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Tuesday, April 29, 2014

Did the Cubs cost Matt Garza 30 wins?

Case in point, this quote from Matt Garza, when advising former Cubs teammate Jeff Samardzija: “I told [Samardzija], ‘It doesn’t matter, dude. You play in Chicago. I was there, and I lost 30 wins in three seasons. It’s not your fault. You pitch your way out of there.’”

Garza started a total of 60 games in a Cub uniform, garnering 21 wins.

Chicago Joe Posted: April 29, 2014 at 01:08 PM | 18 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: cubs

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   1. zonk Posted: April 29, 2014 at 01:42 PM (#4696718)
49 starts, 300 IP, and an ERA+ of 113 translate into 45 wins?
   2. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: April 29, 2014 at 02:38 PM (#4696769)
as long as the brewers keep garza focused on pitching and don't enter him in any local math bowls everything should be fine
   3. Nasty Nate Posted: April 29, 2014 at 02:53 PM (#4696790)
49 starts, 300 IP, and an ERA+ of 113 translate into 45 wins?


Never mind RTFA, TF Intro has his Cubs starts and W's right there...
   4. madvillain Posted: April 29, 2014 at 02:57 PM (#4696798)
The Cubs are pretty much the pre-Chris Paul clippers at this point. Nobody wants to play there, nobody expects anything except losing. It will take a real turnaround before FAs want to play there.
   5. McCoy Posted: April 29, 2014 at 03:39 PM (#4696864)
It will take the same thing it always takes and that is money. The Cubs could have a boatload of FA playing for them right now and they don't not because the FA didn't want to play their. But because the Cubs never offered them a contract.
   6. Monty Posted: April 29, 2014 at 04:20 PM (#4696926)
Well...maybe he's saying that he should have had more starts? It's the best I can do.
   7. zonk Posted: April 29, 2014 at 04:25 PM (#4696933)
Never mind RTFA, TF Intro has his Cubs starts and W's right there...


Huh... Turns out BB-Ref's multi-season click-and-concatenate doesn't let you select a partial season in case of a trade...
   8. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: April 29, 2014 at 04:35 PM (#4696943)
Kind of like how people would claim that Clemente prevented hundreds of runs with his arm.
   9. Lyford Posted: April 29, 2014 at 04:46 PM (#4696951)

I remember someone talking once about how many HR Candlestick cost Willie Mays, and he would have passed Ruth if he hadn't played his home games there. Turns out that he averaged 1 HR per every 15 at-bats in Candlestick and 1 HR per every 17.58 at-bats everywhere else...
   10. PreservedFish Posted: April 29, 2014 at 05:07 PM (#4696977)
Rey Ordonez saves a run every game.
   11. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: April 29, 2014 at 05:08 PM (#4696980)
lyford

i once had this discussion with a guy from espn. bob pickles or some such. when i shared that mays during his time in san fran had homered about the same as at home as on the road his response was, and i kid you not, that 'this shows how great mays was that he was able to maintain that performance despite the conditions'

he just worked on the presumption that candlestick was an impossible homer park.

very arrogant guy. and a yankee fan.

   12. madvillain Posted: April 29, 2014 at 05:19 PM (#4696990)
It will take the same thing it always takes and that is money. The Cubs could have a boatload of FA playing for them right now and they don't not because the FA didn't want to play their. But because the Cubs never offered them a contract.


Well yes, but all other things are not equal, the Cubs will have to pay a premium. If a ballplayer gets identical offers from the Cubs and another team he's probably picking the other team.

Wrigley has awful facilities, which seems to be a big deal to pro athletes (a PS4 and Beats headphones in every locker), you have to play a lot of day games, which players don't seem to like, and you have the pressure and losing environment.

Now, things can change quickly, but as currently setup, not many FA are going to pick the Cubs and the Cubs will need to pay a premium to get them.
   13. Walt Davis Posted: April 29, 2014 at 05:21 PM (#4696992)
Not all arrogant guys are Yankees fans but all Yankee fans ...

Yeah, best I can do for Garza is that maybe he also blames the Cubs for his injury.

But mainly it only seemed like Marmol blew 30 saves a year.

Anyway, he managed to go three games over 500 on teams that were 90 games under 500 ... I have zero complaints about the job Garza did as a Cub.
   14. BDC Posted: April 29, 2014 at 05:33 PM (#4697002)
Just glancing at Garza's B-Ref pages, it does seem like the Cubs hurt him a bit in terms of defensive support, and a bit more in terms of offensive support, compared to an average, let alone a good, team. So how many wins did they cost him, compared to continuing to pitch for Tampa Bay, or going directly to Texas in 2011? Five or six at most? As Walt notes, at least it's not like he was hurting the Cubs while claiming the Cubs hurt him.
   15. McCoy Posted: April 29, 2014 at 05:37 PM (#4697008)
Well yes, but all other things are not equal, the Cubs will have to pay a premium. If a ballplayer gets identical offers from the Cubs and another team he's probably picking the other team.

This can be said about practically every single team in regards to every single player. Every team pays a premium to get top tier FA players and every team has to pay a good chunk of money for mid tier talent as well.

If Cano had gotten an offer from the Cubs that was the same as the mariners his agent would have told both teams that he need to beat the other offer and when one team did that he would have gone to the other team and asked them to top that one. Rinse and repeat.
   16. McCoy Posted: April 29, 2014 at 05:41 PM (#4697011)
As Walt notes, at least it's not like he was hurting the Cubs while claiming the Cubs hurt him

18 starts in 2012. That hurt. Especially since the Cubs gave up two blue chippers for his measly production.
   17. SteveM. Posted: April 29, 2014 at 08:18 PM (#4697083)
With the drama surrounding him for the last two years (will he be traded? and to whom?) and the craptastic lineups behind him while in Chicago, I don't blame Garza for being a little bitter. The management hasn't seemed like they give a damn to win at the MLB level so it had to seem like salvation for Garza to escape. The Cubs are the Astros with a nicer park and less humid hometown.
   18. Walt Davis Posted: April 30, 2014 at 01:40 AM (#4697271)
It's not NY or LA but I have a hard time believing premier FAs would every shy away from a Cub team offering them what they want. Maybe the last few years have changed things, but historically opposing players seemed to love playing at Wrigley, crappy locker rooms and all. The fans will of course love you as long as you don't suck and I'm sure that will continue if the current horrible run doesn't drive everybody away. Chicago's a great town, WGN still gets plenty of games out on an essentially national broadcast and Chicago offers plenty of promo opportunities.

The notion that a player would rather go to Seattle or Detroit, much less KC or Milwaukee, for an equal amount of money strikes me as quite unlikely.

It's all a rather moot point -- in nearly 40 years of FA I think the Cubs have only once seriously gone after a "top" FA and that was Soriano. I'll worry about the premium the Cubs might have to pay for Trout right after I'm convinced the Cubs intend to make a serious offer to Trout.

18 starts in 2012. That hurt. Especially since the Cubs gave up two blue chippers for his measly production.

Pitchers get hurt. 60 starts in 2.6 seasons is all you should expect. 5.5 WAR for $25 M is just fine.

Lee was a good prospect (BA put him top 100) at the time of the trade but not really a blue-chipper. A good season in 2011 moved him up to the mid-40s but he was terrible in 2012, still rated top 100 by BA and BPro for no good reason heading into 2013, got hurt and played in only 5 games so far this year.

Archer has been good so far and they've bought out his 6 years for $25.5 M. That makes it a pretty standard "I want 3 years of production now for a potential 6 years of production in some fairly distant future" trade. Given you argued the 2011 and 2012 Cubs could have had a shot at a 500 season, it seems like the sort of move you would endorse.

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