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Thursday, January 30, 2014

Davidi: Kinsler To Jays Scuttled By No-Trade Clause

Shi Davidi dropped something of a bombshell on us, and it’s one requires some more (relatively) immediate examination. According to his latest for Sportsnet, he reported that, in addition to the one for Brett Anderson we’d already heard about, the Jays had a deal fall apart that would have landed them Ian Kinsler, who was then with the Texas Rangers, but has since been moved to Detroit.

Or… “fall apart” isn’t quite the right terminology. He writes:

  “A potential deal was scuttled by the three-time all-star’s no-trade clause, leaving the Rangers to look elsewhere, and the Blue Jays to anoint rookie Ryan Goins as the front-runner at second base.”

Paul D(uda) Posted: January 30, 2014 at 07:14 AM | 57 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: blue jays, rangers

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   1. Greg K Posted: January 30, 2014 at 09:25 AM (#4648512)
I do wonder what the Jays were sending to Texas. The Jays prospects all seem pretty far from the majors, and I assume the Rangers weren't going to trade Kinsler without getting anything back that would help them in 2014. The article mentions Bautista as a possibility. Not sure how I would have felt about that if true. I dearly love Bautista, but I do always feel like the magic is going to run out around the next corner.

On this plus side this at least suggests that AA is aware that the current 2B situation is a bit of a disaster.
   2. BDC Posted: January 30, 2014 at 09:27 AM (#4648516)
Intriguing speculations here. I wonder who will have more left in the rest of his career, Prince Fielder or Jose Bautista. Bautista is 3½ years older, but still a good athlete when/if healthy. Fielder, who knows how long before he's a dead weight: we're just hoping he smacks 50 HR this year and the flag flies forever :)
   3. Rants Mulliniks Posted: January 30, 2014 at 09:31 AM (#4648518)
AA must be getting a bit antsy I would think. He blew his wad last year and got 1 win out of a much older team. The team is now even older, and he hasn't been able to do anything other than punt Arencibia.
   4. Spivey Posted: January 30, 2014 at 09:39 AM (#4648522)
I'd much rather have Bautista than Fielder. That's not even up for debate in my mind.
   5. Hippo Vaughn is my hero Posted: January 30, 2014 at 10:09 AM (#4648548)
Spivey, couldn't agree more. I wonder how much time Fielder has left before he can't get out of his own way. Perhaps as BDC says, he is good for one more good season.
   6. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 30, 2014 at 10:12 AM (#4648550)
I assume the Rangers weren't going to trade Kinsler without getting anything back that would help them in 2014.


Getting rid of Kinsler helps free up money the Rangers can use to pursue free agents. If I ran the Rangers, I would have been happy getting Sergio Santos. Kinsler's contract is an albatross, he's 31, and his hitting has been average the last two years.
   7. Nasty Nate Posted: January 30, 2014 at 10:21 AM (#4648560)
His contract is not an albatross. I think it probably even has positive trade value.
   8. What's the realistic upside, RMc? Posted: January 30, 2014 at 10:31 AM (#4648570)
I'd much rather have Bautista than Fielder. That's not even up for debate in my mind.


Really? Prince's comps thru age 29 include Eddie Murray, Mark Teixeira, Boog Powell and Barry Bonds; Bautista's age-32 comps feature people like Jeremy Burnitz, Eric Davis and Pete Incaviglia.

Fielder's (retired) comps averages from age 30 onwards: 18.4 WAR, 815 G, 784 H, 152 Hr, .278 AVG.
Bautista's comps from age 33 on: 3.1 WAR, 370 G, 304 H, 59 HR, .255 AVG.

Yes, I know, Prince is fat and divorced and yadda yadda yadda. But it would seem if one of these guys suddenly becomes useless in a year or two, it's probably gonna be Bautista, not Fielder.
   9. PreservedFish Posted: January 30, 2014 at 10:49 AM (#4648581)
Bautista's age-32 comps feature people like Jeremy Burnitz, Eric Davis and Pete Incaviglia.


Come on. The BR comps are a joke, and they are a double-joke for someone with a weird career pattern like Bautista. Do you really think that these guys have anything in common?

Bautista's top ZIPS comp is Dwight Evans!
   10. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 30, 2014 at 10:53 AM (#4648583)

Really? Prince's comps thru age 29 include Eddie Murray, Mark Teixeira, Boog Powell and Barry Bonds


I don't recall any of them being 350 lbs and woefully out of shape. Prince makes David Wells look svelte.
   11. dlf Posted: January 30, 2014 at 11:11 AM (#4648592)
I don't recall any of them being 350 lbs and woefully out of shape.


Then you don't recall Boog Powell.
   12. SG Posted: January 30, 2014 at 11:14 AM (#4648594)
Rumor has it Prince is in the best shape of his life.
   13. Rants Mulliniks Posted: January 30, 2014 at 11:19 AM (#4648602)
#9 and 10 - I was going to say the same thing basically. Comps are neat, but I don't see how they have any predictive value, certainly not when comparing players of different body type.
   14. tfbg9 Posted: January 30, 2014 at 11:21 AM (#4648605)
Then you don't recall Boog Powell


Prince is way rounder than Boog ever was.
   15. AROM Posted: January 30, 2014 at 11:22 AM (#4648606)
Then you don't recall Boog Powell.


I could definitely see Prince Fielder, once he retires, having a grill with his name on it in a ballpark. Where he can just sit outside before games signing autographs, and fans can see how big he gets when he really lets himself go. Won't be in Detroit though, just 2 seasons. Either he'll go back to Milwaukee, or set up shop in Texas.
   16. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 30, 2014 at 11:23 AM (#4648608)
Then you don't recall Boog Powell.

Boog was a big boy, but take a look at the old baseball card pictures. He wasn't close to Prince's size.

Powell was thick in the mid-section, but Prince plays with a gut hanging over his belt.
   17. Rants Mulliniks Posted: January 30, 2014 at 11:34 AM (#4648618)
I could definitely see Prince Fielder, once he retires, having a grill


I don't know about you, but a vegetarian doesn't lend much credibility to that sort of thing.
   18. The Good Face Posted: January 30, 2014 at 11:44 AM (#4648629)
I could definitely see Prince Fielder, once he retires, having a grill


I don't know about you, but a vegetarian doesn't lend much credibility to that sort of thing.


I'd thought that was just a relatively brief experiment (a year or so) that he'd long since given up on? Can somebody give us the straight dope on Prince's diet, because this story seems to change every time I see it.
   19. Spivey Posted: January 30, 2014 at 11:53 AM (#4648636)
Prince Fielder is not a vegetarian.
   20. Pat Rapper's Delight Posted: January 30, 2014 at 12:21 PM (#4648671)
I could definitely see Prince Fielder, once he retires, having a grill

Gary Sheffield didn't even wait until he retired. His grill was pictured on his rookie card.
   21. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: January 30, 2014 at 12:34 PM (#4648682)
Rumor has it Prince is in the best shape of his life.

Perfectly spherical?
   22. eddieot Posted: January 30, 2014 at 12:43 PM (#4648693)
According to this mom's basement dweller, Prince has lost 40 pounds.
   23. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 30, 2014 at 12:45 PM (#4648696)
According to this mom's basement dweller, Prince has lost 40 pounds.

About damn time. Especially when he's going to be playing in a lot of 95 degree Texas heat.
   24. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: January 30, 2014 at 01:11 PM (#4648725)
I don't know how much stock you can put in off-the-field happenings affecting on-field performance, but Prince's personal life was pretty messy during the 2013 season. The divorce stuff is pretty well known by now, but there have been a lot of rumblings here in Michigan the last few weeks that Prince's wife was sleeping around, and one of those hook-ups was Mini Miggy himself, Avisail Garcia. Supposedly when the Tigers' clubhouse caught wind of it, there was something of an altercation between Cabrera and Garcia, during which, Cabrera re-injured himself. Garcia was shipped to Chicago not long after. Some think part of why Detroit wanted out of the Prince contract was to cut ties with any of this drama.

Again, you can only put so much stock into this stuff and any ripple effect it may have, but it'll be interesting to see if there's a bounceback from Prince in his new environment.
   25. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: January 30, 2014 at 01:23 PM (#4648741)
Fielder has been one of the most consistent and durable players in baseball throughout his career. He had a down year in 2013, but it was hardly a disaster. I don't see any reason to assume he'll collapse in the next couple years.
   26. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 30, 2014 at 01:30 PM (#4648750)
Fielder has been one of the most consistent and durable players in baseball throughout his career. He had a down year in 2013, but it was hardly a disaster. I don't see any reason to assume he'll collapse in the next couple years.

He hasn't been consistent at all.

OPS+ since 2006 110, 157, 130, 166, 135, 164, 151, 120
WAR since 2006 -0.7, 3.6, 1.6, 6.3, 1.7, 4.6, 4.9, 4.9, 1.7

He's yo-yo'ed from star to below average multiple times.
   27. Brian Posted: January 30, 2014 at 01:30 PM (#4648752)
It's not like Fielder is in the prime athletic condition that someone like, oh I don't know, David Ortiz is. Huge guys fall apart quickly when they go but Fielder is a good athlete and I think he'll buck the trend of his dad, Kevin Mitchell, Mo Vaughn, to name a few.
   28. AROM Posted: January 30, 2014 at 01:34 PM (#4648754)
Supposedly when the Tigers' clubhouse caught wind of it, there was something of an altercation between Cabrera and Garcia, during which, Cabrera re-injured himself.


That must have been quite a site. Regardless of who is right or wrong, Tigers can't afford for Cabrera to get hurt, so you intervene on his behalf. But which one is the real Miggy?
   29. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 30, 2014 at 01:36 PM (#4648760)
That must have been quite a site. Regardless of who is right or wrong, Tigers can't afford for Cabrera to get hurt, so you intervene on his behalf. But which one is the real Miggy?

My question is why was Cabrera going after Garcia instead of Prince? Or were both of them banging Prince's wife?
   30. The Good Face Posted: January 30, 2014 at 01:48 PM (#4648778)
OPS+ since 2006 110, 157, 130, 166, 135, 164, 151, 120


Those six years in the middle are actually pretty consistent, and represent reasonable fluctuation for a guy who's a "true talent" 145 OPS+ hitter. The real question is whether 2013 was an aberration due to personal problems or a sign of declining skills due to age/fatness.
   31. Graham & the 15-win "ARod Vortex of suck" Posted: January 30, 2014 at 01:48 PM (#4648779)
Snapper -- I read it as Cabrera defending Fielder. I imagine Cabrera learning about the incident in the clubhouse and going off on Garcia for Fielder. Heck, maybe Cabrera heard about it before Fielder knew. It sounds like an "I got your back" situation to me, but this is the first time I've heard this rumor.
   32. Pat Rapper's Delight Posted: January 30, 2014 at 01:49 PM (#4648781)
Prince's wife was sleeping around, and one of those hook-ups was Mini Miggy himself, Avisail Garcia. ... it'll be interesting to see if there's a bounceback from Prince in his new environment.

He should be fine as long as Rafael Palmeiro steers clear of the Rangers clubhouse.
   33. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: January 30, 2014 at 01:52 PM (#4648788)
the OPS+ is fairly consistent from year to year -- most players aren't Eddie Murray. And he never misses a game.
   34. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 30, 2014 at 01:54 PM (#4648792)
the OPS+ is fairly consistent from year to year -- most players aren't Eddie Murray. And he never misses a game.

But with his horrid defense and baserunning, he needs to have a 150 OPS+ to be valuable.
   35. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: January 30, 2014 at 01:58 PM (#4648796)
That's true, but my point is just that I don't see any reason to think he'll suddenly collapse in the next couple years. My guess is that he'll continue putting up the same numbers with the same variance for 4-5 more years.
   36. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 30, 2014 at 02:01 PM (#4648804)
That's true, but my point is just that I don't see any reason to think he'll suddenly collapse in the next couple years. My guess is that he'll continue putting up the same numbers with the same variance for 4-5 more years.

I doubt it. Guys with his body type don't tend to last much past 30. He may have 1 or 2 more decent years, but I'd peg the O/U on his 5-year OPS+ at about 125.

I wouldn't value him as any more than a 2 WAR player.
   37. The Good Face Posted: January 30, 2014 at 02:03 PM (#4648807)
the OPS+ is fairly consistent from year to year -- most players aren't Eddie Murray. And he never misses a game.

But with his horrid defense and baserunning, he needs to have a 150 OPS+ to be valuable.


Keep in mind that Texas has been starting a replacement player at 1B for the past 3 years. It'd be a big overpay, but if Fielder can be a 2-3 WAR player, he'd represent a significant improvement for a team that's fallen short by ONE game two years in a row.
   38. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: January 30, 2014 at 02:34 PM (#4648833)
BBREF sponsorship?
   39. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: January 30, 2014 at 02:48 PM (#4648851)
He should be fine as long as Rafael Palmeiro steers clear of the Rangers clubhouse.

He should be banned from sleeping with other people wives due to his admitted PED use. Now Dave Martinez and Rick Manning.....
   40. Non-Youkilidian Geometry Posted: January 30, 2014 at 03:31 PM (#4648894)
He should be banned from sleeping with other people wives due to his admitted PED use.

You mean his old Viagra ads?
   41. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 30, 2014 at 03:38 PM (#4648898)
BBREF sponsorship?

That aimed at me?

What's the bet?
   42. AROM Posted: January 30, 2014 at 04:29 PM (#4648938)
Keep in mind that Texas has been starting a replacement player at 1B for the past 3 years. It'd be a big overpay, but if Fielder can be a 2-3 WAR player, he'd represent a significant improvement for a team that's fallen short by ONE game two years in a row.


True, but that assumes Profar is able to replace the 4-5 WAR average that Kinsler has given them over the last 8 years.
   43. The Good Face Posted: January 30, 2014 at 04:42 PM (#4648945)
True, but that assumes Profar is able to replace the 4-5 WAR average that Kinsler has given them over the last 8 years.


There are some signs that Kinsler may be headed for a crash himself. His speed has disappeared, his power is declining, he's going to be 32, and he's always been a guy who suffered from lots of nagging injuries. I'm optimistic the Fielder/Profar combo puts up more WAR than the Kinsler/Moreland duo.
   44. PreservedFish Posted: January 30, 2014 at 05:23 PM (#4648971)
Keep in mind that Texas has been starting a replacement player at 1B for the past 3 years. It'd be a big overpay, but if Fielder can be a 2-3 WAR player, he'd represent a significant improvement for a team that's fallen short by ONE game two years in a row.


Also, Mitch Moreland is still on the Rangers, and it looks like he's going to be their primary DH. So Fielder isn't exactly replacing him as much as he is Lance Berkman.

Also also, the numbers would also suggest that they're giving back ONE game per year by having the worse defender play in the field.
   45. Walt Davis Posted: January 30, 2014 at 11:55 PM (#4649129)
I put together some Kinsler comps back at the time of the trade. He looks just fine. There aren't a ton of comps obviously but basically half of them produced something like 8-12 WAR over the next three years (age), 25% craters and 25% did really good (Whitaker and Kent and maybe another).

I've just done a similar list for Bautista -- slugging corner OF of the expansion era with between 20 and 25 WAR from ages 29-32. Bautista is actually top of the list with 23 WAR but the next closest guy is McCovey with 4 more WAR which is too big of a gap. So it turns up 10 guys between 20-23 WAR from ages 29-32. Bautista is only signed for 2 more years so those 10 guys at ages 33-34:

FRob 12 WAR
Walker 9
Manny 9
Giles 9
Reggie 8
Kaline 7
Helton 5
Thome 3 (hurt at 34)
Youk 1
Allen 0

So a mix. Helton at 32-34 is definitely out of his prime; Thome's dropped at 33 -- he remained good and one more 5 WAR year but not the Thome. Kaline went from a 5 WAR player to a 3 WAR player at 33. Still, Bautista as a 3-4 WAR player plus injury risk looks reasonable for 2014-15. That's all Prince is right now (at best) and Bautista is owed only 2/$28 with a $14 M team option. Everybody would take Bautista over Prince. That's also probably all Kinsler is right now and he's still got 4/$57 left so, barring desperate need for a 2B, I'm pretty sure everybody would take Bautista over him too.

A somewhat similar search for Prince, 10-13 WAR from 27-29, slugging 1B/DH, expansion era turns up a pretty good set of comps I'd say. 13 guys, generally fairly big guys, maybe Tino Martinez doesn't belong by body type. I expect this to look ugly ... from ages 30-36, $168 M (minus $30 M right?)

Thome 30
Cash 25
Ortiz 24 (so far so good)

Allen 16
McGriff 15
Tino 13 (around $9-10 M per WAR, not good but not disaster)

May 9
Hrbek 9
Thornton 8 (roh-roh!)

Sweeney 5
Gentile 3
Morneau 2 (and counting?)
G Davis 1

So about a 25% chance it turns out great (although that's still about $5 M per WAR), 25% chance it's not a disaster, 25% it's pretty much a disaster and 25% it's Howard-esque. (I'm surprised they shake out so neatly into 4 groups.)

It's possible that WAR range undersells Fielder. He was 4-5 WAR in 2011-12 and, if we believe dWAR, simply moving him to DH would pick up at least .5 wins per year. However pushing up to 15 WAR doesn't add many exciting names to the comp list -- Palmeiro (32 WAR), Tenace (about 16 as an average 1B), Boog (10), Mo (8), D Lee (14). So the Howard-esque odds might be lower than suggested above but we still seem to be looking at a likely outcome around maybe 12-14 WAR.

I think the Tigers took the Rangers to the cleaners.
   46. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: January 31, 2014 at 09:38 AM (#4649188)
That aimed at me?

What's the bet?


How about...if Fielder has a combined OPS+ of 130 or greater over the next four seasons, you sponsor a Oriole's page on BBREF for a year. If it's below 130, I sponsor a Yankee.
   47. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 31, 2014 at 09:45 AM (#4649193)
How about...if Fielder has a combined OPS+ of 130 or greater over the next four seasons, you sponsor a Oriole's page on BBREF for a year. If it's below 130, I sponsor a Yankee.

Sure. That's a pretty long term bet for the inter-webs, but why not. What value page? $10? $15? $20?

Should we have a playing time codicil? Min # of PAs?
   48. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: January 31, 2014 at 09:57 AM (#4649201)
Let's say a $20 page, and 2000 PAs. IOW, I need him to have a 130 OPS+ over at least 2000 PAs to win.
   49. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 31, 2014 at 09:59 AM (#4649202)
Let's say a $20 page, and 2000 PAs. IOW, I need him to have a 130 OPS+ over at least 2000 PAs to win.

OK. Below 2000 PAs is a push, or a win for me?
   50. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: January 31, 2014 at 10:08 AM (#4649205)
Win for you.
   51. BDC Posted: January 31, 2014 at 10:58 AM (#4649231)
I think the Tigers took the Rangers to the cleaners

In terms of money, undoubtedly. I'm not convinced that Kinsler has a huge amount left as a player, compared to Fielder; and again, if Fielder expends what he has left in a big year or two, I won't care a hoot if Kinsler has four or five decent seasons in Detroit.

But Fielder's contract expires right about the time that President Clinton will be debating some third- or fourth- generation Bush nominee. Given that Kinsler's contract (though substantial) is looking more and more affordable as salaries inflate each year, I can't imagine they couldn't have gotten a pack of prospects for him from somebody. It can't have been imperative that they relieve the Tigers of the Fielder contract.
   52. What's the realistic upside, RMc? Posted: January 31, 2014 at 05:52 PM (#4649600)
But Fielder's contract expires right about the time that President Clinton will be debating some third- or fourth- generation Bush nominee.


Well, Chelsea does turn 35 next year, and I guess it's conceivable that the 22nd Amendment could be repealed. So, it is possible...
   53. Walt Davis Posted: January 31, 2014 at 11:23 PM (#4649700)
I'm not convinced that Kinsler has a huge amount left as a player, compared to Fielder

Man, everybody's so down on Kinsler. He did have a 5 WAR (3.6 oWAR) season last year, it hardly seems he's knocking on death's door.

In fact, Kinsler had more WAR than Fielder last year. He had more WAR than Fielder over the last two years. And over the last three years, four years, five years, six years, seven years, eight years. Over those years, 2012 was the only single year in which Fielder had a demonstrably better season.

I know there's a two-year age difference but, hey, it's only a two-year age difference. Other than the fact that the baseball gods have it in for me, I don't see any reason to expect Fielder to out-produce Kinsler over the next 4 years. From a money angle and from a baseball angle, I'll take the Tigers side of this one every time. I'm not entirely convinced the Rangers wouldn't have been better off (in a baseball sense) just shifting Kinsler to first.
   54. BDC Posted: February 01, 2014 at 09:31 AM (#4649754)
better off (in a baseball sense) just shifting Kinsler to first

That move was bruited about in the DFW media, but reports were that Kinsler's agent vetoed it. If true, things like that make me nostalgic for the days of Billy Martin or somebody who would have just punched the agent. I mean, you're getting paid ~$15M to play baseball, and the thought of picking up a first baseman's glove is beneath your dignity? But I suppose all workplaces have their little episodes of pique and umbrage.
   55. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 01, 2014 at 12:46 PM (#4649818)
Let's say a $20 page, and 2000 PAs. IOW, I need him to have a 130 OPS+ over at least 2000 PAs to win.

OK. Below 2000 PAs is a push, or a win for me?


Win for you.

OK, done.
   56. Walt Davis Posted: February 01, 2014 at 11:43 PM (#4650005)
That move was bruited about in the DFW media, but reports were that Kinsler's agent vetoed it.

Yeah, I know, but everybody but ARod whines about shifting positions but they all end up doing it and usually happily in the end. You guys were used to Young whining every time, you should know how to handle this by now.

It is an odd thing for Kinsler to be concerned about given his age and contract status.
   57. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 10, 2014 at 12:22 PM (#4654273)
I know this is late, but it just occurred to me the third player that failed his physical was Matt Kemp. The Rangers expressed interest earlier this winter in Kemp, according to reports. Kemp is injured and would possibly fail a physical. The Dodgers are probably just looking to move his salary. The Rangers pick up Kemp (cheaper than Fielder) and instead of signing Choo, pick up a 1B instead. Blue Jays get Kinsler. Dodgers get Sergio Santos and perhaps a prospect or two, but mostly salary relief.

That's the only three-team trade I could think of that made sense.

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