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1. Russlan will never be fond of Jason Bay Posted: March 01, 2008 at 10:55 PM (#2703882)El Duque's foot also seems to be giving him problems. He's not concerned, but he is concerned. I can't wait for Dial to set an over/under on IP for him and then offer me a bet.
1b Kevin Millar?
or
1b/lf Aubrey Huff?
Will throw in Jay Gibbons.
As long as Beltran, Wright, Reyes, and Santana stay relatively healthy, the Mets are going to be fine.
Rotoworld reporting that Delgado's day-to-day.
Church has a Grade 2 concussion. Rotoworld is saying that will cost him a couple of weeks and that he could still be ready by Opening Day. Concussion can have lingering effects, though.
Even though I know from where you pulled those numbers, just reading them made me feel so much better.
Johan Santana will go 26-3 with a 1.26 ERA.
Bless you, my son.
Wait 'til this year!
I'd take a big under on that.
For an excellent, 93-95 win true-talent team, the Mets have a very risky feel.
I look at this roster, and can easily envision a cascading disaster leading to an 84-78 3rd place season.
At which point, Omar is canned, and Cashman, having finished off his contract with the Yankees, switches leagues and boroughs. Willie goes next, and is replaced with Larry Bowa brought in to "light a fire" under the team.
Hijinks ensue.
If the Mets struggle at all this year, the angst on this board will be out of sight.
It will be balanced, at least in part, by an upsurge in Schadenfreude
A. Yankees
B. Mets
C. Red Sox
D. All of the above
You know, Delgado could hit 30 homers and drive in 100 and not really have that good a year. Last year was pretty much a disaster and he hit 24 homers and drove in 87.
Cross, Saenz absolutely destroys lefties. He posted a 1.011 OPS against them from 2004-2006. Last year, he posted a .693 OPS but that was due to a .128 BABIP. He hit 3 homers in 47 AB and walked more than he struck out. I just don't know if he can play a credible 1st base.
Ideally, they need a player that can play a corner outfield spot and first.
Sanez can't do that.
As long as Willie uses him in the LOOGY role, but he is not that good a pitcher.
Nice.
I really can't get worried about this team too much after the addition of Santana. They have one of the top-5 starting pitchers, one of the top-5 SS, one of the top-5 third baseman, and one of the top-5 centerfielders in baseball.
Pedro Martinez is the team's second starter. Their 3rd and 4th starters won 15 games last season while posting ERAs under 4.00. And they have quality players at every position. This team is going to be really good.
For the 2007 D-Backs, a lot went wrong, but they can't claim to have hit the reasonably worst-case scenario jackpot since Valverde was put in the closer role and regained his 2005 form, instead of continuing his 2006. Otherwise, they might have a legitimate claim at having everything going wrong and winning 90 games.
A lot went right with their bullpen. Pena and Lyon had excellent seasons.
I really don't agree with this, Satan's spawn, unless your "cascading disaster" involves a team plane crash. Delgado slips a little more, Pedro is mediocre, neither Ollie nor Maine get to 200 IP and both pitch half a run per game worse than in 2007, Beltran plays only 130 games, Reyes doesn't get better... that's still a team that's a real threat to win 90 games.
True, but I think most non-Met fans expect all of those things to happen (except maybe Beltran missing time).
A "cascading disaster" would involve injuries to one of Santana/Wright/Reyes, and a few awful seasons from their middle-tier players.
Livan I can understand, but Davis was pretty good last year. 192.2 IP OF 111 era+ pitching is quite good. Youd like a tad more innings per start but that's a solid third starter.
Honestly, I have no cluse what to expect from the D-backs. Any win total between 80-95 would not surprise me.
Pedro is mediocre
Pedro will be good or he'll be hurt. He won't be mediocre.
Let me reiterate, I think this is a 93-95 win true-talent team. I expect them to be very good.
However, I think there is a real 10-20% chance they fall-apart.
I can see easily see Alou, Pedro and El Duque giving them very little due to age/injury, Delgado and Castillo declining quickly, and Schneider being an absolute black hole, offensively.
The pitching would still be good, but the offense could be basically Wright/Reyes/Beltran, and that's about it. They're terrific, but I could see this team struggling to score runs.
Castillo is a tough guy to project. He puts up consistently solid numbers and if you just look at his stats, there's every reason to expect him to have a good season in 2008. But the way he was hobbling around the bases last year is scary.
Personally, I am not worried about second. I think Gotay would be more than adequate offensively if the need arises. The defense would suffer but this is about as extreme a flyball staff as there is in baseball.
If Schneider sucks, Castro will get more playing time. The Mets posted a 107 OPS+ last season getting next to nothing from their starting catcher. It will be hard for Schneider to be much worse than Lo Duca and if he is, Castro will play more.
The Mets have no replacement for Alou. They are just hoping for 100 games from him.
This MRI is huge. The Mets are not designed to withstand injuries to any of our pillars -Wright, Reyes, Santana, Pedro. The other impossible to replace component is Delgado. There simply isn't any viable replacement for Delgado, either at 1B or in the lineup. He goes out for an extended period of time, and the season in danger.
It's just how this team is designed - the Mets are extremely top heavy. We can probably deal with injuries or ineffectiveness from our 2nd tier players better than most teams. Our bench is built as a set of specialized role players. But if we lose any our of key players, we're just not equipped to deal with it. And we gave up all our trading chips to get Santana.
I hope we can get to the trading deadline in good shape, and then salvage depth off of salary dumps from teams out of contention.
Yes, Russlan, but Saenz absolutely destroys lefties. He posted a 1.011 OPS against them from 2004-2006. Last year, he posted a .693 OPS but that was due to a .128 BABIP. He hit 3 homers in 47 AB and walked more than he struck out.
Bet you didn't know that ;-).
Nobody repeats info like I do.
How exactly will the Mets carry both Gotay and Saenz? Aren't they fighting for the last spot on the bench? Castro, Endy, Easley, Marlon are practically guaranteed to win spots. Unless they carry more bench players at the start of the year, one of the two will have to go. BTW, it would be outrageous if the Mets decide to lose Gotay to carry a guy who's older than Franco.
The Mets might keep only 11 pitchers for the first two weeks of the season. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if Easley/someone else starts the season the DL. It may be that Easley and Gotay don't make the team.
Basically, it comes down to this in my eyes. Whom do you think can hit lefties better, Church or Delgado at this stage in his career? Because if Gotay can play all the infield spots, where does Easley get playing time?
Delgado probably hits lefties better than Church (basically, I mean, hits everyone better than Church and has a similar platoon split) but Delgado is also a minus in the field while Church is a plus.
I also don't think you can put Delgado in the same category of irreplaceable as Wright, Reyes and Beltran.
Projected VORP:
Wright 69.3
Reyes 44.5
Beltran 44.0
...
Delgado 19.0
If (even) Marlon Anderson replaced Delgado it would be a step down but not devasatating.
If we dumped Saenz and went with Josh Phelps as the platoon caddy I'd be more comfortable.
I agree with this and your 10-20% chance of this Mets team falling apart. Outside of their 3-4 top players, this is an old team, it reminds me of those Dodger teams of the past 10 years where they had 3-4 young up and comers surrounded by +35-40 year old "name" players and little else but hope. But would consistently win 85-92 games. I don't that that is special.
I would put my money on Philly, unless Pedro's full time return is real.
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