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Friday, December 23, 2011
Hitch your jalopying Kubelwagen to a future star!
Last year Kubel, a lefty, hit .273 with 12 homers and a .766 OPS in about 400 plate appearances. Parra, also a lefty, hit .292 with 8 homers and a .784 OPS in just under 500 plate appearances. Parra created 71 runs to 59 for Kubel. Given the fewer plate appearances for Kubel, you can say offensively the two players were pretty even. But it’s defense that made Parra a much better player than Kubel in 2011. Parra saved an estimated 12 runs for Arizona last year. He won a Gold Glove in recognition for his superlative play in the field. Kubel cost his team about 3 runs defensively. That 15-run difference is huge.
...The most interesting number is the projected Runs Created, the Bill James statistic that measures total offensive contribution. Kubel has 77 projected runs created while Parra has 78. Parra has a few more at-bats, but I think you can easily say that these two players are pretty close offensively.
But not defensively. In the last three seasons Parra has saved 33 runs defensively while Kubel has cost his team a total of 3. That’s 36 runs better for Parra, and it makes him a better overall player than Kubel. Factoring offense and defense, you can estimate that with similar regular playing time, Parra will produce about 85-90 runs when you add in his defense compared to 75-80 runs for Kubel.
It’s possible that the Diamondbacks know something that we don’t know. Maybe they have another deal in the works. Maybe there’s something wrong with Parra. Maybe they can project players better than we can. But whatever it is, I don’t get it.
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