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Thursday, April 18, 2013

Davidi on Jays: The trade that almost was

In some ways the remade Toronto Blue Jays owe the visiting Chicago White Sox a debt of gratitude, since it was their exploration of trade possibilities for Jake Peavy back in October that helped set the stage for Alex Anthopoulos to pull off November’s blockbuster with the Miami Marlins.

A few weeks before that franchise-altering deal went down, the general manager was close to acquiring the 2007 NL Cy Young Award winner from the South Siders, whose $22-million club option for 2013 was due to be declined in favour of a $4-million buyout.

But things fell apart Oct. 30 when the right-hander agreed to a $29-million, two-year extension with an option for 2015, according to multiple sources…..

Had the Blue Jays obtained Peavy, they would have only taken on $18 million of his $22-million option for this season, with the White Sox contributing the $4 million they would have paid for Peavy’s buyout. It’s unclear who would have gone back the other way, but the player or players would have been more enticing than a compensatory draft pick.

The Blue Jays were unlikely to have stopped at Peavy, and some altered form of the Marlins deal — in which they obtained Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Emilio Bonifacio and John Buck, who was later flipped to the New York Mets as part of the R.A. Dickey deal — may have been possible.

 

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: April 18, 2013 at 11:31 AM | 5 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: alex anthopoulos, blue jays, jake peavy, rick hahn, trade rumors, white sox

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   1. Nasty Nate Posted: April 18, 2013 at 01:48 PM (#4418085)
Does this mean Peavy and his agents underestimated his market value? If the Jays were willing to pay 1/18 plus give up a player that was more enticing than a draft pick, they were probably willing to beat 2/29.
   2. Jose is El Absurd Bronson Y Pollo Posted: April 18, 2013 at 02:20 PM (#4418138)
I'm confused. If the Marlin deal would have happened anyway, at least in some form, why would not getting Peavy be a good thing? He's a pretty good pitcher and it basically comes down to Peavy vs. Dickey and I think you can make a pretty defensible case for either one. Given that they gave up a couple of top 50 prospects for Dickey it's hard to believe the price for Peavy would have been appreciably greater.
   3. Nasty Nate Posted: April 18, 2013 at 02:29 PM (#4418149)
I was thinking the same thing, Jose. I would expect an article like this if Dickey was outpitching Peavy and Reyes and Johnson were healthy and productive - but for the moment the Jays don't really owe gratitude to the Sox for pulling back on the Peavy deal.
   4. Walt Davis Posted: April 18, 2013 at 05:31 PM (#4418403)
Yep, does sound like one where almost everybody messed up a bit. Peavy's agents (even if it's not more than 2/29 out of the Jays, he'd have had $22 for 2013 and an FA in 2014 needing only a 1/$7 deal to break even. The Jays aren't necessarily better off without this deal. The Sox I suppose it depends on what they would have gotten back from the Jays -- Peavy for 2/$29 certainly looks fine and I should never under-rate the Sox (or the 2nd wildcard spot) but I don't see Peavy being enough to push them to a playoff spot.
   5. CWS Keith plans to [omitted] at [omitted] Posted: April 18, 2013 at 05:49 PM (#4418429)
Peavy for 2/$29 certainly looks fine and I should never under-rate the Sox (or the 2nd wildcard spot) but I don't see Peavy being enough to push them to a playoff spot.

Not sure the relevance of that second part, unless you're viewing the deal through a strange success-cycle lens. On the theoretical 2013 White Sox team that wins 88-92 games -- unlikely but not implausible -- Peavy will almost certainly be a a pretty big reason for that success, and well worth the $14.5mm outlay. Even in a more likely scenario where they float around .500, I'm not sure why having Peavy at 2/$29 is bad for the Sox (to be fair, you didn't say as much).

As to what the Sox would've received in return, obviously we can only speculate, but I can't think it would have been much. One year, $18mm is more or less paying market value for Peavy (give or take), right? Sox would have thrown in $4mm so the expectation would have been at most two B prospects. That's a probably fair but still less-than-thrilling return.

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