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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Tuesday, February 12, 2013
“[Kasten] made an unusual phone call—‘Larry, I can’t believe I’m making this phone call; in all my years of baseball, I’ve never made a phone call like this, but we have money to spend and we’re looking to take on some high-priced, high-quality players, so if you’re thinking of moving any of yours, don’t forget us,’ ” recalled Lucchino. “That prompted a specific review of that alternative.”
...
The Red Sox went on a nine-game, nine-day West Coast swing following the Dodgers blockbuster. With team principal owner John Henry, chairman Tom Werner and Lucchino parachuting in, a sense prevailed that the ax could fall on manager Bobby Valentine at any point. In fact, the owners were joining baseball operations officials on a fact-finding mission meant to gain a better sense of the ills plaguing the team and to determine a path forward.
...
“If you talk to people who participated in the process, starting with Ben Cherington, I think you will find a high degree of satisfaction as the offseason unfolded,” said Lucchino. We were able to improve in a number of areas, including the bullpen, which was an important part for us, and yet not give away prized prospects or future draft picks. I think that was the great accomplishment in this offseason. [Cherington] was able to have one eye on the present and never took the other eye off the longer-term future. I think we have a better, stronger team in ‘13. We have the capacity to have outstanding teams in ‘14 and ‘15.”
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1. boteman Posted: February 12, 2013 at 01:49 PM (#4367953)It's going to take some time, and I don't think Cherington is up to the job.
Less than when?
If more stars don't ever reach free agency, there are more of them that are available via trade (e.g. A-Gon, Dickey, Upton).
Already happened. In 2011 they were a disappointing would-be contender and in 2012 they finished in last place.
I agree. But a lot of people seem to be in denial.
They were an actual contender in 2011. Most people expected them to be contenders in 2012 as well.
Really? My perception is that it has swung the other way and some of that old school irrational Soxland negativity/pessimism has seeped back in.
I think Ray is right about Cherington. In a division with some smart guys running teams he's pretty clearly fifth out of the five.
(2) Hire somebody who knows his ass from a hole in the ground.
*The Sox haven't been burnt by long contracts. They were burnt by underperformers, injuries, bad trades and bad luck. Take away the players manager and sub in Valentine, add a toxic clubhouse=72 win team (69 when after they made The Punto Trade.) In fact 'long contracts' is probably around the bottom of the list.
"Some"..."Irrational"? This is the team who had the GREATEST SEPTEMBER COLLAPSE in history. Who went from a 90 win team to a 69 win team with pretty much the same team. I don't think there's anything irrational about thinking this is a team who finds ways to lose.
Regardless, Jose's 78-84 wins sounds about right.
thus contradicting every single post of yours about the Sox in the last 6 months....
Well time does happen, and things do change. But I still am willing to take the under on 80 wins if anyone wants a B-ref bet.
The guys on this board that are showing a more positive attitude I think are just squinting real hard to see something that has a very slight(5%) possibility(86-89 wins). Hey, I can be as positive as the next guy, but the reality here is the team is just isn't that good.
So I guess I'm saying nothing between 2nd and 4th would shock me.
I agree with this. I think 79 might be a little light but not enough to argue. I think "uninspiring" is the right word for this off-season.
See, I think "on paper" is where the team looks best (relative to thinking about the Sox in other ways, not relative to other teams in the league). If this team wasn't coming off of the choke of 2011 and the failure of 2012, the assembled team on paper would not generate the pessimism such as this:
edit: or it's pessimistic to think they only have a 5% chance at 86+ wins (not exactly 86-89 wins).
No pushes! The important thing about these bets is that b-r wins no matter what. If it's 80 wins, you each toss in $12.50 for a b-r sponsorship.
I'll take that at any dollar amount.
This is where we differ on the language. I think it's realistic to state they only have a 5% chance at 86+ wins. I think it's pessimistic to say they will repeat last years sterling effort of 69 wins. I'm being optimistic in projecting them to improve by 10 wins!
Well, this goes back to the "on paper" thing. When looking at a team on paper, you don't look at the team's previous year's record. E.G. if you are strictly using the "on paper" approach, you wouldn't expect Felix Doubront's pitching performance in 2013 to depend upon the team's win-loss record in 2012.
I'll agree to that if Dale will.
Unfair, Sean! 'Any dollar amount' of bb-ref sponsorship is free to you!
The offseason has been uninspiring because it was basically impossible to effectively spend the money they shed last year
I agree with this. The one and only reason for my optimism - such as it is - at this point is that most of the options I was expecting were worse than what they did do. I expected them to back the truck up for Hamilton or Greinke or even Swisher or somebody else. The fact that they signed some journeymen to 3-year deals is uninspiring, to be sure, but it's a good sign for the future because what I was expecting was Lackey reredux, and we didn't get that, and that is good.
Using this method, Zips really likes the Angels (51 WAR).
On the contrary, it was long term contracts to Manny and Pedro that led to the great teams in 2003-2004, and played a role in 2007.
What hurt the Red Sox most recently was their arbitrary decision to not spend more than the luxury tax threshold to compensate for 2 underperforming contracts in Lackey and Crawford, due to injuries coupled by a farm system which produced very little after 2008. What the farm system did produce was traded away for high salaried players like Gonzalez and relievers who did not perform.
The hiring of Bobby V and the performance of the medical staff have been icing on the cake. The guy responsible for this should be gone.
With the exception of Valentine - the hiring of whom is difficult for us to lay at the doorstep of any one particular actor - he is.
(And both CAIRO and PECOTA have the Yankees as 4-6 games better, I just now notice.)
Here's the deal Sean...I win, you have to change the wording on one of the many sponsorships saying this:
"Fans of the 28 teams not named Red Sox (or Yanks) sponsor(s) this page.
Congratulations, Boston. You couldn't win a title, so you bought TWO - just like the Yanks. Open the wallet for Curt, Keith, and Johnny - end 86 years of frustration. 175M reasons never to whine about NYY. PS 2007: Open wallet for Beckett, Daisuke, Lowell"
It always drove me crazy since Beckett and Lowell were trades.
And Petunia, that 1/2 and 1/2 push rule is fine with me.
Bah, I admit to becoming jaded by the great collapse of 2011 and the utter failure of 2012, that I have little faith in your fancy, schmancy projections to be accurate. Besides most of the those projections are generally +/- 3 wins so CAIRO is near enough to my 79 win prediction. The WAR prediction is for 84 wins, margin of error could see this as low as 81. I am the harbinger of doom.
Please let me state that I would be most happy to be proven wrong and have the Sox give 88 wins a nudge.
In a vacuum, my reactions to this offseason's moves so far would be, in emoticon form,
Signed Napoli : /
Re-signed Papi: : D
Signed Gomes : X
Signed Victorino : L
Signed Uehara ; )
Signed Dempster : J
Signed Drew : )
Traded Melancon et al for Hanrahan and Brock Holt! : |
Signed David Ross : 1
I actually quite like the Uehara signing, and I'm glad they re-signed Papi. The Drew signing makes ample sense, and the Dempster signing seems decent enough to me.
The problem I have, which I've belabored elsewhere so I won't here, is the strategy. This was far too conservative an approach for a team with a wad of $ and a bad ML roster.
Unless ... (my conspiracy theory) ... they are pulling a sneaky rebuild. If their record sucks near the trade deadline, I could see any of Uehara, Hanrahan, Napoli, Gomes, maybe even Drew or Ross, being trade bait. Plus Ellsbury, Salty if he's still around, Bailey if he's still around. All guys who could be useful additions to a contender and whose remaining contracts are reasonably short and tradeable.
It was a pretty weak FA market. They have a pretty good core in Pedroia, Papi, Ellsbury. WMB, Lester and Buchholz. Just needed to fill some holes which they have done nicely.
They will have a better idea of long term needs after another year development of their prospects. Market may be a bit better.
1. I think the Yankees are probably going to be a little better.
2. It doesn't seem very difficult to imagine the Yankees coming in around 81 wins if several things go against them: Tex continues his slide, ARod misses the year, Granderson remembers he's not really good enough to hit 40 homeruns, etc.
But the Red Sox have taken a very large step forward in projections. The Sox underperformed Pyth by five games. ZiPS projects an improvement in starting pitching of about 50 runs prevented. (Just look at this pitching staff.) That's ten games already. They've also upgraded the bullpen and the starting lineup. The Sox aren't great, but they project to be way better than they were last year.
You are probably right, also considering he barely pitched in games last year.
On the other hand, the chilly weather in April has been known to give players the Fenway Flu. Aceves or Morales could catch a case of it if the roster gets crunched.
I'm not sure it will (or should matter), but De La Rosa's service time could be a factor. He soaked up a significant chunk on the DL so despite barely losing his prospect eligibility he currently has 1 yr, 97 days of service time. If he gets ~3 months in Boston this year then they'll only control his right for four more years after this one.
I'd say with an already injured pitcher you should probably worry more about getting MLB productivity out of his healthy innings in 2013 than whether or not he'll be free agent eligible in 2018.
But they may see it differently, especially if their valuation of him is pretty high. If they think he's got a good shot to be a frontline starter, then blowing 2018 control for an innings limited 2013 season may not make sense.
I don't know that he could have. I'd prefer to have signed Hamilton than Napoli & Victorino but I can see the argument against. My comment wasn't based solely on this off-season but on his overall performance. I haven't seen anything from him so far that leads me to believe he's a particularly strong GM. I think some things that happened last year (Melancon disaster, Reddick's great year) were probably on the outlier side of results and make him look worse than he is but I'm unimpressed so far.
EDIT: I'll add that he deserves credit for not overreacting to last year and decimating the farm system for a high risk quick fix. I'd like to have seen a strong pursuit of Upton but I think it's a plus that the Sox kept their prospects in house..
I put Morales ahead of Aceves because I think it's more likely that Morales actually gets a rotation spot (even temporarily). Aceves hasn't started a game since the first half of 2011, whereas Morales last few appearances last year were starts.
The reason I had De La Rosa ahead of them was simply that he might be the best pitcher of the 3. Although I agree now that it is likely he starts in AAA.
Still makes me mad that of that group, Atchison was the guy they jettisoned.
I agree with Jose and MCOA (going out on a limb here) that DLR is PawSox ace. Morales gets the first crack at an open rotation slot. I'd like to see Aceves return to the role he played in 2011 - swingman/multi-inning fireman... what I think they will do with him is much less clear.
No, my problem with the Sox, as usual, is the BS that comes out of the F.O. For all the money they spent on a PR firm, they could go a long ways towards just shutting their mouths.
LARRY: "No no...it's not our fault...it's..CARL'S! It's that big contract we gave AGON!"
HENRY: "My hands are tied! (Takes string, loosely wraps string around his wrists) See! Tied!!"
At least this team is more rootable than last years...I kind of get a feeling that Gomes is going to piss me off at some point though.
Just to play devil's advocate a little: When they shut their mouths, they get hammered for remaining silent about the terrible season and for not "taking accountability" and for being more focused on other business endeavors, etc.
I understand being irked by whatever Lucchino chooses to spew at any given moment, but what comments are you referring to by Henry implying that his hands are tied?
It's too early to know who will be available. For example, in addition to free agents, this offseason lots of talent was moved between teams: Upton, Dickey, Reyes, Shields, etc.
To rehash old discussions a bit, that's what concerns me about all of these 3 year deals to average or slightly better players. When winter 2013-14 rolls around and they have money to spend, there is going to need to be a lot of reshuffling to open up starting spots for better players. Not impossible, surely, but it will take some creativity.
On another note, it turns out from the excerpt above of TFA, Cherington maybe doesn't even deserve credit for The Great Unburdening of last season. That was his one unmitigated positive contribution!
Nothing really, the Henry joke was just for context.
I'm not trying to be negative, really...but the OP makes it sound like that to Kasten, Beckett and Crawford wern't just throw ins to get AGON. Sox got salary relief, and some decent specs. I would hope that Ben explored the possibility of trading just Beckett and Crawford. Cause if they truly believed that signing AGON was a mistake, then I fear for them ever signing a superstar to a long contract.
$15m John Lackey
$13m Ryan Dempster
$13m Shane Victorino
$13m David Ortiz
$10m Dustin Pedroia
$ 8m Clay Buchholz
$ 5m Jonny Gomes
$ 3m Craig Breslow
$ 3m David Ross
I see nothing prohibitive here, except at 2B and DH. There's no reason Gomes can't be made a backup for his final year. Victorino could effectively play any OF position, freeing them up to pursue corner OFers if that's better.
Admittedly, there are a lot of players with options or arb-eligible. But if you're talking about not having the flexibility to shuffle the roster to make room for better players, they most certainly have a lot of flexibility.
And that's in the 2013-14 offseason. Here's the same list, for 2014-15:
$13m Shane Victorino
$12m Clay Buchholz
$ 0m John Lackey (at minimum)
And that's it.
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