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Monday, October 08, 2012
Nationals (98-64) @ Cardinals (88-74), 4.30pm
WSN: Jordan Zimmerman (26, RHP, 12-8, 2.94)
STL: Jaime Garcia (26, LHP, 7-7, 3.92)
Yankees (95-67) @ Orioles (93-69), 8.00pm
NYY: Andy Pettitte (40, LHP, 5-4, 2.87)
BAL: Wei-Yin Chen (27, LHP, 12-11, 4.02)
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EDIT: NLDS/ALDS
The Tigers, on the other hand, are now willing to fully embrace this stat.
I think both teams are cooked if they lose but I think Baltimore has a better chance of survival than the Cards if that happens. Going to the Bronx is no easy feat but I think Kuroda and Hughes are both dicey enough that I can see them pitching stinkers setting up a one game situation. Obviously CC is a nice ace in the hole for New York but one game is one game. I also think the Orioles' bullpen depth is an edge that increases as the series progresses.
But obviously the Yankees are in great shape with a win tonight.
On the other hand, if Baltimore is tied or leading after 3 innings of this one, I think their chances are very good. And if they win tonight, and then have, what -- Gonzalez, Tillman, Hammel for the last three? Or Gonzalez, Saunders, Hammel? Either way it's not a bad matchup against the back half of New York's rotation.
8 pm ET is the latest afternoon game I can ever recall.
Career at home: OPS vs of .622, vs. .760 on the road.
1.178 WHIP at home, 1.498 on the road.
Pretty much every single stat is significantly better for Garcia at home vs. on the road.
As a Cardinal fan, I'm just glad he's pitching Game 2 instead of Game 3.
16, out of what will be 43 career postseason starts. That seems like a whole lot.
The Game 2's: The ALDS every year from '95 to '03, the '01 WS, the '03 ALCS and WS, the '05 WS (for Houston), the '07 ALDS, the '10 ALDS, and this one.
What is the evidence for this? (Not disagreeing, just wondering what you base that on.)
That was by design.
TBS - the shadows are your fault, since you picked the game time, so stop hyping them.
I'm not even going to bother analyzing how dumb that is (not that they never do, but if you had to pick a team to exemplify choking, that's not the team you'd pick).
But it got me thinking about how I define "choking." A caveat: I don't think, at all, that choking within a game leads you to lose the next one or some such. If Texas gets a gem in game 7 last year, game 6 is just an exciting footnote. I'm no momentumphile.
I just wanted to ponder, as the day's action gets started.
My idea is this: I think you can say a team choked away a series if they had more than one chance to eliminate the other team and fail to do so. It doesn't mean their brains froze or whatever - might have just been beaten a few times in a row. But when you have that chance you have to capitalize, I figure.
Within a game, I'd say you'd have to be leading by two more runs than innings remaining (ie you'd need two bloops and a blast to tie if it's the ninth). Or if you're up by more than four runs at any point (since that's just a big lead you should hold).
There are other kinds of this (making the wrong decision, throwing to the wrong base, managers overdoing matchups like Scrabble yesterday, etc).
With all this said, most of the times when teams lose, it's more because the other team beat 'em and less because they blew it. But something like this is probably how I'd classify something as choking. I wrote this on the fly, obviously, so it's just some jotted-down thoughts. I do wonder what you all might have to say (before there's a chance for any team to choke tonight, heh).
Mostly my eyes, by which I rate Motte, Boggs, Lynn, Rosenthal, Mujica, and Salas as a clearly superior option, no matter the hitter, to Scrabble.
OK, so that's only six options, not seven. But the so-called stats (in addition to my eyse) back this up as well.
My within a game rule is roughly "lead = innings left + 1" is the point I'd call a comfortable lead and by extension, a "choke" within the framework of what you are describing. In other words if I go to the 7th with a 4 run lead I should feel highly confident.
That follows my thought process, although if you get two outs in the ninth at any point with the lead and end up losing the game, that is also a choke.
My eyes say Salas is better, but the numbers haven't been kind to Salas this year.
Agreed. Rangers did a very good job of this last year.
I would prefer to see neither Salas nor Scrabs in an important situation.
If I have to hear another conversation about shadows I'm going to do something unkind to someone.
What kills me about it is that while I've heard it discussed my whole life I thought TBS had some of the best replays I've ever seen demonstrating the effect yesterday. If they had left it there it would have been fine. Instead they just pounded it into the ground.
Hopefully TLR has called Matheny and beaten it into his head that in the post season, you do not use your lower level pitchers except when the game is already decided or in extra innings.
Strange thing to say after 1 game.
edit: Oops, I didn't realize today's game had started already.
retractable roof stadiums throw even worse shadows
miller park on a sunny day has all kinds of shadows
Bolt them shut! Buy curtains!
Apparently the 3rd base coach didn't get the memo that this is Desmond's series.
EDIT: Do outfielders have a chance to peak at the 3B coach as they field hits? Just thinking possibly that's why Beltran thought he wouldn't be going.
I guess. this made no sense. Unless Beltran is a modern day Joe Jackson.
Lynn is going in, apparently.
obviously the post season is causing him to choke, as he treated Cardinal pitching as if it was batting practice in the regular season. :)
Damned
Umpire.
That was unexpected.
It's bothering Garcia.
Derek Jeter SS
Ichiro Suzuki LF
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Robinson Cano 2B
Nick Swisher RF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Russell Martin C
Curtis Granderson CF
Eduardo Nunez DH
LHP Andy Pettitte
Damned
Umpire.
Freese at bat where the first three pitches were all in TBS's K-Zone and were all called balls?
Oh wait, Matheny did the same thing yesterday because Skip's a veteran.
No one cares about the B game :)
Shadows too. Need a shadow-indicator in the app.
This is... weird.
Too early to burn Carpenter.
Maybe next time he shouldn't walk three guys, run five 3-2 counts and throw 50+ pitches in the first two innings while putting his team in a hole in a pretty-much must-win game.
It's not about space.
It would be crazy not to pull Garcia, he is walking a very narrow tightrope and already got burned once.
He more or less met my expectation. A ground out scoring the run in from third was about what to expect, for a .270 hitter who strikes out about 15% of the time.
Are you gonna do this all post-season?
I wouldn't say it's crazy not to pull him, pitchers often times settle down as the game progress's, especially with the advantage of a lead. I probably would have pulled him if I had both Lynn/Kelly on the bench, but I don't think it's a no brainer.
I expected a GIDP...
Your a pessimist who doesn't like Schumaker. :)
Yes. I think those are both justified.
One more.
Yep, nothing against Garcia, but he was nibbling too much.
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