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Sunday, June 01, 2008

Denver Post: Paige: Time for Monforts to cash in biggest chip

No Holliday in Colorado for that anarcho-punk-do’d Woody Paige.

Holliday would be a significant addition for Cleveland, and the Rockies also could send best friend Garrett Atkins or Brad Hawpe.

In exchange, the Rockies could seek starting pitcher Cliff Lee (8-1, 1.88 ERA and four superb pitches), a middle reliever and an outfield prospect. The Rox, depending on the second player in the deal, play Ian Stewart at third or in left, and Ryan Spilborghs becomes a full-time starting outfielder who could be the next Holliday.

Or, consider: The Rockies acquire Cleveland pitcher C.C. Sabathia, who got off to a terrible start before settling. It would be 2007 Cy Young winner for MVP runner-up.

...The Giants? Holliday would be The New Left Fielder, and perhaps the Rockies could pry Tim Lincecum, and others, away from them.

Repoz Posted: June 01, 2008 at 11:57 AM | 19 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: rockies

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   1. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: June 01, 2008 at 02:16 PM (#2801951)
Why on earth would Sabathia re-sign with the Rockies, if they traded for him? It's not like he won't have the chance to get the sake money with better teams at lower altitudes.
   2. Mattbert Posted: June 01, 2008 at 02:41 PM (#2801959)
I have a feeling Mark Shapiro put Woody up to this. Holliday+Atkins for Lee, unnamed OF "prospect," and a random bullpen arm? The only challenge for Shapiro in making that trade would be trying to refrain from giggling like Tickle-Me-Elmo until he got off the phone.
   3. Flynn Posted: June 01, 2008 at 02:59 PM (#2801968)
It's not like he won't have the chance to get the sake money with better teams at lower altitudes.

I don't know. Denver does have a large Japanese-American population.
   4. jwb Posted: June 01, 2008 at 03:21 PM (#2801978)
[H]itters can be found for Coors Field. Ask Dante Bichette.
Coors Field can make not so good hitters look good. For many years, the Rockies stocked their roster with this sort of player and didn't win while Todd Helton got another year older.

And agent Scott Boras has proven he will not permit his prized free agent to sign for a hometown discount.
And the Rockies need a hometown discount because? The Monforts are paupers? Denver is really poorer than the favelas of Sao Paulo? There is a secret clause in the MLB Constitution which denies unearned revenue sharing monies to teams in the Mountain Time Zone? God hates the Rockies and/or the Monforts? Scott Boras is Evil Incarnate for trying to get his clients the most money he can in the short amount of time they have to earn it?

By the way, Matt Holliday is from Stillwater, OK. He was born there and went to high school there. I don't think he considers Denver his hometown. But I hear the schools are good, which should be enough to get a discount based on the cost of a private school tuition. Say, $25,000 per year per child. This adds up over the course of an eight year contract, figuring two children, to two seasons of a AAA callup.

During spring training, a Rockies minor-league manager (who was being positive, not critical) told me the organization's crop of prospects soon "will be backed up," and the franchise's fathers are too proud of those prospects to let them go in deals.
So if they have another Holliday type in waiting, trading Holliday at his peak value might make good sense if they can get Something Large in return (not in the Bartolo Colon sense). Unless the potential future Holliday is really more of a potential future Bichette and puts them back on the not very good player who looks pretty good if you don’t look too closely and not winning treadmill. Ryan Spilborghs is not the answer to the potential future Holliday question. He’s three months older than Holliday. Potential future Mike Easler? I could be convinced of that.

Or, consider: The Rockies acquire Cleveland pitcher C.C. Sabathia, who got off to a terrible start before settling. It would be 2007 Cy Young winner for MVP runner-up.

Sabathia will be a free agent at the conclusion of the season. But it would make sense for dollars to the proven 27-year-old left-hander — probably close to $100 million over five years. He would be precious for years for the Rockies' pitching staff. The Monforts have to get over the Hampton/Neagle debacle. There is a humidor at the ballpark, and the Rockies always need a (No. 1) starter.
Trading a year and a few months of Holliday for a few months of Sabathia makes no sense. Why would Sabathia re-sign to stay in Colorado? Wouldn’t it be easier and cheaper to entice a very good hitter to stay than a very good pitcher? The humidor effect has reduced Coors Field from being a ballpark of historical outlier proportions to merely the best offensive environment in the National League. I don’t think “Coors Field won’t trash your career statistics as much as it would have a few years ago!” is a real good selling point for signing a very good free agent pitcher to a long term contract. “Petco Park will reduce your home runs allowed and our center fielder will only be 31 next season!” might be better.
   5. SantoFan Posted: June 01, 2008 at 06:00 PM (#2802039)
The Giants? Holliday would be The New Left Fielder, and perhaps the Rockies could pry Tim Lincecum, and others, away from them.


No.
   6. Vegas Watch Posted: June 01, 2008 at 06:04 PM (#2802048)
I was about to quote the same thing. I especially like the "and others" part. Clearly Woody has a strong handle on player value.
   7. Social media assassin (Templeusox) Posted: June 01, 2008 at 06:17 PM (#2802063)
The Rockies were good and lucky during a couple of months that ended in "ber" last year, and the National League pennant will fly for- ever in LoDo. But for most of the months that end in "ril," "ay," "une," "uly" and "ust" the past 11 years, the Rockies have been bad (below .500) and unlucky.
That's just good writing.
   8. wcw Posted: June 01, 2008 at 07:06 PM (#2802170)
Holliday is a legitimately good hitter, but his greatness is the usual Coors Field mirage. His road OPS a solid-but-unspectacular 800. Ellis Burks he ain't.

As for the mooted trades, I'm not sure this column screams 'Cleveland called.' Sure, they're the focus, but this reads more like a columnist filling inches. Jennings, Harden, and why not Lincecum? Yeah, that's the ticket!
   9. Kirby Kyle Posted: June 01, 2008 at 07:27 PM (#2802214)
I also like to speculate about fantasy trades, but nobody ever publishes my columns.
   10. jwb Posted: June 02, 2008 at 11:58 AM (#2802830)
Holliday is a legitimately good hitter, but his greatness is the usual Coors Field mirage.
The usual Coors Field mirage has dimmed down a bit lately but it's still there. Compare his road rate stats from 2007 to the better seasons of Brian Giles, Bernard Gilkey, or Marquis Grissom. Then think of other recent NL outfielders whose last names don't begin with "G" and are not Griffey or Guerrero. He's very good, and a would be a good complementary player to have on a winning team, but not a centerpiece.
   11. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader Posted: June 02, 2008 at 12:05 PM (#2802834)
The Giants? Holliday would be The New Left Fielder, and perhaps the Rockies could pry Tim Lincecum, and others, away from them.

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha! Good one Woody! Because Holliday is exactly as good as Bonds and Lincecum is going to fall apart any second. Sabean would be crazy not to make this trade. Crazy!
   12. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: June 02, 2008 at 12:52 PM (#2802848)
"Compare his road rate stats from 2007 to the better seasons of Brian Giles, Bernard Gilkey, or Marquis Grissom."

WTF is Giles doing in the same sentence as those two pluggers?

You don't need to go back into the mists of time (and one of Giles's better seasons) to make that comparison:
Giles, road, 2008: .350/.456/.495
Giles, road, 2007: .299/.374/.496
Giles, road, 2005: .333/.463/.545

Road Giles = badass.
   13. Greg Maddux School of Reflexive Profanity Posted: June 02, 2008 at 01:05 PM (#2802857)
After all these years, people still point to Rockies' road numbers and say, "A-ha! The truth lies here"?
   14. RB in NYC (Now with New iPhone!) Posted: June 02, 2008 at 01:14 PM (#2802862)
After all these years, people still point to Rockies' road numbers and say, "A-ha! The truth lies here
Sadly, yes.
   15. jwb Posted: June 02, 2008 at 01:56 PM (#2802889)
This is what I had in mind:
Holliday (Away)
2007 .301  .374  .485

Giles
1996 .355  .434  .612  
1997 .268  .368  .459  
1998 .269  .396  .460  
1999 .315  .418  .614  
2000 .315  .432  .594  
2001 .309  .404  .590  
2002 .298  .450  .622  
2003 .299  .427  .514  
2004 .284  .374  .475
2005 .301  .423  .483

Gilkey
1990 .297  .375  .484  
1993 .305  .370  .481  
1995 .298  .358  .490  
1996 .317  .393  .562  
1999 .294  .379  .500

Grissom
1996 .308  .349  .489
2003 .300  .322  .468 

Grissom was better at making outs.
   16. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: June 02, 2008 at 02:06 PM (#2802894)
Holliday would be a significant addition for Cleveland, and the Rockies also could send best friend Garrett Atkins or Brad Hawpe.

In exchange, the Rockies could seek starting pitcher Cliff Lee (8-1, 1.88 ERA and four superb pitches), a middle reliever and an outfield prospect. The Rox, depending on the second player in the deal, play Ian Stewart at third or in left, and Ryan Spilborghs becomes a full-time starting outfielder who could be the next Holliday.


I have to think if the Rox offered Holliday AND Atkins/Hawpe for Lee, Rafael Betancourt and Ben Francisco, the Indians would jump all over that, wouldn't they?
   17. Tom Nawrocki Posted: June 02, 2008 at 02:26 PM (#2802907)
I like Ryan Spilborghs as much as the next guy, but the fact that he's actually four months older than Matt Holliday would seem to weigh against the possibility of him being the next Matt Holliday.
   18. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L) Posted: June 02, 2008 at 02:31 PM (#2802911)
Guys, guys. Why would the Rockies trade away guys? The Rockies are going to hit any time soon. They're going to turn around and bash the hell out of all those chest puffers in the NL West. I know.

Tracy Ringsolsby told me so.

Also, Paige is apparently qualified to work for a congressman. He's already a whack job.
   19. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: June 02, 2008 at 02:31 PM (#2802914)
I have to say that as largely decent as Spilborghs has been, I still think I'd give Seth Smith the first shot at that job.

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