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Wednesday, November 02, 2011

Dave’s 2012 Off-season (Mariner’s) Plan (Part 1)

Transactions

Trade RHP Michael Pineda, RHP Brandon League, OF Greg Halman, 3B Chone Figgins (with Seattle absorbing $16 of remaining $17 million on Figgins’ contract), and SS Carlos Triunfel to Cincinnati for 1B Joey Votto and C Yasmani Grandal.

Trade 1B Mike Carp to Milwaukee for 3B Casey McGehee and RHP Marco Estrada.

Trade OF Michael Saunders and RHP Dan Cortes to Florida for RHP Chris Volstad.

Trade LHP Cesar Jimenez to New York for OF Angel Pagan.

Sign Chris Snyder to a 1 year, $3 million contract.

Sign Erik Bedard to a 1 year, $4 million contract.

Sign Jamie Moyer to a 1 year, $500,000 contract.

And you thought Jose Lopez for Danks was a doozy…

snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 02, 2011 at 09:15 PM | 92 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: fantasy baseball, mariners

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   1. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: November 02, 2011 at 10:03 PM (#3985279)
This sounds like a great APBA league that he plays against himself.
   2. Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos Posted: November 02, 2011 at 10:10 PM (#3985281)
This one is so far into the realm of fantasy that I believe it's more likely to be a parody than any actual plan.
   3. Dan Posted: November 02, 2011 at 10:17 PM (#3985290)
The idea that you could snag Grandal in a Votto trade is just ####### absurd.

Maybe they can trade Felix Hernandez for Evan Longoria and Matt Moore too.
   4. Tricky Dick Posted: November 02, 2011 at 10:21 PM (#3985293)
I don't see that first trade as realistic. The others, who knows?
   5. Misirlou's been working for the drug squad Posted: November 02, 2011 at 10:24 PM (#3985300)
Trade OF Michael Saunders and RHP Dan Cortes to Florida for RHP Chris Volstad.


Dan Cortes hasn't been the same since he fell off that rock. "Step off George!"
   6. Dan Posted: November 02, 2011 at 10:25 PM (#3985301)
Saunders and Cortes for Volstad is pretty out there too. Not that Volstad is anything great, but he's an averageish starting pitcher, and Saunders is an outfielder who can't hit, and Cortes is a flame throwing reliever who can't throw strikes. It would be a trade of a solid starting pitcher for spare parts.
   7. JoeHova Posted: November 02, 2011 at 10:28 PM (#3985304)
It's funny that Mariners fans have spent years denigrating Carp but now he's supposed to be a tradeable commodity.
   8. Misirlou's been working for the drug squad Posted: November 02, 2011 at 10:34 PM (#3985311)
It's funny that Mariners fans have spent years denigrating Carp but now he's supposed to be a tradeable commodity.


Well, to be fair, it's Casey McGeeheehee and a 28 YO reliever with a career 79 ERA+. Seems kind of pointless.
   9. ?Donde esta Dagoberto Campaneris? Posted: November 02, 2011 at 10:39 PM (#3985315)
I think this is my favorite time of the year.

I don't follow Seattle all that close, but why would they want to trade Carp? He looked pretty impressive last year and it's not like Seattle is drowning in guys who can hit.
   10. Tom Nawrocki Posted: November 02, 2011 at 10:42 PM (#3985317)
I'd never heard of Cesar Jimenez, who turns out to be a 26-year-old hard-throwing lefthanded reliever with a 80 ERA+ in 48 major league innings, and a 4.23 ERA in 257 AAA innings. Is Cameron not aware that Angel Pagan is actually somewhat valuable?
   11. Kiko Sakata Posted: November 02, 2011 at 10:49 PM (#3985321)
I don't follow Seattle all that close, but why would they want to trade Carp?


I assume because they just acquired Joey Votto in this fantasy. And they traded away Figgins so they need a new 3B, which I guess McGehee technically is.
   12. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 02, 2011 at 11:09 PM (#3985328)
Trade RHP Michael Pineda, RHP Brandon League, OF Greg Halman, 3B Chone Figgins (with Seattle absorbing $16 of remaining $17 million on Figgins’ contract), and SS Carlos Triunfel to Cincinnati for 1B Joey Votto and C Yasmani Grandal.

.... and the Reds GM hangs up the phone without countering... ok maybe he suggests some bum in place of Grandal, and asks for something else from Seattle, Pineda might be interesting enough to get a call back, but that offer as is wouldn't fly

Trade 1B Mike Carp to Milwaukee for 3B Casey McGehee and RHP Marco Estrada.

Yeah, I'd do that if I was Milwaukee, McGehee's 2011 is in line with his minor league stats, Estrada;s MLB K rate to date is quite bit higher than you'd expect from his minor league numbers- if his K rate regresses he'll be awful, not that Carp is all that- somewhere between Cust and Mike Jacobs, pretty pointless trade overall...

Trade OF Michael Saunders and RHP Dan Cortes to Florida for RHP Chris Volstad.

Gee 2 ex-prospects for one ex-prospect... My initial impression was that Volstad was a borderline LAIM (League average innings muncher) nope he's not that good- he's awful quite frankly, but so is Saunders... If I'm Florida I might do it, because Saunders did have an intriguing year every now and then in the minors...

Trade LHP Cesar Jimenez to New York for OF Angel Pagan.

Jimenez isn't worth the 2011 version of Pagan, and isn't within a lightyear of the 2009/10 version, as a Met Fan (who isn't even a Pagan fan) let me tell Dave to go #### himself over this one.

Sign Chris Snyder to a 1 year, $3 million contract.
too much $
Sign Erik Bedard to a 1 year, $4 million contract.
too little for a one year deal- Bedard is likely gonna be worth $10-20mm on performance or $-0-, no inbetween...
Sign Jamie Moyer to a 1 year, $500,000 contract.
sure why the hell not make him your pitching coach while you are at it.
   13. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 02, 2011 at 11:16 PM (#3985332)
but he's an averageish starting pitcher

no he's not
It would be a trade of a solid starting pitcher for spare parts.
No, it wouldn't be. Among the 160 SPs with 200+ IP from 2009-2011 he's 134th in ERA+ he's a borderline 5th starter, and his peripherals do not suggest an imminent breakout to usefullness

Is Cameron not aware that Angel Pagan is actually somewhat valuable?

If you read the wrote up, oddly enough, yes he is aware of that...
   14. The Long Arm of Rudy Law Posted: November 02, 2011 at 11:27 PM (#3985342)
This is the sixth-best plan in baseball.
   15. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: November 02, 2011 at 11:29 PM (#3985345)
I guess the Moyer deal could happen.
   16. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 02, 2011 at 11:51 PM (#3985363)
Cameron's being a huge jerk in the comments under his proposal, too.
   17. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 02, 2011 at 11:56 PM (#3985370)
Cameron's being a huge jerk in the comments under his proposal, too.

Gee, there's a shocker.
   18. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 03, 2011 at 12:02 AM (#3985379)
Kind of reminds me of this, actually. Anyone else remember that?
   19. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 03, 2011 at 12:07 AM (#3985386)
I’m sorry, but your opinion without evidence is worth very little. Go through the history of trades and show how you’re correct. Use facts to support your claims. Otherwise, there’s no real point in having a discussion. You can believe what you want, but if you’re not willing to go beyond “I think this because I think this”, talking with you is pointless.


How about Dave you go through your history of proposed trades????
   20. vortex of dissipation Posted: November 03, 2011 at 12:11 AM (#3985388)
Trade RHP Michael Pineda, RHP Brandon League, OF Greg Halman, 3B Chone Figgins (with Seattle absorbing $16 of remaining $17 million on Figgins’ contract), and SS Carlos Triunfel to Cincinnati for 1B Joey Votto and C Yasmani Grandal.


Throw Felix Hernandez in, and the Reds might consider it...
   21. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 03, 2011 at 12:13 AM (#3985391)
I don't see that first trade as realistic.


It's not.

Dave's arguing (in the comments) that Pineda plus the salary relief on Votto's contract are themselves worth Votto. The issue here is that while Pineda's value may be centered around the number that Dave presents, the probable variance - especially on the downside - is bigger than the variance for Votto, because of the injury factor. It is far more likely that Pineda, instead of being +7, is going to be +1 or +2 than it is that Votto is going to drop 5-6 wins per year. The Reds are assuming a lot more risk of underperformance with Pineda than they are with Votto.

The other pieces don't give the Reds much of anything that they can use. Triunfel's skill set is not a whole lot different than that of Didi Gregorius, they are almost exactly the same age (Gregorius is 11 days older), and Gregorius has a better glove. The Reds also have Billy Hamilton moving up the chain. Halman certainly isn't an upgrade over Heisey (heck, in many ways I'd rather have Dave Sappelt, too). As far as Figgins goes - Rolen's still under contract for 2012 and the Reds have Francisco and Frazier hanging around waiting for a chance.

At a minimum, I don't see the Reds doing any deal for Votto where they don't get back at least two young power arms and a real power corner bat.

-- MWE
   22. Greg K Posted: November 03, 2011 at 12:18 AM (#3985396)
On the topic of more realistic moves...

D-Backs sign John McDonald to 2 years/$3 million.

Who'd have figured that after 2009 he'd have TWO separate two year contracts left in his future.
   23. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: November 03, 2011 at 12:18 AM (#3985397)
I would say that Cameron had descended into self-parody, if he didn't already live down there fulltime.
   24. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: November 03, 2011 at 12:20 AM (#3985398)
I'm not sure what Smoak's worth at this point, but wouldn't he likely be included in any package for Votto?

I don't follow the Reds, but is a Votto trade seen as inevitable? I'd think he's one of the young stars in the game a franchise would be willing to spend a lot on to retain.
   25. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 03, 2011 at 12:21 AM (#3985400)
Throw Felix Hernandez in, and the Reds might consider it...

It's funny, M's fans go nuts when idiot Yankee fans throw out "Montero, Nova and Nunez for Felix"

Felix is worth 5-6 WAR, but Nova's worth 2-3, Montero 2-3 and Nunez 1, plus the M's save $20M p.a.

Hell, Nova plus the $20M is worth Hernandez alone.
   26. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 03, 2011 at 12:22 AM (#3985401)

I don't follow the Reds, but is a Votto trade seen as inevitable? I'd think he's one of the young stars in the game a franchise would be willing to spend a lot on to retain.


The GM has said they're not trading him.
   27. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 03, 2011 at 12:25 AM (#3985402)
I don't follow the Reds, but is a Votto trade seen as inevitable?


The Reds have Yonder Alonso, who is (a) ready for the majors, (b) thought to be something close to Votto with the bat, (c) probably limited to 1B defensively and (d) much cheaper for the next few years. Hence the theory that the Reds would be inclined to cash in Votto for whatever they could get, distribute the talent better, and have a better chance to win going forward.

-- MWE
   28. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 03, 2011 at 12:29 AM (#3985406)
The Reds have Yonder Alonso, who is (a) ready for the majors, (b) thought to be something close to Votto with the bat, (c) probably limited to 1B defensively and (d) much cheaper for the next few years. Hence the theory that the Reds would be inclined to cash in Votto for whatever they could get, distribute the talent better, and have a better chance to win going forward.

-- MWE


Yeah, but trading Votto now has got to crater fan interest, doesn't it?

They've got no other big contracts. I'd think they keep Votto and move Alonso, or just put him in LF and live with the craptastic D.
   29. Good cripple hitter Posted: November 03, 2011 at 12:35 AM (#3985414)
On the topic of more realistic moves...

D-Backs sign John McDonald to 2 years/$3 million.

Who'd have figured that after 2009 he'd have TWO separate two year contracts left in his future.


Good for the Prime Minister, but I'm kind of disappointed that the John McDonald era in Toronto is definitively over. I guess I took it for granted that he'd sign with Toronto again.
   30. ?Donde esta Dagoberto Campaneris? Posted: November 03, 2011 at 12:36 AM (#3985415)
salary relief on Votto's contract

That's got to be an all-timer. If the Reds aren't willing to spend 2/27 for Votto, they need to move to AAA.
   31. Mark S. is bored Posted: November 03, 2011 at 01:15 AM (#3985431)
salary relief on Votto's contract

That's got to be an all-timer. If the Reds aren't willing to spend 2/27 for Votto, they need to move to AAA.


Why spend 2/$27 if you have someone making minimum who's almost as good.
   32. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 03, 2011 at 01:16 AM (#3985434)
Why spend 2/$27 if you have someone making minimum who's almost as good.

Credibility with the fans.
   33. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 03, 2011 at 01:19 AM (#3985435)
Re 27 and 28 alonso is not close to Votto with the bat Votto is special Yonder is not he's fungible
   34. Ebessan Posted: November 03, 2011 at 01:23 AM (#3985436)
Yonder could be a star. Votto is. That's how it goes.
   35. DA Baracus Posted: November 03, 2011 at 01:24 AM (#3985439)
I like that a 31 year old, a 33 year old and a 49 year old give the team "some upside."
   36. Walt Davis Posted: November 03, 2011 at 01:25 AM (#3985440)
Even if you buy Cameron's argument on the Votto trade, surely some other team beats that offer. Plus the Ms simply end up with the same Votto "problem" as the Reds have, only a bit moreso. I think Votto has already said he's going to test the market when he gets the chance and there's no reason he'd change his mind for the Ms. And the Ms are nowhere near competing and even adding Votto for two years won't change that.

Plus there's a more obvious trade staring them in the face -- Pineda for Alonso, maybe even get the Reds to toss in something else given Pineda is more "proven."
   37. mex4173 Posted: November 03, 2011 at 01:26 AM (#3985442)
Good for the Prime Minister, but I'm kind of disappointed that the John McDonald era in Toronto is definitively over. I guess I took it for granted that he'd sign with Toronto again.


This.
   38. madvillain Posted: November 03, 2011 at 01:26 AM (#3985444)
It's magic mushroom season in Seattle, perhaps Dave has been eating and posting again. On a side note, I had an interview for a research gig on the Mariners for a small publishing company and after it was over we shot the #### a bit -- Cameron and how much of a dick he is came up. I would be surprised if anyone in the industry likes him. Respects maybe, but like? I doubt it.
   39. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: November 03, 2011 at 01:52 AM (#3985462)
His comments are...wow. People who behave in this manner make me wonder if they're unhappy about life in general. He's quite uptight. Maybe someone should get him stoned and buy him an autographed Ichiro baseball.
   40. Dr. Vaux Posted: November 03, 2011 at 02:03 AM (#3985469)
People who behave in this manner make me wonder if they're unhappy about life in general.


Given that he has cancer, he may in fact not be too happy about life at the moment.
   41. PreservedFish Posted: November 03, 2011 at 02:07 AM (#3985474)
My God, what a loser. He bases everything on Fangraphs Bucks and then shouts everyone else out of the room because they haven't "proved" anything.
   42. Misirlou's been working for the drug squad Posted: November 03, 2011 at 02:08 AM (#3985475)
Why spend 2/$27 if you have someone making minimum who's almost as good.

Credibility with the fans.


Right. Votto is worth more to the Reds than another team. Thus, in order to get him, another team has got not not merely match his value (which i think Cameron did not do in the first place), but exceed it. That's what's wrong with most fanboy's trade proposals.

Look, say your house is worth $200,000. But you like where you live, you are comfortable and friendly with your neighbors, your kids have friends close by. You have no desire to move. Would you sell your house merely because someone offered you market value for it? Of course not. The house may have an abstract market value of $200,000, but it's worth more to you, because of other things not valued by the market.

Dave Cameron may or may not be a cromulent analyst. I don't know. But this proposal and the justification behind are are just ridiculous.
   43. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: November 03, 2011 at 02:11 AM (#3985477)
Given that he has cancer, he may in fact not be too happy about life at the moment.

I saw that after I had posted and looked at USSMariner for the first time in a long time. That's honestly a shame. But not only is the behavior nothing new for him, it's also all the more reason he shouldn't spend his afternoons stressing himself out on message boards arguing with people who don't agree with him.
   44. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 03, 2011 at 02:25 AM (#3985484)
Kudos for ambition, but I don't see other teams pulling any of those four trades except maybe the Carp trade. Someone needs to smoke the objective pipe.

I will say what I said the last time he did this - at least he puts himself out there. I do grow a bit weary by all the stat guys who merely criticize GM moves without offering any of their own solutions. Dave's plan may be fanciful, but at least its a plan.
   45. JJ1986 Posted: November 03, 2011 at 02:36 AM (#3985492)
Dave has no understanding of the value of roster spots. 2 players producing 10 WAR are much more valuable than 5 players producing 10 WAR even if the salaries of the groups are equal. Likewise 1 player producing 7 WAR is more valuable than one producing 5 and one producing 2.
   46. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 03, 2011 at 02:54 AM (#3985500)
Dave has no understanding of the value of roster spots. 2 players producing 10 WAR are much more valuable than 5 players producing 10 WAR even if the salaries of the groups are equal. Likewise 1 player producing 7 WAR is more valuable than one producing 5 and one producing 2.

Right. This is the No. 1 mistake in these types of trade proposals.
   47. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: November 03, 2011 at 02:59 AM (#3985503)
Why spend 2/$27 if you have someone making minimum who's almost as good.


You're going to trade the best hitter in the NL and replace him with a guy who might not pan out?

/facepalm
   48. shattnering his Dominicano G Strings on that Mound Posted: November 03, 2011 at 02:59 AM (#3985505)
In what way is Votto a 'problem' for the Reds? How is 'salary relief' an appealing facet of trading one of the best players in the NL? It's not like he's Vernon Wells... I don't get it.
   49. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 03, 2011 at 03:07 AM (#3985508)
If the Reds really needed to save money that badly, they'd just decline the option of Francisco Cordero ($12 mill) or trade Brandon Phillips ($12 mill). They only have $52 million in salary obligations for next year with Volquez and Nick Masset being the only semi-serious arb cases. I don't get why they'd need salary relief by trading their best player who doesn't even make that much.
   50. DA Baracus Posted: November 03, 2011 at 03:11 AM (#3985510)
They don't need salary relief. It's just something fanboys say to make their lopsided proposal sound better.
   51. Austin Posted: November 03, 2011 at 03:35 AM (#3985523)
Yeah, Dave is normally fairly reasonable, but he seems to be completely off his rocker this time. Only a couple (at most) of these suggestions are at all plausible: Snyder and perhaps Moyer. The rest are just loony. I really hope that he doesn't just ignore the criticisms and denounce them as "uninformed" or some other such BS, because it's pretty obvious that he's succumbed to fan bias.

And to be clear, I'm normally very particular about people spelling out their reasoning quantitatively in an argument, so I can appreciate Dave's position that the people just calling his proposal dumb don't have a valid position. But he seems to be completely unwilling to accept any counterargument even if it does use WAR, salary, historical precedent, etc.
   52. ?Donde esta Dagoberto Campaneris? Posted: November 03, 2011 at 03:36 AM (#3985524)
To be fair to the old Sixer, he doesn't actually say "salary relief"- thank God - he just notes that the Reds do, in fact, save money on the deal overall. It's still evidence of extreme kookery in my view - are there even a dozen guys who you would trade straight up for Votto- but not "salary relief" insane.

He did, however write this, "if all you’ve come to say is “that’s dumb” (or make factually incorrect statements about league minimum salaries), then you’re not bringing anything to the table." To which I'll concede, I'm not bringing anything to the table.

Why spend 2/$27 if you have someone making minimum who's almost as good.

A few people have hit on some key points, but the biggest deal is that even if Alonso were that good, I'd still never trade Votto. At worst, if I thought I couldn't re-up him, I'd stick him in left and suffer through another two 150 OPS+ seasons. He's an incredible player with a favorable deal. You just don't trade guys like that unless an extraordinary return comes back- and you'd never do it to save money, he's an impossibly good use of funds for the next two years. I like Pineda, but I don't see him as anywhere near what Votto should cost.
   53. madvillain Posted: November 03, 2011 at 03:44 AM (#3985527)
Yeah, Dave is normally fairly reasonable, but he seems to be completely off his rocker this time.


John Danks says hello.
   54. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: November 03, 2011 at 03:57 AM (#3985528)
I really hope that he doesn't just ignore the criticisms and denounce them as "uninformed" or some other such BS, because it's pretty obvious that he's succumbed to fan bias.
Too late. Years too late.
   55. akrasian Posted: November 03, 2011 at 04:02 AM (#3985530)
You're going to trade the best hitter in the NL

Who's talking about trading Kemp? Or are you talking about Pujols?

Votto is outstanding. He wasn't the best hitter in 2011, that was Kemp. He's not the best hitter over a period of a few years - that is Pujols. He IS a player that any team would be happy to get. The Reds are not going to trade him this offseason, unless they get overwhelmed with an offer - which is unlikely.
   56. bookbook Posted: November 03, 2011 at 04:25 AM (#3985538)
The point with Angel Pagan is that you're trading a bit piece to reward the Mets for trading him to you instead of nontendering him. Of course, if the Mets weren't planning to nontender him, it don't much work.
   57. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 03, 2011 at 04:35 AM (#3985545)
Only a couple (at most) of these suggestions are at all plausible: Snyder and perhaps Moyer.

And even Moyer should get only a minor league deal and a plane ticket. A roster spot and guaranteed money to a 49-yr-old seems kind of nuts, even if it's "only" $500,000.
   58. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: November 03, 2011 at 05:11 AM (#3985559)
Maybe it's the ballpark and the great fielders, but the M's sure seem fine on the pitching side of things every year under the new regime. It definitely makes sense to shop Pineda for hitting, but why go for Votto when he's two years away from becoming crazy expensive? Someone brought up trading him straight up for Yonder, which makes a lot more sense to me, provided the Reds give another prospect in the deal. What about Pineda to the Yanks for Montero and an Adam Warren type?
   59. Austin Posted: November 03, 2011 at 05:19 AM (#3985562)
I think this guy captures it pretty well:

Commenter: "All you’ve done to back this up is by applying the logic and math of WARs and saying that that’s enough to prove the legitimacy of the trade, while everyone else in the thread pretty much agrees that the offer is a bit light, to be polite."

Dave: "I’ve provided evidence. You’ve provided an opinion. I’m sorry, but your opinion without evidence is worth very little. Go through the history of trades and show how you’re correct. Use facts to support your claims. Otherwise, there’s no real point in having a discussion. You can believe what you want, but if you’re not willing to go beyond “I think this because I think this”, talking with you is pointless."

Commenter: "If anything, the onus is on you to show that this is actually how the trading landscape works. Show me a quote of a GM who, when commenting on a trade, said they liked the way the WARs added up, or how a guy really just put them 1-2 wins over the edge, or something like that. You’re proposing an underlying logic to these MLB trades which doesn’t emulate real life. If you can show me that I am missing something, that GMs are indeed adding the WARs and the like, then I will relent, but you’re the one needing to show proof, not me."


Dave seems to think he's on unshakable intellectual footing if he hides behind the position of "the burden of proof is on you to show that I'm wrong." But I think it's obvious that he needs to look at the history of vaguely comparable trades and see if teams actually value these types of players in a way that comes close to WAR, $/WAR, and the value of salary relief. Or, at least, he should actually link to research showing as much rather than just saying that it's a known fact. (By the way, I disagree with the commenter in one way - it's not necessary to show how teams think, just as long as their decisions match pretty closely to what this model would tell you.)
   60. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: November 03, 2011 at 05:53 AM (#3985564)
Just remember, it was this same application of "evidence" that led to the whole "6th best organization" crap. Cameron's done some fine work, but he also brings that silly, arrogant stubbornness that makes the general public think sabermatricians are all supernerds who live in their moms' basements.
   61. Tom Nawrocki Posted: November 03, 2011 at 06:03 AM (#3985568)
The whole business of "the WARs add up" was also his justification for the Danks-for-Lopez-and-crap trade.
   62. rr Posted: November 03, 2011 at 06:05 AM (#3985569)
A guy in the thread posted a lot of recent trades for similar guys: Gonzalez, Teixeira, et al. The problem with that of course is that Votto has two years to go on his deal, so the Reds really don't have to do anything with him right now, unless they get an insane offer. Yes, they wil have less leverage if they trade him later, but it seems more logical to keep him for now and see what they can do with their team.
   63. Walt Davis Posted: November 03, 2011 at 07:36 AM (#3985575)
Right. There is a danger that if the Reds wait another year, they won't get this good of a haul. And the Padres-Gonzalez scenario is not that far off ... the problem being I think the Padres were dumb to trade Gonzalez who was still dirt cheap and the Padres were coming off a good year. But, in that division, the Reds should be competitive over the next two years so they really have no incentive to trade Votto unless they're bowled over. Yes, I said the same thing about the Padres ... and now that guy is GM of my Cubs ... hmmmmm.

Plus we all know that Dusty would just blow out Pineda's arm. :-)

And as somebody noted, if the Reds want salary relief now, they trade Phillips who is an FA after 2012.
   64. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: November 03, 2011 at 11:06 AM (#3985583)
Wouldn't it be more realistic for the M's to work out a trade for Alonso using Pineda than for Votto? If Alonso is nearly as good as Votto and cheaper, it would appear to me that's who they should go for. Or, instead of trading a lot of talent for a player who they will feel a lot of pressure to extend to a big contract--after all, he just cost them a lot of talent--why not throw the Votto extension money at Prince Fielder and keep Pineda and all those other guys. The M's are not a poor team. Also, no one wants Figgins. If they are really willing to eat that much of his salary, they should just release him outright.
   65. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 03, 2011 at 01:05 PM (#3985633)
The problem with trading for Alonso is that they have Smoak and while Votto is a clear upgrade over Smoke it is not clear that Yonder is- or if he is even an upgrade at all in fact I think its far from clear that he'd be an upgrade over Carp if Yonder's future is 1b/dh
   66. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: November 03, 2011 at 01:16 PM (#3985641)
The problem with trading for Alonso is that they have Smoak and while Votto is a clear upgrade over Smoke it is not clear that Yonder is- or if he is even an upgrade at all in fact I think its far from clear that he'd be an upgrade over Carp if Yonder's future is 1b/dh

Which would just reinforce why the Reds shouldn't trade Votto. Ah well. That's as much time as I'll spend thinking about the Mariners this winter. I'm taxed!
   67. Guapo Posted: November 03, 2011 at 01:39 PM (#3985647)
From the Gammons thread just posted:

Joey Votto could possible be a trade candidate if another team offers enough pitching.


See? Cameron was right!

Also, I for one love these kind of articles with wild trade suggestions, even if they're a tiny bit unrealistic. They usually inspire really good discussions.
   68. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: November 03, 2011 at 01:48 PM (#3985653)
I like Dave and agree with him often enough when he's not talking about the Mariners. But proposals like these tell me that he doesn't use house rules when and if he plays OOTP.
   69. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 03, 2011 at 02:23 PM (#3985676)
All MLB batters, 2009-2011, WAR Runs batting (per BBREF):

Rk Player Rbat
1 Albert Pujols 174
2 Miguel Cabrera 170
3 Prince Fielder 153
4 Adrian Gonzalez 152
5 Joey Votto 150
6 Ryan Braun 126
7 Jose Bautista 121
8 Matt Holliday 115
9 Paul Konerko 94
10 Joe Mauer 90

So Dave thinks he can get #5 there for Pineda and some flotsam, because 25 year old Yonder Alonso has hit .296/.364/.478 in 2.5 years in AAA is cheaper and "almost" as good... (OK Yonder did that in the IL, not the PCL, so those are not bad AAA numbers, but it's not like he can sniff 26 year old Lucas Duda as a hitter, .310/.398/.606 in the IL- 124 OPS+ in the majors ion 400+ PAs)

You do not trade Votto because you have Yonder Alonso - you trade Alonso for what you can get because you have a Votto - and how on earth is Alonso worth more than Grandal, a guy Dave expects the Reds to chip in? 12th overall pick in 2010's draft, a catcher who just hit .305/.401/.500 between 3 levels in 2011? Oooh that's right, Alonso hit .330/.398/.545 in 98 MLB PAs last year- lets' give him the semi-annul Mike Jacobs trophy (Jacobs hit .310/.375/.710 in 112 PAs in his age 24 cup of coffee- and let's not forget that Jacobs was a league average hitter for 3-4 years there- and owns a nice shiny .275/.345/.484 AAA slash line- not far off Alonso's .296/.364/.478 AAA slash line.

I'm sorry to pile on, but it just seems that Cameron has no conception of who/what Joey Votto is relative to other MLB players
   70. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 03, 2011 at 02:38 PM (#3985688)
BBRef now has payroll estimations (which is awesome). The Mariners have an estimated payroll of $95 mill next year without making any moves. That strikes me as really high for a pretty lousy team.

The areas where they can improve most are LF and 3B. How do they improve those two positions?
   71. Spahn Insane Posted: November 03, 2011 at 03:00 PM (#3985713)
3B Chone Figgins (with Seattle absorbing $16 of remaining $17 million on Figgins’ contract)

If they're really serious about dumping Figgins's contract, one would hope they'd be willing to eat more than sixteen dollars. Surely at least $18.75, just to show good faith.
   72. hokieneer Posted: November 03, 2011 at 03:05 PM (#3985720)
You're going to trade the best hitter in the NL

Who's talking about trading Kemp? Or are you talking about Pujols?



Depends on end points. The last 2 years Kemps OPS+ is 138, Fielder 149, Pujols 162, Votto 163

Go back 3 years: Kemp: 134, Fielder 155, Votto 161, Pujols 171

Pujols has declined each of the last 4 years. I understand he's still putting up a 150 OPS+, but he's still declining. I think an argument can be made that right now Votto is the best hitter in the NL. If not he's clearly 2nd to Pujols.
   73. JJ1986 Posted: November 03, 2011 at 03:10 PM (#3985722)
How do they improve those two positions?


There are a bunch of LF options they could sign. DeJesus, Crisp, Kubel. Matt Murton maybe, but I'd prefer a lefty to spot with Wells. If I were running a team I'd try to get Seth Smith, but the Rockies might be big fans since no one has yet done this.

There are no FA 3Bmen available and I wouldn't be comfortable with Liddi or Seager. I'd try to get Daniel Murphy or Edwin Encarnacion in a trade or maybe wait and see if Martin Prado get NT'd.

Then I'd add a RH bat to spell Carp and Smoak (Jackson? Nady?), go cheap at catcher (let Olivo start?) and hope like hell that Gutierrez isn't done in CF.

I'd keep Pineda and blow my budget on a pitcher (hopefully Darvish). Play to your park's strengths.

This is still at most a 75 win team.
   74. hokieneer Posted: November 03, 2011 at 03:13 PM (#3985725)
And as somebody noted, if the Reds want salary relief now, they trade Phillips who is an FA after 2012.


Hell not picking up Fransisco Cordero's & Phillip's option is going to save $24 mil, or nearly 1/3 of the entire payroll.

The Reds have ~$28 mil coming off the books for '12 (realistically it's $16 mil as I expect Phillips' option to be picked up), with no real big time arb cases this year. Plus Rolen's last year might be movable if they REALLY need to clear salary.

Bottom line, salary relief is the last thing this organization needs right now. This is a team that won the NL central in '10 and is expecting to compete again in '12 and '13 with a very manageable payroll because of a young cheap core of players.
   75. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 03, 2011 at 03:20 PM (#3985732)
Good for the Prime Minister, but I'm kind of disappointed that the John McDonald era in Toronto is definitively over. I guess I took it for granted that he'd sign with Toronto again.


The Blue Jays will pick him up in a trade (for cash) at the August deadline when they are busy holding off the Rays for the wild-card spot.
   76. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 03, 2011 at 03:23 PM (#3985735)
The areas where they can improve most are LF and 3B. How do they improve those two positions?


LF: Peguero... minor league numbers do not look terrible, until you realize he played in the PCL and the Calif League (High Desert to boot), put up a 75 in the majors- is likely a little better hitter than that... 90 OPS+... so no he's no kind of solution,

Saunders- he's pretty much the same hitter Peguero is, a few more walks, a few less Ks, but pretty much the same OPS range

Trayvon... see Saunders

Kyle Seager.... how is his Dee? He might be able to OPS+ 95-105, at the high end he'd be an adequate MLB 3B- he looks to be a slightly better hitter than Peguero/Saunders/Trayvon et al and a 3B doesn't have to hit as much as an LF to be useful...

They also need Guitierrez to get back up to near 100 OPS+
and they need Ichiro to not have a fork in his back...

I think the Mariners need to go outside their organization trades/FAs...
This organization is in such bad shape I can't see them competing in 2012 and 2013 looks iffy, unless they start making major moves now:
Mariners' PYTHAG wins 2006-2011
78, 79, 67, 75, 59, 67

basically this team has cratered like the pre-Dombrowski Tigers, the Littlefield Pirates and the Baird Royals- only the Pythag Faeires smiling on them in 2007 and 2009 has allowed the team and it's fanboys to delude themselves- terrible organization when Cameron ranked them 6th they were at the time(with some hindsight benefit I admit) definitely worse than 20th, I think they should regard the team as having to be rebuilt from ground up, jettison everyone over 30 (except Ichiro- he's an icon and you are not getting anything for him at this point, and you can't fill every hole in 2012 anyway) and think about trading King Felix - at least see what's out there.
   77. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 03, 2011 at 03:35 PM (#3985744)

There are no FA 3Bmen available and I wouldn't be comfortable with Liddi or Seager. I'd try to get Daniel Murphy or Edwin Encarnacion in a trade or maybe wait and see if Martin Prado get NT'd.


I kinda like Ian Stewart as a reclamation project. As for LF I dunno, maybe see if Logan Morrison has worn out his welcome in Florida? Is there anything left to salvage of Felix Pie's career? Maybe see if the Jays are done with Travis Snider.

But I don't really see a lot of moves that can make this a good team. They should probably work towards making this a good team for the last year or two of Felix's contract, and that may mean trading assets like Brandon League and Jason Vargas for prospects.
   78. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: November 03, 2011 at 03:50 PM (#3985759)
Milwaukee would do that deal pretty quickly.

Casey may rebound, but I am adamant that he is not a long-term option at third. Better to give the job to Green and move along.

Carp could hit 25 homers in Miller Park and has to be a defensive improvement.

Estrada? He has his uses but if Doug Melvin cannot replace that type of talent he needs to go paint barns or something.
   79. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 03, 2011 at 03:54 PM (#3985766)
As for LF I dunno, maybe see if Logan Morrison has worn out his welcome in Florida?


I have Morrison as a cheap keeper on my NL only Roto team, so it pains me to say, but yes, that is something the Mariners *should* look into- but I'd have to warn you, he's a similar type player/hitter (but better) to Smoak whose game doesn't seem to translate real well in the Northwest...

With regard to Ian Stewart, aside from struggling at altitude and then trying to see how he'll play in Seattle, if given the dubious choice of starting him or Seager at 3B, I'd try Seager first at this point...
   80. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: November 03, 2011 at 03:55 PM (#3985767)
Anyone know how Dave is doing health-wise? I hope he's kicking leukemia's ass.
   81. Best Dressed Chicken in Town Posted: November 03, 2011 at 04:22 PM (#3985795)
Fangraphs Bucks

What's the exchange rate with dollar bucks?
   82. Lupa Nella Posted: November 03, 2011 at 04:49 PM (#3985815)
Well, leukemia has a really long winning streak so Vegas has installed it as the odds on favorite...
   83. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: November 03, 2011 at 05:10 PM (#3985840)
Right. There is a danger that if the Reds wait another year, they won't get this good of a haul. And the Padres-Gonzalez scenario is not that far off ... the problem being I think the Padres were dumb to trade Gonzalez who was still dirt cheap and the Padres were coming off a good year.


It seems to me that the Padres did a much better job at evaluating where they were than you did Walt. Yeah, they won 90 games, but a lot of people (myself included) said at the time that they massively overachieved and projected much worse than that going forward. You can argue that they were dumb to trade Adrian for the package they got, but this season validates their decision to trade him. And it's not clear that they had a better deal on the table. They weren't one Gonzalez away from contending, and holding on to him for a non-contending year, and then watching him leave for two picks would have been the dumb thing to do.
   84. zenbitz Posted: November 03, 2011 at 05:11 PM (#3985841)
Look, I'm all for hot-stove rosterbation and arm chair GMing... but I draw the line at suggesting trades.

I mean - lets say Dave's valuation is correct on the Votto proposal, and it is equal value. That doesn't mean the Reds will do it! And what's the point of making equal value trades anyway? The only reasons are:

1) trade future value for present (i.e, prospects for vets)

2) change of scenery

3) redistribute talent (you have 2 starting ML quality 3Bs)

I guess DC is trying to make point (3) about the Reds... but still, GM motivations and "the other" teams plans make this totally opaque.

So just, stop, everyone.
   85. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 03, 2011 at 05:13 PM (#3985843)
It seems to me that the Padres did a much better job at evaluating where they were than you did Walt. Yeah, they won 90 games, but a lot of people (myself included) said at the time that they massively overachieved and projected much worse than that going forward. You can argue that they were dumb to trade Adrian for the package they got, but this season validates their decision to trade him. And it's not clear that they had a better deal on the table. They weren't one Gonzalez away from contending, and holding on to him for a non-contending year, and then watching him leace for two picks would have been the dumb thing to do.

Still doesn't validate the trade. There's no way they don't an equivalent package this off-season, or even at next year's trade deadline. Half a season of Carlos Beltran got 70% of the package Gonzalez did.

If there's no good offer out there, you have to hold him. They still had 2 years of control.
   86. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 03, 2011 at 05:15 PM (#3985851)
but I draw the line at suggesting trades.

Why?

So just, stop, everyone.

It's a long way til baseball. Better BS trade discussions than more politics.
   87. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: November 03, 2011 at 06:18 PM (#3985910)
They still had 2 years of control.


Uhm. No.
   88. Dan Posted: November 03, 2011 at 06:38 PM (#3985927)
There's no way they don't an equivalent package this off-season, or even at next year's trade deadline.


It's pretty hard to get any value in trade for a guy who's eligible for free agency.
   89. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 03, 2011 at 06:40 PM (#3985929)

It's pretty hard to get any value in trade for a guy who's eligible for free agency.


Ooops, got Gonzalez and Votto's deals cross-wired in my head.
   90. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: November 03, 2011 at 06:43 PM (#3985936)
It's pretty hard to get any value in trade for a guy who's eligible for free agency.


You can always try calling Ned.
   91. epoc Posted: November 04, 2011 at 02:48 AM (#3986221)
That plan looks good, but Dave forgot to mention that the Mariners also trade Felix Hernandez and Taijuan Walker for Jose Tabata. Jack Zduriencik was unable to say no because Neal Huntington explained so clearly that the surplus values matched up evenly. Unfortunately for the Pirates, they were subsequently forced to trade Andrew McCutchen to Oakland for 25 grade-C prospects.
   92. knhmz4V546obr Posted: November 05, 2011 at 03:51 AM (#3986895)
BBRef now has payroll estimations (which is awesome). The Mariners have an estimated payroll of $95 mill next year without making any moves. That strikes me as really high for a pretty lousy team.

They estimated $31M for arbitration eligible players, which is way off. Vargas $4M, League $5M and that's about it. (I think it is computer generated and including players it shouldn't like Aardsma, Cust, Rodriguez, Laffey, all of whom are no longer in the organization)

So it's closer to a $75M payroll.

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