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Friday, November 10, 2017

Detroit News: Gardenhire’s Unenviable Situation

Chance will play a big role for as long as the roots are not severed, all is well.

So where does that leave manager Ron Gardenhire and his newly-assembled staff? Is he going to play the role of former Astros manager Bo Porter? The guy who takes all the requisite lumps and losses, and then gets brushed aside when the club is ready to compete?

Guaranteed that is not how he views it. He said as much at his introductory press conference.

 

Gerald Bostock Posted: November 10, 2017 at 11:24 AM | 16 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: rebuilding, tigers

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   1. Tim D Posted: November 10, 2017 at 03:55 PM (#5574251)
This team is going to be bad, bad, bad.
   2. Tin Angel Posted: November 12, 2017 at 03:55 PM (#5574730)
He will try to keep the clubhouse of veterans together while they lose until they begin to develop young talent in 2-3 years at which point he will be replaced.
   3. RMc Has Bizarre Ideas to Fix Baseball Posted: November 12, 2017 at 04:39 PM (#5574740)
This team is going to be bad, bad, bad.

Maybe not late 90s/early 00s bad, but, yeah. (And there ain't gonna be a Sports Illustrated cover story saying, "Your 2020 World Series Champs".)
   4. Ray (CTL) Posted: November 12, 2017 at 05:23 PM (#5574750)
Recycling Gardenhire? Why?
   5. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 12, 2017 at 06:00 PM (#5574761)
Recycling Gardenhire? Why?

They probably think he's good at developing young players, and keeping a positive attitude in the clubhouse.

Also, why not?
   6. No longer interested in this website Posted: November 12, 2017 at 11:39 PM (#5574813)
I'll stick my neck out and say the Tigers are better than most people think they'll be in 2018. Probably 70 wins. I base that on what I think will be a nice rebound by a healthy Miguel Cabrera, and a favorable environment for young pitchers. The ballpark is nice for pitching, and the new pitching coach and new voices in the dugout might nudge Matt Boyd and Daniel Norris along in their development. Fullmer is very good and if he's healthy, that's three solid starters. Still, the team will struggle to score runs with that outfield and subpar offense from shortstop, catcher, and probably DH. They'll lose a lot of games 4-1. Then they'll lose a lot of games 8-3 because that bullpen will be pretty bad. But the competition in the AL Central is not great, and level of play overall in the league is down. I think we're seeing that with the high performances (many 100-win teams) and mediocre teams everywhere else. We've seen teams bounce from 90 losses to 80+ wins the next year. I also sense that Gardenhire will spark this team a little.

Having said that, I do not think the Detroit franchise will have a good prognosis for years 2+ of this "rebuild" because of their front office. Al Avila is in over his head. In addition, who knows if ownership even wants to improve the team much - they could be selling soon.
   7. No longer interested in this website Posted: November 12, 2017 at 11:43 PM (#5574815)
He will try to keep the clubhouse of veterans together while they lose until they begin to develop young talent in 2-3 years at which point he will be replaced.

What veterans do you speak of? Cabrera and Kinsler are still there, but otherwise this is a youngish, unproven team. McCann is in year 4 or so, so I guess he's a "veteran," but clearly not some grizzled vet who wants to hurry up and win.

The OF, third base, and much of the pitching staff will be younger guys, years away from free agency. Save for Castellanos, whom I bet they trade.

Victor Martinez MIGHT come back, but no guarantee on that. Even if he does, he's going to be a coach in waiting.
   8. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: November 13, 2017 at 12:13 AM (#5574820)
At what point in a player's career does the grizzling process begin?
   9. Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine Posted: November 13, 2017 at 12:25 AM (#5574822)
When he’s no longer good but getting paid too much to be released.
   10. Cooper Nielson Posted: November 13, 2017 at 01:36 AM (#5574826)
I'll stick my neck out and say the Tigers are better than most people think they'll be in 2018. Probably 70 wins.

I'll join you here. I think they'll be bad (last place), but probably not horrible (>100 losses). The reason for this is that their rotation has a possibility -- not a likelihood, but a possibility -- of being pretty decent.

Fulmer's arguably ace-caliber if healthy, Norris and Boyd have had their moments and could potentially be good with health/consistency, and Zimmermann was good up until his second month with the Tigers. There's a fair chance that he's "toast," but he's only 31 and could be a successful reclamation project. If one of the prospects emerges next year -- Franklin Perez seems closest; maybe Grayson Long -- or they sign a serviceable veteran placeholder, the rotation could be above average, and would at least keep most games in reach. (This could simply mean, as Wahoo Sam points out, that they'll lose a lot of 4-1 games.)

I don't think the offense will be good even with a rejuvenated Cabrera, and the bullpen is likely to be bad because... it's the Tigers. But the glass isn't empty.
   11. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: November 13, 2017 at 08:18 AM (#5574837)
I'll stick my neck out and say the Tigers are better than most people think they'll be in 2018. Probably 70 wins


I dunno, 70 wins is pretty bad in the era of parity that we appear to be currently experiencing. I agree that I'm not seeing a 60-win disaster in Detroit, especially if Cabrera can bounce back, but a 70-win season is pretty depressing, too.

It'll be interesting to see if the Tigers can rebuild from here. It's mostly a case of bad luck that they didn't win a WS at some point in the last 10 years, but at this point it's been 34 years since the last time they won one. I worry that they could be headed for a Curse of Kirk Gibson territory.
   12. PreservedFish Posted: November 13, 2017 at 08:27 AM (#5574840)
I had no idea that "grizzled" means "having or streaked with gray hair." I think I always had a feeling that it referred to someone that had been through so much #### as to acquire a haggard appearance and probably a bitter outlook.

Of course you have the grizzly bear causing confusion, but there's also "gristle," associated with tough old nasty meat. (Not like those tender young prospects.) "Grizzled" also sounds like a potato option at Waffle House, I'm imagining letting the cheese fry directly on the griddle and getting crispy and almost burnt and then chopped up with the shredded potato.
   13. Gerald Bostock Posted: November 13, 2017 at 10:11 AM (#5574907)
a nice rebound by a healthy Miguel Cabrera

especially if Cabrera can bounce back

I know I'm on record from earlier this year believing in the Bounce-Back Fairy, but having played around with some projections I'm more tempered in believing what could be possible.

I'm very confident that Cabrera will have a good chance of recovering some of his level of performance next season. I don't see it as unreasonable to expect a .300 BA for when he plays.

The $30 million question is 'How much will he play?'. The projections I've generated suggest 'not all that much'.

That's very worrying. He's not going to generate enough value if he doesn't play at least 130-140 games.

What seems to be hurting him in the projections is not his 2017 season, but his 2015 one. It sticks out from the 2014-16 set as much as 2016 sticks out from the 2015-17 set. For various reasons, there is still a basis to think the 'doom and gloom' merchants who hold 2015 and 2017 are the new normal are wrong; but Tigers fans had better hold their breath until they see which Miguel Cabrera they get next season.
   14. Hysterical & Useless Posted: November 13, 2017 at 10:20 AM (#5574918)
"grizzled" means "having or streaked with gray hair." I think I always had a feeling that it referred to someone that had been through so much #### as to acquire a haggard appearance and probably a bitter outlook.


Well of course you've got a bitter outlook when you all the time have to see that gray ####### hair in the mirror.
   15. stig-tossled,hornswoggled gef the talking mongoose Posted: November 13, 2017 at 11:41 AM (#5575018)

Well of course you've got a bitter outlook when you all the time have to see that gray ####### hair in the mirror.


I'd think seeing no ####### hair in the mirror would be much worse.
   16. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: November 13, 2017 at 11:54 AM (#5575033)
I had no idea that "grizzled" means "having or streaked with gray hair."

As in, "His hair is all grizzle, fo' shizzle?"

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