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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Thursday, December 08, 2011Deducing Albert Pujols’ mystery team | HardballTalkI don’t buy the Red Sox as the mystery team. Two teams that make sense to me are the Orioles and the Mariners. I can see Dan Duquette working to get a huge Hall-of-Fame bat for his team (see Manny Ramirez). The Mariners are reportedly in on Fielder. If they are willing to put the money up for Fielder, I can’t see why they wouldn’t be negotiating with Pujols.
Jim Furtado
Posted: December 08, 2011 at 11:55 AM | 50 comment(s)
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1. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 08, 2011 at 12:30 PM (#4009968)+47 Bat -1 Run +20 Rep -10 Pos +3 Def = +59 RAR (Pujols)
+41 Bat -4 Run +22 Rep -11 Pos +7 Def = +55 RAR (Gonzalez)
If you project both of them to decline at the same rate going forward, that would make a fair deal for Gonzalez 7/156 and for Pujols 7/170. Adding the 3/50 to that number that would be needed to land Pujols doesn't seem worth it unless someone is will to give you a lot of added value for Gonzalez. And Gonzalez should to decline less than Pujols over the next decade, due to the two year age difference.
Plus, I really like Adrian Gonzalez. He's the smartest, most creative ballplayer the Red Sox have had since Schilling and Pedro, and I can't remember a position player on the team who's had his kind of baseball intelligence. (I guess Pujols is similar, by many accounts, but Gonzalez is the guy I've cathected to, dammit.)
As long as we're guessing, I'll go with the Tigers as the mystery team. I can imagine the relationship between the front office and Miguel Cabrera is complicated.
My second guess is the Mets because BTF would shut down for a day if he signed with them.
What if TPTB in Boston have spoken to Gonzalez about a move to right field?
Also, let's say the Sox want to move AGon. Dealing a guy who's owed $150+ million over the next seven years is easier said than done. There's only a handful of teams who'd be willing to make that kind of commitment, and then there's the issue of what Boston would get in return. All of which is a long way to say I agree with Jim's comment above - Boston trading Gonzalez to sign Pujols seems like an awful lot of moving parts that would need to come together for relatively little potential gain.
Wait, when did the Tigers get Bautista?
Gonzalez has also made a number of clever plays in the field - one example is that he throws to third on ground balls with a runner on second more than any 1B I've ever watched. My reading of the numbers at B-Ref (which don't list assists to 3B, but do list total assists and all other possible assists) is that he had 16 assists to 3B last year. By comparison Youkilis averaged 5-6 assists to third in a season, and Millar 3-4.
Yes indeedy. It's a shame the Sox blew it, otherwise that might have been remembered as an iconic moment in a fine season.
All that said, this just isn't going to happen; I know Boston gets out from under a few contracts next year (Dice-K, Scutaro, and I guess Ortiz possibly), but they're not going to go over the cap *and* push Gonzalez to RF to sign Pujols.
I think we'd find out. Frankly if the Sox move Gonzalez to the outfield I would say move Crawford to right and Gonzalez to left. I don't think either guy has the arm for right but at least Crawford can cut off balls in the gap to avoid triples.
But yeah, this ain't happening.
I agree. I can easily imagine the Tigers deciding that Pujols >>> Cabrera, especially when you include the off-the-field stuff (including conditioning). So they're looking for a taker on Cabrera, while trying to sign Pujols. I mean, this fits in perfectly with Puiliot's opening hypothesis, then he just makes a one line assumption that the Tigers aren't the team?
Miggy back to the Marlins in this scenario?
Yikes.
I have a sneaking suspicion this is going to look a lot like the current ARod deal in 4-5 years.
I can buy that argument.
It's the Detroit homer in me, though. Bottom of the ninth, two outs, down by one, runner on... I would take Cabrera over Bautista.
Wow, that's big.
I'm guessing Arte's going to have to raise the price of beer to cover this one ...
Having 4-5 great years followed by the current A-Rod deal doesn't sound all that terrible.
Yowza. Weaver/Wilson/Haren/Santana is pretty stout.
Yowza. That's a lot of loot.
Yowza.
Arod only had one "great" year on the new contract.
If I had to guess, I think Pujols has one more ~7 WAR season in him, and 3 or so 5 WAR seasons (so the first 4 years will be good) but will be in the 3 WAR range by year 5-6. The culprit will likely be 70% injury and 30% skill erosion.
MLBTR is saying they offered CJ 5/70+. Don't think that's close to getting it done. The Yankees should top that in a heart beat.
Where is LAA getting all this money, BTW?
Unless you're an Astros fan.
DALLAS -- Albert Pujols, who won three MVP awards and two World Series championships while crafting a St. Louis Cardinals legacy to rival Stan Musial, left the reigning champions of baseball on Thursday morning and signed a 10-year, $250 million contract with the upstart Miami Marlins, according to a person involved in the negotiations.
The person requested anonymity because Pujols must pass a physical for the deal to be final.
Wait, what?
Yowza. That's some typo.
the 'great' years I was referring to are the ones he had before the current contract, so if Pujols' deal with look like A-Rod's in 4-5 years, he will likely be a great player before that.
What's so confusing? He went to the Angels for 10/250 to sign with the Miami Marlins.
ARod signed his new deal after his age 31 season, just like Pujols. He had an MVP (10 WAR) year at 31, in his walk year. Since then he's only had one "great" year the 5.5 WAR first year.
I'm saying, Pujols contract will look more like his new deal, though I think Pujols will be a little better. I'd be shocked if Pujols has a 8-9 WAR season left in him.
I'm sorry for the obnoxious nit-pick, but it seems like when you wrote "this is going to look a lot like the current ARod deal in 4-5 years" you meant "this is going to look a lot like the current ARod deal right away."
Sorry for any confusion. I meant, in 4-5 years, people will look back on the Pujols deal and feel the same way we feel about the ARod deal.
Oh damn
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