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Thursday, December 14, 2017

Derek Jeter Was Once the Captain. But Now He’s the Apprentice. - The New York Times

The Marlins aren’t trying to shed salary. Stanton was traded because he didn’t want to stick around. At least that’s the company line Michael Hill was peddling on MLB Network yesterday.

Jim Furtado Posted: December 14, 2017 at 07:01 AM | 107 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: derek jeter, marlins

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   101. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 16, 2017 at 11:35 AM (#5593689)
There was no sell-off after 2003, and the Marlins had an exciting young team that had just beat the Yankees in the WS -- and in 2004, they drew 1.7 million fans.

Except the part where they let their best player and closer leave as free agents, traded their best hitter for an unknown who ended up being a huge bust, and didn't add any significant talent.

   102. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: December 16, 2017 at 11:44 AM (#5593693)
It's always Braden Looper's fault.
   103. fra paolo Posted: December 16, 2017 at 11:45 AM (#5593694)
But we still don't really know how a team with strong, good-faith ownership would do in Miami.

I would agree with this, as opposed to the idea that a well-run team will transform Miami into a sure-fire winner of a market.

The question is whether it is worth spending $1.2 billion to find out. That's a steep price when even the 'heyday' of the franchise (1993-97) doesn't look too promising.

Huzienga might have had the opposite effect in Miami -- he poisoned the well so badly that the Miami-area fans have developed a long-lasting skepticism about the organization.

This morning I dug out a pdf I have of Andrew Zimbalist's dissection of Mr Huizenga's claim that his 1997 team lost money. What's striking, in 20/20 hindsight, is that the justification for the fire-sale was rooted in the unsuitability of the ballpark. (The 2005/6 sell-offs were also justified as part of a need to match payroll to revenue.) Mr Huizenga wanted a retractable-roofed ballpark, and wanted local government to pay for the lion's share.

Then he sold the team to Mr Henry, who put in a lot of work exploring potential sites, and all the evidence from contemporary news articles is that the majority view of the fans was for a ballpark in Broward County. But Broward's local leaders weren't interested. (There was something of a stand-off as both sides wanted to know what the other was going to offer before they owned up to what they would offer.)

In the end, Mr Loria got the ballpark of Mr Huizenga's dreams, on the Orange Bowl site. This is, I believe, the furthest south of any location ever seriously discussed. Some of those quoted in the articles from Mr Henry's time were very hostile to the idea of driving into downtown Miami. Who knows if they are making the trip nowadays?

Now, is that 'bad-faith ownership'? Or did circumstances out of the control of anyone in particular simply leave a core part of the Marlins' fanbase disappointed?
   104. fra paolo Posted: December 16, 2017 at 11:46 AM (#5593695)
Except the part where they let their best player and closer leave as free agents, traded their best hitter for an unknown who ended up being a huge bust, and didn't add any significant talent.

And yet attendance went up.
   105. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 16, 2017 at 01:39 PM (#5593724)
And yet attendance went up.

Well sure. The had won the World Series. But, one would have hoped for a bigger bounce.

The question is whether it is worth spending $1.2 billion to find out.

No. They wildly overpaid for the team. That's why they're in another fire sale.

   106. fra paolo Posted: December 16, 2017 at 01:50 PM (#5593730)
But, one would have hoped for a bigger bounce.

It is already the biggest relative bounce for a World Series winner between 1993 and 2014, by a few tenths of a percent over the 2002 Angels.

In fact, the 2004 Marlins more or less doubled their 2002 attendance. Most owners would get a lot of praise for doing that.

The more I think about it, the more I find the 2002 attendance the most problematic. Why did it fall so low that season?

Putting the Marlins on the Contraction Candidate List in 2001 probably didn't help.
   107. Sunday silence Posted: December 16, 2017 at 03:20 PM (#5593780)
Is it possible that some of these attendance figures for first year stadiums were fudged? Not just Miami's but several of those quoted in the thread.

One of the main pts. that Mr Paolo has been making is that despite the cries that fans wont come out if they see owner ship is tanking, the fans did come out in precisely those sell off years. Which as he said earlier, it calls into question those arguments.

For teams like KCR and PIT the basic model seems to be that attendance will jump when a long term bad team suddenly makes it big. Just to look at the PIT (KCR already been noted):

PIT had a good team in '69 possibly as good (by pythag.) as '71 and yet they were like 10th (in NL) in attendance (they are near the bottom almost the whole decade). They got a small bump in '70 their first post season in 43 years, and finally bumped up to 5th attend. in the champ. season in '71 stayed there in '72 and then promptly drifted downward again. All the way back to 10th in 1979 another champ season! And the '74 and '75 teams went to the playoffs (while drifting down in atend rankings) and the '78 team had a near miracle comeback these were actually very competitive and very interesting team.

Based on what Ive read here about KCR and MIA it seems basically you can get attendance to spike when you climb all the way to the top or at least come close to a world series. But after that it is a case of familiarity breeds contempt, at least for these sorts of small/mid market teams. PIT had a hugely competitive team for over a decade in the 70s and yet attendance peaked and then promptly went south, the novelty wore off

I think this contradicts the idea that putting a long term, very competitive team out there will solve attendance woes. It might in a larger market like BOS. In fact, I havent studied their numbers but I would guess thats what happened there. Possibly also NYY but geez that's NY, a night game in Yankee stadium sounds like a really fun night in the big apple because usually you're already in the city. Not sure if the location of Shea or whatever its called has some effect on attendance What about LAD? did long term success help them? or did they always have a built in huge fan base?

That's about the best that I can figure from the limited numbers we have to work with here. I doubt any of us can really provide much insight into how attendance works. Or if you do, you'd really need to post something in the way of comparisons and objective analysis instead of hand waving which is much of what Ive been reading.

I just not sure about this long term success=good attendance. I get that one world series DOES NOT equal good attendance, but what I have seen is it seems to spike it.

Seriously question these first year attendance numbers.
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