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Tuesday, February 12, 2019

Derek Jeter on Marlins low win projection: ‘I would take it as a slap in the face’

The 2019 Miami Marlins aren’t projected to win many games. That shouldn’t come as a surprise, especially after the team traded catcher J.T. Realmuto to the Philadelphia Phillies last week.

Because of that, FanGraphs projects the Marlins to win just 65 games in 2019. When asked about that low win total, Jeter didn’t get angry or try to refute that number. He instead tried to use it as a motivational tactic for his current players.

Jeter said he would take that projection as a “slap in the face if I was a player.” He then added that players should always look to prove people wrong.

For those of you who’ve wanted to see a man with absolutely no sense of shame, look no further.

QLE Posted: February 12, 2019 at 05:16 AM | 40 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: derek jeter, marlins baseball – helping other teams get better since 1998, projections

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   1. Koot Posted: February 12, 2019 at 07:37 AM (#5814526)
He then added that players should always look to prove people wrong.


He then pointed to his Gold Glove awards and said "like those analytics people who said I was a terrible defensive shortstop".
   2. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 12, 2019 at 08:02 AM (#5814528)
Jeter said he would take that projection as a “slap in the face if I was a player.” He then added that players should always look to prove people wrong.

WTF do the players have to do with it?

He's the idiot or profiteer (take your pick there are only two options) who traded away all their actual major leaguers for a pile of crap.
   3. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: February 12, 2019 at 08:50 AM (#5814541)
As luck would have it, a whole lot of people would like to give him a slap in the face, so it works out great.
   4. manchestermets Posted: February 12, 2019 at 08:51 AM (#5814542)
Ah, but if you tell the pile of crap that it's a pile of crap, it will stop being a pile of crap. I think.
   5. Tony S Posted: February 12, 2019 at 08:58 AM (#5814545)
65 wins? I'd actually take the under.
   6. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: February 12, 2019 at 09:04 AM (#5814547)
Ah, but if you tell the pile of crap that it's a pile of crap, it will stop being a pile of crap. I think.
As a non-citizen, your obvious unfamiliarity with US politics is understandable, but...
   7. Nasty Nate Posted: February 12, 2019 at 09:08 AM (#5814549)
Because of that, FanGraphs projects the Marlins to win just 65 games in 2019.
I suspect that is one of the lowest pre-season team win projections Fangraphs has ever done.
   8. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 12, 2019 at 09:12 AM (#5814553)
I suspect that is one of the lowest pre-season team win projections Fangraphs has ever done.

Take a look at their depth chart, and you'll think it's optimistic.

   9. Greg Pope Posted: February 12, 2019 at 09:16 AM (#5814554)
Maybe he thinks Major League was a documentary?

Jeter: I know we've got no real players, but if we properly motivate them, they'll just go out and win the whole damn thing!
Staff: That will never work, our players are terrible.
Jeter: It worked in Major League.
Staff: The players in that movie hated the owner. Should we make them hate you?
Jeter: Nobody could ever hate me. Let's make them hate FanGraphs. Everybody hates them since they think I was the worst defensive shortstop in the history of the game.
   10. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: February 12, 2019 at 09:42 AM (#5814562)
I suspect that is one of the lowest pre-season team win projections Fangraphs has ever done.

Poor Starlin Castro.

The good news for him is that the Marlins probably aren't going to pay him $16 million next year so they might try and move him at the deadline.
   11. Rally Posted: February 12, 2019 at 09:51 AM (#5814564)
I suspect that is one of the lowest pre-season team win projections Fangraphs has ever done.


Have they released a projection for the Orioles yet?
   12. Dillon Gee Escape Plan Posted: February 12, 2019 at 10:01 AM (#5814568)
Have they released a projection for the Orioles yet?


Orioles are projected for 62-100.

Fangraphs' projected standings are based on Steamer projections.
   13. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: February 12, 2019 at 10:35 AM (#5814575)
Have they released a projection for the Orioles yet?
It was a two-word projection which simply read "Sh*t Sandwich."
   14. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: February 12, 2019 at 11:27 AM (#5814595)
The question was surely directed at his moves in dumping players. Then he passed the buck to the players.

Classic jetes.
   15. Powderhorn™, arrogant local sailing champion Posted: February 12, 2019 at 12:52 PM (#5814618)
After the first couple of salary dumps I thought that perhaps our universal scorn for Jeter was misplaced. He's a minority owner, I thought. We’re looking at the roster pillages made by a group and we’re blaming one guy because he’s the only one we’ve heard of, I thought.

I no longer think that. Clearly he has chosen to be the public face of this ownership group. He’s owning their decisions. So I am now on board with the numerous others who think that Jeter has, so far, done nothing to suggest that he isn’t Loria 2.0.
   16. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: February 12, 2019 at 01:18 PM (#5814626)

I no longer think that. Clearly he has chosen to be the public face of this ownership group. He’s owning their decisions.

It's what they're paying him for. I don't know that the details were ever officially confirmed, but unofficially:

Jeter will invest between $20 million to $25 million and own about 2% of the Marlins. But for running the team's baseball operations Jeter will get a $5 million salary, $4 million management fee and $1 million travel budget, according to people familiar with the terms of the deal.


Whether you're actually the one calling the shots or not, but if you're getting paid $9 million per year to be the front man by the people who are, you have just as much responsibility as they do.
   17. jmurph Posted: February 12, 2019 at 01:27 PM (#5814628)
Clapper is presumably still taking a wait and see approach.
   18. Nasty Nate Posted: February 12, 2019 at 01:29 PM (#5814629)
Clapper is presumably still taking a wait and see approach.
Ha ha.
   19. DCA Posted: February 12, 2019 at 01:43 PM (#5814631)
Whether you're actually the one calling the shots or not, but if you're getting paid $9 million per year to be the front man by the people who are, you have just as much responsibility as they do.

I'd shill for just about anything for $9 million per year. Doesn't make me responsible, but for that price I'm fine with having people think so.
   20. jmurph Posted: February 12, 2019 at 01:44 PM (#5814632)
Oh man this was a hilarious way to spend 5 minutes:
The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 29, 2017 at 01:17 PM (#5541673)
I'm not sure why folks are paying so much attention to entirely speculative stories, The "slashing payroll" theme is entirely media driven. It doesn't make much sense for the new ownership to get rid of their best player before even trying to promote him to what should be a more attentive fan base and seeing what advantages come from a morning again for Miami Marlins marketing campaign.

The Yankee Clapper Posted: October 13, 2017 at 03:05 PM (#5553311)
Given how the coverage of the Marlins sale was all over the place with contrary reports on who was winning the bidding process, we might want to hold off crediting every anonymous source that claims to know what the future portends for the team.

The Yankee Clapper Posted: October 13, 2017 at 03:51 PM (#5553364)
There were specific "statements", whether they are "facts" remains unknown. Seems clear that the Marlins will spend what Bruce Sherman wants to spend, or what Jeter can convince him to spend if you prefer. None of these Marlins articles appear to be sourced to the Sherman camp, just anonymous Loria holdovers or those being shown the door, and folks allegedly tied to MLB. I suspect the MLB source isn't Rob Manfred, but it could be the guy who gets his coffee and relies on BBTF for his insight. It's not surprising that reporters are still relying on their old sources if that's all they have, but more than a few grains of salt should be mandatory. Trying to grow revenue, rather than cut player payroll, still seems like the smart move.

The Yankee Clapper Posted: August 27, 2017 at 02:17 PM (#5521864)
Exactly. The obvious plan is to rapidly wash away the Loria negativity, sell the fans on the new owner's being committed to winning, and increase revenues at the gate and with local TV. Keeping Stanton is part of that process, especially with the season he's putting up. I suppose Buster Olney, or some of us BBTF clowns, might trade Stanton, but Derek Jeter certainly won't.

The Yankee Clapper Posted: August 27, 2017 at 06:25 PM (#5522019)
That's not correct, either. The Marlins are drawing ~21,000 a game, not great and only 28th in MLB, but that's still more than halfway toward a realistic goal of increasing attendance to 30,000 - 35,000 over the next 2 or 3 seasons. The Marlins want to bring in new fans who were turned off by Loria, or who are transplants with already established rooting interests, but they don't want to alienate those already supporting the team. Luckily, the same strategy works for both groups - keep Stanton and build a better team over the next few seasons, sticking with a multi-year strategy rather than holding a fire sale anytime things don't pan out immediately.
   21. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: February 12, 2019 at 01:50 PM (#5814633)
It's pretty clear the Marlins exist as a scam to hump the public treasury and MLB revenue sharing. I'm 100% sure this is how Loria pitched the sale. They are the "non-profit" online university of the sports world.
   22. Zonk would like to buy all your Greenlands Posted: February 12, 2019 at 02:04 PM (#5814640)
There will be a cardboard giftbasket.

Each win, the team will off a sticker revealing the goodies therein.

Win #63 will reveal the ultimate prize: Edible Jeter-autographed panties.

Go to work, guppies!
   23. Howie Menckel Posted: February 12, 2019 at 02:08 PM (#5814641)
per 20: on Twitter they call those @FreezingColdTakes - the antithesis of a "hot take."

an old Ian O'Connor column with the 2000 headline PATRIOTS WILL REGRET HIRING BELICHICK

last fall, Ian literally wrote the book on that coach.

in 1995, when the Yankees hired a new manager, Ian's column ran with this famous tabloid headline:

CLUELESS JOE
TORRE HAS NO IDEA WHAT HE'S GETTING INTO

(10 championships later, both teams seem ok with their selections)

................

ooh, I see another good one from MSN Sports, from 2015:

SHIELDS' NO. 1 REASON FOR PICKING PADRES OVER CUBS: WINNING

   24. base ball chick Posted: February 12, 2019 at 02:24 PM (#5814645)
The Yankee Clapper Posted: August 27, 2017 at 02:17 PM (#5521864)

Exactly. The obvious plan is to rapidly wash away the Loria negativity, sell the fans on the new owner's being committed to winning, and increase revenues at the gate


- by having elcheapo crappy players which decreases the payroll and increases profits for owners!!
YAYYYYYYYYYY

- continuing the loria tradition

the slap in the face is jeter pretending that a bunch of AAAA guys are gonna win much of anything. i be surprised if they didn't compete for the 62 Mets All Time Sacred Won-Loss Record
   25. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: February 12, 2019 at 02:27 PM (#5814647)
Edible Jeter-autographed panties.


Game-worn?
   26. BrianBrianson Posted: February 12, 2019 at 02:39 PM (#5814650)
Really, I don't see what Jeter's done here that isn't, essentially, the right choice. The reality that the Marlins probably ain't going to be a great team, well, if he disputed that, he'd get a lot of grief.

Even if you're rebuilding, saying "No, we don't plan to be competitive this year - let's face it, our current players suck." - well, I think he'd get a lot of criticism for that tack, too.

So, "Hey, people may think we're bad, but that'll just motivate us to try our hardest" - well, it's a bit optimistic, but a bit of optimism (which here, isn't presented with any obviously false statements) is probably best for sell to the fan. I don't see what I could do differently in his situation.
   27. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: February 12, 2019 at 02:48 PM (#5814657)
Well, he made his own bed when he traded what could have been an all time great outfield.
   28. base ball chick Posted: February 12, 2019 at 02:49 PM (#5814658)
Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: February 12, 2019 at 02:48 PM (#5814657)

Well, he made his own bed when he traded what could have been an all time great outfield


zackly
   29. BrianBrianson Posted: February 12, 2019 at 03:00 PM (#5814664)
I suppose, but it's not really relevant. As far as the interview above, I'm not sure what one could do better.
   30. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: February 12, 2019 at 03:05 PM (#5814666)
zackly
Take it to the Britton thread.
   31. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: February 12, 2019 at 03:08 PM (#5814667)
Any chance a writer withholds his HOF vote from St. Derek for conduct detrimental to the best interests of Major League Baseball as owner of the Marlins?
   32. bbmck Posted: February 12, 2019 at 03:53 PM (#5814675)
214 players played for the Marlins in their first MLB game, seasons of 3+ pitching or position player WAR in their careers so far, *debut since 2004:

12: Miguel Cabrera
7: Al Leiter
6: *Giancarlo Stanton, *Anibal Sanchez, Josh Beckett
5: *Christian Yelich, Luis Castillo, Edgar Renteria, Livan Hernandez, Alex Fernandez
4: Mark Kotsay, Carl Everett, Charles Johnson, *Josh Johnson, Ryan Dempster
3: *Dan Uggla, Dontrelle Willis, AJ Burnett, Rick Helling, Trevor Hoffman
2: *JT Realmuto, *Marcell Ozuna, *Jose Fernandez, *Jason Vargas, Brad Penny
1: *Brian Anderson, *Logan Morrison, *Josh Willingham, Alex Gonzalez, Quilvio Veras, *Ricky Nolasco, Nate Robertson, Tony Saunders, Robb Nen, Luis Aquino

49 of those 117 seasons were for the Marlins. The Marlins have 70 seasons of 3+ pitching or position player WAR by players who debuted since 1993. Among players who debuted since 1993 there are 1578 seasons of 3+ position player WAR and 899 seasons of 3+ pitching WAR so the average team only has ~83 such seasons.

Since 2004, 124 players have made their MLB debut for the Marlins, 27 of their 36 3+ WAR seasons have been for the Marlins, the Marlins have had 37 seasons of 3+ WAR by players who debuted since 2004 and with 1225 the average team has had ~41 such seasons.

2018 Marlins who had a 3+ WAR season during their career:

6 - Martin Prado, 1/15 left on contract
3 - Starlin Castro, 1/12.857 or 2/27.857 left on contract
2 - JT Realmuto, traded to Phillies
1 - Brian Anderson, pre-Arb
1 - Cameron Maybin, traded to Mariners, currently FA
1 - Dan Straily, Arb2 $5mil in 2019
1 - Wei-Yin Chen, 2/42 or 3/58 left on contract

Active players have 1052 seasons of 3+ WAR so the average team has ~35. The Marlins have 12 unless, HAHAHAHAHAHA, they have acquired such a player this off season. Derek Jeter has 14 so maybe he can pencil himself in as DH for an inter-league game or two, the Marlins get the AL Central along with "rivalry" games against the Rays so sadly can't play in Yankee Stadium unless the World Series is a 2003 rematch.
   33. The Yankee Clapper Posted: February 12, 2019 at 04:27 PM (#5814679)
#20 doesn't quite capture the relevant context. I thought the best move for the new ownership was to emphasize that a new day had dawned for the Marlins - no more Loria - while marketing the hell out of Stanton (who had a huge season) for at least 1 year to see if the fan base would respond. Many here and elsewhere insisted that the Marlins had to get out from under Stanton's contract because of the backloaded costs (and Stanton may have wanted out). It seemed at the time that some observers were awfully quick to assume that Marlins were committed to getting rid of Stanton, but that option prevailed, although I still think it may have been wrong. Since then, the Marlins have gone the "rebuild rather than remain in the middle" route, which is a tough sell in the short-run, although ownership doesn't have much choice other than to suggest that the team could surprise.
   34. Nasty Nate Posted: February 12, 2019 at 04:38 PM (#5814681)
Nah, you were predicting what they would do, not what they should do.

There's nothing wrong with predictions that don't come true, but people will make fun of you if the motivation for making the predictions was lighting a shrine candle for Saint Jeets.
   35. The Yankee Clapper Posted: February 12, 2019 at 05:07 PM (#5814693)
I know what I said, and I merely suggested a plan that had sufficient upside that I thought the Marlins would go that way, too. But it wasn't my money, nor [mostly] Jeter's, and the Marlins decided to go the lower-risk, lower-budget route. That's unfortunate, but given how MLB incentivizes such behavior I suppose it's not that surprising in retrospect.
   36. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 12, 2019 at 07:23 PM (#5814718)
Really, I don't see what Jeter's done here that isn't, essentially, the right choice. The reality that the Marlins probably ain't going to be a great team, well, if he disputed that, he'd get a lot of grief.


1) They didn't need a complete tear down. The team was decent. They wanted to tear down to increase cash flow and pay down their debt/reap immediate profits.
2) Jeter traded the 2017 MVP, the 2018 MVP, and a guy coming off a 5 win season, and has basically nothing to show for it. That's remarkable.
   37. Best Dressed Chicken in Town Posted: February 12, 2019 at 08:10 PM (#5814733)
7: Al Leiter

Did not debut with the Marlins
   38. bbmck Posted: February 12, 2019 at 08:35 PM (#5814739)
Oops, first career batting game doesn't work for AL pitchers, guess I should have done first season and then looked up the TOT players.

12: Miguel Cabrera
6: *Giancarlo Stanton, *Anibal Sanchez, Josh Beckett
5: *Christian Yelich, Luis Castillo, Edgar Renteria, Livan Hernandez
4: Mark Kotsay, Carl Everett, Charles Johnson, *Josh Johnson, Ryan Dempster
3: *Dan Uggla, Dontrelle Willis, AJ Burnett, Trevor Hoffman
2: *JT Realmuto, *Marcell Ozuna, *Jose Fernandez, *Jason Vargas, Brad Penny
1: *Brian Anderson, *Logan Morrison, *Josh Willingham, Alex Gonzalez, Quilvio Veras, *Ricky Nolasco, Nate Robertson, Tony Saunders

Alex Fernandez, Rick Helling, Robb Nen and Luis Aquino also don't debut for Marlins.
   39. JJ1986 Posted: February 12, 2019 at 08:36 PM (#5814740)
Did not debut with the Marlins
Neither did Rick Helling or Robb Nen.
   40. jmurph Posted: February 13, 2019 at 10:42 AM (#5814850)
I merely suggested a plan that had sufficient upside that I thought the Marlins would go that way, too.

Hmmmmm:
I suppose Buster Olney, or some of us BBTF clowns, might trade Stanton, but Derek Jeter certainly won't.

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