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Tuesday, July 24, 2012
4. (1) Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay – Signed through 2016 for $38 million.
After a long stint at the top of this list, Longoria has finally been dethroned. Injuries have essentially wiped out his age 26 season, and he’s down to just four more years left on the seemingly never-ending contract the Rays signed him to as a rookie. However, this fall in the rankings is more about the three guys in front of him than about Longoria himself. Even with the durability questions, he’s still one of the game’s elite talents, and that contract is still paying him a tiny fraction of what he’s actually worth. In a normal year, Longoria would have still been in the mix for the top spot, but this isn’t a normal year. This is a year that has seen three young outfielders all perform at incredible levels, and that trio has emerged as the future of the sport. This is no knock on Longoria. He’s just been displaced by three guys who could each carry the sport on their back for the next decade.
3. (6) Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pittsburgh – Signed through 2018 for $63 million.
McCutchen entered the year as a consistently solid hitter after posting a wRC+ of 125, 125, and 129 during his first three years in the big leagues. This year, McCutchen has exploded, turning doubles into home runs and outhitting every other player in the National League. His 187 wRC+ is second in baseball, and at age 25, he’s turned into a true superstar. He probably won’t keep hitting for power at this level, but even if some of those home runs turn back into doubles, he’s still a premier all around talent. The Pirates were extremely smart to lock up McCutchen over the off-season, buying out all of his arbitration years and getting his first three years of free agency as well. He’s worth several magnitudes more than the contract is going to pay him, and he’s almost single-handedly restored Pittsburgh’s credibility as a franchise. The Pirates have a superstar who isn’t going anywhere any time soon, and that’s good for both the city and the sport as a whole.
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1. A triple short of the cycleI did not RTFA but this must be hyperbole. "Several magnitudes more" means 100 or 1,000 times more. No way.
It's not like he's Brady Anderson - I mean - a ~180 jump in SLG is certainly a big number, but Barry Bonds took a big jump in his age 25 season, too.
Is McCutchen a 45 HR guy? Maybe not - but when I've seen him hit, there's nothing that screams to me 'career year'... He's good... really good.
He's really skinny. I know that isn't a real reason, but it does create cognitive dissonance when you see him hit the ball 400'. I suppose he'll gain some weight as he gets older.
The .373 average doesn't scream career year?
On the other hand, he's also seeing a major power spike at age 25, which is a very normal development, especially for a five-tool athlete like McCutchen, and he'll probably retain quite a bit of that power. (Though I agree with Cameron, probably not all of it.) He's also probably going to start walking more as his babip declines.
What does a guy having a career year look like?
BB-Ref lists McCutchen at 5'10", 185 lbs. The same source lists Willie Mays at 5'10", 170; Ernie Banks at 6'1", 180; and Hank Aaron at 6'0", 180.
when ryan ludwick had his crazy season he would lunge at pitches, like he is wont to do, and instead of missing them or popping up he would serve them into right-center. he would hit home runs on ridiculous swings.
andrew is controlling the strike zone and when he connects the ball is just exploding off his bat.
it looks like a step forward versus a guy just having everything break his way
It's almost certainly both, right?
There is a difference between flukey career years, where mediocrities go nuts (Ryan Ludwick), and stars having years that are exceptional even by their standards.
If you think this isn't a career year for McCutchen you're expecting him to a Hall of Famer, he is leading the league in average, slugging, OPS, and OPS+. He probably won't do that on a consistent basis. But that doesn't mean this kind of performance is far out of the norm for a toolsy 25 year old with a good track record. He is basically having a Matt Kemp-esque jump from excellence to stardom.
The focus on the home runs as being the thing unlikely to be "real", though, seems backwards. There's basically no chance that Andrew McCutchen will bat .370 for the next five seasons. Seeing McCutchen hit 35-40 home runs a year from here on out seems much more likely.
I think the silly-ball era has really distorted what we think of when we think power hitter. However they got so big, we got used to seeing sluggers who looked like cartoon characters. Looking at the history of baseball, that clearly isn't necessary.
I'll defer to you guys on McCutchen. Unfortunately, I've only seen him play a handful of times. He looks excellent but it isn't much of a sample size. Hopefully, they'll start showing the Pirates more.
I like that. It's a good counterpoint to the idea that Willie Mays would not be a big power hitter if he played today, just because all of today's big power hitters are 6'4 and 235.
Though Bonds was a good counterpoint himself before he went Baroids. He was a consistent 40 homer per year guy while weighing probably 185.
I suspect that this is more about semantics than baseball. I think McCutchen's probably taken a major leap forward, and that his new level will be something like .310/.390/.530 ... let's suppose he does settle in at something like that over the next few years. Can't I call his 2012 a fluke? He's beating his career OPS by 250 points. He's only going to sustain some percentage of that.
(Just kidding, it's Ryan Braun)
People, and athletes, have become larger in general. Mays and Aaron would probably weigh 20lbs more with modern diet and exercise techniques. You're right that it is possible to hit tons of homeruns without being huge, I was simply pointing out that it looks different when you see someone do it these days.
Eric Davis was pretty skinny, and he had monster power. All about bat speed and wrist strength.
All about bat speed and wrist strength.
Timing first.
Maybe. But "fluke" connotes something way out of line with what he is capable of. Truly great players have great years, year after year, with some years far more outstanding than others. I don't think of those as "flukes", so much as I think of them as being at the far edge of their abilities.
Davey Johnson hitting 42 homers feels like a fluke. Mickey Mantle winning the triple crown does not, even though he obviously did not win it every year. That is the difference for me.
Remember the young Darryl Strawberry? Or the Splendid Splinter?
As #13 suggests, I think it's something of a generational thing. I remember the young Darryl Strawberry and Eric Davis very well, and they're both excellent comps to Andrew McCutchen in terms of body type and athletic ability. There's a long and distinguished history of slim guys with super-fast bat speed and strong wrists who were elite major-league home run hitters. As noted upthread, McCutchen is also reminiscent of the young Barry Bonds. But if your memory of Barry Bonds is only to the 2001-04 model and your image of power hitters is Jim Thome, Mark McGwire, and Adam Dunn, then, yeah, McCutchen looks too "skinny" to be able to hit 40 homers a year.
I also think any comparison of Trout and Harper is negligent if it doesn't mention Trout's age 19 performance and how big of a jump he's made this year when Harper is some 14 months younger.
Cameron is as much a sabermetric writer as I am a mallard duck. He's a writer who cites to stats when convenient and writes for a sabermetrically inclined website, but has neither the temperment nor intelligence to actually analyze and draw conclusions from data.
Darryl Strawberry was 6'6". Eric Davis was 6'2". They were skinny, but neither was little. Strawberry especially was considered one of the most physically imposing players in the game at the time. I don't really see either of them as being physical comps for McCutchen.
Edit: If you want a mid-80s Met for a physical comp to McCutchen, Howard Johnson is your guy. I bring this up only because I like to take every opportunity I can to remind people of how awesome Howard Johnson was for a time.
EDIT: Coke to Dan.
Translated: "Too soon."
You might be right. It's just that the annoying stats dork in me wants language to reflect mathematics, and if Loaiza's and Mantle's seasons are equally improbable (based on their "true talent" expectations, or what have you) I want to be able to use the same word to describe them.
This is true, but it does not in any way imply that his analyses and conclusions weren't lazy years ago - just that they're even worse now.
And an insufferable #######, too.
I'm not sure about your definition of "bat speed", but if what is meant is the linear velocity of the head of the bat, then taller players with a longer torque arm have an advantage.
Also, it is well-known that the mass of the bat is a factor in hitting for power. In addition, I'm pretty sure that if you do the Lagrangian for this you would also find that the mass of the hitters arms is non-negligible. (Lagrangian mechanics is a mathematical technique used to deal with, among other things, multi-hinged systems like this.) Mark McGwire really did have the optimum physique to hit for distance.
no. gary sheffield.
you can argue but you are wrong.
Mays at age 23; it doesn't seem like he weighed 170.
he is generating more backspin. he hit one at miller park that cleared 430 feet
I like the Sheffield comp though; I can say "McCutchen's a lot like Gary Sheffield" and not be laughed at quite so loudly as if I compare him to Hank Aaron.
How many standard deviations from "true talent" to be considered a fluke?
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9847&position=OF
Trying to come up with a comp for Reddick's power and swing who isn't a no-doubter Hall of Famer... um... ah, screw it. Josh Reddick is exactly the same player, hell, exactly the same person down to the cellular level, as Ken Griffey Jr.
Three weeks ago, Trout was hitting .339/.395/.592, while Harper was hitting .274/.348/.471, with Trout also having big edges in speed and defense. Yes, Harper is a year younger, but three weeks ago, Trout was obviously the better player.
Not sure if you RTFA, but I believe the poster was referring to the author's claim that 2 weeks ago the author had Harper ahead of Trout on this list.
What he said.
I clock in at 5'9" and waver b/w about 160 and 165, and I've still got a bit of chunk to my funk. An inch taller, ten pounds heavier, not an ounce of fat? Mays is probably what that looks like.
If you wanna see a skinny slugger (well, aside from Soriano), there's always Teddy Ballgame. He was a good piece taller than these guys, but he wasn't cut like them, either, at least not when he was young. But Christ, look at those forearms. It's like he's got steel cables in there.
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