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Monday, September 27, 2010

Dewan: Who are the Favorites for the Fielding Bible and Gold Glove Awards?

With a week left in the regular season, let’s take a look at the leading contenders for baseball’s post-season defensive awards using Defensive Runs Saved as the key measure. This week we look at infielders and catchers. Next week we’ll take a look at the outfield along with pitchers.  (In the charts below, each player’s Defensive Runs Saved appears next to his name).

First Basemen- Athletics’ infielder Daric Barton had rated well in limited time before this year, but finally getting a chance to play everyday he’s taken it to another level with 20 Runs Saved so far this year. Another new face, Ike Davis of the Mets, ranks second despite beginning the year in the minors.

Third Basemen- Ryan Zimmerman leads the hot corner with 20 Runs Saved and it looks like he’ll bring home his second straight Fielding Bible Award. Chase Headley returned to his natural position at third base and has excelled, also saving an estimated 20 runs for the defensively-sound Padres.  There’s a nice battle for the AL Gold Glove between Jose Lopez, Evan Longoria and Adrian Beltre.  While Lopez has the most Runs Saved, it’s more likely that Longoria or Beltre will win.

Shortstops- Brendan Ryan is in first place on the Runs Saved leaderboard for shortstops, topping his 20 Runs Saved season last year with 26 so far this year. Alexei Ramirez and Yunel Escobar trail Ryan with 18 and 17 respectively.

Thanks to JJ McCoy.

Repoz Posted: September 27, 2010 at 10:19 PM | 11 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: books, projections, sabermetrics

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   1. X-Roid User Posted: September 27, 2010 at 10:38 PM (#3649845)
Aubrey Huff?
   2. Rich Rifkin Posted: September 27, 2010 at 10:56 PM (#3649860)
First Basemen- Athletics’ infielder Daric Barton had rated well in limited time before this year, but finally getting a chance to play everyday he’s taken it to another level with 20 Runs Saved so far this year.

I don't fancy myself enough of an expert to objectively judge Barton or other 1Bs, but if you ever get a chance to see him play, he is physically impressive for a smallish* first baseman. To say he is flexible is an understatement. He does the splits on almost every low throw on a close play. I've never seen another first baseman, including McCovey, more deserving of the title, "Stretch." Barton's ability to move to the ball has turned dozens of would be infield singles into outs.

*Barton is listed at 6'0", but seeing him stand next to runners on first base, he seems to be shorter than most players in the AL. I would guess he is closer to 5'10" than 6 feet.
   3. Rich Rifkin Posted: September 27, 2010 at 11:07 PM (#3649866)
b-ref's dWAR leaders (Fielding Bible Winner):
Michael Bourn* 2.5
Angel Pagan# 2.1
Justin Upton 2.0
Juan Pierre* 1.7
Jose Lopez 1.7
Gerardo Parra* 1.6
Yadier Molina 1.6 (FB)
Chase Headley# 1.6
Franklin Gutierrez 1.6
Andres Torres# 1.5
Evan Longoria 1.5
Shin-Soo Choo* 1.5
Peter Bourjos 1.5
Josh Wilson 1.4
Drew Stubbs 1.4
Brendan Ryan 1.4 (FB)
Jay Bruce* 1.4
Clint Barmes 1.4

Fangraphs' UZR leaders:
Carl Crawford 22.0
Brett Gardner 16.9
Ryan Zimmerman 15.9 (FB)
Michael Bourn 14.3
Chase Headley 14.1
Jay Bruce 14.0
Tony Gwynn 13.1
Kevin Kouzmanoff 12.7
Alexei Ramirez 12.6
Adrian Beltre 11.9
Gerardo Parra 11.7
Brendan Ryan 11.2 (FB)
Marlon Byrd 10.5
Brandon Phillips 10.4
Orlando Hudson 9.9 (FB)
Ichiro Suzuki 9.8
Justin Morneau 9.8
Daric Barton 9.7 (FB)
   4. Rich Rifkin Posted: September 27, 2010 at 11:35 PM (#3649878)
It interests me how far apart team defense ratings are between dWAR and UZR.

Teams ranked by b-ref's dWAR:
SEA 5.8
SFG 3.2
NYM 3.2
OAK 3.1
ATL 2.9
CLE 2.4
ARI 2.4
BOS 2.3
COL 2.2
TBR 1.9
DET 1.9
SDP 1.5
CIN 1.5
STL 1.4
PHI 1.1
TOR 0.1
LAD -0.1
NYY -1.1
FLA -1.3
MIL -1.6
TEX -1.9
LAA -2.3
KCR -2.3
BAL -2.3
MIN -2.5
WSN -2.6
CHW -3.1
HOU -3.4
CHC -3.7
PIT -9.5


Teams ranked by UZR/150:
Padres 7.7
Athletics 7
Giants 6.7
Rays 6.6
Diamondbacks 6.4
Reds 5.8
Mets 4.5
Twins 4
Rangers 2.9
Tigers 2.2
Yankees 1.3
Mariners 0.9
Red Sox 0.7
Blue Jays 0.4
Nationals -0.3
Cubs -0.9
Phillies -1
Angels -2
Brewers -2.2
Cardinals -2.4
Dodgers -2.6
White Sox -3.3
Astros -3.4
Marlins -3.5
Orioles -4.4
Rockies -5
Braves -6.1
Pirates -6.4
Indians -6.7
Royals -7.4

No consensus: Cleveland is ranked as the 2nd worst team defense by UZR/150, while it is 6th best in MLB by dWAR; Atlanta is ranked as the 4th worst team defense by UZR/150, while it is 5th best in MLB by dWAR; Minnesota is ranked as the 8th best team defense by UZR/150, while it is 6th worst in MLB by dWAR; and Colorado is ranked as the 5th worst team defense by UZR/150, while it is 9th best in MLB by dWAR.

Consensus teams: Oakland, Arizona and San Francisco are agreed to be among the best; Detroit they agree is in the upper third; Toronto and Philadelphia are middle of the pack; Milwaukee is bettered by two-thirds of all teams; and Baltimore and Pittsburgh are among the worst in both metrics.
   5. A triple short of the cycle Posted: September 28, 2010 at 02:54 AM (#3649977)
I'm glad to see Barton grade out well, he does *look* really good over there, fielding, throwing, stretching, scooping all.

Dumb question maybe: what does 20 runs saved on defense look like if you could move it over to his offense? Is it the same as 20 home runs? Barton hasn't hit for power (8 hr) but he's played great defense. Would average defense with 28 home runs be equivalent production?
   6. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: September 28, 2010 at 03:47 AM (#3649997)
IIRC, LWTS usually has a HR worth 1.4 runs, so that'd be about 14 HR added.
   7. Melo's Love Handles (NJ) Posted: September 28, 2010 at 03:58 AM (#3650005)
Sean Rodriguez's ranking does not pass the sniff test, unless he's been playing a lot more innings than I thought...or is the best defensive player ever.
   8. Harold Posted: September 28, 2010 at 05:09 AM (#3650055)
It interests me how far apart team defense ratings are between dWAR and UZR.


It looks like dWAR is Total Zone. So among other differences, dWAR doesn't use batted ball locations while UZR does.
   9. CW hits the pinata for the candy Posted: September 28, 2010 at 05:20 AM (#3650064)
Total Zone uses Gameday stringer hit location data. So they use batted ball locations, just not the same ones that UZR uses (which are provided by BIS).
   10. Rich Rifkin Posted: September 28, 2010 at 04:32 PM (#3650362)
#9 -- nonetheless, which one makes sense and which one doesn't?

In other words, if I were to say the Cleveland Indians had a terrible defense this year, would that statement be correct? According to UZR the answer is yes. But according to dWAR the answer is no, Cleveland had one of the best defensive teams in baseball this year. One of these is certainly wrong. At least one of the methodologies does not work. I hope the point comes soon when we know which one it is.

It really doesn't matter much to me as a consumer of the information how the stats are arrived at. What concerns me is that I don't know the answer to the most basic question: which teams played the best and worst defense?

The fact that a few (OAK, ARI and SFG) were at the top of both metrics doesn't even do me much good. It seems like random chance that a few would match up. If I laid out the 30 teams in the order presented by dWAR and then drew each team's name out of a hat and called that second order their UZR ranking, it's just as likely to match up a few at the top, middle and bottom as the real UZR rankings do.
   11. A triple short of the cycle Posted: September 28, 2010 at 04:37 PM (#3650365)
Thanks Tom Cervo. I find that helpful in evaluating Barton, who is quite an atypical first baseman. I think the A's have to go with Barton at first next season, he really is a plus player for them (performance per cost), even if he hasn't hit for power. Watching Carter try to play left field has been painful (he's really atrocious), I can't believe they will put him out there again next year. If Barton is at first, Carter will have to DH. Unless they trade one of Barton/Carter, it seems Cust may be the odd man out next year.

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