User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
|
Demarini, Easton and TPX Baseball Bats
|
AllianceTickets.com has cheap MLB Tickets. Get all your Colorado Rockies Tickets, Seattle Mariners Tickets, San Francisco Giants Tickets and all your favorite baseball tickets here. We also carry cheap Denver Broncos Tickets, Seattle Seahawks Tickets and Denver Nuggets Tickets. |
For wholesale prices on baseball gifts and equipment, check these stores out! |
Page rendered in 0.6075 seconds
54 querie(s) executed
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
1. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: November 02, 2011 at 10:03 PM (#3985279)Maybe they can trade Felix Hernandez for Evan Longoria and Matt Moore too.
Dan Cortes hasn't been the same since he fell off that rock. "Step off George!"
Well, to be fair, it's Casey McGeeheehee and a 28 YO reliever with a career 79 ERA+. Seems kind of pointless.
I don't follow Seattle all that close, but why would they want to trade Carp? He looked pretty impressive last year and it's not like Seattle is drowning in guys who can hit.
I assume because they just acquired Joey Votto in this fantasy. And they traded away Figgins so they need a new 3B, which I guess McGehee technically is.
.... and the Reds GM hangs up the phone without countering... ok maybe he suggests some bum in place of Grandal, and asks for something else from Seattle, Pineda might be interesting enough to get a call back, but that offer as is wouldn't fly
Yeah, I'd do that if I was Milwaukee, McGehee's 2011 is in line with his minor league stats, Estrada;s MLB K rate to date is quite bit higher than you'd expect from his minor league numbers- if his K rate regresses he'll be awful, not that Carp is all that- somewhere between Cust and Mike Jacobs, pretty pointless trade overall...
Gee 2 ex-prospects for one ex-prospect... My initial impression was that Volstad was a borderline LAIM (League average innings muncher) nope he's not that good- he's awful quite frankly, but so is Saunders... If I'm Florida I might do it, because Saunders did have an intriguing year every now and then in the minors...
Jimenez isn't worth the 2011 version of Pagan, and isn't within a lightyear of the 2009/10 version, as a Met Fan (who isn't even a Pagan fan) let me tell Dave to go #### himself over this one.
too much $
too little for a one year deal- Bedard is likely gonna be worth $10-20mm on performance or $-0-, no inbetween...
sure why the hell not make him your pitching coach while you are at it.
no he's not
No, it wouldn't be. Among the 160 SPs with 200+ IP from 2009-2011 he's 134th in ERA+ he's a borderline 5th starter, and his peripherals do not suggest an imminent breakout to usefullness
If you read the wrote up, oddly enough, yes he is aware of that...
Gee, there's a shocker.
How about Dave you go through your history of proposed trades????
Throw Felix Hernandez in, and the Reds might consider it...
It's not.
Dave's arguing (in the comments) that Pineda plus the salary relief on Votto's contract are themselves worth Votto. The issue here is that while Pineda's value may be centered around the number that Dave presents, the probable variance - especially on the downside - is bigger than the variance for Votto, because of the injury factor. It is far more likely that Pineda, instead of being +7, is going to be +1 or +2 than it is that Votto is going to drop 5-6 wins per year. The Reds are assuming a lot more risk of underperformance with Pineda than they are with Votto.
The other pieces don't give the Reds much of anything that they can use. Triunfel's skill set is not a whole lot different than that of Didi Gregorius, they are almost exactly the same age (Gregorius is 11 days older), and Gregorius has a better glove. The Reds also have Billy Hamilton moving up the chain. Halman certainly isn't an upgrade over Heisey (heck, in many ways I'd rather have Dave Sappelt, too). As far as Figgins goes - Rolen's still under contract for 2012 and the Reds have Francisco and Frazier hanging around waiting for a chance.
At a minimum, I don't see the Reds doing any deal for Votto where they don't get back at least two young power arms and a real power corner bat.
-- MWE
D-Backs sign John McDonald to 2 years/$3 million.
Who'd have figured that after 2009 he'd have TWO separate two year contracts left in his future.
I don't follow the Reds, but is a Votto trade seen as inevitable? I'd think he's one of the young stars in the game a franchise would be willing to spend a lot on to retain.
It's funny, M's fans go nuts when idiot Yankee fans throw out "Montero, Nova and Nunez for Felix"
Felix is worth 5-6 WAR, but Nova's worth 2-3, Montero 2-3 and Nunez 1, plus the M's save $20M p.a.
Hell, Nova plus the $20M is worth Hernandez alone.
I don't follow the Reds, but is a Votto trade seen as inevitable? I'd think he's one of the young stars in the game a franchise would be willing to spend a lot on to retain.
The GM has said they're not trading him.
The Reds have Yonder Alonso, who is (a) ready for the majors, (b) thought to be something close to Votto with the bat, (c) probably limited to 1B defensively and (d) much cheaper for the next few years. Hence the theory that the Reds would be inclined to cash in Votto for whatever they could get, distribute the talent better, and have a better chance to win going forward.
-- MWE
-- MWE
Yeah, but trading Votto now has got to crater fan interest, doesn't it?
They've got no other big contracts. I'd think they keep Votto and move Alonso, or just put him in LF and live with the craptastic D.
Good for the Prime Minister, but I'm kind of disappointed that the John McDonald era in Toronto is definitively over. I guess I took it for granted that he'd sign with Toronto again.
That's got to be an all-timer. If the Reds aren't willing to spend 2/27 for Votto, they need to move to AAA.
Why spend 2/$27 if you have someone making minimum who's almost as good.
Credibility with the fans.
Plus there's a more obvious trade staring them in the face -- Pineda for Alonso, maybe even get the Reds to toss in something else given Pineda is more "proven."
This.
Given that he has cancer, he may in fact not be too happy about life at the moment.
Right. Votto is worth more to the Reds than another team. Thus, in order to get him, another team has got not not merely match his value (which i think Cameron did not do in the first place), but exceed it. That's what's wrong with most fanboy's trade proposals.
Look, say your house is worth $200,000. But you like where you live, you are comfortable and friendly with your neighbors, your kids have friends close by. You have no desire to move. Would you sell your house merely because someone offered you market value for it? Of course not. The house may have an abstract market value of $200,000, but it's worth more to you, because of other things not valued by the market.
Dave Cameron may or may not be a cromulent analyst. I don't know. But this proposal and the justification behind are are just ridiculous.
I saw that after I had posted and looked at USSMariner for the first time in a long time. That's honestly a shame. But not only is the behavior nothing new for him, it's also all the more reason he shouldn't spend his afternoons stressing himself out on message boards arguing with people who don't agree with him.
I will say what I said the last time he did this - at least he puts himself out there. I do grow a bit weary by all the stat guys who merely criticize GM moves without offering any of their own solutions. Dave's plan may be fanciful, but at least its a plan.
Right. This is the No. 1 mistake in these types of trade proposals.
You're going to trade the best hitter in the NL and replace him with a guy who might not pan out?
/facepalm
And to be clear, I'm normally very particular about people spelling out their reasoning quantitatively in an argument, so I can appreciate Dave's position that the people just calling his proposal dumb don't have a valid position. But he seems to be completely unwilling to accept any counterargument even if it does use WAR, salary, historical precedent, etc.
He did, however write this, "if all you’ve come to say is “that’s dumb” (or make factually incorrect statements about league minimum salaries), then you’re not bringing anything to the table." To which I'll concede, I'm not bringing anything to the table.
Why spend 2/$27 if you have someone making minimum who's almost as good.
A few people have hit on some key points, but the biggest deal is that even if Alonso were that good, I'd still never trade Votto. At worst, if I thought I couldn't re-up him, I'd stick him in left and suffer through another two 150 OPS+ seasons. He's an incredible player with a favorable deal. You just don't trade guys like that unless an extraordinary return comes back- and you'd never do it to save money, he's an impossibly good use of funds for the next two years. I like Pineda, but I don't see him as anywhere near what Votto should cost.
John Danks says hello.
Who's talking about trading Kemp? Or are you talking about Pujols?
Votto is outstanding. He wasn't the best hitter in 2011, that was Kemp. He's not the best hitter over a period of a few years - that is Pujols. He IS a player that any team would be happy to get. The Reds are not going to trade him this offseason, unless they get overwhelmed with an offer - which is unlikely.
And even Moyer should get only a minor league deal and a plane ticket. A roster spot and guaranteed money to a 49-yr-old seems kind of nuts, even if it's "only" $500,000.
Dave seems to think he's on unshakable intellectual footing if he hides behind the position of "the burden of proof is on you to show that I'm wrong." But I think it's obvious that he needs to look at the history of vaguely comparable trades and see if teams actually value these types of players in a way that comes close to WAR, $/WAR, and the value of salary relief. Or, at least, he should actually link to research showing as much rather than just saying that it's a known fact. (By the way, I disagree with the commenter in one way - it's not necessary to show how teams think, just as long as their decisions match pretty closely to what this model would tell you.)
Plus we all know that Dusty would just blow out Pineda's arm. :-)
And as somebody noted, if the Reds want salary relief now, they trade Phillips who is an FA after 2012.
Which would just reinforce why the Reds shouldn't trade Votto. Ah well. That's as much time as I'll spend thinking about the Mariners this winter. I'm taxed!
See? Cameron was right!
Also, I for one love these kind of articles with wild trade suggestions, even if they're a tiny bit unrealistic. They usually inspire really good discussions.
Rk Player Rbat
1 Albert Pujols 174
2 Miguel Cabrera 170
3 Prince Fielder 153
4 Adrian Gonzalez 152
5 Joey Votto 150
6 Ryan Braun 126
7 Jose Bautista 121
8 Matt Holliday 115
9 Paul Konerko 94
10 Joe Mauer 90
So Dave thinks he can get #5 there for Pineda and some flotsam, because 25 year old Yonder Alonso has hit .296/.364/.478 in 2.5 years in AAA is cheaper and "almost" as good... (OK Yonder did that in the IL, not the PCL, so those are not bad AAA numbers, but it's not like he can sniff 26 year old Lucas Duda as a hitter, .310/.398/.606 in the IL- 124 OPS+ in the majors ion 400+ PAs)
You do not trade Votto because you have Yonder Alonso - you trade Alonso for what you can get because you have a Votto - and how on earth is Alonso worth more than Grandal, a guy Dave expects the Reds to chip in? 12th overall pick in 2010's draft, a catcher who just hit .305/.401/.500 between 3 levels in 2011? Oooh that's right, Alonso hit .330/.398/.545 in 98 MLB PAs last year- lets' give him the semi-annul Mike Jacobs trophy (Jacobs hit .310/.375/.710 in 112 PAs in his age 24 cup of coffee- and let's not forget that Jacobs was a league average hitter for 3-4 years there- and owns a nice shiny .275/.345/.484 AAA slash line- not far off Alonso's .296/.364/.478 AAA slash line.
I'm sorry to pile on, but it just seems that Cameron has no conception of who/what Joey Votto is relative to other MLB players
The areas where they can improve most are LF and 3B. How do they improve those two positions?
If they're really serious about dumping Figgins's contract, one would hope they'd be willing to eat more than sixteen dollars. Surely at least $18.75, just to show good faith.
Depends on end points. The last 2 years Kemps OPS+ is 138, Fielder 149, Pujols 162, Votto 163
Go back 3 years: Kemp: 134, Fielder 155, Votto 161, Pujols 171
Pujols has declined each of the last 4 years. I understand he's still putting up a 150 OPS+, but he's still declining. I think an argument can be made that right now Votto is the best hitter in the NL. If not he's clearly 2nd to Pujols.
There are a bunch of LF options they could sign. DeJesus, Crisp, Kubel. Matt Murton maybe, but I'd prefer a lefty to spot with Wells. If I were running a team I'd try to get Seth Smith, but the Rockies might be big fans since no one has yet done this.
There are no FA 3Bmen available and I wouldn't be comfortable with Liddi or Seager. I'd try to get Daniel Murphy or Edwin Encarnacion in a trade or maybe wait and see if Martin Prado get NT'd.
Then I'd add a RH bat to spell Carp and Smoak (Jackson? Nady?), go cheap at catcher (let Olivo start?) and hope like hell that Gutierrez isn't done in CF.
I'd keep Pineda and blow my budget on a pitcher (hopefully Darvish). Play to your park's strengths.
This is still at most a 75 win team.
Hell not picking up Fransisco Cordero's & Phillip's option is going to save $24 mil, or nearly 1/3 of the entire payroll.
The Reds have ~$28 mil coming off the books for '12 (realistically it's $16 mil as I expect Phillips' option to be picked up), with no real big time arb cases this year. Plus Rolen's last year might be movable if they REALLY need to clear salary.
Bottom line, salary relief is the last thing this organization needs right now. This is a team that won the NL central in '10 and is expecting to compete again in '12 and '13 with a very manageable payroll because of a young cheap core of players.
The Blue Jays will pick him up in a trade (for cash) at the August deadline when they are busy holding off the Rays for the wild-card spot.
LF: Peguero... minor league numbers do not look terrible, until you realize he played in the PCL and the Calif League (High Desert to boot), put up a 75 in the majors- is likely a little better hitter than that... 90 OPS+... so no he's no kind of solution,
Saunders- he's pretty much the same hitter Peguero is, a few more walks, a few less Ks, but pretty much the same OPS range
Trayvon... see Saunders
Kyle Seager.... how is his Dee? He might be able to OPS+ 95-105, at the high end he'd be an adequate MLB 3B- he looks to be a slightly better hitter than Peguero/Saunders/Trayvon et al and a 3B doesn't have to hit as much as an LF to be useful...
They also need Guitierrez to get back up to near 100 OPS+
and they need Ichiro to not have a fork in his back...
I think the Mariners need to go outside their organization trades/FAs...
This organization is in such bad shape I can't see them competing in 2012 and 2013 looks iffy, unless they start making major moves now:
Mariners' PYTHAG wins 2006-2011
78, 79, 67, 75, 59, 67
basically this team has cratered like the pre-Dombrowski Tigers, the Littlefield Pirates and the Baird Royals- only the Pythag Faeires smiling on them in 2007 and 2009 has allowed the team and it's fanboys to delude themselves- terrible organization when Cameron ranked them 6th they were at the time(with some hindsight benefit I admit) definitely worse than 20th, I think they should regard the team as having to be rebuilt from ground up, jettison everyone over 30 (except Ichiro- he's an icon and you are not getting anything for him at this point, and you can't fill every hole in 2012 anyway) and think about trading King Felix - at least see what's out there.
I kinda like Ian Stewart as a reclamation project. As for LF I dunno, maybe see if Logan Morrison has worn out his welcome in Florida? Is there anything left to salvage of Felix Pie's career? Maybe see if the Jays are done with Travis Snider.
But I don't really see a lot of moves that can make this a good team. They should probably work towards making this a good team for the last year or two of Felix's contract, and that may mean trading assets like Brandon League and Jason Vargas for prospects.
Casey may rebound, but I am adamant that he is not a long-term option at third. Better to give the job to Green and move along.
Carp could hit 25 homers in Miller Park and has to be a defensive improvement.
Estrada? He has his uses but if Doug Melvin cannot replace that type of talent he needs to go paint barns or something.
I have Morrison as a cheap keeper on my NL only Roto team, so it pains me to say, but yes, that is something the Mariners *should* look into- but I'd have to warn you, he's a similar type player/hitter (but better) to Smoak whose game doesn't seem to translate real well in the Northwest...
With regard to Ian Stewart, aside from struggling at altitude and then trying to see how he'll play in Seattle, if given the dubious choice of starting him or Seager at 3B, I'd try Seager first at this point...
What's the exchange rate with dollar bucks?
It seems to me that the Padres did a much better job at evaluating where they were than you did Walt. Yeah, they won 90 games, but a lot of people (myself included) said at the time that they massively overachieved and projected much worse than that going forward. You can argue that they were dumb to trade Adrian for the package they got, but this season validates their decision to trade him. And it's not clear that they had a better deal on the table. They weren't one Gonzalez away from contending, and holding on to him for a non-contending year, and then watching him leave for two picks would have been the dumb thing to do.
I mean - lets say Dave's valuation is correct on the Votto proposal, and it is equal value. That doesn't mean the Reds will do it! And what's the point of making equal value trades anyway? The only reasons are:
1) trade future value for present (i.e, prospects for vets)
2) change of scenery
3) redistribute talent (you have 2 starting ML quality 3Bs)
I guess DC is trying to make point (3) about the Reds... but still, GM motivations and "the other" teams plans make this totally opaque.
So just, stop, everyone.
Still doesn't validate the trade. There's no way they don't an equivalent package this off-season, or even at next year's trade deadline. Half a season of Carlos Beltran got 70% of the package Gonzalez did.
If there's no good offer out there, you have to hold him. They still had 2 years of control.
Why?
So just, stop, everyone.
It's a long way til baseball. Better BS trade discussions than more politics.
Uhm. No.
It's pretty hard to get any value in trade for a guy who's eligible for free agency.
It's pretty hard to get any value in trade for a guy who's eligible for free agency.
Ooops, got Gonzalez and Votto's deals cross-wired in my head.
You can always try calling Ned.
They estimated $31M for arbitration eligible players, which is way off. Vargas $4M, League $5M and that's about it. (I think it is computer generated and including players it shouldn't like Aardsma, Cust, Rodriguez, Laffey, all of whom are no longer in the organization)
So it's closer to a $75M payroll.
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main