If Teixeira does not change his approach to hitting, his career is finished.
Oh, he will still be playing first base for the Yankees, but his usually offensive production will significantly decline. And that massive contract won’t be looking so good anymore. His playing time will be based upon his contract and defense, and less upon his ability to hit.
And this is not some random “small sample size” garbage either. Teixeira has been on the down slope since he signed with the Yankees, especially in the areas of batting average* (ooh, that terrible stat), and on base percentage* (the really good stat, right?).
*It’s funny how many sabermetric guys discount batting average and how it is “meaningless.” But doesn’t batting average compose the largest portion of hitters’ on base percentage? Usually, when formerly productive hitters OBP declines, it is usually due to a lower batting average, rather than walk rates, which are pretty consistent for established major leaguers.
Teixeira’s decline actually began during the World Series title year of 2009, a title which Teixeira was a big part. His batting average has declined from .292 in 2009 to .256 in 2010 and .249 last season. Subsequently, his OBP have been .383 (2009), .365 (2010) and .343 last season. He hit over .300 with a .400 OBP the prior two years, so the decline started in 2009. Teixeira’s walk average** is consistently around .090. His slugging percentages have also dropped, with his last two seasons being the only years since his rookie campaign where Teixeira has not slugged over .500.
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1. madvillain Posted: April 14, 2012 at 10:03 PM (#4106786)Other than that, I rtfa and it wasn't bad, Tex does need to change his approach. Whatever he's doing isn't working.
It seems like he does since he writes;
Does Squeaky Fromme count? She got out three years ago.
Who says that?
Don't know about Delgado, but with Giambi and Ortiz the problem was seen more as a health or fitness issue associated with aging, and not a case of a healthy and fit player whose swing seems to be malfunctional.
And his production has dropped for three straight years.
Teixiera's OPS+ was 117 last year. Yes, it was the lowest mark since his rookie year and, yes, he could probably stand to try to tinker and make some adjustments. However, that 117 is higher than Tino Martinez's 113 average in his Yankee career, and there was rarely any gnashing of teeth over Tino's production. It's far from a given that he will continue to decline.
Teixeira always starts slow. I've drafted him early in the past few years in fantasy leagues(not this year), and watched him suck in April and May.
No it wasn't. Go back and look at the threads. You'll read tons of "messed up swings", "totally lost", etc. Remember when the NY press was suggesting Giambi should be sent back to AAA.
"Player looks bad while slumping" articles are always supplied in excess this time of the season. That said, as a non-Yankee fan, I am happy the length of his contract.
No it wasn't. Go back and look at the threads. You'll read tons of "messed up swings", "totally lost", etc. Remember when the NY press was suggesting Giambi should be sent back to AAA.
I do remember those AAA suggestions about Giambi, but I also remember that in 2004 he was diagnosed with a tumor that caused him to miss 82 games, and another injury made him miss 79 games in 2007. Those illnesses and injuries were not unrelated to his "messed up swing" and feelings of being "totally lost". When those illnesses or injuries went away, he was productive. Teixeira's problem is of a different nature, and the arc of his career since 2008 doesn't suggest it's going to resolve itself without some sort of adjustment. Perhaps he's just aging prematurely, but that's a bit too fatalistic a take for my money.
I'm sure the genius that is Kevin Long will figure something out for Tex...look what he did for Jeter. Oh, wait.
These are BABIP, IsoP, and BB% for Teixeira, then Giambi. I split their last three years before coming to New York from their first three or four years in New York. For Teixeira the numbers run 2006-2008, then 2009-2011. With Giambi, I dropped out his lost 2004 season, so his progression goes 1999-2001, then 2002-2003, 2005-2006:
.304, .342, .316 -> .302, .268, .239 (Teixeira BABIP)
.232, .257, .244 -> .273, .225, .246 (Teixeira IsoP)
.122, .125, .142 -> .115, .131, .111 (Teixeira BB%)
,333, .335, .343 -> .328, .259, .292, .245 (Giambi BABIP)
.238, .314, .317 -> .284, .277, .264, .305 (Giambi IsoP)
.151, .206, .192 -> .158, .187, .198, .190 (Giambi BB%)
Giambi had the exact same year-2 BABIP decline that Teixeira did, and he never recovered. Luckily for the Yankees, Giambi's secondary skills were so insanely great that he remained an excellent hitter even with that decline. Teixeira has maintained his excellent but not otherworldly secondary skills, while seeing the same BABIP decline, and this has left him merely a good hitter the last two seasons.
It still seems the most likely outcome for Teixeira is that his BABIP rebounds, but it's a weird little comp that I noticed last year, so I figured I'd collect the data and take a look.
I'm sure the genius that is Kevin Long will figure something out for Tex...look what he did for Jeter. Oh, wait.
"Oh, wait" what? Jeter's been very productive (offensively, anyway) since he came back from the DL last year. His current OPS+ is 160. Of course it took Jeter a long time to make the necessary adjustments to his stride, and there's no guarantee that Teixeira is capable of getting out of his must-pull-everything style.
The rip was on Kevin Long who had nothing to do with the Jeter resurgence. While Jeter was on the DL he went to the Yankees' training complex in Tampa to work with Gary Denbo who got Jeter away from the Long-fluenced toe-tapping nonsense.
He's utterly incapable of going the other way... that's turning him into a mistake hitter, nothing more.
I seem to remember this DelGrippo guy having written some dumb stuff before.
"Jason Gimabi's rainbow juice"
That work is considered proprietary by the Yankees.
Totally unfair, and you could say it about any slugger, but if you remove a very specific and cherry picked 39 PA from Teixeira's season last year (guess which ones), he spent his other 645 PA hitting .194/.301/.245. Those homers were valuable but they were rare exceptions to what usually looked like a terrible hitter hitting mile-high popups and not much else.
EDIT: To demonstrate doing it to any slugger, Granderson last year with his HRs removed hit .206/.303/.292. Which is not really much better at all, so maybe I'm off in what makes Teixeira annoying. Maybe it's just the popups.
He's 32, and his batting average started dropping at 30. I don't think that's all that premature, given that hitters generally tend to peak from ages 26-28, give or take.
Just FYI, here are Tex's most similar batters through age 31:
1.Carlos Delgado (934)
2.Jose Canseco (915)
3.Rocky Colavito (910)
4.Paul Konerko (905)
5.Jeff Bagwell (902)
6.Fred McGriff (900)
7.Reggie Jackson (896) *
8.Albert Belle (894)
9.Willie McCovey (891) *
10.Shawn Green (889)
* - Signifies Hall of Famer
Too bad he didn't sign with the Red Sox, he could at least count his right-handed popups as doubles.
2003 23 $750,000 102
2004 24 $2,625,000 131
2005 25 $3,625,000 144
2006 26 $6,400,000 126
2007 27 $9,000,000 149
2008 28 $12,500,000 152
2009 29 $20,625,000 121
2010 30 $20,625,000 144
2011 31 $23,125,000 117
2012 32 $22,500,000
2013 33 $22,500,000
2014 34 $22,500,000
2015 35 $22,500,000
2016 36 $22,500,000
They could probably save several dozen million dollars over the next few years by finding a way to move Teixeira to 3B and move The Rod back to shortstop. Let them take an entire year off to work on the fundamentals. It'll pay off in the long run.
I agree with Ray. (I like saying that once in a while!) Teixeira doesn't get grouped with guys like Cecil Fielder or Mo Vaughn, because his body type is different and he's got a few Gold Gloves, but he's a slow, slugging first baseman. For players like that to start on a downtick at age 30 or 31 is definitely non-unusual.
And the guy hit 39 home runs last year, so he might could be contributing a little while longer. Just saying.
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