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Tuesday, October 16, 2007

Dewan: Which outfielders have robbed hitters of the most home runs?

If only Manny had decent home leaps…

Baseball Info Solutions has been keeping a database over the last four years of good and great fieldiing plays. One of the coolest elements is called “RobsHR.” That’s a tally of home runs robbed by outfielders. You know, that leaping grab with the mitt hanging over the fence. Who’s been the best? Here are the leaders for the last four years:

Torii Hunter, Twins 8
Jason Bay, Pirates 6
Gary Matthews, Jr., Angels 6
Lew Ford, Twins 5
Carlos Beltran, Mets 4
Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners 4
Randy Winn, Giants 4
Nook Logan, Nationals 4
Curtis Granderson, Tigers 4
Luis Gonzalez, Dodgers 4
Andruw Jones, Braves 4

Repoz Posted: October 16, 2007 at 04:17 AM | 54 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: general

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   1. Colonel Mortimer Posted: October 16, 2007 at 04:29 AM (#2578759)
I'm crediting the low fence at PNC for Jason Bay's high total.
   2. Kyle S Posted: October 16, 2007 at 04:30 AM (#2578760)
I'm pretty surprised to see Jason Bay at second, I ain't gonna lie.
   3. J. Michael Neal Posted: October 16, 2007 at 04:48 AM (#2578778)
Torii Hunter is good, but centerfield in the Metrodome is the best position in the majors to rack up this stat. Not only is the wall low, but unless you're unlucky enough to hit a post, you can run into it a full speed with no worries.
   4. Every Inge Counts Posted: October 16, 2007 at 05:01 AM (#2578800)
Nice to see Granderson on the list considering he has been playing full-time for only 2 seasons....of course Nook Logan is also on the list.
   5. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: October 16, 2007 at 05:06 AM (#2578806)
I'd like to see the park/position factors for this stat. Manny isn't going to rob many, even being Manny.
   6. akrasian Posted: October 16, 2007 at 05:23 AM (#2578865)
I want to know who counted these. The majority that the mass media credit it seems aren't really robbing players of home runs. It seems the majority of the time when some anchor is raving about a play as robbing a home run - it's actually robbing a double, since the glove is either barely above the fence and several feet away from it, or just below the top of the fence. I suppose I could read the article.
   7. MSI Posted: October 16, 2007 at 05:30 AM (#2578880)
I know what you mean akrasian, but a lot of those would bounce off the top of the fence and into the stands. Some would be doubles, but also if it goes off the wall who knows if it gives time for an inside the parker.
   8. Beauregard Posted: October 16, 2007 at 06:00 AM (#2578989)
I can't believe Jeremy Giambi didn't make the list.
   9. scareduck Posted: October 16, 2007 at 06:13 AM (#2579009)
I'm not surprised to see Matthews, Jr. on this list prominently. On the other hand, he will botch the routine play. UZR had him as one of the worst centerfielders in the league this year, but I think he's actually just mediocre.
   10. mgl Posted: October 16, 2007 at 06:27 AM (#2579032)
Matthews ended up at -8 per 150 in 135 games this year. Not too awful. Last year he was +6 and the year before he was like +20. I guess being off the juice doesn't help your defense either.

Obviously if robbing home runs (or doubles or triples - and I agree that many of those so-called "home run robs" by the announcers were not going to be home runs) is a skill, it is a valuable one.

But like anything else, just giving the leaders or trailers tells us nothing (about talent) unless we know the quanity of skill involved, using some number like a y-t-y correlation. Plus as has been already pointed out, park factors are a must with these numbers.

The list does seem like it contains some speedy guys though. If speedy guys tend to have this skill (and it is a skill) while the slow ones don't, we are probably way underrating them (and overrating the slow guys). UZR (and other metrics) also underrates speed and arm with respect to cutting off hits and holding players to singles rather than doubles or doubles rather than singles.
   11. Halofan Posted: October 16, 2007 at 06:28 AM (#2579035)
Gary Pettis - like a trillion
   12. McCoy Posted: October 16, 2007 at 06:33 AM (#2579045)
Torii Hunter, Twins 8
Jason Bay, Pirates 6
Gary Matthews, Jr., Angels 6
Lew Ford, Twins 5
Carlos Beltran, Mets 4
Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners 4
Randy Winn, Giants 4
Nook Logan, Nationals 4
Curtis Granderson, Tigers 4
Luis Gonzalez, Dodgers 4
Andruw Jones, Braves 4


Jose Canseco -1
   13. Michael Kay Posted: October 16, 2007 at 06:39 AM (#2579050)
AND MELKY CABRERA, WITH ONE OF THE GREATEST CATCHES YOU WILL EVER SEE!!!!!!
   14. PreservedFish Posted: October 16, 2007 at 06:47 AM (#2579060)
"The majority that the mass media credit it seems aren't really robbing players of home runs."

BIS must have a pretty stingy definition for "RobsHR" ... two per year for the finest homerun robber in baseball isn't much. And only 1 per year for guys like Beltran and Andruw. If you asked the average Twins fan how many homeruns Torii Hunter robs per year, I'm sure they would guess 5+.
   15. CFiJ Posted: October 16, 2007 at 11:11 AM (#2579082)
Ichiro snagged one with an awesome Spider-Man climb up the wall. Shouldn't that count as two?
   16. Dudefella Posted: October 16, 2007 at 11:33 AM (#2579087)
If we're awarding bonus points, Endy Chavez's catch in the playoffs last year gets about fifty.

Manny isn't going to rob many, even being Manny.


I just had this image of Manny leaping 100 feet into the air, Lee Majors-style. In my head, it was pretty awesome.
   17. Mirabelli Dictu (Chris McClinch) Posted: October 16, 2007 at 11:42 AM (#2579090)
I just had this image of Manny leaping 100 feet into the air, Lee Majors-style. In my head, it was pretty awesome.

It's even awesomer if you picture it with that Six Million Dollar Man sound effect as Manny leaps.
   18. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: October 16, 2007 at 12:23 PM (#2579102)
#12: RDF.

It's even awesomer if you picture it with that Six Million Dollar Man sound effect as Manny leaps.

It's even awesomer if he loses his hat on the way up and you see his dreads billowing over his head on the way down.
   19. kthejoker Posted: October 16, 2007 at 01:01 PM (#2579136)
Including All-Star Games, Torii's at 9.

EDIT: Oh, past four years. So never mind, then.
   20. Rally Posted: October 16, 2007 at 01:20 PM (#2579162)
If speedy guys tend to have this skill (and it is a skill) while the slow ones don't, we are probably way underrating them (and overrating the slow guys). UZR (and other metrics) also underrates speed and arm with respect to cutting off hits and holding players to singles rather than doubles or doubles rather than singles.


For robbing homeruns, the top guy averages 2 per year, and 1 per year gets you on the leader list. Even without considering ballpark opportunities, its only slightly underrating them. We could give a +1 in runs for every homer robbed, since the average catch, compared to not making one is around .85, a homer is worth about 1.4, with .3 for the out.

Cutting off hits: Yeah, there's probably a lot of game impact that could be found from a good study on that.
   21. joker24 Posted: October 16, 2007 at 01:34 PM (#2579175)
This is one thing I've wondered for awhile about outfield defensive positioning: do they actually play shallow/deep enough? But really, would playing shallower prevent enough (bloop) hits to make up for the increased amount of doubles given up? Obviously this is going to be different from guy to guy as we'd never want to see Chris Duncan have to make any more over the shoulder catches than we already don't, but just wondering.
   22. Brandon in MO (Yunitility Infielder) Posted: October 16, 2007 at 01:42 PM (#2579185)
An all-time list for this stat probably would not include Dave Kingman.
   23. Cris E Posted: October 16, 2007 at 02:48 PM (#2579295)
JMN is correct, there's a serious park factor to these. Lew Ford is nobody's idea of an AllStar CF but he reached #4 while only playing when Hunter was on the DL. Torii gets hurt a fair amount, but not that much.
   24. Rally Posted: October 16, 2007 at 02:58 PM (#2579313)
JMN is correct, there's a serious park factor to these. Lew Ford is nobody's idea of an AllStar CF but he reached #4 while only playing when Hunter was on the DL.


I'm not disagreeing that its easier to get these in Minnesota, but Ford didn't rob all these homers while just playing as Torii's backup, that' a 4 year total, Lew Ford did get a decent amount of playing time from 2004-2005.

In all of baseball, there were 185 homeruns robbed in all of baseball. Only 40-50 per year, the average team gets one every 3 years. The average OF position robs one every 10 years. Its a rare play.
   25. sptaylor Posted: October 16, 2007 at 03:03 PM (#2579323)
No. 21 Pujols
Gary Pettis (or another CFer from that era) said in an article posted here that most outfielders play too deep. He argued that even if you play deep, a long line drive is just going to go over you head anyway, and you would save more runs by playing shallow. This would, of course, decrease the number of home runs that one would be able to rob.
   26. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: October 16, 2007 at 03:04 PM (#2579324)
But really, would playing shallower prevent enough (bloop) hits to make up for the increased amount of doubles given up?

Back in the late 90s, when even Chris Dial admitted that Andruw Jones was a defensive god, this is what he did. He always played three to five steps close to 2B than any other CF. He took away a gazillion singles that way, and he was good enough to get the gappers on the run. As he aged he lost a step or two and his "terrible defense" years were the years he was adjusting to his new "old man" speed. He could not longer get to the doubles. He eventually stepped back a bit, gave up a few more singles, but once again started running down the doubles.
   27. SoSH U at work Posted: October 16, 2007 at 03:09 PM (#2579333)
Wasn't Speaker the defining shallow-playing centerfielder?
   28. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: October 16, 2007 at 03:14 PM (#2579339)
But really, would playing shallower prevent enough (bloop) hits to make up for the increased amount of doubles given up?

Dwayne Murphy! Nobody played more shallow than Murph!
   29. Kyle S Posted: October 16, 2007 at 03:14 PM (#2579341)
AROM, unless I'm crazy, 185 / 4 = 46.25. There are 30 teams in MLB, so the average team robs 1.54 homers per year. Assuming they are equally distributed (a terrible assumption), the average OF robs one every other year. So MLB average over this time span for OFs playing full time is 2.

Right?
   30. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: October 16, 2007 at 03:27 PM (#2579365)
Dwayne Murphy! Nobody played more shallow than Murph!

Paul Blair says hi
   31. Hang down your head, Tom Foley Posted: October 16, 2007 at 03:52 PM (#2579390)
If, when Canseco was pitching, somebody had lined a ball off his head and into the stands behind one of the dugouts, would that be a home run, a double, or something else?
What if the ball had hit off Canseco's head in fair territory in the outfield, then again off his head in foul territory, and bounced over the wall in fair territory? Would that still be a home run?
   32. J. Lowenstein Apathy Club Posted: October 16, 2007 at 03:56 PM (#2579394)
I know cursing in our handles is bad for children and cute little animals, but that handle made me laugh.

Paul Blair says hi

Tris Speaker laughs in your face
   33. villageidiom Posted: October 16, 2007 at 04:10 PM (#2579424)
An all-time list for this stat probably would not include Dave Kingman.

I play softball with someone who uses a Dave Kingman glove. That says about all you need to know about my softball team.

If, when Canseco was pitching, somebody had lined a ball off his head and into the stands behind one of the dugouts, would that be a home run, a double, or something else?

Double. Rule 6.09(h):

The batter becomes a runner when any fair fly ball is deflected by the fielder into the stands, or over the fence into foul territory, in which case the batter shall be entitled to advance to second base; but if deflected into the stands or over the fence in fair territory, the batter shall be entitled to a home run.

What if the ball had hit off Canseco's head in fair territory in the outfield, then again off his head in foul territory, and bounced over the wall in fair territory? Would that still be a home run?

Yes. The ball would be ruled fair based on the first contact with Canseco's head, then rule 6.09(h) would apply thereafter.

They would also throw Canseco a fish.
   34. Jefferson Manship (Dan Lee) Posted: October 16, 2007 at 04:22 PM (#2579446)
Jose Canseco -1

Jason Michaels too. He bobbled a ball and knocked it over the fence with his glove, I think against the Braves in September '04.
   35. Rally Posted: October 16, 2007 at 04:31 PM (#2579461)
AROM, unless I'm crazy, 185 / 4 = 46.25. There are 30 teams in MLB, so the average team robs 1.54 homers per year. Assuming they are equally distributed (a terrible assumption), the average OF robs one every other year. So MLB average over this time span for OFs playing full time is 2.

Right?


Right. I don't know what I was thinking. Its a rare play, but a cool one.
   36. Daryn Posted: October 16, 2007 at 04:34 PM (#2579463)
Gary Pettis (or another CFer from that era) said in an article posted here that most outfielders play too deep. He argued that even if you play deep, a long line drive is just going to go over you head anyway, and you would save more runs by playing shallow.

For a five year period, I played an extremely shallow centrefield for two teams. One coach tracked the results and concluded that we were converting 5 singles into outs for every double that otherwise would have been caught. It was so obviously successful that two of our opposing teams adopted it. It is not clear to me that this success would translate equally well to MLB given that the players I played against didn't hit the ball as hard or as far as MLBers. Still, I think it would be worthwhile for a team like Tampa to try it next year (great outfield speed, no playoff chances to blow).

Question: do you think they count the plays in Boston's right field and Anaheim's left field where the outfielder just has to catch a ball with minimal effort up against the waist high wall that otherwise would be a homerun?
   37. Khrushin it bro Posted: October 16, 2007 at 04:43 PM (#2579477)
Tonight I play softball with a very speedy guy with no arm. Last week we were thinking he should play in left center and shallower than normal with the other two guys next to him playing deeper and back him up. This thread has given me more confidence. This is the week we won't get mercy ruled again!
   38. Charlie O Posted: October 16, 2007 at 04:59 PM (#2579499)
...You know, that leaping grab with the mitt hanging over the fence.

I think he meant glove. So far as I know, there has never been an instance when a first baseman or catcher robbed a hitter of a home run.
   39. Rally Posted: October 16, 2007 at 05:14 PM (#2579512)
Tonight I play softball with a very speedy guy with no arm.


You mean Johnny Damon type no-arm or Pete Gray no-arm?

I think he meant glove. So far as I know, there has never been an instance when a first baseman or catcher robbed a hitter of a home run.


There is one case, but he was also pitching and playing centerfield, and every other position at the same time for that matter. Name starts with a B. He robbed some guy who played for the Gashouse Gorillas.
   40. Bourbon Samurai, what price fettucine? Posted: October 16, 2007 at 05:22 PM (#2579525)
#12: RDF.

It's even awesomer if you picture it with that Six Million Dollar Man sound effect as Manny leaps.

It's even awesomer if he loses his hat on the way up and you see his dreads billowing over his head on the way down.


And his giant pants puff out to help him parachute safely to the ground.
   41. Jarrod HypnerotomachiaPoliphili (TeddyF.Ballgame) Posted: October 16, 2007 at 05:41 PM (#2579556)
Tonight I play softball with a very speedy guy with no arm. Last week we were thinking he should play in left center and shallower than normal with the other two guys next to him playing deeper and back him up.


This is what I tried to get my softball team to do, since I am that speedy no-arm guy. May you have better luck than I did in convincing the "coach."
   42. Guapo Posted: October 16, 2007 at 05:56 PM (#2579573)
Here's a question- when was the first documented "home run robbing?"

The first one I remember was Dave Winfield taking one away from Doug DeCinces in Yankee Stadium in 1981, but it obviously goes back way before then. For some reason though, you almost never hear about someone going over the fence to take away a homer pre-1980. Am I forgetting something?

There's Al Gionfriddo I guess, although my memory of that catch was that leaping wasn't involved.

Why don't we ever read about anyone taking a home run away from Babe Ruth?
   43. SoSH U at work Posted: October 16, 2007 at 06:06 PM (#2579584)
Here's a question- when was the first documented "home run robbing?"


Sam Rice - 1925 World Series is a candidate, though not sure if the ball actually would have gotten out.
   44. Guapo Posted: October 16, 2007 at 06:26 PM (#2579603)
OK, I found the following from the June 23, 1919 New York Times. It's awesome:

Oh, look! See where those Yanks are this morning. The little rascals have climbed right up into the front seat of the American League band wagon. Chicago and Cleveland are getting a good whiff of their dust and gasoline. New York's got the right of way and any team that tries to hold up the main traffic is liable to get bumped.

Up at the Polo Grounds yesterday, with 25,000 fans lending their voices and moral support, Huggins' ambitious lads beat the Boston Red Sox, 6 to 2...

...In the game there was a touch of every kind of baseball to stir up the enthusiasm of the onlookers, and there was one catch by Sam Vick of a mighty wallop by Babe Ruth which brought the crowd to its toes in a clamorous outburst of spontaneous glee.

Vick Makes Great Catch.

This was in the eighth inning when the score was 4 to 2 in favor of the Yanks. Frank Gilhooley, the former Yank right fielder, was elected to bat for Oscar Vitt, who had been unable to connect with Shore. Amos Strunk forced Gilhooley and along came Ruth. Vick and [centerfielder] Bodie turned about and walked in the general direction of the fence. Vick walked so far it looked as if he had quit the game and was hoofing it to the clubhouse. Vick, however, rested before he got to the fence. He was so far away from the home plate it looked as if it would take a long range gun to shoot the ball out that far. That little walk that Vick took out toward the fence was the most fortunate hike he ever made.

Ruth came to the bat with Strunk at first... The Beantown mauler swung as only he can swing and the ball went on a mad, dizzy flight into right field.

The multitude gasped. You'd be willing to gamble your new straw hat that the ball would settle into the right field bleachers. All eyes were now on Vick. Sammy turned and started to close up the gap between himself and the fence. It looked as if he might have an outside chance of getting it, if the blamed ball stayed inside the lot. But no one could expect Vick to hop into the bleachers and get it, and that's just where it was headed for.

The fans in the front row of the bleachers jumped up and extended their hands ready to grab the ball. Vick went right back almost to the fence in the furthest corner of the Coogan meadow. Then he suddenly turned, threw up his hands, and nabbed the ball. The Yanks were saved and Samuel Vick had captured one of the longest smashes ever made in that section of the ball yard.
   45. Guapo Posted: October 16, 2007 at 06:37 PM (#2579617)
Here's another good one from June 9, 1912- Giants vs. Reds

By far the most sumptuous fielding gem of the year was contributed by "Red" Murray in the ninth inning, when he brazenly robbed Phelan of a home run by a marvelous catch. Phelan hammered the ball on a dizzy trip between centre and right. Murray and Becker both raced for it. Just as the ball was about to soar over Murray's auburn thatch Red did a Horine jump, vaulting on high. He stuck his mitted hand aloft and squeezed the ball. Down Murray fell in a heap, but he held onto the leather and turned a somersault on the terrace. The great stand full of people roared for five minutes in a cyclonic outburst of noisy admiration.


I had to look up "Horine jump"- apparently it's referring to George Horine, who won the bronze medal for the US in the high jump at the 1912 Summer Olympics.

Anyway, eat your heart out Torii Hunter.
   46. aleskel Posted: October 16, 2007 at 06:38 PM (#2579620)
If, when Canseco was pitching, somebody had lined a ball off his head and into the stands behind one of the dugouts, would that be a home run, a double, or something else?

Double. Rule 6.09(h):


coincidently, this actually happened during a Yankees game this year. I can't remember the game, but with the bases loaded, Melky Cabrera ripped a shot up the middle - it hit the pitcher in the leg and managed to kick directly sideways and into the stands. Ground-rule double, two runs score. It was one of the most bizzare plays I've seen.
   47. Los Angeles Waterloo of Black Hawk Posted: October 16, 2007 at 06:38 PM (#2579621)
Ichiro snagged one with an awesome Spider-Man climb up the wall. Shouldn't that count as two?

What was interesting about that play is that he actually screwed it up -- he got up on the fence way too early. What made it amazing is that he had the ability to just hang up there and wait for the ball.

Maybe he intended to get up there and wait, but it looked to me like he got up there, thought, "Whoops, no ball yet", and just Spider-Manned a way to stay there.
   48. aleskel Posted: October 16, 2007 at 06:38 PM (#2579622)
Murray's auburn thatch

insert Eddie Murray joke here
   49. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: October 16, 2007 at 06:46 PM (#2579637)
Thanks, Guapo, for saving me the trouble of looking up "Horine."
   50. Kiko Sakata Posted: October 16, 2007 at 06:53 PM (#2579649)
I love the prose in #44 and #45. It's kind of a shame that no beat writers write like that anymore (of course, here at BBTF we'd just rip them mercilessly if they did).
   51. aleskel Posted: October 16, 2007 at 07:10 PM (#2579673)
It's kind of a shame that no beat writers write like that anymore

if only Jay Mariotti took up the style! Then again, there are only so many synonyms for "fraud"
   52. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: October 16, 2007 at 07:13 PM (#2579679)
It's kind of a shame that no beat writers write like that anymore

Video killed the radio star, who took the wordsmith along with her. Sumptious, detail dripping prose is superfluous in the age of constantly repeated highlight reels.
   53. Kyle S Posted: October 16, 2007 at 07:18 PM (#2579690)
Man, I would have gambled my new straw hat that ball would have landed in the bleachers. What a play by Sammy Vick. Too bad he later went on to school his great-grandson in the art of dogfighting...
   54. esseff Posted: October 16, 2007 at 07:26 PM (#2579708)
So we're convinced that Vick really did "rob a home run" over those high concrete walls at the Polo Grounds? Or, given all the other flourishes, might "that's just where it was headed for" be a bit of hyperbole?

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