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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Friday, September 21, 2012
The White Sox hold a two-game lead over the Tigers today in the race for the AL Central Division title. One of the key reasons the Sox are on top is defense. Not because theirs is so good, but because the Tigers’ is so bad. Detroit has the worst defense in the American League. Compared to the average team, they have lost 39 runs on defense. The White Sox’s defense has saved five runs, which makes them an average defense.
That’s a difference of 44 runs, a difference of four games in the standings.
When the Tigers signed Prince Fielder to team up with Miguel Cabrera, the plan was to supercharge their offense. While both players are having excellent seasons, it hasn’t worked as well as planned. In 2011, the Tigers scored 4.9 runs per game. This year, they are down to 4.5 runs. Defensively, both Fielder and Cabrera are hurting the team. Ten of the 39 runs lost on defense are from those two, five apiece at their respective positions.
I am somewhat surprised that Cabrera hasn’t been worse at third base. ...
Thanks to Gerry.
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1. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: September 21, 2012 at 06:27 AM (#4241816)I bet you they've lost another 10 from SS (Peralta) and the cast of thousands at second base.
10 runs lost on fielding vs 3.6 WAR gained to date. How did this part of Detroit's plan not work out?
I think the fair comparison is 2012 Cabrera at 3B/Delmon at DH to hypothetical-2012 Inge at 3B/Cabrera at DH. That probably would have worked better (though I have no idea who the Tigers backup 3Bmen is then. Probably Don Kelly.
BRef has Peralta as dead avg. on D, Fangraphs at +10.
I tend to believe avg. more.
Baker -.4
Berry .1
Boesch -1.2
Dirks 1.7
Infante .6
Inge -.5
Kelly -.9
Raburn -2
Santiago -.8
Worth -.3
Young -.7
That comes to -4.4 WAR. Given we're talking about 4 positions, that's 12 wins below average at 2B, LF, RF and DH. Any team would struggle to overcome that.
I don't think expecting Raburn and Boesch to play like slightly-above replacement players was an absurd expectation.
The LFers have to be giving positive value (Dirks, Berry and assorted), so it's even worse at the other 3 spots.
No, it wasn't but it wouldn't have been absurd to think that Brandon Inge would as well. And in fact Inge was barely above replacement on the year as a whole. What's somewhat surprising about that list is that not only did those guys hit like crap but most of them were below-average fielders as well.
But the key point is that you don't risk moving Cabrera to 3B -- where he was likely to be terrible defensively but hasn't been and where the risk of injury is surely higher -- in order to get players like Young, Raburn and Boesch into the game. The Tigers are apparently the last people on earth who think Delmon Young can hit.
In comparison, last year we had Youkilis going back to 3B, making room for Gonzalez and with Ortiz blocking the DH slot. That's a case where the payoff from the risk is obvious. Had they signed Fielder before VMart was hurt, then Cabrera's move would have been very similar to Youk's. And maybe next year that's the way it will work.
I don't think they'd have done the Fielder signing if VMart wasn't hurt. BUT I do think the Tigers, at least partially, had 2013 in mind when Miggy made the move to third. Maybe I'm giving them too much credit.
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