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Wednesday, March 27, 2019

Diamondbacks outfielder Steven Souza Jr. needs season-ending knee surgery after slipping on home plate

On Tuesday, the Arizona Diamondbacks announced outfielder Steven Souza Jr. will undergo season-ending surgery to repair a substantial left knee injury that includes an ACL tear, LCL tear, partial PCL tear, and posterior lateral capsule tear. Souza exited Monday’s exhibition game against the Chicago White Sox at Chase Field after a scary slip while he was crossing home plate.

Souza, 29, missed most of 2018 because of injuries. He hit .220 with five home runs and 29 RBIs in 272 plate appearances (72 games) in last year. He had been pegged to serve as Arizona’s everyday right fielder, but the D-Backs will likely use veteran Adam Jones to fill the spot.

Jones signed a one-year, $3 million contract with the Diamondbacks earlier this month. That leaves Ketel Marte in for the everyday role in center field and David Peralta in left. Jarrod Dyson projects to come off the bench as the Diamondbacks’ fourth outfielder.

Expecting people to start to argue that players need not run the bases in 3, 2, 1….

 

QLE Posted: March 27, 2019 at 01:43 AM | 110 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: diamondbacks, knee, steven souza, surgery

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   1. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: March 27, 2019 at 02:26 PM (#5825764)
Three years ago AJ Pollock broke his thumb in the last exhibition game, costing him pretty much the whole season. The DBacks may want to consider resting their starters in the last spring training game.
   2. RickA. Posted: March 27, 2019 at 02:37 PM (#5825771)
The Yankees also lost Greg Bird two years ago, after fouling a ball off his foot in the last spring training game. Why do teams even play regulars on the last spring training game? Too much risk you'll lose the player before the season even starts, for minimal gain.
   3. Bug Selig Posted: March 27, 2019 at 02:39 PM (#5825775)
Pretty sure the injury ended his season. The headline implies that he could play if not for the pesky repair procedure(s).
   4. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: March 27, 2019 at 02:40 PM (#5825778)
The Yankees also lost Greg Bird two years ago, after fouling a ball off his foot in the last spring training game. Why do teams even play regulars on the last spring training game? Too much risk you'll lose the player before the season even starts, for minimal gain.

To be fair, had Bird sat out the last spring training game it's still quite likely he would have hurt himself flying home from spring training, sleeping wrong the night before opening day, pulling a muscle putting his uniform on for the season opener, or any other of numerous ways.
   5. Rally Posted: March 27, 2019 at 02:43 PM (#5825781)
Injuries can also happen in the second to last spring training game, or 3rd to last. Why play regulars for any of these games?

Honestly though, spring training does not need to be this long. I think most players would be fine and ready for the season if 2 weeks were cut from the schedule.
   6. Blastin Posted: March 27, 2019 at 02:44 PM (#5825782)
Hey now! Greg Bird is only mildly banged up going into opening day this year! Mildly!
   7. Blastin Posted: March 27, 2019 at 02:44 PM (#5825783)
I think most players would be fine and ready for the season if 2 weeks were cut from the schedule.


It's for the pitchers.
   8. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: March 27, 2019 at 02:44 PM (#5825785)

Looking like a good decision to sign Adam Jones...
   9. Man o' Schwar Posted: March 27, 2019 at 02:46 PM (#5825789)
I can't imagine how disheartening this would be as a player, especially after missing most of last year with injuries. He was a 4 WAR player who hit 30 HR with 16 SB in 2017. But now, at some point you get the "injury prone" tag, and being 30 years old and injury-prone in today's market is gonna be a tough sell.

Interesting Souza footnote: he has been part of two different three-team trades. He went from Washington to TB in 2014 as part of a 3-team trade with the Padres, and then from TB to Arizona in 2017 as part of a 3-team trade with the Yankees.
   10. Jose is an Absurd Time Cube Posted: March 27, 2019 at 02:56 PM (#5825793)
Is it just that I'm seeing it more or are players slipping on bases more often nowadays?
   11. jmurph Posted: March 27, 2019 at 03:00 PM (#5825794)
Is it just that I'm seeing it more or are players slipping on bases more often nowadays?

The screamingly obvious solution is ghost men on base.
   12. DCA Posted: March 27, 2019 at 03:01 PM (#5825796)
He was a 4 WAR player who hit 30 HR with 16 SB in 2017. But now, at some point you get the "injury prone" tag, and being 30 years old and injury-prone in today's market is gonna be a tough sell.

He has also been below average (per B-R) every other full/partial season of his career, 4 of 5 total. 30 years old and below-average is worse than 30 years old and injury prone, and will be objectively true in a month when he turns 30.

That said, he's got another year of arb eligibility in 2020 to brighten up his resume before hitting the FA market.
   13. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: March 27, 2019 at 03:16 PM (#5825802)
The screamingly obvious solution is ghost men on base.

Spiderman bases coated in a sticky web-like substance. Manfred should consider it posthaste.
   14. Man o' Schwar Posted: March 27, 2019 at 03:21 PM (#5825806)
Is it just that I'm seeing it more or are players slipping on bases more often nowadays?

I wonder if it's a cleat thing. I have no idea how baseball cleats have changed through the years, but football players are always tweaking their cleats for different reasons. Or maybe they need to make home plate something other than hard, slick plastic (or whatever it is).
   15. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 27, 2019 at 03:24 PM (#5825809)
Expecting people to start to argue that players need not run the bases in 3, 2, 1….

It's past time we just move to a simulation with hologram players.
   16. jmurph Posted: March 27, 2019 at 03:25 PM (#5825813)
It's past time we just move to a simulation with hologram players.

Look it's a pace of play issue. There's no reason to actually have runners or fielders. Pitching machine/simulation screen like those fancy golf simulators. Done.
   17. RickA. Posted: March 27, 2019 at 03:31 PM (#5825818)
Yes, I understand Greg Bird is an injury prone player. So is Souza. I know injuries can happen at any point in spring training or any time during the baseball season. But I just don't see the point of, if they made it almost all the way through spring training healthy, why tempt fate for one more spring training game, especially for injury prone players. They made the opening day roster. There's nothing left to prove by playing them the last day. Why not sit them out and let minor league players play the last game, and at least get the injury prone regulars into the baseball season without risk of injury in a meaningless last game?
   18. . Posted: March 27, 2019 at 03:34 PM (#5825821)
Why do anything, anytime, anywhere that could lead to injury?
   19. Baseballs Most Beloved Figure Posted: March 27, 2019 at 04:00 PM (#5825840)
I've always had an irrational dislike of Souza based on constantly hearing Dwayne Staats saying "Souza Junior" every time he mentioned him during the course of a game as if Souza's dad was also playing.
   20. PreservedFish Posted: March 27, 2019 at 04:03 PM (#5825842)
But I just don't see the point of, if they made it almost all the way through spring training healthy, why tempt fate for one more spring training game, especially for injury prone players. They made the opening day roster. There's nothing left to prove by playing them the last day. Why not sit them out and let minor league players play the last game, and at least get the injury prone regulars into the baseball season without risk of injury in a meaningless last game?


But then you'll say the same thing about the second-to-last meaningless game.
   21. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: March 27, 2019 at 04:10 PM (#5825845)

Looking like a good decision to sign Adam Jones...


Didn't they place Socrates Brito (grade 80 name) on waivers right before Souza got hurt? The Padres just claimed him. Bet they would like to have him back.
   22. Walt Davis Posted: March 27, 2019 at 04:13 PM (#5825846)
He went from Washington to TB in 2014 as part of a 3-team trade with the Padres

Since nobody went from the Nats to the Padres or the Rays to the Nats, this can be considered two separate trades ... the latter, unblievably enough, being the Rays trading Trea Turner and Joe Ross for Souza and Travis Ott.
   23. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: March 27, 2019 at 04:56 PM (#5825874)
####, I saw him play against the Dodgers at Camleback just five days ago. For some reason that makes me extra bummed.
   24. RickA. Posted: March 27, 2019 at 05:20 PM (#5825888)
But then you'll say the same thing about the second-to-last meaningless game.


No, I wouldn't. Just the last game. What's the point of Souza playing it? Or anybody? What if it were Trout? Or Betts? Or Judge? To get one last workout before the season? Teams have an investment to protect and fans to answer to. Would you want to risk losing the franchise player for your team for the season, just because he had to play the last meaningless game in spring training?

Yes, injuries can happen anytime. But, come on, on the last spring training game to lose the whole season?
   25. . Posted: March 27, 2019 at 05:26 PM (#5825891)
What's the point of him playing in the second-to-last exhibition game, just as meaningless?

The "point" is that it's typically considered good preparation for the regular season to get reps right up until the start of the season. There's a danger of injury in literally any kind of non-game preparation and therefore no reason to single out the very last exhibition game for some kind of special treatment.
   26. RickA. Posted: March 27, 2019 at 05:33 PM (#5825895)
So why have I seen teams not play regulars or pull them out early on the last day of the season, if they're guaranteed a playoff spot? Because they don't want to risk injury before the playoffs. How is that different than the last spring training game before the season? It's just as meaningless, if they've already qualified for the post season.
   27. Perry Posted: March 27, 2019 at 06:56 PM (#5825912)
So why have I seen teams not play regulars or pull them out early on the last day of the season, if they're guaranteed a playoff spot? Because they don't want to risk injury before the playoffs.


At the end of a long season, pretty much everybody is already injured/banged up/tired as hell. In that situation, I think they pull them more for a bit of rest than fear of injury. Different at the end of ST.
   28. PreservedFish Posted: March 27, 2019 at 08:26 PM (#5825928)
Rick, at some point baseball players need to practice baseball. Your insistence that it's insane to allow them to play the last game, but reasonable to let them play the penultimate game, is hilariously arbitrary. Let's just pretend that the Diamondbacks may well have played yet another ST game, but decided to cancel it to preserve the health of their players. Poof! Now Souza was actually playing in the second to last meaningless game.
   29. PreservedFish Posted: March 27, 2019 at 08:33 PM (#5825929)
By the way Rick, did you actually watch the video? Souza was jogging across home plate, there was no play anywhere near him, he could have walked. Taking a shower is more dangerous than what he was doing. Getting out of an SUV is more dangerous than what he was doing. Walking up or down stairs is more dangerous than what he was doing. Nothing even remotely athletic was happening. If jogging on a baseball field is considered dangerous then you might as well anesthetize the players between games lest they rupture their knees while making breakfast or leaning over to grab the remote.
   30. Tony S Posted: March 27, 2019 at 08:52 PM (#5825936)
This is a major bummer. Souza is one of my favorite players, thanks to this game.

I was in Minneapolis that weekend and took in that game, my first ever at Target Field. In the bottom of the seventh, Souza comically misplayed a single that led to a Twins' run. Then in the top of the eighth, when Souza came to bat, the Twins showed Souza's big stumble on the jumbatron. Then the camera panned to Souza at the plate, and he was sheepishly shaking his head in semi-embarrassment. The Twins fans gave him a nice ovation for being a good sport.

And then he blasted a homer to left.

It was a nice baseball moment. I've been rooting for Souza ever since.
   31. . Posted: March 27, 2019 at 08:54 PM (#5825937)
He was barely more than jogging and then did kind of a showy, ridiculous semi-stomp down on home plate for literally no reason, after a kind of clumsy unnecessary longish final stride. No one was around him, no throw home was coming.

No idea what he was thinking, no idea what he was doing. I guess maybe he was trying to look "intense" or something, but normally jogging through home was probably the better play there. So weird that guys won't run hard on ground balls and pose at home plate in lieu of running, but then apparently feel the need not to routine jog when routine jogging is precisely what's called for.

It happened in an athletic event, but it was barely even an athletic injury. (And he didn't "slip" on home plate. His leg came down weird because of the off-stride and the stomp and his knee gave.)

Wish him the best in his recovery, if he cares -- but this was a freak event requiring no systemic reaction of any kind.

   32. spycake Posted: March 27, 2019 at 09:13 PM (#5825938)
That leaves Ketel Marte in for the everyday role in center field


Slightly off topic, but why exactly is Ketel Marte in the outfield now?
   33. Walt Davis Posted: March 27, 2019 at 10:51 PM (#5825956)
Slightly off topic, but why exactly is Ketel Marte in the outfield now?

A healthy (?) Lamb and they signed Escobar for 3/$21 added to the uber-slick Ahmed I suppose. Also Wilmer Flores. And a severe lack of good OFs. Granted Escobar might have been a better pick for the IF/OF swingman but I doubt he can handle CF so that would have just led to starting CF Jarrod Dyson.
   34. Walt Davis Posted: March 27, 2019 at 11:02 PM (#5825957)
Further off-topic and not nearly as exciting whether to play the last 17 pitches of the last spring game debate ...

Has Adam Jones been hurt? I see he has just 15 PA this spring (not good ones either).

Jason Heyward: 132/214/184

   35. The Yankee Clapper Posted: March 27, 2019 at 11:21 PM (#5825961)
The highlight of Souza’s Washington Nationals career was his excellent game-ending catch to preserve Jordan Zimmermann’s no-hitter.
   36. RickA. Posted: March 28, 2019 at 09:53 AM (#5826009)
Preserved Fish,

No I didn't see the video. If Souza hurt himself by doing something stupid that's on him then.

I do realize that baseball players need spring training. They need to get their timing down, workout for the long season, get the feel for their pitches, etc. I'm not saying they should cancel spring training. And, yes, if you remove the last game, the previous one is the last game. But I'm just talking about the very last game, not the last week or next to last game or the whole of spring training.

Yes, maybe it is arbitrary what I suggested. I just don't see the point for the last few AB's before the season starts. Is the very last game so important that players perform better in season when playing that game than being held out? I'm sure Souza wishes he were held out that day. Were those last few AB's on the last day of spring training worth losing his whole season? Do you think the Diamondbacks wish they had held him out?

I'm a Yankees fan, and I know I would be pretty upset if Judge was lost for the season on the last day of spring training. I'm sure the Red Sox fans would feel the same for Betts, and the Angels fans the same for Trout, etc. Do the last few AB's in spring training make that much difference for the season that the injury risk is worth it? I'm just talking about the last game of spring training.
   37. PreservedFish Posted: March 28, 2019 at 09:57 AM (#5826012)
Rick, it's not just arbitrary, it's supremely and magnificently arbitrary. It's so arbitrary as to be senseless. If players are going to practice even once, then you are requiring them to participate in a "last meaningless game." If for the final game of spring training teams instead fielded a lineup of local celebrities and old timers, then the second to last game would be the last meaningless game. The existence of a ridiculous exhibition game doesn't somehow make the penultimate game, the one with real players, more acceptable or less risky.

Yes of course Souza wishes he were held out. That's a dumb question. If this happened on opening day, he would also wish that he were held out.
   38. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: March 28, 2019 at 09:59 AM (#5826013)
Pitching machine/simulation screen like those fancy golf simulators. Done.


I think they came up with that 100 years ago.
   39. RickA. Posted: March 28, 2019 at 10:44 AM (#5826036)
I guess we'll have to agree to disagree. I'm just talking about one last chance of injury during spring training. I'm not talking about eliminating games or not scheduling games the last week or not playing during the last week. Just the very last game. Yes, there will always be a last game if you somehow remove the very last game and the second to last game is just as meaningless as the last game. Yes, a player could get hurt during the next to last game or any game in spring training, but why risk him getting hurt playing one last final spring training game in the last game. I know you'll say, why play him the next to last game if he can get hurt and that it is arbitrary, but anything can be arbitrary to an extent. Why is MLB going to impose a 3 batter minimum? Why not two batters, or four batters, or 2 innings, etc. Why are managers only allowed a few challenges, not unlimited challenges? Why 3 strikes and 4 balls? Yes it works well, but it was very arbitrary when first implemented.

I just think it's a shame that a player loses a whole season playing the last game of spring training, when he was all ready to go and didn't need to play to get ready for the season.

In my mind, I guess it's about risk tolerance. Why risk your assets on one last unnecessary activity, that doesn't provide a substantial benefit (or any) for that risk? I'm not suggesting there should be no spring training, nor am I suggesting that a regular should play no games during the last week. I just don't see the benefit for the player or the team to play that last game.
   40. PreservedFish Posted: March 28, 2019 at 10:48 AM (#5826045)
I guess we'll have to agree to disagree.


No, I don't agree to this. I'm right and you're wrong.
   41. RickA. Posted: March 28, 2019 at 10:50 AM (#5826049)
Fine, until your team loses it's star player, right? What is so necessary abut the very last day of spring training?
   42. Greg Pope Posted: March 28, 2019 at 10:54 AM (#5826053)
He was barely more than jogging and then did kind of a showy, ridiculous semi-stomp down on home plate for literally no reason, after a kind of clumsy unnecessary longish final stride.

I just watched the video, and I don't think he really did anything wrong. He was just a half-step off. His normal stride would have taken his next step a foot or so from home plate. So he had a choice. He could do a quick stutter-step or he could stretch out his last step. The kind of decision you make a bunch of times in a game, probably, and don't even think about. He chose to stretch out his last step, and it cost him his season. Nothing you could predict, certainly.
   43. . Posted: March 28, 2019 at 11:04 AM (#5826062)
I just watched the video, and I don't think he really did anything wrong.


He stomped far harder than necessary. There was just no need to come down with that kind of force. Combine that with the too-long stride, and it's not great.

But even all that shouldn't result in a complete knee blow; that's just bad luck.
   44. Man o' Schwar Posted: March 28, 2019 at 11:09 AM (#5826067)
Jason Heyward: 132/214/184

Already in midseason form.
   45. PreservedFish Posted: March 28, 2019 at 11:14 AM (#5826069)
Fine, until your team loses it's star player, right? What is so necessary abut the very last day of spring training?


I'm stunned that you can't grasp the concept here.

If Souza plays even a single game in ST, then he is engaging in a "last meaningless game."
   46. RickA. Posted: March 28, 2019 at 11:19 AM (#5826070)
Well, I'm stunned you ignore the rest of my posts. I've stated multiple times I'm referring to the last scheduled spring training game. He was ready to go. Just one more game. What could it hurt?
   47. PreservedFish Posted: March 28, 2019 at 11:26 AM (#5826075)
Situation 1:

Souza plays a game on March 26.

Situation 2:

Souza plays a game on March 26.
Some random AAA RF plays a game on March 27.

What you're arguing is that situation 1 is unacceptable, and situation 2 is perfectly acceptable. That's insane.
   48. Greg Pope Posted: March 28, 2019 at 11:30 AM (#5826080)
But even all that shouldn't result in a complete knee blow; that's just bad luck.

Agree.
   49. RickA. Posted: March 28, 2019 at 12:03 PM (#5826104)
What I'm arguing is not that Situation 1 is unacceptable or that situation 2 is acceptable
I'm arguing that situation 2 is avoidable and unnecessary.

Situation 3:

Souza plays on March 26
Souza doesn't play on March 27
Starts on Opening Day

Situation 4:
Souza plays on March 26
Souza plays on March 27 and gets hurt, losing the entire season.

Situation 4 which did happen was completely avoidable and unnecessary

Yes, Souza could have gotten hurt on the 26th. You do need some spring training time. But there is little reason to play him on the 27th. Why play him on the last game when there is little benefit to it and some risk? Especially for an injury prone player.
   50. Baldrick Posted: March 28, 2019 at 12:05 PM (#5826106)
Well, I'm stunned you ignore the rest of my posts. I've stated multiple times I'm referring to the last scheduled spring training game. He was ready to go. Just one more game. What could it hurt?

I mean, you can keep posting the same absurd thing over and over and over, but it doesn't make it any more true.
   51. Nasty Nate Posted: March 28, 2019 at 12:08 PM (#5826109)
Why play him on the last game when there is little benefit to it and some risk? Especially for an injury prone player.
You could ask this about every single individual game in spring training.
   52. PreservedFish Posted: March 28, 2019 at 12:12 PM (#5826114)
Rick ... I don't know what to say man. You're wrong, and you don't understand why.
   53. RickA. Posted: March 28, 2019 at 12:33 PM (#5826138)
Nate, yes you could, but I’m not. Just the last scheduled game. How is it insane to hold a player out of 1 game to avoid injury? I know it’s somewhat arbitrary, there is no guarantee he won’t be injured before that, but he successfully made it through almost all of spring training. Why not protect that asset for the 1 game right before the season starts? I’m not suggesting all of spring training, I’m suggesting 1 game, if the player has made it this close to the regular season uninjured.
   54. Nasty Nate Posted: March 28, 2019 at 12:36 PM (#5826140)
What makes the last one more risky than any one of the others?
   55. PreservedFish Posted: March 28, 2019 at 12:37 PM (#5826141)
Wow. Are you for real?
   56. RickA. Posted: March 28, 2019 at 12:53 PM (#5826153)
Nothing does. Except they made it through all the others. I’m talking from the standpoint that spring training is almost over, just one more game.

Never mind. Apparently it’s insane to not play someone for the very last game of spring training if to ensure they don’t get hurt in that one game left before the start of the season.
   57. RickA. Posted: March 28, 2019 at 01:08 PM (#5826164)
Nate, if your on the last day of spring training and haven’t been injured, the last game of spring training is the most risky to you compared to the rest, because they have already passed. But you can be injured by the one game left. Again I’m talking about the team and player position on the last day of spring training. That’s what the Diamondbacks and Souza position was on the last day. The last Unplayed game was the most risky at that point in time.
   58. RickA. Posted: March 28, 2019 at 01:42 PM (#5826210)
Look at it this way. At the start of spring training, which spring training game has the greatest amount of risk to injure a player. None, because the remaining games would all be equally divided. At any number of games > 1 the risk is equal between remaining games.

But on the last day of spring training, which game has the greatest risk of injury? The last game. It has 100% of the risk. On our scenarios above, on the morning of March 27th, that game has 100% of the risk left, because the other games have been successfully played without injury. Every other game had an equal share between remaining games, but on the last day, that game has all the risk.
   59. PreservedFish Posted: March 28, 2019 at 01:47 PM (#5826212)
That comment is like a museum of logical fallacies.
   60. Misirlou gave her his Vincent to ride Posted: March 28, 2019 at 01:49 PM (#5826213)
But on the last day of spring training, which game has the greatest risk of injury? The last game. It has 100% of the risk. On our scenarios above, on the morning of March 27th, that game has 100% of the risk left, because the other games have been successfully played without injury. Every other game had an equal share, but on the last day, that game has all the risk.


if you are going to sit out the last spring training game, then the second to last spring training game has 100% of the risk.
   61. JJ1986 Posted: March 28, 2019 at 01:49 PM (#5826214)
RickA, what is your answer to the Monty Hall problem?
   62. RickA. Posted: March 28, 2019 at 01:55 PM (#5826215)
Fine, I’m assuming they play every game.

But, On the morning of March 27th, which game of spring training posed the most injury risk to Steven Souza, from that point on?
   63. RickA. Posted: March 28, 2019 at 02:09 PM (#5826223)
Yes, the chances of injury risk in spring training is lessened overall because of the games already played. But the last game will always get 100% of the remaining risk on the last day.
   64. PreservedFish Posted: March 28, 2019 at 02:15 PM (#5826226)
Can we invite Rick to a poker game or something?
   65. RickA. Posted: March 28, 2019 at 02:20 PM (#5826231)
I notice no one answered my question.

On the morning of March 27th, which game of spring training posed the most injury risk to Steven Souza, or any other player from that moment on?

Also, I suck at poker because I can't bluff to save my life. :)
   66. RickA. Posted: March 28, 2019 at 02:22 PM (#5826232)
JJ1986, As far as the Monty Hall problem, you switch after he removes the first curtain. You have a 33% chance of winning after you pick, and it's still 33% after he removes a choice. You have a 66% chance of winning by switching.
   67. Misirlou gave her his Vincent to ride Posted: March 28, 2019 at 02:26 PM (#5826236)
I notice no one answered my question.

On the morning of March 27th, which game of spring training posed the most injury risk to Steven Souza, or any other player from that moment on?


That game. What's the point? If, on the morning of the 26th, after having decided to sit out the game on the 27th due to injury risk, which game poses the most injury risk to Steven Souza, or any other player from that moment on?

Your position seems to be 99.9% post-hoc analysis. Had Souza not gotten injured in the last spring training game, would you be posting on the internet about how stupid it was for him to play in the last spring training game because of injury risk? You're like a person who's retirement plan is to buy $1,000 in lottery tickets every month, and then when you win, brag to everybody about how smart you are.
   68. Baldrick Posted: March 28, 2019 at 02:46 PM (#5826260)
Rick seems extremely earnest, but it's getting harder and harder to buy that this isn't a setup.
   69. Misirlou gave her his Vincent to ride Posted: March 28, 2019 at 02:48 PM (#5826262)
Here's something interesting.

I assume this will change Rick's position.
   70. RickA. Posted: March 28, 2019 at 03:00 PM (#5826281)
Why is anyone posting on this thread, other than the fact that Souza got hurt? :)

Yes, I realize where you're going. Keep removing games until there is only one and that one takes 100% of the risk. Why have spring training at all then?. It's a straw man argument.

Whether he plays or not on March 26th is irrelevant. He does need to play a certain number of spring training games to be ready for the season. Pick however many games he needs to play to be ready for the season. Those games have to be played. Maybe it is every game in spring training, though I doubt it, for him to be ready. What that number of games is, I don't know. But I assume it's different for different players. But, seeing as most players don't play every spring training game, I'll assume it's not necessary to play every game.

I'm not saying they shouldn't play any more games than necessary to get ready for the season. But each added game beyond that is an injury risk with little benefit.
   71. Nasty Nate Posted: March 28, 2019 at 03:00 PM (#5826282)
Here's something interesting.

I assume this will change Rick's position.
Hahha so it was the 2nd-to-last game all along?
   72. RickA. Posted: March 28, 2019 at 03:05 PM (#5826285)
Am I missing something? It was the last game. There are no games scheduled on the 27th. Those dates that we were using were from #47 above. I should have checked them before using them.
   73. RickA. Posted: March 28, 2019 at 03:09 PM (#5826288)
Rick seems extremely earnest, but it's getting harder and harder to buy that this isn't a setup.


Personally, I'm enjoying this debate. No setup, just don't see the point of playing the last game.
   74. Misirlou gave her his Vincent to ride Posted: March 28, 2019 at 03:10 PM (#5826293)
Am I missing something?


Yes. Where is Souza's name in that boxscore?
   75. Misirlou gave her his Vincent to ride Posted: March 28, 2019 at 03:15 PM (#5826298)
No setup, just don't see the point of playing the last game.


Then you will be happy to learn that he didn't.
   76. RickA. Posted: March 28, 2019 at 03:15 PM (#5826299)
Ah, I see your point. Maybe he was sitting out :)

Souza not the point though, he is an example, albeit not a good one. The point is playing in the last game. Look at my post in #2.
   77. RickA. Posted: March 28, 2019 at 03:17 PM (#5826301)
Then you will be happy to learn that he didn't.


Of course you assume a risk with every game you play. But why assume it on the very last day.
   78. Baldrick Posted: March 28, 2019 at 03:21 PM (#5826310)
Rick, let's give it one more shot, okay.

Let's imagine that a GM is reading this thread and thinks to himself 'gee, that Rick sure has a great point. Next year, I'm sitting all my guys in the last game. Why take that 100% potential risk thing?'

Okay, well now, the team is obligated to play a last game, but it's not really their last game, because they're not playing any of their real guys. So now it's the second to last game that carries all the potential injury risk. In which case, by your logic, it just makes sense to sit the players. Except now it's the third to last game that carries all the risk. And so on and so on.

Your position would be reasonable if you were saying 'Spring Training is too long, and carries more injury risk than it's worth.' Or if you were simply saying 'every marginal game that a guy plays in Spring Training increases their injury risk, and teams should genuinely assess whether the training value is worth it.' But those arguments are GENERAL claims about injury risk over a course of games. If you would just acknowledge that your weird fixation on 'the last game' is irrelevant, I don't think anyone would be coming at you.
   79. Misirlou gave her his Vincent to ride Posted: March 28, 2019 at 03:25 PM (#5826318)
The point is playing in the last game. Look at my post in #2.


If you don't play the regulars in that last game, then there's little point in playing that last game. So now, what used to be the second to last game becomes the last game.
   80. RickA. Posted: March 28, 2019 at 03:32 PM (#5826325)
Okay, well now, the team is obligated to play a last game, but it's not really their last game, because they're not playing any of their real guys. So now it's the second to last game that carries all the potential injury risk. In which case, by your logic, it just makes sense to sit the players. Except now it's the third to last game that carries all the risk. And so on and so on.


Straw Man argument.

Your position would be reasonable if you were saying 'Spring Training is too long, and carries more injury risk than it's worth.' Or if you were simply saying 'every marginal game that a guy plays in Spring Training increases their injury risk, and teams should genuinely assess whether the training value is worth it.' But those arguments are GENERAL claims about injury risk over a course of games. If you would just acknowledge that your weird fixation on 'the last game' is irrelevant, I don't think anyone would be coming at you.

See my post #70
   81. RickA. Posted: March 28, 2019 at 03:36 PM (#5826329)
And I'm not talking about every regular. Maybe I'm talking about players who you can't afford to lose, or injury prone players. Don't be ridiculous. Of course someone needs to play the last game.
   82. Misirlou gave her his Vincent to ride Posted: March 28, 2019 at 03:41 PM (#5826331)
Maybe I'm talking about players who you can't afford to lose, or injury prone players.


Then you will be happy to learn that Souza didn't play in the last game.
   83. RickA. Posted: March 28, 2019 at 03:50 PM (#5826340)
No, he didn't. But as Baldrick (and I in post 70) said, maybe the Diamondbacks should have figured out the optimal number of games for him to play and restricted him from playing too many additional games.
   84. Misirlou gave her his Vincent to ride Posted: March 28, 2019 at 03:51 PM (#5826341)
Maybe they did, and Monday's game was it.
   85. flournoy Posted: March 28, 2019 at 03:51 PM (#5826344)
Tell us more about how the Diamondbacks should have gone about that accomplishing this.
   86. DL from MN Posted: March 28, 2019 at 03:56 PM (#5826348)
Teams don't usually play the starters the entire last spring training game anyway. They give them a couple plate appearances so they get reps seeing live pitching and then play the backups so those guys get reps with live pitching.

As for why spring training lasts so long - It's always going to last until the end of March because the season starts in April. Teams want players there in February to practice and prepare for the season. I'm becoming more convinced that there are so many spring training games because the teams sell tickets like crazy and they don't have to pay the players.
   87. RickA. Posted: March 28, 2019 at 04:01 PM (#5826354)
Miserlou, maybe. We don't know. :)

Teams don't usually play the starters the entire last spring training game anyway. They give them a couple plate appearances so they get reps seeing live pitching and then play the backups so those guys get reps with live pitching.


True, although I'm sure injury risk does enter into their reasoning somewhere.
   88. RickA. Posted: March 28, 2019 at 04:06 PM (#5826358)
Tell us more about how the Diamondbacks should have gone about that accomplishing this.


Don't know, but I'm sure it would involve asking the player his opinion, looking at his history, asking medical professionals on staff, and some high level evaluation, as well as a risk/benefit analysis. I'm sure it's different for different players, but there must by some variable number of games necessary to get in shape for the season, and the excess is added risk without much benefit.
   89. RickA. Posted: March 28, 2019 at 04:32 PM (#5826371)
Thanks guys, this was fun. I love a good baseball debate. Especially on Opening Day and people don't get upset and keep things in perspective. :)
   90. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: March 28, 2019 at 04:42 PM (#5826376)
The solution to this problem is obvious: make spring training infinitely long.
   91. Baldrick Posted: March 28, 2019 at 05:09 PM (#5826393)
Why do teams even play regulars on the last spring training game?

And I'm not talking about every regular. Maybe I'm talking about players who you can't afford to lose, or injury prone players. Don't be ridiculous. Of course someone needs to play the last game.
   92. RickA. Posted: March 28, 2019 at 07:52 PM (#5826470)
Fine, I’ll concede that some regulars need to play the last game. But I still don’t see why teams can’t determine the optimal number of games a player needs to get ready for the season, and limit the marginal games played by players, especially frequently injured or franchise level players. We have various measures to evaluate players that we didn’t have before, that people never thought of in the past. Why is a determination of an optimal quantity of games needed to prepare for the season so radical that it’s not even worth thinking about? Why should this be the one unknowable that shouldn’t be measured?
   93. RickA. Posted: March 28, 2019 at 07:59 PM (#5826473)
We’ve determined a times through the order penalty for pitchers, couldn’t we determine a point of diminishing returrns for spring training preparation?
   94. Misirlou gave her his Vincent to ride Posted: March 28, 2019 at 08:14 PM (#5826474)
We’ve determined a times through the order penalty for pitchers, couldn’t we determine a point of diminishing returrns for spring training preparation?


There's tons of empirical data to support the former. How would one find objective data to determine the latter?
   95. PreservedFish Posted: March 28, 2019 at 08:37 PM (#5826490)
Why is a determination of an optimal quantity of games needed to prepare for the season so radical that it’s not even worth thinking about?


This has nothing to do with your main argument.
   96. Cleveland (need new name) fan Posted: March 28, 2019 at 09:27 PM (#5826504)
Fine, I’ll concede that some regulars need to play the last game. But I still don’t see why teams can’t determine the optimal number of games a player needs to get ready for the season, and limit the marginal games played by players, especially frequently injured or franchise level players


We know that they plan pitchers innings very carefully. How often do the announcers in early spring training games talk about a pitcher going 1 inning today, pitching 2 innings in 4 days etc. Why do you think that teams don't monitor position players at bats during spring training?

Something more than just your assertation that teams need to better plan spring training is necessary. We read all the time that established players can pretty much dictate their at bats during spring training and get ready as they want.

Some considerations that I think that you are missing:
1. MLB requires a certain number of "regulars" to play in spring training games. They sell tickets, so they want a few name players to appear for at least a couple at bats in each game.
2. The last couple of games of spring training are the only times when all the starters play in the same game. Its also the only time when the players are near regular season form, so this is the only time the team gets a chance to see what their real team looks like. It might give them a chance to make a last minute move based on perceived issues with the team.
3. By the end of spring training, there are just not enough position players around camp to not play starters. Most of the people that won't make the final team have been reassigned. Yes, they bring in minor leaguers to supplement the major league squad, but there is still a limit.
   97. Cleveland (need new name) fan Posted: March 28, 2019 at 09:32 PM (#5826506)
Fine, until your team loses it's star player, right? What is so necessary abut the very last day of spring training?


Well Jose Ramirez got hurt very late in spring training. Yea, it sucks. But Lindor getting hurt in the middle of spring training sucks even worse since his injury is more serious.
   98. Greg Pope Posted: March 28, 2019 at 10:03 PM (#5826521)
Justin Upton got hurt this past Sunday. So we should apparently eliminate regulars from the final 3 spring training games.
   99. base ball chick Posted: March 29, 2019 at 02:47 PM (#5826740)
what i do not understand about this is the solution to the monty hall problem

i have read it 4 times and it still makes no sense

suppose you have to choose from 3 guys - and only one is unmarried. one confesses that he's actually married and takes himself out

so it's not a 50-50 as to which of the remaining 2 guys is married?
   100. Misirlou gave her his Vincent to ride Posted: March 29, 2019 at 03:03 PM (#5826745)
what i do not understand about this is the solution to the monty hall problem

i have read it 4 times and it still makes no sense

suppose you have to choose from 3 guys - and only one is unmarried. one confesses that he's actually married and takes himself out

so it's not a 50-50 as to which of the remaining 2 guys is married?


It is, but the point is, the married guy confesses only after you chose one. Your initial pick was 1 in 3, meaning the two you didn't pick are 2 in 3 combined. The unpicked married guy confessing doesn't change anything. You already know one of them is married, you just don't know which one. Your initial pick is still 1 in 3.

It helps to change the numbers if you are still confused. Let's say you have to pick 1 of 100. There are 99 married guys in the 100. Once you pick, 98 of the remainders confess. That's essentially no new information. You knew there were at least 98 in the remaining 99. You just didn't know which ones. That doesn't make your initial 1% pick now 50%.
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