Conclusion: This time it counts.

The only way that there can be a sixth game is if the score is 3-2 after five games. For the Series to go on to seven games, the team that is behind must win the sixth game. Remarkably, that has happened 31 out of 49 times or 63% of the time instead of the 50% you would expect. I can’t think of a good reason why this would happen. If you can, leave a comment.

One way that the score would be 3-2 after five games is if each team won their home games. If there is an advantage, then it must naturally flow that the home team in game six (the one with 2 wins) has a better chance of victory.

You can break down those 49 game sixes into two groups:

21 in which Team A (the one with HFA) is ahead 3 games to 2 ... Team A went 10-11 in these games, around P

28 in which Team A is behind 2 games to 3 ... Team A went 21-7 in these games.

Clearly the situation that skews the data is *not* a 3-2 series score, but a 3-2 series score with the home team being the one trailing.

This got me thinking about what other specific games might be skewed one way or the other. Here's what I found:

Series score...Team A's record in that game...win%
0-0 .... 47-30 .... .610
0-1 .... 18-12 .... .600
0-2 .... 5-7 ........ .417
0-3 .... 1-6 ........ .143
1-0 .... 27-20 .... .574
1-1 .... 18-20 .... .474
1-2 .... 13-12 .... .520
1-3 .... 8-5 ........ .615
2-0 .... 9-18 ...... .333
2-1 .... 15-11 .... .417
2-2 .... 14-20 .... .412
2-3 .... 21-7 ...... .750
3-0 .... 8-1 ........ .889
3-1 .... 9-7 ........ .563
3-2 .... 10-11 .... .476
3-3 .... 17-15 .... .531

I typed all this by hand, no cut and paste from my spreadsheet, so sorry if there are some mistakes in there.

To be continued in my next post...

Now I'm going to present the data a different way. The first column will be the series score, with the home team's number of games won listed first. The second will be the home team's record in those games, and the third the home team's winning percentage. Instead of being arranged in order by series score, I'll arrange it from most skewed record (percentage-wise) to least skewed.

Series score...home team's record...win%... deviation from 50%
0-3 .... 1-8 ........ .111 .... .389
3-0 .... 6-1 ........ .857 .... .357

2-3 .... 21-7 ...... .750 .... .250
0-2 .... 0-2 ........ .667 .... .167

3-1 .... 5-8 ........ .385 .... .115
0-0 .... 47-30 ..... .610 .... .110
0-1 .... 18-12 ..... .600 .... .100
2-2 .... 20-14 ..... .588 .... .088
1-2 .... 21-15 ..... .583 .... .083
0-2 .... 7-5 ........ .583 .... .083
1-0 .... 27-20 ..... .574 .... .074
1-3 .... 7-9 ........ .438 .... .063
3-3 .... 17-15 ..... .531 .... .031
1-1 .... 20-18 ..... .526 .... .026
3-2 .... 10-11 ..... .476 .... .024
2-1 .... 12-13 ..... .480 .... .020

I separated the 2 groups at the top because both of them seemed to by very clear situations. The first pair is obvious - sweeps. When one team is up 3-0, they usually win the next game.

The second one is not quite as obvious, but still very simple. These are games when a team behind in the series returns to their home stadium.

I've heard announcers talk about returning home and getting the crowd behind you, and how important that is, but I thought they were exaggerating. I guess not. Home field advantage appears to be at its most important in the these situations

Game 3 has started as I am posting this, and I don't know what the score is at this point, but it seems from this that there's a VERY good chance the Cards pull out the win tonight.

To clarify a couple things...

I think the first pair has nothing to do with HFA at all. It's just that when a team is up 3-0, they're usually the superior team (and maybe the other team has given up).

I have no idea how statistically significant any of this is, and I know there are some small sample sizes up there.

And I realize now it might have been better to rank the situations by the home team's winning percentage. Oh well, too late now.

Spiggz, great stuff. The number that leaps out at me is that home teams, in games 6 and 7 of World Series under this format, are 48-33. That's a .593 winning percentage, which in baseball ain't bad at all. It could be a random wander from .500 and it is certainly a random wander from .570, but in seat-of-the-pants inductive terms ... as Homer Simpson might say, I like those odds.

Prof. Burgess-Jackson has a perfectly logical point: in theory, neither team has an advantage. But I think "advantage" is a loosely-defined word, not a logically entailed concept. If you lose a series in 4 or 5 games, the concept of home-field advantage rarely enters people's minds. You simply got your butts kicked everywhere. When the series is more evenly matched, though, you definitely, on form, want to be back home for games 6 and 7.

In my 2nd post, the 4th line of stats should be:

0-2 .... 18-9 .... .667 .... .167

NOT

0-2 .... 0-2 .... .667 .... .167

And, further down, there is another line that shows a series score of 0-2. That should be 2-0

Sorry.

Spiggz, great stuff. The number that leaps out at me is that home teams, in games 6 and 7 of World Series under this format, are 48-33. That's a .593 winning percentage, which in baseball ain't bad at all. It could be a random wander from .500 and it is certainly a random wander from .570, but in seat-of-the-pants inductive terms ... as Homer Simpson might say, I like those odds.

Not just that, but it's not including cases where the game 6/7 home team was dominating (won 4-0 or 3-1) - thus never even forcing a game 6.