to hope one or more of the incumbents can kick it up a notch or two. Of course part of this has to do with their home ballpark, it is difficult to develop young pitchers when any mistake can turn into a 400 foot home run. I would definitely try to make Chapman into a starter, it is a waste of his talent pitching the 7th or 8th innings.
Next week I will discuss how to fix the Cubs :-)
Alonso in left makes sense in that his harm should be minimized and you can bat him fourth between your two power lefties.
You can then tolerate Stubbs in center. Hanigan is a solid catcher who gets on base so really all Walt has to do is dig up a third baseman and another decent starter.
That and refresh the bench which let them down this season.
But the Reds path to contention is not complicated.
Well, you said that the Reds needed an outfielder who could hit and field, and I pointed out that they had two, and possibly a third. If you want to amend the statement to an outfielder who can hit and field "and that Dusty will play".... that's something of a different issue.
-- MWE
touche!!!
Alonso is a lefty too. What does that accomplish? Heisey seems like a better fit for the Reds when you consider that he's a righty and that he can play good defense.
The Reds and the Rays seem like perfect fits to make a trade here. The Rays have starting pitching depth that they can afford to trade, since they need to make room in the rotation for Moore anyway. And I don't think Casey Kotchman is the answer at first base going forward for TB. Something like Niemann + a pitching prospect or solid reliever for Alonso would seem like it makes a ton of sense for both teams.
Absolutely. I don't think they have to make any trades or FA signings to contend - just re-up Phillips and take away Dusty's veteran security blankets (Renteria, Lewis, Cairo, Hernandez, Willis). Their Pythagorean W-L is 78-71 right now, and they'll get several wins better by plugging Mesoraco (C), Alonso (LF), and Cozart (SS) into the lineup every day. Meanwhile, their two main contenders in the NL Central may well lose their top hitters this offseason. The Reds have good young arms, a superstar to build around in Joey Votto, and a farm system that's been steadily producing MLB-level position players to the point where they have surpluses of young players at key positions (Stubbs/Heisey in CF, Mesoraco/Grandal/Hanigan at C, Votto/Alonso at 1B) that can be used as trade bait to fill any remaining holes.
I'm not even sure they need to be trading for much starting pitching. A lot of teams would love to have an under-30 pitching core of Chapman, Cueto, Leake, Volquez, Wood, and Bailey.
since we have mike emeigh here, i'm wondering if you have an opinion as to whether hanigan, mesoraco, or grandal could reasonably be expected to make the move over to 3b?
I guess it was the Ron Kittle allusion maybe?
But it does bring up that the Reds need some right-handed balance which is why Rolen was SO important to the team.
Personally I would be delighted if under the guise of a challenge trade the Brewers traded Casey for Alonso. As the kids say, that would be AWESOME
Concur. I couldn't believe how many games Ty Wigginton threw away for the Rockies while flailing around at third base this year.
They've been in that spot for what seems like a decade. First is was Griff, Casey, & Dunn, now it's Votto, Bruce, Alonso. Outside of Rolen's healthy and unexpected 2010, I can't recall the last right handed middle-of-the-order bat the Reds had.
that is a bit of an interesting situation. cincinnati has 2 of the best catching prospects in all of baseball, plus a platoon of hanigan and hernandez at the major league level, who seem to be one of the most productive catcher tandems in all of baseball.
It was a huge failure of Walt to not move Hernandez at the deadline. I think I was one of the last fans holding out hope for a 2nd half run (based off pythag), but it became apparent a good 10 days before the deadline that the season was likely over. Hernandez should have been moved and Mesoraco should be in the majors right now.
The big question mark is the starting pitching, there is no real #1 starter but instead a bunch of #3-4 types.
It's not necessarily a bad thing to have 4-5 under 27 cost control starters that are league average. I think everyone is waiting for one or 2 of that crew to take "the leap" and improve. I'm beginning to think we are going to be waiting a while for that to happen.
Maybe it's time for Dusty to leave then
Probably. The team, as presently constructed, is too young and has more major league talent ready in the pipeline. He's not the right man for the job anymore.
Yes, I have an opinion. No, none of them could play 3B.
Mesoraco IS in the majors right now. He SHOULD have been in the majors two months ago.
[/end semantic argument]
-- MWE
I doubt that the Reds want to pay the money Ramirez expects
Hence the appeal of Casey McGehee!!!
That's a fait accompli. If you go through the options for Boras all paths lead to the Cubs. It's the only nexus where the money will be there, no DH (Prince likes playing first--yeah, go figure), and it's hitter friendly.
The notion that Prince will go to SF or Seattle is silly even setting aside what those GMs might think. There is no WAY Prince is going to put himself in a ballpark that makes life more difficult. He's very aware of what makes him valuable and loved by the fans.
Yet unless the Cards wise up, Wrigley is also an excellent spot for Pujols.
You know a lot more about the guy than I do, but SF is an excellent fit in basically every way possible. They need a 1b, they need hitting really, really, bad they have money, they have a contending team, and SF is a cool city to be rich, young and famous in.
Assuming he leaves Milwaukee, I would think Fielder will sign with the Giants or the Cubs.
As to the Reds: many good comments here. I would like to see them keep Votto (duh), stick Alondo in left and live with the D and then move Alonso to 1b if/when Votto leaves (I think he will) get a better second option than Francisco at 3rd, and get more from Chapman. I am OK with Cozart at SS, although he is nothing to get happy about. I would like to see Heisey on the field a little more.
I think that what happens with the 2012 Reds will depend quite a bit on where Pujols and Fielder are playing in 2012.
I've been assuming that Tampa tries to sell high on Shields this offseason.
You can make the arguement that Heisey should have started more before Gomes was traded, but since then he (1) was the regular, (2) was hurt, then (3) had to share time with shiny-new-toy Alonzo.
You deserve to get your *ass chewed, if you think he's "mediocre".
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