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Thursday, December 08, 2011

Deducing Albert Pujols’ mystery team | HardballTalk

I don’t buy the Red Sox as the mystery team. Two teams that make sense to me are the Orioles and the Mariners. I can see Dan Duquette working to get a huge Hall-of-Fame bat for his team (see Manny Ramirez). The Mariners are reportedly in on Fielder. If they are willing to put the money up for Fielder, I can’t see why they wouldn’t be negotiating with Pujols.

If Stark’s hunch is right — that this mystery team can only sign Pujols with a deal in place to move its first baseman — then Boston seems like the obvious choice. What if Gonzalez has decided Boston isn’t all it’s cracked up to be? There was some issue in the newspapers about his lack of leadership during the team’s September collapse, and perhaps he’s not enamored with the choice of Bobby Valentine to manage. Also, he probably wasn’t pleased that the Red Sox came up short on Heath Bell after he apparently interceded on his former teammate’s behalf. Maybe?

I’m not really buying it. I think the Red Sox would rather have Gonzalez at $154 million for the next seven years — his age 30-36 seasons — than Pujols at $220 million for 10 years — his age 32-41 seasons. But the idea of trading Gonzalez, who has only partial no-trade protection, and signing Pujols isn’t all that far-fetched. The salaries would be essentially the same, and if the Red Sox could get legitimate talent back (how crazy would a Gonzalez-for-Hanley Ramirez deal be?) then maybe it’d be worth it.

Jim Furtado Posted: December 08, 2011 at 11:55 AM | 50 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: angels, cardinals, mariners, miami, red sox

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1. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 08, 2011 at 12:30 PM (#4009968)

I (well, my zero-valued-added-beyond-data-entry "dumber-than-Marcel" projections) have Pujols and Gonzalez projected almost equally for 2012.

+47 Bat -1 Run +20 Rep -10 Pos +3 Def = +59 RAR (Pujols)
+41 Bat -4 Run +22 Rep -11 Pos +7 Def = +55 RAR (Gonzalez)

If you project both of them to decline at the same rate going forward, that would make a fair deal for Gonzalez 7/156 and for Pujols 7/170. Adding the 3/50 to that number that would be needed to land Pujols doesn't seem worth it unless someone is will to give you a lot of added value for Gonzalez. And Gonzalez should to decline less than Pujols over the next decade, due to the two year age difference.

Plus, I really like Adrian Gonzalez. He's the smartest, most creative ballplayer the Red Sox have had since Schilling and Pedro, and I can't remember a position player on the team who's had his kind of baseball intelligence. (I guess Pujols is similar, by many accounts, but Gonzalez is the guy I've cathected to, dammit.)

2. Russ Posted: December 08, 2011 at 01:12 PM (#4009982)

Given the Pirates' aggressiveness this off-season (McLouth and Bedard, made a play for Betemit) and their complete lack of hope at first base, maybe the mystery team is Pittsburgh. Too awesome to even hope for.

3. depletion Posted: December 08, 2011 at 01:30 PM (#4009987)

Nationals.

4. Avoid Running At All Times- S. Paige Posted: December 08, 2011 at 01:30 PM (#4009988)

No snark here, but a sincere question: how has Gonzalez shown himself to be the most creative Sock since Pedro and Schilling?

As long as we're guessing, I'll go with the Tigers as the mystery team. I can imagine the relationship between the front office and Miguel Cabrera is complicated.

My second guess is the Mets because BTF would shut down for a day if he signed with them.

5. Derb Posted: December 08, 2011 at 01:41 PM (#4009994)

Shoot, move Miggy back to third. I know his defense is atrocious there, but could you imagine a lineup featuring the two best hitters in baseball back-to-back? Pipe-dream, of course.

6. Jefferson Manship (Dan Lee) Posted: December 08, 2011 at 01:42 PM (#4009996)

If Stark’s hunch is right — that this mystery team can only sign Pujols with a deal in place to move its first baseman — then Boston seems like the obvious choice. What if Gonzalez has decided Boston isn’t all it’s cracked up to be?

What if TPTB in Boston have spoken to Gonzalez about a move to right field?

Also, let's say the Sox want to move AGon. Dealing a guy who's owed $150+ million over the next seven years is easier said than done. There's only a handful of teams who'd be willing to make that kind of commitment, and then there's the issue of what Boston would get in return. All of which is a long way to say I agree with Jim's comment above - Boston trading Gonzalez to sign Pujols seems like an awful lot of moving parts that would need to come together for relatively little potential gain.

7. Jefferson Manship (Dan Lee) Posted: December 08, 2011 at 01:43 PM (#4009999)

I know his defense is atrocious there, but could you imagine a lineup featuring the two best hitters in baseball back-to-back?

Wait, when did the Tigers get Bautista?

8. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 08, 2011 at 01:45 PM (#4010000)

No snark here, but a sincere question: how has Gonzalez shown himself to be the most creative Sock since Pedro and Schilling?

This is just one example, but it's my favorite:

After striking out and grounding out twice against Sabathia, once into an inning-ending double play, Gonzalez said to teammates and manager Terry Francona prior to their fourth encounter in the seventh inning that he was going to utilize a swing modeled after Ichiro Suzuki, whose iconic form sees him thrust his hips ahead of the rest of his body and almost sweep out of the box as he swings.

And compare the swings here. That was awesome.

Gonzalez has also made a number of clever plays in the field - one example is that he throws to third on ground balls with a runner on second more than any 1B I've ever watched. My reading of the numbers at B-Ref (which don't list assists to 3B, but do list total assists and all other possible assists) is that he had 16 assists to 3B last year. By comparison Youkilis averaged 5-6 assists to third in a season, and Millar 3-4.

9. villageidiom Posted: December 08, 2011 at 01:58 PM (#4010012)

My reading of the numbers at B-Ref (which don't list assists to 3B, but do list total assists and all other possible assists) is that he had 16 assists to 3B last year. By comparison Youkilis averaged 5-6 assists to third in a season, and Millar 3-4.

Pujols is known for the same thing, but is in the neighborhood of 10 per year. So, yeah, 16 is a lot.

10. Mattbert Posted: December 08, 2011 at 02:03 PM (#4010016)

That was awesome.

Yes indeedy. It's a shame the Sox blew it, otherwise that might have been remembered as an iconic moment in a fine season.

11. Textbook Editor Posted: December 08, 2011 at 02:22 PM (#4010024)

Gonzalez to RF would be all kinds of interesting. How bad would he have to be in RF before it would take away significantly from his contribution with the bat?

All that said, this just isn't going to happen; I know Boston gets out from under a few contracts next year (Dice-K, Scutaro, and I guess Ortiz possibly), but they're not going to go over the cap *and* push Gonzalez to RF to sign Pujols.

12. Jose is an Absurd Kahuna Posted: December 08, 2011 at 02:27 PM (#4010026)

Gonzalez to RF would be all kinds of interesting. How bad would he have to be in RF before it would take away significantly from his contribution with the bat?

I think we'd find out. Frankly if the Sox move Gonzalez to the outfield I would say move Crawford to right and Gonzalez to left. I don't think either guy has the arm for right but at least Crawford can cut off balls in the gap to avoid triples.

But yeah, this ain't happening.

13. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 08, 2011 at 02:34 PM (#4010030)

The other problem with moving Gonzalez to the outfield is that the Red Sox have two just about MLB-ready kids who play RF/CF, and Reddick and Kalish are by far the best prospects the Sox have. Making a move to block both of them doesn't make sense to me.

14. Gaylord Perry the Platypus (oi!) Posted: December 08, 2011 at 02:43 PM (#4010036)

As long as we're guessing, I'll go with the Tigers as the mystery team.

I agree. I can easily imagine the Tigers deciding that Pujols >>> Cabrera, especially when you include the off-the-field stuff (including conditioning). So they're looking for a taker on Cabrera, while trying to sign Pujols. I mean, this fits in perfectly with Puiliot's opening hypothesis, then he just makes a one line assumption that the Tigers aren't the team?

15. JJ1986 Posted: December 08, 2011 at 02:44 PM (#4010039)

I'll bet it's the Royals and they're trying to move Butler.

16. Zonk Sits on the Stool next to Slats Steely Posted: December 08, 2011 at 02:49 PM (#4010042)

Are the Angels not a 'mystery' - because everything I've heard the last 24 hours/since the Buerhle signing says it's between the Cardinals and the Angels.

17. Nasty Nate Posted: December 08, 2011 at 02:54 PM (#4010048)

I agree. I can easily imagine the Tigers deciding that Pujols >>> Cabrera, especially when you include the off-the-field stuff (including conditioning). So they're looking for a taker on Cabrera, while trying to sign Pujols.

Miggy back to the Marlins in this scenario?

18. Jose is an Absurd Kahuna Posted: December 08, 2011 at 03:00 PM (#4010052)

Tim Brown tweeting that the Angels got him, 10 years, 250-260

19. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 08, 2011 at 03:04 PM (#4010059)

Tim Brown tweeting that the Angels got him, 10 years, 250-260

Yikes.

I have a sneaking suspicion this is going to look a lot like the current ARod deal in 4-5 years.

20. Derb Posted: December 08, 2011 at 03:05 PM (#4010060)

Wait, when did the Tigers get Bautista?

I can buy that argument.

It's the Detroit homer in me, though. Bottom of the ninth, two outs, down by one, runner on... I would take Cabrera over Bautista.

21. Count Vorror Rairol Mencoon (CoB) Posted: December 08, 2011 at 03:07 PM (#4010064)

Yeah, Pujols to Angels is the headline on ESPN.com as well.

Wow, that's big.

I'm guessing Arte's going to have to raise the price of beer to cover this one ...

22. Nasty Nate Posted: December 08, 2011 at 03:07 PM (#4010065)

I have a sneaking suspicion this is going to look a lot like the current ARod deal in 4-5 years.

Having 4-5 great years followed by the current A-Rod deal doesn't sound all that terrible.

23. Mike Webber Posted: December 08, 2011 at 03:08 PM (#4010066)

ESPN reporting Pujols to Angels along with CJ Wilson, can't find link on line yet

24. Jefferson Manship (Dan Lee) Posted: December 08, 2011 at 03:12 PM (#4010072)

ESPN reporting Pujols to Angels along with CJ Wilson

Yowza. Weaver/Wilson/Haren/Santana is pretty stout.

25. toratoratora Posted: December 08, 2011 at 03:13 PM (#4010077)

ESPN says 10, $250.
Yowza. That's a lot of loot.

26. Jefferson Manship (Dan Lee) Posted: December 08, 2011 at 03:14 PM (#4010078)

I just wanted to say Yowza so it could be in three consecutive comments.

Yowza.

27. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 08, 2011 at 03:14 PM (#4010079)

Having 4-5 great years followed by the current A-Rod deal doesn't sound all that terrible.

Arod only had one "great" year on the new contract.

If I had to guess, I think Pujols has one more ~7 WAR season in him, and 3 or so 5 WAR seasons (so the first 4 years will be good) but will be in the 3 WAR range by year 5-6. The culprit will likely be 70% injury and 30% skill erosion.

28. McCoy Posted: December 08, 2011 at 03:15 PM (#4010080)

Well, if the Angels rumor is correct at least he'll be moving out of the division.

29. Nasty Nate Posted: December 08, 2011 at 03:16 PM (#4010081)

Yowza

30. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 08, 2011 at 03:16 PM (#4010084)

ESPN reporting Pujols to Angels along with CJ Wilson, can't find link on line yet

MLBTR is saying they offered CJ 5/70+. Don't think that's close to getting it done. The Yankees should top that in a heart beat.

Where is LAA getting all this money, BTW?

31. Mike Webber Posted: December 08, 2011 at 03:16 PM (#4010085)

Pujols to Angels $250/10 years USA Today

DALLAS -- Albert Pujols, who won three MVP awards and two World Series championships while crafting a St. Louis Cardinals legacy to rival Stan Musial, left the reigning champions of baseball on Thursday morning and signed a 10-year, $250 million contract with the upstart Miami Marlins, according to a person involved in the negotiations.

The person requested anonymity because Pujols must pass a physical for the deal to be final.

32. Famous Original Joe C Posted: December 08, 2011 at 03:17 PM (#4010087)

Yowza.

33. Jefferson Manship (Dan Lee) Posted: December 08, 2011 at 03:17 PM (#4010088)

Well, if the Angels rumor is correct at least he'll be moving out of the division.

Unless you're an Astros fan.

34. Mike Webber Posted: December 08, 2011 at 03:18 PM (#4010089)

ESPN mentioned something about their new local TV deal giving them a shot of money for the spending spree.

35. Famous Original Joe C Posted: December 08, 2011 at 03:18 PM (#4010090)

Pujols to Angels $250/10 years USA Today

DALLAS -- Albert Pujols, who won three MVP awards and two World Series championships while crafting a St. Louis Cardinals legacy to rival Stan Musial, left the reigning champions of baseball on Thursday morning and signed a 10-year, $250 million contract with the upstart Miami Marlins, according to a person involved in the negotiations.

The person requested anonymity because Pujols must pass a physical for the deal to be final.

Wait, what?

36. Jefferson Manship (Dan Lee) Posted: December 08, 2011 at 03:19 PM (#4010092)

signed a 10-year, $250 million contract with the upstart Miami Marlins, according to a person involved in the negotiations.

Yowza. That's some typo.

37. Nasty Nate Posted: December 08, 2011 at 03:19 PM (#4010095)

Arod only had one "great" year on the new contract.

the 'great' years I was referring to are the ones he had before the current contract, so if Pujols' deal with look like A-Rod's in 4-5 years, he will likely be a great player before that.

38. Avoid Running At All Times- S. Paige Posted: December 08, 2011 at 03:19 PM (#4010096)

#31-why does the article say the Marlins?

39. Zonk Sits on the Stool next to Slats Steely Posted: December 08, 2011 at 03:21 PM (#4010098)

Wait, what?

What's so confusing? He went to the Angels for 10/250 to sign with the Miami Marlins.

40. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 08, 2011 at 03:22 PM (#4010102)

the 'great' years I was referring to are the ones he had before the current contract, so if Pujols' deal with look like A-Rod's in 4-5 years, he will likely be a great player before that.

ARod signed his new deal after his age 31 season, just like Pujols. He had an MVP (10 WAR) year at 31, in his walk year. Since then he's only had one "great" year the 5.5 WAR first year.

I'm saying, Pujols contract will look more like his new deal, though I think Pujols will be a little better. I'd be shocked if Pujols has a 8-9 WAR season left in him.

41. Textbook Editor Posted: December 08, 2011 at 03:23 PM (#4010103)

It'll be interesting to see how Pujols does changing leagues.

42. Avoid Running At All Times- S. Paige Posted: December 08, 2011 at 03:24 PM (#4010106)

With the subtraction of Mathis and the addition of Pujols, my fancy projection system has the Angels scoring infinity runs in 2012.

43. Nasty Nate Posted: December 08, 2011 at 03:24 PM (#4010107)

I'm saying, Pujols contract will look more like his new deal, though I think Pujols will be a little better. I'd be shocked if Pujols has a 8-9 WAR season left in him.

44. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 08, 2011 at 03:26 PM (#4010112)

I'm sorry for the obnoxious nit-pick, but it seems like when you wrote "this is going to look a lot like the current ARod deal in 4-5 years" you meant "this is going to look a lot like the current ARod deal right away."

Sorry for any confusion. I meant, in 4-5 years, people will look back on the Pujols deal and feel the same way we feel about the ARod deal.

45. Textbook Editor Posted: December 08, 2011 at 03:30 PM (#4010125)

Of course, a "full no-trade clause" only means that the player can use it as a bargaining chip if/when he chooses to do so, to get extra $ if he's traded. I'd be really stunned if Pujols winds up his career in Anaheim.

46. Nasty Nate Posted: December 08, 2011 at 03:30 PM (#4010127)

gotcha

47. The Long Arm of Rudy Law Posted: December 08, 2011 at 03:45 PM (#4010170)

Well, if the Angels rumor is correct at least he'll be moving out of the division.

Unless you're an Astros fan.

Oh damn

48. Lassus Posted: December 08, 2011 at 04:39 PM (#4010297)

I can just never get excited about anything in Anaheim.

49. 1k5v3L

Posted: December 08, 2011 at 06:40 PM (#4010491)

If Stark’s hunch is right — that this mystery team can only sign Pujols with a deal in place to move its first baseman — then Boston seems like the obvious choice.

Nothing but roadkill over here, keep moving...

50. Brian

Posted: December 08, 2011 at 07:05 PM (#4010542)

He signed with the Los Angeles Marlins of Miami?

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