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Monday, July 30, 2018

Detroit Tigers’ Jack Morris’ Hall of Fame speech

It must be done.

“I believe in the human heart and human spirit, and no analytics can define them.”

Lest we forget Posted: July 30, 2018 at 08:22 AM | 155 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: analytics, hall of fame, jack morris

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   1. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: July 30, 2018 at 09:28 AM (#5717880)
I didn't see it but reading the speech it comes across as very nice and heartfelt.
   2. Rally Posted: July 30, 2018 at 09:41 AM (#5717884)
If you tuned in for Vlad Guerrero's speech and blinked, you probably missed it.
   3. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: July 30, 2018 at 09:47 AM (#5717889)
Morris gave a touching and heartfelt speech. "I will speak for you, Father. I speak for all mediocrities in the world. I am their champion. I am their patron saint."
   4. Ziggy's screen name Posted: July 30, 2018 at 11:17 AM (#5717931)
For all those years, it was Lou and Tram. Lou, it was an honor and pleasure to have played alongside you all those years. And my hope is some day you’ll be up here as well.


From Trammell's speech.
   5. Rally Posted: July 30, 2018 at 11:40 AM (#5717954)
As Alan mentioned, he and Lou debuted the same day and got their first big league hits. They also had their last big league hits off the same pitcher, Mike Fetters. I had to look that one up to see the details.

It happened in different years as Lou retired after 1995 while Tram stuck around for one more year. On 9-13-95 Whitaker faced Fetters down by a run in the bottom 9th with 2 on base. He hit a walk off homer. He played more games down the stretch, but that was his last hit.

Next year on 9-29-96 the Brewers take a one run lead in the top 10th and give the ball to Fetters to close. With one out and a runner on, Trammell hits a single. Too bad he didn't do what Lou did because the next batter hits into a double play.
   6. DanG Posted: July 30, 2018 at 01:24 PM (#5718001)
Morris isn't quite the worst starting pitcher in the Hall of Fame. However, with everything that's been learned in the past 30 years regarding player valuation, there's no longer any excuse for a mistake of this magnitude.

The bottom five SP in the HOF:

Player        WAAERA+  ERA  WAR   W   L
Catfish Hunter 5.9  104 3.26 36.6 224 166
Rube Marquard  9.1  103 3.08 34.4 201 177
Herb Pennock   9.7  106 3.60 43.9 241 162
Jack Morris    9.7  105 3.90 44.0 254 186
Jesse Haines  10.3  109 3.64 35.6 210 158 
   7. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: July 30, 2018 at 01:47 PM (#5718011)
Growing up in Michigan in the 90s, even as a White Sox fan it was impossible not to like and respect those Tigers teams and Lou, Jack and Trammel. Lou deserves to be in but his odds aren't good, right?
   8. SoSH U at work Posted: July 30, 2018 at 01:49 PM (#5718013)
Lou deserves to be in but his odds aren't good, right?


I think his odds are quite good now. There was quite a bit of talk after the nominating committee met that they missed the boat on failing to put him on the ballot, and Tram's election will lead to a greater re-evaluation of his case.
   9. Ziggy's screen name Posted: July 30, 2018 at 02:13 PM (#5718024)
I don't really have any idea how good his odds are, but Trammell getting elected is probably the best thing that could have possibly happened for him. I always thought of the two as inseparable, and Trammell said the same thing in his acceptance speech.
   10. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 30, 2018 at 02:14 PM (#5718025)
Lou deserves to be in but his odds aren't good, right?

Whitaker had 75.1 Career WAR to Trammell's 70.7. While the HoF may not correct every such discrepancy, treating two middle infielders playing in the same era, and for the same team, so differently is quite the head scratcher. Trammell's selection highlights the injustice toward Whitaker and makes it more likely to eventually be corrected.
   11. dlf Posted: July 30, 2018 at 02:40 PM (#5718040)
I would vote for Whitaker too, but just listing career WAR without pointing out the significant advantage Trammell has in peak / prime years feels off. Lou had two years of 6+ WAR, peaking at 6.8, Alan had six years over 6.0 including one over 8. Trammell should have been the MVP in 1987 and could have been in 1984, Whitaker never reached those heights.
   12. Zonk is a Doppleclapper Posted: July 30, 2018 at 02:54 PM (#5718049)
I think what really hurts Whitaker is that he had rather enormous platoon splits - and Sparky certainly timed his off-days against LHP.... I don't think he was exactly platooned in the first 5-6-7 years, but he generally was for the 2nd half of it.

I'm not saying he shouldn't be in because of that... I'm just saying that I think a lot of voters/determiners have it in their mind that Lou was a platoon player and platoon players don't get to be hall of famers.
   13. Rally Posted: July 30, 2018 at 02:58 PM (#5718052)
I thought the difference was that while Lou was more consistent, Trammell also reached lows that Whitaker never did. But turns out Trammell was very consistent too, from age 22-33 he never had a year worse than 3.0 WAR. He was hurt most of his age 34 season, and only had one good year after that. Whitaker on the other hand was above average every season except for his 11 game debut in 1977.

Through age 33 Trammell had 66 WAR, Lou had 56. Trammell added one more good year while Whitaker had 5 (though mostly as a platoon player). I can understand that Trammell was better, OK that he goes in first, but they both belong.

Trammell's selection highlights the injustice toward Whitaker and makes it more likely to eventually be corrected.


Whitaker doing the intro for Trammell, and Alan's words on stage probably did a lot of good in making people realize that Whitaker should get his own time on stage.
   14. Walt Davis Posted: July 30, 2018 at 06:50 PM (#5718160)
VCs are difficult to predict except in cases (like Morris) where the guy just barely misses ... and even then it seemed to take them a while with Bunning. To wit, Ted Simmons nearly made it this year and if Simmons can nearly make it, any HoF snub can nearly make it. It seems all it really takes is a champion on the committee.

I'm guilty of it as well but Whitaker's platooning is over-stated. Sure, his days off were against LHP ... which is true of most LHB. For his career, Whitaker's %PA vs LHP was about 27%. Morgan's was 32% and Thome's was 28%. Compare those with a true (but possibly most extreme) platoon player like Matt Stairs at about 17%.

Even if we take Lou as a 1-WAR player vs LHP (say replacement bat but still good defense and running) ... that would mean about 70 of his 75 WAR came against RHP. Dock him 10% of his PAs vs RHP to bring him to about 30% vs LHP overall and he's still at about 65 WAR. Then we have to put back those PAs to get the career length again and we're probably up to 68-69. (The other way to do it is to just add LHP PAs which, unless he was actually below-replacement, will just add or maintain WAR while slightly dropping WAA.)

So the platoon argument really isn't a negative. If he plays more, the WAR most likely goes up while the WAA comes down a bit. 75-80 WAR, 37 WAA still easily beats Biggio's 65/29 (or his 67/34 if you want to ignore the last couple of seasons). Alternatively I suppose you could argue we should discount his last few years a bit due to platooning ... but even most HoFers reduce their playing time in their late 30s and it seems odd to penalize him for being used in a more efficient way than most late-career guys. Anyway, whack him 50% of his last 6 years and he's still even with Biggio.

If WAR (or similar) is a major criterion in your HoF evaluation, there's no way to work the numbers such that Whitaker doesn't qualify (assuming you think Biggio, Alomar, etc. are qualified).
   15. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: July 30, 2018 at 08:30 PM (#5718208)
Redneck, #3:
Morris gave a touching and heartfelt speech. "I will speak for you, Father. I speak for all mediocrities in the world. I am their champion. I am their patron saint."


That richly deserves this.
   16. The Honorable Ardo Posted: July 30, 2018 at 08:53 PM (#5718219)
Hunter, Pennock, Marquard, etc., all received exceptional offensive and defensive support, as did Morris. Older voters are internalizing the effects on a season basis (cf. recent Cy Young voting), but not on a career basis.

I think the inability of so many contemporary starters to get through 5 or 6 innings played a big role in Morris's induction. Most complete games, debut 1970 or later:

1. Bert Blyleven, 242
2. Jack Morris, 175
3. Frank Tanana, 143
4. Dennis Martinez, 122
5. Roger Clemens, 118
6. Fernando!, 113
7. Greg Maddux, 109
8. Charlie Hough, 107
T9: Dennis Leonard & Dave Stieb, 103

....

Active: Bartolo Colon & CC Sabathia, 38
   17. -- Posted: July 30, 2018 at 08:54 PM (#5718220)
“I believe in the human heart and human spirit, and no analytics can define them.”


He might have done well to throw in the word "soul" somewhere to complete the thought. But well-played by the newest Hall of Famer nonetheless.
   18. SoSH U at work Posted: July 30, 2018 at 09:02 PM (#5718222)

And if you make that 75 or later, Jack really stands out in the category.

1. Jack Morris, 175
2. Dennis Martinez, 122
3. Roger Clemens, 118
4. Fernando!, 113
5. Maddus, 109
6. Dave Stieb, 103
7. Mike Flanagan, 101
T8. Unit, Eckersley 100
10. Ron Guidry, 95



   19. puck Posted: July 30, 2018 at 09:52 PM (#5718249)
If Thomas Magnum was such a big Tigers fan, why didn't he recognize Lou Whitaker and Alan Trammel in the bar?

(Why are they remaking Magnum P.I.? I guess it worked for Hawaii 5-0. Name, catchy theme song, Hawaii, profit!)
   20. cardsfanboy Posted: July 31, 2018 at 12:04 AM (#5718320)
Not to defend Morris, but he is a bit damaged by war and the changing usage pattern of starters that was happening during his career, he was to an extent being compared to starters who were bailing out of games in the 7th inning to allow higher quality relievers to come in, and then is also being compared to them, while he was doing the job of finishing games that almost nobody else in his era was doing.

I don't think Morris is a hofer, but I could almost see a future analytical argument that is going to end up handing him another 5-10 war over his career because of how much better he was at completing games in comparison to his other contemporaries in a year in, year out type of thing. (That analysis will also probably end up giving Blyleven another 5 or so war also though)

   21. DanG Posted: July 31, 2018 at 12:23 AM (#5718325)
Pitchers debuting 1972+ who completed at least one-quarter of their starts, minimum 2000 IP

Player               CG  GS   IP   From  To
Jack Morris         175 527 3824.0 1977 1994
Steve Rogers        129 393 2837.2 1973 1985
Fernando Valenzuela 113 424 2930.0 1980 1997
Dave Stieb          103 412 2895.1 1979 1998
Dennis Leonard      103 302 2187.0 1974 1986
Mike Flanagan       101 404 2770.0 1975 1992
Dennis Eckersley    100 361 3285.2 1975 1998
Ron Guidry           95 323 2392.0 1975 1988
Scott McGregor       83 309 2140.2 1976 1988
Dave Goltz           83 264 2039.2 1972 1983 
   22. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: July 31, 2018 at 05:27 AM (#5718334)
Redneck, #3:
Morris gave a touching and heartfelt speech. "I will speak for you, Father. I speak for all mediocrities in the world. I am their champion. I am their patron saint."

That richly deserves this.


That was the cherry on top :)
   23. DJS, the Digital Dandy Posted: July 31, 2018 at 08:40 AM (#5718354)
“The only time I talk to a woman when I’m naked is when she’s on top of me or I’m on top of her.”

- Jack Morris to Jennifer Frey, while wearing clothing.
   24. Rally Posted: July 31, 2018 at 08:55 AM (#5718358)
I'm guilty of it as well but Whitaker's platooning is over-stated. Sure, his days off were against LHP ... which is true of most LHB. For his career, Whitaker's %PA vs LHP was about 27%. Morgan's was 32% and Thome's was 28%. Compare those with a true (but possibly most extreme) platoon player like Matt Stairs at about 17%.


Whitaker was an everyday player when he first came up and through his prime age seasons. Usually more than 30% each year, though in 1981 42% of his PA were against lefties - must have been a lot of LHP starting in the AL East that year. He was still at 37% in 1987 and 29% in 1989. Down to 20% in 1990-91 - that's when Tony Phillips joined the team and gave them a top tier alternative at the position. Then falling from 15% in 1992 down to 10% in his final year.

   25. SoSH U at work Posted: July 31, 2018 at 09:52 AM (#5718380)
Usually more than 30% each year, though in 1981 42% of his PA were against lefties - must have been a lot of LHP starting in the AL East that year.


The AL. Lou played almost his entire career in the balanced schedule era.
   26. Rally Posted: July 31, 2018 at 10:02 AM (#5718382)
The AL that year had 33% of PA against LHP. Tigers faced a ton though, Trammell was at 46%.
   27. Ziggy's screen name Posted: July 31, 2018 at 10:12 AM (#5718387)
I don't see why we should care that he didn't play all that much against LHP. He produced a lot of value. Sure, maybe others could have produced more if they had been used like Lou was, but they weren't and so they didn't.

And heck, he's already being penalized for it anyway. If he'd been playing everyday he'd have had more playing time and hence higher counting numbers. (Lower rate numbers too, but it's not like being platooned is an unmitigated good.)
   28. DavidFoss Posted: July 31, 2018 at 11:04 AM (#5718416)
And heck, he's already being penalized for it anyway. If he'd been playing everyday he'd have had more playing time and hence higher counting numbers. (Lower rate numbers too, but it's not like being platooned is an unmitigated good.)

It's sort of a freebie bonus for a LHB infielder-catcher that needs to rest from time to time. Might as well rest against the LHP's. The back-ups at these positions are predominately RHB's so it is better for the backup to be hitting against the LHP's anyways.

This comes up all the time when the catcher is a LHB because even healthy young catchers can't play every day.
   29. SoSH U at work Posted: July 31, 2018 at 11:11 AM (#5718422)
“The only time I talk to a woman when I’m naked is when she’s on top of me or I’m on top of her.”

- Jack Morris to Jennifer Frey, while wearing clothing.


There really is a strong masochistic trait running through baseball writers. The two most head-scratching Hall campaigns in the last 20 years involved players that generally treated the writers like fecal matter stuck to the bottom of a shoe.
   30. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: July 31, 2018 at 01:18 PM (#5718514)
I don't see why we should care that he didn't play all that much against LHP. He produced a lot of value. Sure, maybe others could have produced more if they had been used like Lou was, but they weren't and so they didn't.

The point is he didn't actually produce the value you imagine he did. Real-life replacement level is higher for a platoon player because it's easier to find someone who can do part of a job rather than the whole thing, which WAR as a blunt instrument can't account for.
   31. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: July 31, 2018 at 01:22 PM (#5718521)
There really is a strong masochistic trait running through baseball writers. The two most head-scratching Hall campaigns in the last 20 years involved players that generally treated the writers like fecal matter stuck to the bottom of a shoe.


It's worth noting that Morris wasn't actually elected by the writers.
   32. SoSH U at work Posted: July 31, 2018 at 01:28 PM (#5718523)
It's worth noting that Morris wasn't actually elected by the writers.


That's why I said campaigns, not BBWAA elections. Morris reached the high 60s with the writers, enabling his quick trip through the Vets Committee.
   33. QLE Posted: July 31, 2018 at 01:30 PM (#5718525)
If Thomas Magnum was such a big Tigers fan, why didn't he recognize Lou Whitaker and Alan Trammel in the bar?


It could be that he didn't fully process their presence because he wasn't expecting them there- I've had similar things happen to me before, and, in my case, with people I had actually dealt with somewhat regularly.
   34. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: July 31, 2018 at 01:33 PM (#5718532)
If Thomas Magnum was such a big Tigers fan, why didn't he recognize Lou Whitaker and Alan Trammel in the bar?
And Trammell was on the left and Whitaker on the right, so they were in their proper places.
   35. Rally Posted: July 31, 2018 at 01:36 PM (#5718533)
The point is he didn't actually produce the value you imagine he did. Real-life replacement level is higher for a platoon player because it's easier to find someone who can do part of a job rather than the whole thing, which WAR as a blunt instrument can't account for.


I'm a bit confused on the direction here. You think Whitaker's value is less than his WAR number? In any case, we are talking about the last 5 years of his career, he was an everyday player from his rookie year through his prime. Compare him to a Larry Walker type, who misses 40 games a year but you can't control who the opponent pitcher is when he's out. So your backup is a replacement level player who has to play against righties or lefties. For Whitaker, you can replace him with a guy who is not a good overall player but can hit lefties - should be easier to find than a guy who hits all pitchers.

So if Lou/Larry are equal players on a per game basis, 120 games of Lou + 40 games of a lefty killer should beat 120 of Larry and 40 of a generic outfield replacement, right?

But we are probably talking fractions of wins here, not the kind of thing that is going to materially change anyone's ranking.
   36. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: July 31, 2018 at 01:42 PM (#5718536)
I think the inability of so many contemporary starters to get through 5 or 6 innings played a big role in Morris's induction.


Not in the least. Jack Morris was pushed over the top and into the HOF as a direct #### you to the people who finally got Bert Blyleven elected last year.
   37. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: July 31, 2018 at 01:45 PM (#5718539)
Jack Morris was pushed over the top and into the HOF as a direct #### you to the people who finally got Bert Blyleven elected last year.
Um...that was 7 years ago.
   38. Batman Posted: July 31, 2018 at 01:47 PM (#5718544)
One dog year ago.
   39. SoSH U at work Posted: July 31, 2018 at 01:51 PM (#5718547)
Not in the least. Jack Morris was pushed over the top and into the HOF as a direct #### you to the people who finally got Bert Blyleven elected last year.


No it wasn't.
   40. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: July 31, 2018 at 02:23 PM (#5718573)
One dog year ago.

Dog years work the other way around. A dog year ago is like the start of June.
   41. Rally Posted: July 31, 2018 at 02:27 PM (#5718574)
Not in the least. Jack Morris was pushed over the top and into the HOF as a direct #### you to the people who finally got Bert Blyleven elected last year.


We're all just guessing on the motivations of the vet committee voters. But this does not seem right to me. They voted for Jack because they thought he was deserving. And they followed past precedent of voting in the guys who came closest in the BBWAA ballot.

If the really want to deliver a "direct #### you" to the stat geeks then they would have voted in Morris alone and kept Trammell out.

"I can't stand these stat geeks who have taken over the sport. WAR, barrels, spin rate, exit velocity. When will it end? Why can't we go back to the days when pitcher wins were all that mattered?"

"I know, let's vote Jack Morris into the HOF. The geeks can't stand him! Their new fangled stats don't like him but damn it, Jack knew how to win ballgames! That will show them!"

"Yeah, I can get behind that. Just to piss off these geeks, we will elect Morris and Trammell. That'll show 'em."

"D'oh!"
   42. QLE Posted: July 31, 2018 at 02:33 PM (#5718580)
We're all just guessing on the motivations of the vet committee voters. But this does not seem right to me. They voted for Jack because they thought he was deserving. And they followed past precedent of voting in the guys who came closest in the BBWAA ballot.

If the really want to deliver a "direct #### you" to the stat geeks then they would have voted in Morris alone and kept Trammell out.


For that matter, they also came within one vote of electing Ted Simmons, statistical hero- and, importantly, someone who was one-and-done with the BBWAA.
   43. Rally Posted: July 31, 2018 at 02:47 PM (#5718590)
The ultimate FU to the stat geeks would have been to vote in Morris and Steve Garvey.
   44. Dennis Eclairskey, closer Posted: July 31, 2018 at 03:14 PM (#5718599)
So if Lou/Larry are equal players on a per game basis, 120 games of Lou + 40 games of a lefty killer should beat 120 of Larry and 40 of a generic outfield replacement, right?

I’m a Larry Walker HOF supporter but that’s the one thing that always kept me from being as passionate about his case was all those missed games and replacement level players or whomever had to fill in for him. Nevertheless, he was so good at everything that, he’s still a HOFer in my book
   45. Ithaca2323 Posted: July 31, 2018 at 03:47 PM (#5718621)
I think it can be simultaneously true that Jack Morris had support from people who felt that the stathead crowd unfairly maligned his career, and that those people also felt Alan Trammell was worthy, for reasons perhaps unrelated to his WAR.
   46. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: July 31, 2018 at 04:19 PM (#5718648)
Has there ever been a study of which teams had non-HOF players with the most career WAR? Before Morris and Trammell's election, the 1980s Tigers had to be contenders (non-steroid division), with them, Whitaker, Lemon, Darrell Evans, and then Gibson and Parrish a couple notches below them.

Oh - and this does also have something to do with Frank Tanana.
   47. Rally Posted: July 31, 2018 at 04:28 PM (#5718655)
Don't recall seeing anything like that but it's the sort of thing that is a snapshot in time. The 1999 Yankees have zero HOFers, with players like Posada, Jeter, Bernie, Straw, O'Neill, Chili, Mo, Pettitte, Cone, and Clemens.

They'll have one this time next year and 2 the year after.
   48. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: July 31, 2018 at 04:42 PM (#5718665)
Don't recall seeing anything like that but it's the sort of thing that is a snapshot in time. The 1999 Yankees have zero HOFers, with players like Posada, Jeter, Bernie, Straw, O'Neill, Chili, Mo, Pettitte, Cone, and Clemens.

They'll have one this time next year and 2 the year after.
Fair point, but what about if you go back far enough where all the players' BBWAA windows have closed? Of course VC choices would disrupt the lists as they did this year, but you'd at least eliminate the teams that were obviously going to get dropped in a year or two.
   49. BDC Posted: July 31, 2018 at 05:01 PM (#5718679)
Has there ever been a study of which teams had non-HOF players with the most career WAR? Before Morris and Trammell's election, the 1980s Tigers had to be contenders


I would imagine the 1988 Mets would be high on the list. They were a 100-win team with a lot of long-career stars but only one HOFer (Gary Carter), and … I dunno, is anyone else on that team even close to HOF consideration? I think that David Cone and Keith Hernandez are in the HOM, but they don't seem to have a lot of grass-roots HOF/VC-campaign support.

Anyway, the prominent names and career WAR totals. Hoping I didn't forget anybody:

Cone 62
Hernandez 60
Gooden 53
Dykstra 43
Strawberry 42
Fernandez 33
McReynolds 30
Ojeda 24
HoJo 22
Mookie 22
Aguilera 22
Magadan 21
Darling 20
Jefferies 20
Mazzilli 16
Myers 15
Backman 13
McDowell 10
Leach 10

When you consider that 10 WAR is a good career and 20 WAR a hell of a career (by the standards of pro ballplayers generally, not of the Hall of Fame, of course), that's impressive.






   50. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: July 31, 2018 at 05:10 PM (#5718683)
Interesting. Another corollary of the original question would be which teams' top, say, 5 non-HOF players had the most career WAR. That would get at teams that have an unusual concentration of should-be or borderline HOFers. That's maybe more interesting than having bench players who had had or went on to productive careers.
   51. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: July 31, 2018 at 05:16 PM (#5718687)
Some of the mid-'70s Dodgers teams would also probably qualify - of course Garvey/Lopes/Russell/Cey on the infield, and Dusty Baker, Rick Monday, Reggie Smith and Jim Wynn were there at various points. Plus guys like Yeager, Ferguson, Willie Crawford, Manny Mota, Lee Lacy. Pitching-wise, you have Tommy John, Messersmith, Hough, Rhoden, Hooton, Al Downing, Geoff Zahn. It would just depend on which players were on the team in a given year.
   52. Morty Causa Posted: July 31, 2018 at 09:19 PM (#5718799)
I was thinking of the 77-78 Dodgers The Yankees of around the same time, say 76-78, also had players with lots of value that haven't made it into the HOF.
   53. Fiore Gino Posted: July 31, 2018 at 11:10 PM (#5718854)
Has there ever been a study of which teams had non-HOF players with the most career WAR? Before Morris and Trammell's election, the 1980s Tigers had to be contenders (non-steroid division), with them, Whitaker, Lemon, Darrell Evans, and then Gibson and Parrish a couple notches below them.

During the HOF induction coverage on the MLB Network, Whitaker did Trammell's intro, I believe Lance Parrish did Morris' intro, & I'm pretty sure I saw Darrell Evans in the crowd
   54. cardsfanboy Posted: July 31, 2018 at 11:59 PM (#5718870)
I would imagine the 1988 Mets would be high on the list. They were a 100-win team with a lot of long-career stars but only one HOFer (Gary Carter), and … I dunno, is anyone else on that team even close to HOF consideration? I think that David Cone and Keith Hernandez are in the HOM, but they don't seem to have a lot of grass-roots HOF/VC-campaign support.



Agree with most people here, those Mets teams and especially those late 70's Dodgers team both look like good choices, but of course as always I had to pull up a Cardinal team 2004 Cardinals will probably only have one hofer on it (Pujols) although it's possible a few more might eventually make it in(Molina/Walker/Rolen) but based upon history and votes, my betting money would be on Molina before the other four.


But you are looking at
Pujols(100),
Walker (72.7),
Rolen(70.2),
Edmonds(60.4),
Reggie Sanders(39.8),
Molina(38.4),
Lankford(38.2),
Chris Carpenter(35.2),
Haren(32.9),
Renteria(32.3),
Woody Williams(27.7),
Matt Morris(18.4),
Eldred(16.3),
Suppan(15.7),
Isringhausen(12.3),
Kline(9.9),
(Ankiel only 8.9)

Obviously this is a cheat because most around here would probably put Rolen, Walker, and Edmonds in.
   55. Walt Davis Posted: August 01, 2018 at 04:18 AM (#5718899)
I'm a bit confused on the direction here. You think Whitaker's value is less than his WAR number?

The original poster hasn't replied yet so I'll give it a go. I think there are two prongs here. First, yes, by platooning Whitaker's WAR is (potentially) higher. It depends on whether he (would have) been at least replacement level against (more) LHP. In a current small sample extreme, basically all of Kyle Schwarber's value comes against RHP, give him more PT and (if he maintains that terrible performance vs LHP), his WAR goes down. A player at replacement level would see his WAR stay the same but his WAA go down. In fact, if he's not at least average against LHP, his WAA will go down if he plays against them even if the WAR is going up.

The second argument is that the HoF is (should be, is in my dreams whatever) about greatness not value. They coincide the vast majority of the time but if Whitaker had been primarily a platoon player, it would be easy to say he was not a "great" player because he was really only 3/4 of a player. Now we've demonstrated that's not a fair description of Whitaker but in theory it could happen.

Anyway, I'm sure you can make a quick calculation of a WAR/WAA platoon split for a guy like Thome who absolutely destroyed RHP but was pretty blah against LHP (divide his defense, etc. up proportionally). I suspect he was above-replacement against RHP but certainly not average. Thome's career splits: 292/426/608 (316 ISO!) vs 238/340/427. That first set gives Bonds career a run for his money, the second set is substantially worse than Adam LaRoche's career stats (260/336/462, 14 WAR, -5 WAA). Thome's WAR and especially his WAA were done no favors by PA vs LHP.

That has always been one of the issues with WAA. A platoon guy gets his 400-450 PA in a favorable setting and posts, say, 1.7 WAR and 0.2 WAA. The full-time guy posts 2 WAR and 0 WAA. Which one do you want on your team, the one with more WAA or more WAR? Does this still pop up in projections too or do they adjust for platoon splits when doing "full season" projections?

Not that it would ever happen in real life but I used to do a H/R platoon with Rockies players in a saber-y fantasy league ages ago (it allowed daily lineup changes). Neifi was my starting SS whenever the Rox were at home. It was a small, universal league so it was always easy to find an average SS to platoon with him. Given park effects didn't come into play, I got the full use of Neifi's 840 home OPS (I think it was 2000) -- roughly Miguel Tejada. Even with the platoon, I still couldn't match ARod, Jeter, Nomar and (quite) Tejada but I probably had the 5th best SS with a late draft pick and a waiver wire claim. I suppose that suggest guys like Santo, Klein, Boggs interesting candidates for a WAR H/R split.

Not that I've gone looking but Thome's split is the most extreme of any great hitter that I've noticed.
   56. Rally Posted: August 01, 2018 at 08:30 AM (#5718916)
That has always been one of the issues with WAA. A platoon guy gets his 400-450 PA in a favorable setting and posts, say, 1.7 WAR and 0.2 WAA. The full-time guy posts 2 WAR and 0 WAA. Which one do you want on your team, the one with more WAA or more WAR?


Good question. I don't think there's a single correct answer to this. Depends on what alternatives you have, do you have a RH hitting platoon mate who can give you more than 0.3 WAR in his 200-250 PA? What is the opportunity cost of that roster spot?
   57. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: August 01, 2018 at 11:05 AM (#5718994)
Agree with most people here, those Mets teams and especially those late 70's Dodgers team both look like good choices, but of course as always I had to pull up a Cardinal team 2004 Cardinals will probably only have one hofer on it (Pujols) although it's possible a few more might eventually make it in(Molina/Walker/Rolen) but based upon history and votes, my betting money would be on Molina before the other four.
Yeah, the '04 Cards is a good pick. I also thought of the mid-'70s Oakland teams - Tenace, Rudi, Bando, Campaneris, Blue, Holtzman, Bill North, even Jim Perry for a year - but they're a notch below.
   58. McCoy Posted: August 01, 2018 at 11:20 AM (#5719005)
2005 White Sox.

They had Frank Thomas but Frank only played in 34 games and didn't play in the playoffs. Buehrle and Konerko are the only other guys who will even be talked about come voting time but neither will get in.
   59. McCoy Posted: August 01, 2018 at 11:23 AM (#5719008)
The 2010 Giants might have none. Best shot is Buster Posey and it looks like Madison Bumgarner has got himself sidetracked the last couple of years.
   60. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: August 01, 2018 at 11:26 AM (#5719014)
Yeah, but in terms of WAR totals for the non-HOF players, the 2010 Giants are going to be way behind.
   61. McCoy Posted: August 01, 2018 at 11:29 AM (#5719018)
Ah, missed that part.
   62. RMc Has Bizarre Ideas to Fix Baseball Posted: August 01, 2018 at 11:40 AM (#5719032)
Whitaker's not in because he's black. Yeah. I went there.

Also, he was quiet, shy, played for Detroit and had a bit of a reputation as an airhead. But the "being black" thing didn't exactly help.
   63. Morty Causa Posted: August 01, 2018 at 02:54 PM (#5719191)
There are a few black players in, even some who don't deserve to be. Trammel was a) a shortstop and b) seen as a team leader.

It needs to be noted that one has to go through some mental contortions to make it seem that Morris deserves selection to the HOF. His WAR accumulation is awful Bert Blyleven has twice Morris's WAR and it took him almost forever. It should have taken Morris forever and a day.
   64. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: August 01, 2018 at 03:07 PM (#5719200)
It needs to be noted that one has to go through some mental contortions to make it seem that Morris deserves selection to the HOF.
I think it has been noted.
   65. BDC Posted: August 01, 2018 at 03:34 PM (#5719223)
Obviously this is a cheat because most around here would probably put Rolen, Walker, and Edmonds in


It's still an impressive roster of guys who would be outer-circle HOFers if they were in. The Cardinals kept up the tradition in the early 2010s with Wainwright, Holliday, Berkman: more HOVG types than deserving HOFers, but very fine careers.

The Rangers have been good twice in their existence, late '90s and early '10s, with few likely HOFers to show for it (Pudge in the '90s is already in; Beltre in the '10s). They too had some very strong non-HOFers (Clark, Gonzalez, Greer, Palmeiro, Wetteland; Hamilton, Kinsler, Andrus, Nelson Cruz) – but nothing close to the '04 Cardinals or some of those Mets and Dodgers squads.
   66. Morty Causa Posted: August 01, 2018 at 03:37 PM (#5719225)
I think it has been noted.

The President meant "should." So did I.
   67. Cooper Nielson Posted: August 02, 2018 at 06:36 AM (#5719479)
Has there ever been a study of which teams had non-HOF players with the most career WAR? Before Morris and Trammell's election, the 1980s Tigers had to be contenders (non-steroid division), with them, Whitaker, Lemon, Darrell Evans, and then Gibson and Parrish a couple notches below them.

This is an interesting topic and as the 1980s Tigers are my favorite team of all time, I thought I'd do the research here, starting with the 1984 team (using career bWAR, 10.0 and above):

(70.7 - Alan Trammell)
(44.0 - Jack Morris)

75.1 - Lou Whitaker
58.8 - Darrell Evans
55.6 - Chet Lemon
39.5 - Lance Parrish
38.4 - Kirk Gibson
22.6 - Ruppert Jones
22.2 - Howard Johnson
17.3 - Dan Petry
16.6 - Johnny Grubb (career 121 OPS+ over nearly 5000 PA)
16.6 - Willie Hernandez
15.8 - Dave Rozema
15.1 - Larry Herndon
13.2 - Milt Wilcox
11.6 - Tom Brookens
10.0 - Juan Berenguer

Moving to 1985, Jones, Johnson, and Rozema are gone, but you pick up these guys:

57.6 - Frank Tanana
10.9 - Walt Terrell

In 1986 we say goodbye to Berenguer and Wilcox, and hello to:

17.5 - Jim Slaton
15.8 - Dave Collins
13.4 - Mike Heath
12.5 - Bill Campbell
12.3 - Brian Harper

In 1987 we lose Parrish, and the less-important Campbell, Collins, Harper and Slaton, but pick up:

38.2 - Bill Madlock
34.7 - Doyle Alexander
12.9 - Mike Henneman
11.9 - Jim Morrison

Finally, in 1988, the last year before the collapse, a team with both Billy Bean and Billy Beane, we lose Gibson, Grubb, Madlock and Petry, but add some interesting post-prime names:

50.2 - Fred Lynn
33.2 - Dwayne Murphy
22.0 - Gary Pettis
13.3 - Ray Knight
11.0 - Ivan DeJesus

So that 1988 team, largely forgotten now, had all these guys in the 20+ WAR club:

(70.7 - Alan Trammell)
(44.0 - Jack Morris)
75.1 - Lou Whitaker
58.8 - Darrell Evans
57.6 - Frank Tanana
55.6 - Chet Lemon
50.2 - Fred Lynn
34.7 - Doyle Alexander
33.2 - Dwayne Murphy
22.0 - Gary Pettis

That's 5 non-HOFers with 50+ WAR.
   68. DavidFoss Posted: August 02, 2018 at 08:04 AM (#5719490)
Has there ever been a study of which teams had non-HOF players with the most career WAR?

The 1981 Dodgers always come up in these discussions. Don Sutton left for the Astros in the previous off-season so they won the WS without any HOF-ers yet still had all those all-stars and seven 150-game winners on the pitching staff.
   69. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: August 02, 2018 at 08:05 AM (#5719491)
So that 1988 team, largely forgotten now, had all these guys in the 20+ WAR club:

(70.7 - Alan Trammell)
(44.0 - Jack Morris)
75.1 - Lou Whitaker
58.8 - Darrell Evans
57.6 - Frank Tanana
55.6 - Chet Lemon
50.2 - Fred Lynn
34.7 - Doyle Alexander
33.2 - Dwayne Murphy
22.0 - Gary Pettis

That's 5 non-HOFers with 50+ WAR.


And all of them on the downside of their careers. How unsurprising that in 1989 they went from 88-74 to 59-103.
   70. DavidFoss Posted: August 02, 2018 at 09:19 AM (#5719513)
That's 5 non-HOFers with 50+ WAR.

The record is the 2007 Yankees with 10. All teams with 7+ are Yankees teams betwen 1997-2013. Many of those will be eventually be inducted, so that number will fall.

Pre-1990, the record is indeed 5.

1979-NYY 5 3 HOF
1979
-CAL 5 2 HOF
1980
-NYY 5 3 HOF
1982
-CAL 5 2 HOF
1988
-DET 5 2 HOF
1989
-TEX 5 1 HOF 

   71. Rally Posted: August 02, 2018 at 09:22 AM (#5719516)
It needs to be noted that one has to go through some mental contortions to make it seem that Morris deserves selection to the HOF. His WAR accumulation is awful Bert Blyleven has twice Morris's WAR and it took him almost forever. It should have taken Morris forever and a day.


If you put it that way, sounds exactly like what happened. Blyleven gets in on his 14th ballot, Morris strikes out on 15 and gets in by the VC.
   72. DavidFoss Posted: August 02, 2018 at 09:28 AM (#5719522)
The record is the 2007 Yankees with 10.

The teams with the most career WAR on their roster are dominated by 2000s-era Yankees as well. But the 1928 A's are still clinging to the top spot:
1928-PHA   1132.7
2005
-NYY   1102.4
2000
-NYY   1017.3
2012
-NYY   1017.0
2004
-NYY   1008.7
2008
-NYY   1005.0
1927
-PHA    998.3
2006
-NYY    995.6
1996
-NYY    995.1
1979
-NYY    987.3 


non-Yankees teams further down include the 1996-CLE, 1972-LAN, 1959-MLN, 1992-TOR, 1983-PHI.
   73. DavidFoss Posted: August 02, 2018 at 09:51 AM (#5719540)
The 1981 Dodgers always come up in these discussions.

As long as I have the scripts running. The cutoff for Dodger teams of this era is not 50-WAR but 30-WAR. Pre-1990, the 1978-80 teams have the record with 14 non-HOFers with 30+ WAR each plus the 1 HOF-er Sutton.

In 1981, the Dodgers had 13 non-HOFers with 30+ WAR and no HOF-er (Sutton went to Houston). They also have the most career WAR on their roster for a team with no HOF-er (pre-1990) with 806.58.
   74. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 02, 2018 at 10:09 AM (#5719553)
Not in the least. Jack Morris was pushed over the top and into the HOF as a direct #### you to the people who finally got Bert Blyleven elected last year.

He wasn't really "pushed" over the top--his percentage actually went down his final year on the writers' ballot. He went in on his first appearance on the VC ballot. Maybe the VC was trying to give a big middle finger to the sabermetric crowd. Maybe they just wanted the internet arguments to end. Who knows?
   75. Cooper Nielson Posted: August 02, 2018 at 11:25 AM (#5719600)
This is what I love about BTF. Thanks for the excellent research, DavidFoss!
   76. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: August 02, 2018 at 11:25 AM (#5719601)
1983 "Wheeze Kids" Phillies, also featuring some notable rookies

79.7 Pete Rose, the ultimate non-HOFer but with barely more WAR than Alan Trammell (thanks to, for example, -2.1 WAR in 1983)
36.8 Garry Maddox
31.2 John Denny
30.4 Gary Matthews Sr.
29.9 Von Hayes (now THAT is more than I would have guessed)
28.3 Sixto Lezcano
25.9 Kevin Gross
24.9 Ron Reed
23.0 Darren Daulton
21.1 Tug McGraw
17.5 Dick Ruthven
17.0 Juan Samuel
16.6 Willie Hernandez
13.8 Larry Andersen
12.5 Greg Gross
12.1 Al Holland
11.5 Bo Diaz
11.0 Ivan de Jesus

Not that impressive! (since Mike Schmidt, Steve Carlton, Tony Perez, and Joe Morgan, unfortunately for the purpose of this exercise, are in the HOF)
   77. Cooper Nielson Posted: August 02, 2018 at 11:50 AM (#5719619)
The teams with the most career WAR on their roster are dominated by 2000s-era Yankees as well. But the 1928 A's are still clinging to the top spot:
1928-PHA 1132.7
2005-NYY 1102.4


The only still-active members of the 2005 Yankees, as far as I can tell, are Robinson Cano (35 years old) and Melky Cabrera (almost 34). There's a chance they have another 30.4 combined WAR left in them, but it's looking very unlikely at the moment.

The 2008 Yankees (Cano, Phil Hughes, Francisco Cervelli, Brett Gardner, Ian Kennedy) have a bit of life in them but not enough to make up 127.7 WAR -- unless Kennedy and Hughes somehow turn into Jamie Moyer and Randy Johnson.

The 2012 Yankees (Cano, Hughes, Cervelli, Gardner, CC Sabathia, Curtis Granderson, Adam Warren, David Phelps, Eduardo Nunez, Ivan Nova, David Robertson, Boone Logan, Steve Pearce, Russell Martin, Chris Stewart) obviously have a lot more still-active players, but none of those guys are really WAR factories (or not anymore) so it will be interesting to see how close they get to the 1928 A's.
   78. BDC Posted: August 02, 2018 at 12:12 PM (#5719634)
1983 "Wheeze Kids" Phillies


My favorite team ever.

I am a little amazed to see Pete Rose with "only" 80 career WAR. I guess his high-water-mark was 82 after the 1981 season. He's 40th on the position-player leaderboard, in the middle of Carew, Gehringer, Brooks Robinson, and Robin Yount. Actually put that way it seems about right; Rose was no better than any of those guys. It's just that it's a bit startling to think of 39 players being ahead of him.

Part of it's just that I'm getting old. After the 1981 season, Rose was 25th in career position-player WAR. A lot of great players have come by since.
   79. Adam Starblind Posted: August 02, 2018 at 12:24 PM (#5719645)
Not to defend Morris, but he is a bit damaged by war


Even if you give him credit for his time in Grenada, I think he still comes up short.
   80. -- Posted: August 02, 2018 at 12:34 PM (#5719650)
He wasn't really "pushed" over the top--his percentage actually went down his final year on the writers' ballot. He went in on his first appearance on the VC ballot. Maybe the VC was trying to give a big middle finger to the sabermetric crowd. Maybe they just wanted the internet arguments to end.


Or maybe they were just persuaded by the very reasonable arguments that he belongs in the Hall of Fame. (*)

There's also a reasonable argument that he doesn't. On balance, the "he does" arguments prevailed. There was actually a time where that kind of result was understood by virtually all participants but unfortunately that time has passed. Primary causes of death: social media and the internet.

(*) And honestly, if one really truly honestly doesn't understand those arguments -- as opposed to pretending not to for social media/message board effect or credibility -- one is not particularly well-informed.
   81. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 02, 2018 at 12:42 PM (#5719661)

I'd be curious about the worst teams with the most career WAR. I.e. which sub-.500 team had the most career WAR? Which sub-.400 team had the most?

I think about teams like the 1992 Mets, who had a few good young guys (Jeff Kent, David Cone) plus a number of past-their-prime guys (Eddie Murray, Willie Randolph, Brett Saberhagen, Doc Gooden, Bobby Bonilla, HoJo, Sid Fernandez*). Dave Magadan and John Franco were also good for 20+ career WAR.

* Actually, Fernandez put up arguably his best season that year.
   82. Morty Causa Posted: August 02, 2018 at 12:49 PM (#5719668)
It's as easy to overrate as to underrate Pete Rose. Yeah, the guy has 80 WAR--in almost 16K PAs. Rose was the beneficiary of MLB's largesse. He was allowed to play way beyond his shelf date so that he could break Cobb's record for hits. (And we all know the long bloody history of his gratefully repaying Baseball for this.)

Rose was never the best player in Baseball, the best player in his league, the best player at his position, or the best player on his team. He stayed good, or gave that impression, for a very long time. He's the poster boy for value accumulation over a long period. That's something.

Morris doesn't nearly have anything remotely of that sort going for him.
   83. GordonShumway Posted: August 02, 2018 at 01:10 PM (#5719684)
I'd be curious about the worst teams with the most career WAR. I.e. which sub-.500 team had the most career WAR? Which sub-.400 team had the most?

I think about teams like the 1992 Mets, who had a few good young guys (Jeff Kent, David Cone) plus a number of past-their-prime guys (Eddie Murray, Willie Randolph, Brett Saberhagen, Doc Gooden, Bobby Bonilla, HoJo, Sid Fernandez*). Dave Magadan and John Franco were also good for 20+ career WAR.

* Actually, Fernandez put up arguably his best season that year.


First teams that came to mind were the 1993 Rangers and the 1998 Orioles.

Rangers: Nolan Ryan, Kevin Brown, Palmeiro, Pudge-Rod, Juan Gone, Canseco, Jose Guzman, Ruben Sierra, Brian Downing (did not remember him hanging on this long), Julio Franco, Floyd Bannister, Kenny Rogers...Not a bad group.

Orioles: Ripken, Alomar, Palmeiro, Eric Davis, Harold Baines, Mike Musina, Jan Guzman, Doug Drabek, Jimmy Key, Mike Bordick, BJ Surhoff, Brady Anderson...not a bad group either, but the Rangers look better.
   84. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: August 02, 2018 at 01:19 PM (#5719689)
Rose was never the best player in Baseball, the best player in his league, the best player at his position, or the best player on his team. He stayed good, or gave that impression, for a very long time. He's the poster boy for value accumulation over a long period. That's something.


I was too young at that time to really understand this, but, why did the Phillies sign the 37-year old Rose to a 4-year deal? And, then, what the heck possessed them to re-sign him for the 1983 season?

edit: and why would they have an old player play EVERY game of that 4-year deal?
   85. BDC Posted: August 02, 2018 at 01:22 PM (#5719692)
which sub-.500 team had the most career WAR?


The 2001 Rangers had a good core for a bad (.451) team, including several guys there or back again from the '93 team that Gordon mentioned:

AROD 118
Palmeiro 72
Pudge 69
Kenny Rogers 51
Ken Caminiti 34
Andres Galarraga 32
Randy Velarde 25
Michael Young 25
Carlos Peña 25
Rusty Greer 22
Darren Oliver 22
Rick Helling 20

Plus players with between 10 and 20 WAR like Doug Davis, Chad Curtis, Ruben Sierra.

Though some of those guys were barely around: Caminiti, Galarraga, and Velarde were all there breifly, early on, and then left. Peña was just breaking in and had only 72 PAs that year. RA Dickey (24 WAR) pitched 4 games for them; I don't know if he should count. Justin Duchscherer (10 WAR) pitched five.
   86. Rally Posted: August 02, 2018 at 01:43 PM (#5719703)
which sub-.500 team had the most career WAR?


1983 Angels had to be up there. By that time almost all the WAR was in the rearview mirror, but:

Reggie 74
Lynn 50
Downing 52
DeCinces 42
Grich 71
Carew 81
Boone 27
Ferguson 21
Pettis 22
Burleson 23
John 62
Forsch 26
Zahn 21
Kison 15
Witt 22
Goltz 23
   87. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 02, 2018 at 01:54 PM (#5719712)

It's as easy to overrate as to underrate Pete Rose. Yeah, the guy has 80 WAR--in almost 16K PAs. Rose was the beneficiary of MLB's largesse. He was allowed to play way beyond his shelf date so that he could break Cobb's record for hits. (And we all know the long bloody history of his gratefully repaying Baseball for this.)

Rose was never the best player in Baseball, the best player in his league, the best player at his position, or the best player on his team. He stayed good, or gave that impression, for a very long time. He's the poster boy for value accumulation over a long period. That's something.


This is a bit unfair to Rose. He could have retired at 38, after about 12,000 PA, and still been an 80 WAR player with 3,372 hits (#8 in history at the time, #10 today after Yaz and Jeter passed him). That's a long career but it's on par with other 3,000-hit guys like Molitor, Winfield, Yount and Palmeiro. He stuck around to get the hits record, but he already had HOF-level counting stats at that point.
   88. QLE Posted: August 02, 2018 at 01:54 PM (#5719714)
There was actually a time where that kind of result was understood by virtually all participants but unfortunately that time has passed.


Dubious- note the number of changes that have taken place over the years concerning rules for VC eligibility and procedures based on concerns that they were inducting poor candidates for the HOF.
   89. bachslunch Posted: August 02, 2018 at 01:54 PM (#5719715)
Those bad Cubs teams of the 60s with Santo, Williams, Banks, and either Jenkins or Brock might be among the contenders for sub-.500 team with most career WAR.
   90. Rally Posted: August 02, 2018 at 01:57 PM (#5719718)
I was too young at that time to really understand this, but, why did the Phillies sign the 37-year old Rose to a 4-year deal? And, then, what the heck possessed them to re-sign him for the 1983 season?


They had a good team but kept getting beat by the Dodgers in the playoffs. Thought they needed a leader. Can't argue with the results, Rose hit .325 with great OBP in years 1 and 2, and they won the WS in year 2. He was bad in the final year, but I think you have to expect, any time you sign an old player to a multiyear deal, that you aren't going to get production in the last year.

No idea about resigning him for 1983. Maybe they wanted him to get hit #4000 in a Phillies uniform? Didn't work anyway, he finished 1983 with 3990. I guess they thought Len Matuszek needed a 5th year of AAA? Long story short the Phillies didn't have much of a clue what they were doing those days, as evidenced by the Sandberg and Franco trades.

Matuszek was nothing special but he did have a 124 OPS+ in 1984, and a 117 in 1986. Only played one more year and done in MLB at the age of 32. Phillies didn't give him any kind of chance until he was 29 years old. The best seasons of his career were probably wasted in AAA, where he spent most of his age 24-28 seasons.
   91. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 02, 2018 at 02:13 PM (#5719733)
The answer to my earlier question is probably the 1998 Mariners (76-85, but with a Pythag of 81-80):

A-Rod 118
RJ 104
Griffey 84
Edgar 68
Moyer 50
C. Guillen 28
Buhner 23
Ibanez 20
Timlin 19

Plus some other guys in the 10-15 range.
   92. GordonShumway Posted: August 02, 2018 at 02:15 PM (#5719736)
which sub-.500 team had the most career WAR?


1908 Boston Red Sox (75-79):

Cy Young 168
Tris Speaker 134.1
Eddie Cicotte 58.7
Larry Gardner 48.4
Jesse Tannehill 47.6
Smokey Joe Wood 39.8
Gavvy Cravath 33
Deacon McGuire 31.1

Several other guys with between 10-20 career WAR.
   93. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 02, 2018 at 02:17 PM (#5719739)
Looks like I may have spoken too soon, seeing #92.
   94. Morty Causa Posted: August 02, 2018 at 02:20 PM (#5719745)
I was too young at that time to really understand this, but, why did the Phillies sign the 37-year old Rose to a 4-year deal? And, then, what the heck possessed them to re-sign him for the 1983 season?

edit: and why would they have an old player play EVERY game of that 4-year deal?


Those are interesting questions. Bill James at the time, I remember, raised them in his Abstracts. First of all, it was thought at the time that Rose had tremendous intangible quality. And Bill did concede after the first season that Rose did have an inspiring effect on Schmidt--again, as I remember.

As to the playing every day, it may be hard to credit now, but there was a time when the conventional wisdom was that player tiredness was all mental. Many players subscribed to this baseball truth. It took some time for baseball people to be disabused of that idea, although even now it lingers in some quarters.

(I think Ripken would have been an even greater player if he had taken a few days off a season.)
   95. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: August 02, 2018 at 02:26 PM (#5719751)
No idea about resigning him for 1983. Maybe they wanted him to get hit #4000 in a Phillies uniform? Didn't work anyway, he finished 1983 with 3990. I guess they thought Len Matuszek needed a 5th year of AAA?



That was an amazing team. The 1983 Phillies gave 660 PA at first base to 42-year-old Pete Rose and 41-year old Tony Perez. They hit .240/.308/.310. Only 3 regulars on the team had over a 100 ops+. Somehow, they came in 3rd in the league in runs scored.
   96. Morty Causa Posted: August 02, 2018 at 02:27 PM (#5719752)
This is a bit unfair to Rose. He could have retired at 38, after about 12,000 PA, and still been an 80 WAR player with 3,372 hits (#8 in history at the time, #10 today after Yaz and Jeter passed him). That's a long career but it's on par with other 3,000-hit guys like Molitor, Winfield, Yount and Palmeiro. He stuck around to get the hits record, but he already had HOF-level counting stats at that point.

I wasn't arguing that he didn't have HOF hitting credentials. Although now that I think of it, that's a lot of water diluting that whiskey. What's his comparative pro-rata value on a PA basis?
   97. GordonShumway Posted: August 02, 2018 at 02:32 PM (#5719757)
1910 Cleveland Naps (71-81):

Cy Young 168
Nap 107.4
Joe Jackson 62.2
Elmer Flick 53.2
Roger Peckingpaugh 45.1
Addie Joss 44.2
Terry Turner 38
Bill Bradley 37
Deacon McGuire 31.1

   98. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 02, 2018 at 04:53 PM (#5719880)

I wasn't arguing that he didn't have HOF hitting credentials. Although now that I think of it, that's a lot of water diluting that whiskey. What's his comparative pro-rata value on a PA basis?


A Pete Rose who retired at 38 would not look out of place from a rate perspective with a number of other HOFers. He's not inner circle but he'd fit in with guys like Yount, Molitor, Brooks Robinson, and Reggie Jackson, and better than guys like Jeter, Biggio, Murray, and Winfield. The same would have been true of Rose at 39 or 40, except at that point he would have had a longer career than many of those guys.

Even at 42 or 43, he's basically on par with that latter group from a rate standpoint, but with a much longer career.

Player                  PA   WAA     WAR WAA/PA WAR/PA
Pete Rose             15890  29.1   79.7  1.1  3.0 
Pete Rose 44 (4204 H) 15618  31.0   80.5  1.2  3.1 
Pete Rose 43 (4097 H) 15117  32.2   80.0  1.3  3.2 
Pete Rose 42 (3990 H) 14696  32.7   79.0  1.3  3.2 
Pete Rose 41 (3869 H) 14141  36.7   81.1  1.6  3.4 
Carl Yastrzemski      13992  50.1   96.4  2.1  4.1 
Hank Aaron            13941  92.9  143.0  4.0  6.2 
Pete Rose 40 (3697 H) 13421  40.1   82.2  1.8  3.7 
Rickey Henderson      13346  69.0  111.2  3.1  5.0 
Ty Cobb               13087 102.0  151.0  4.7  6.9 
Pete Rose 39 (3557 H) 12935  39.9   80.5  1.9  3.7 
Cal Ripken Jr.        12883  53.5   95.9  2.5  4.5 
Eddie Murray          12817  27.4   68.7  1.3  3.2 
Stan Musial           12718  81.7  128.2  3.9  6.0 
Barry Bonds           12606 123.9  162.8  5.9  7.7 
Derek Jeter           12602  31.0   72.4  1.5  3.4 
Craig Biggio          12504  29.1   65.5  1.4  3.1 
Willie Mays           12496 110.3  156.4  5.3  7.5 
Dave Winfield         12358  24.0   64.2  1.2  3.1 
Robin Yount           12249  37.4   77.3  1.8  3.8 
Alex Rodriguez        12207  76.1  117.8  3.7  5.8 
Pete Rose 38 (3372 H) 12196  42.7   80.8  2.1  4.0 
Paul Molitor          12167  37.4   75.7  1.8  3.7 
Rafael Palmeiro       12046  30.3   71.9  1.5  3.6 
Eddie Collins         12046  78.9  124.0  3.9  6.2 
Omar Vizquel          12013   5.3   45.6  0.3  2.3 
Tris Speaker          11995  88.6  134.1  4.4  6.7 
Adrian Beltre         11956  54.3   94.6  2.7  4.7 
Brooks Robinson       11782  39.7   78.4  2.0  4.0 
Honus Wagner          11749  91.8  130.9  4.7  6.7 
Frank Robinson        11742  64.8  107.3  3.3  5.5 
George Brett          11625  50.6   88.7  2.6  4.6 
Al Kaline             11596  55.5   92.8  2.9  4.8 
Albert Pujols         11595  64.0  100.5  3.3  5.2 
Reggie Jackson        11418  35.4   74.0  1.9  3.9 
   99. DavidFoss Posted: August 02, 2018 at 05:12 PM (#5719895)
which sub-.500 team had the most career WAR?

Oops... I had an all-day meeting.

Turns out it's a bunch of Yankee teams. Bellyache Yankees lead the way:

NYA1925873.82
NYA
1982869.56
OAK
1987833.0
BAL
1998824.38
SLN
1956815.14
BAL
1995774.8
LAN
1979774.66
BOS
1908773.98
CHN
1966771.29 


   100. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 02, 2018 at 05:29 PM (#5719901)

By the way, I should have noted that the last two columns in post #98 are per 600 PA, not per PA as indicated.
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