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Wednesday, February 03, 2010

Dilbeck: Can Manny Ramirez still be Manny Ramirez?

Speaking of “an impossible act to follow”...Steve Dilbeck is the new L.A. Times Dodgers blogger.

Torre blamed Manny’s great drop-off last season on the 50-game suspension he served for violating baseball’s drug policy. Prior to the suspension, Manny was batting .348 with six home runs and 20 RBI in 92 at-bats. After the suspension, he hit .270 with 13 homers and 43 RBI in 260 at-bats.

So his average was up pre-suspension, but the power was never really there. Not Manny power.

When Manny showed up in L.A. in the middle of 2008, he became the single most electrifying position player in L.A. Dodgers history. Every at-bat was an event. The stadium rippled with anticipation. And it seemed more often than not that he delivered.

Those were some crazy dramatics, and perhaps an impossible act to follow. Still, it was hard to imagine he’d go from a once-in-a-lifetime player to just another good one in the span of a few months.

Manny will turn 38 in May. Does he have another monster year left? It’s a contract season for him, so he has all the financial motivation. After last year, he has all the psychological motivation.

In a National League overcome by parity, one dynamic player can elevate a good team. And for the Dodgers, that’s Manny.

Repoz Posted: February 03, 2010 at 08:10 PM | 19 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: dodgers, steroids

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1. Hang down your head, Tom Foley Posted: February 03, 2010 at 08:53 PM (#3453512)

So his average was up pre-suspension, but the power was never really there. Not Manny power.

It's only 92 at bats, but his pre-suspension home run rate was right about where it always is, and his slugging was higher.

2. Willie Mayspedes Posted: February 03, 2010 at 08:59 PM (#3453515)

Dilbeck: Can Manny Ramirez still be Manny Ramirez?

Towlie is hoping the visits from Mr Hanky are over.

3. Moneyball can't buy you love (Joey B.) Posted: February 03, 2010 at 09:01 PM (#3453520)

Still, it was hard to imagine he’d go from a once-in-a-lifetime player to just another good one in the span of a few months.

Hard for some to imagine perhaps, but not for me.

4. Into the Void Posted: February 03, 2010 at 09:03 PM (#3453522)

I think he'll have a breakout year now that he's not in Juan Pierre's shadow.

5. The Good Face Posted: February 03, 2010 at 09:05 PM (#3453523)

Still, it was hard to imagine he’d go from a once-in-a-lifetime player to just another good one in the span of a few months.

Yes, who could possibly imagine a 37 year old hitter's performance would decline from otherworldly to just "good". Truly an unimaginable course of events.

6. Tripon Posted: February 03, 2010 at 09:14 PM (#3453534)

Yes, who could possibly imagine a 37 year old hitter's performance would decline from otherworldly to just "good". Truly an unimaginable course of events.

In the same season? After he was supposedly even better after the suspension? In a vacuum, it might make you question what exactly happened with him.

Edit: Also, I think Dilbeck is going with, "NO. ITS NOT THE FREAKING STEROIDS" argument here that was pretty prevalent in mainstream baseball.

7. Jose Can You Seabiscuit Posted: February 03, 2010 at 09:17 PM (#3453536)

It wasn't the span of a few months, it had been going on for a couple of years. 2007 and the Boston portion of 2008 represented his worst OPS since 1994. He wasn't terrible by any stretch of the imagination but he also was no longer the 1st ballot, no brainer Hall of Fame hitter he had been a couple of years before.

8. The Nightman Cometh Posted: February 03, 2010 at 09:54 PM (#3453561)

Ramirez 2009: 155 OPS+
Ramirez career: 155 OPS+

9. Rodder Posted: February 03, 2010 at 10:10 PM (#3453569)

Ramirez 2009: 155 OPS+
Ramirez career: 155 OPS+

Ramirez career: 1.002 OPS
Ramirez 2009 OPS (pre-suspension) - 1.133
Ramirez 2009 OPS (post-suspension) - .881

10. akrasian Posted: February 03, 2010 at 10:20 PM (#3453573)

Manny Ramirez was hit on the hand by a pitch on July 22, and it noticeably affected him the rest of the season. Just in July AFTER returning from the suspension -
Before HBP - .347 batting average; .694 slugging
After HBP - .167 batting average; .233 slugging.

Apparently his hand gradually felt better, but his hitting was still out of whack after that.

Was it age that affected him? Possibly a factor.

Was it going off of steroids that affected him? Possibly a factor.

Was it getting injured that threw him off? Probably one of, if not the only, factor(s).

11. Sleepy supports unauthorized rambling Posted: February 03, 2010 at 10:26 PM (#3453576)

Ramirez triples, career: 20 (average of 1.17 per year)
Ramirez triples before the suspension: 0
Ramirez triples after the suspension: 2

clearly being suspended makes 37 year old hitters faster...

12. The Good Face Posted: February 03, 2010 at 10:41 PM (#3453585)

In the same season? After he was supposedly even better after the suspension? In a vacuum, it might make you question what exactly happened with him.

Of course in the same season. Do you honestly believe that hitters can only decline during the off season?

Considering the number of PAs involved, the variation in his performance could easily just be, well, random variation. Which is why the article is so stupid on several levels.

13. phredbird

Posted: February 03, 2010 at 10:55 PM (#3453596)

the only thing that's going to begin to answer the questions is a full season's performance, and even then there'll be enough unknowables to keep the debate going. myself, i just hope he hits a TON cuz i'm going to some GAMES!!! PLEASE GET HERE SOON, BASEBALL!!!!11!1!111!!!

14. Barnaby Jones Posted: February 03, 2010 at 11:06 PM (#3453602)

haha "Dilbeck."

15. Cris E Posted: February 03, 2010 at 11:13 PM (#3453612)

Manny Ramirez was hit on the hand by a pitch on July 22, and it noticeably affected him the rest of the season.

And that ball was dipped in Sdiorets and sprinkled in kryptonite, rendering Manny MORTAL!!!

Ramirez career: 1.002 OPS
Ramirez (pre-37) - Really good
Ramirez (post-37) - Pretty good, but not Really good

Hmmm.

EDIT: Lest I appear to mock, the HBP sounds relevant and getting old sounds relevant and most other arm-waving sounds suspect.

16. Sleepy supports unauthorized rambling Posted: February 03, 2010 at 11:17 PM (#3453613)

Considering the number of PAs involved, the variation in his performance could easily just be, well, random variation. Which is why the article is so stupid on several levels.

Indeed. for instance, the top 5 April OPS's in all of baseball in 2009 were, in order: Cantu, Youkilis, Ibanez, Ramirez, A. Gonzalez.

Jorge Cantu, first 118 PA's of 2009: .937 OPS (1.222 in April)
Jorge Cantu, next 525 PA's of 2009: .756 OPS

Kevin Youkilis, first 118 PAs of 2009: 1.221 OPS
Kevin Youkilis, next 470 PA's of 2009: .900 OPS

Raul Ibanez, first 120 PA's of 2009: 1.060 OPS
Raul Ibanez, next 455 PA's of 2009: .855 OPS

Manny Ramirez, first 120 PA's of 2009: 1.133 OPS
Manny Ramirez, next 331 PA's of 2009: .881 OPS

Adrian Gonzalez, first 120 PA's of 2009: 1.025 OPS
Adrian Gonzalez, next 561 PA's of 2009: .943 OPS

Every single one regressed a ton with a larger sample size.

17. Walt Davis Posted: February 03, 2010 at 11:48 PM (#3453627)

Ramirez career: 1.002 OPS
Ramirez 2009 OPS (pre-suspension) - 1.133
Ramirez 2009 OPS (post-suspension) - .881

Alternatively:

Manny 2007 OPS: 881
Manny 2008 OPS, Boston: 926
Manny 2008 OPS, LA: 1232
Manny 2009 OPS (pre-suspension): 1133
Manny 2009 OPS (post-suspension): 881

So for all of 2007, the first 4 months of 2008 and the last 3 months of 2009, Manny was basically the same hitter. For the last 2 months of 2008 and the first month of 2009, he went absolutely nuts.

Obviously it was the 13 months of consistent performance that is out of whack!!

It's only 92 at bats, but his pre-suspension home run rate was right about where it always is, and his slugging was higher.

Your point still holds in this particular case but, in the more general case, SLG doesn't tell you "power", ISO (SLG - BA) tells you power. Ichiro has had a season in which he "slugged" better than 450 with fewer than 60 extra bases. (SLG is more "total value of BA and power".)

18. Buzzards Bay Posted: February 04, 2010 at 05:02 AM (#3453759)

the subtext to this article
is the
unknown
from "the single most electrifying position player in L.A.Dodger history"
to the land of
"what about Mike Lum"

(the sincere attempts at locating sabr stuff.........a gust and a gale)

19. dejarouehg Posted: February 04, 2010 at 06:05 AM (#3453781)

Maybe the "drop-off" was b/c he had a bad pregnancy.

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Dilbeck: Can Manny Ramirez still be Manny Ramirez?

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