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Monday, October 08, 2012

Division Series Day Three OMNICHATTER

Nationals (98-64) @ Cardinals (88-74), 4.30pm
  WSN: Jordan Zimmerman (26, RHP, 12-8, 2.94)
  STL: Jaime Garcia (26, LHP, 7-7, 3.92)

Yankees (95-67) @ Orioles (93-69), 8.00pm
  NYY: Andy Pettitte (40, LHP, 5-4, 2.87)
  BAL: Wei-Yin Chen (27, LHP, 12-11, 4.02)

fra paolo Posted: October 08, 2012 at 02:35 PM | 537 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: alds, cardinals, media, nationals, nlds, orioles, playoffs, tbs, yankees

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   1. esseff Posted: October 08, 2012 at 03:22 PM (#4259288)
Road teams are 6-2 so far in the playoffs. Or 4-2, if you look only at the Division Series, where there has been concern over HFA teams playing the first two on the road. Those numbers are, of course, little consolation to the A's, who have the two road losses.
   2. esseff Posted: October 08, 2012 at 03:31 PM (#4259296)
Anyhoo, St.L-Wash Game 2 lineups appear identical to Game 1, except for the pitchers, Zimmermann and Garcia
   3. Joey B. is being stalked by a (Gonfa) loon Posted: October 08, 2012 at 03:33 PM (#4259298)
Must-win games for St. Louis and Baltimore today? I know that from a purely literal standpoint the answer is "no", but I say that the real answer in both cases is "yes".
   4. salvomania Posted: October 08, 2012 at 03:36 PM (#4259302)
Birds---both of them---need to win to make this a fun and memorable NLDS.

EDIT: NLDS/ALDS
   5. salvomania Posted: October 08, 2012 at 03:37 PM (#4259303)
I want Matheny to understand that even taking into account handedness, Scrabble is the 7th-best reliever on his staff, stuff-wise.
   6. JL Posted: October 08, 2012 at 03:39 PM (#4259306)
Road teams are 6-2 so far in the playoffs. Or 4-2, if you look only at the Division Series, where there has been concern over HFA teams playing the first two on the road. Those numbers are, of course, little consolation to the A's, who have the two road losses.


The Tigers, on the other hand, are now willing to fully embrace this stat.
   7. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: October 08, 2012 at 03:41 PM (#4259311)
Must-win games for St. Louis and Baltimore today? I know that from a purely literal standpoint the answer is "no", but I say that the real answer in both cases is "yes".


I think both teams are cooked if they lose but I think Baltimore has a better chance of survival than the Cards if that happens. Going to the Bronx is no easy feat but I think Kuroda and Hughes are both dicey enough that I can see them pitching stinkers setting up a one game situation. Obviously CC is a nice ace in the hole for New York but one game is one game. I also think the Orioles' bullpen depth is an edge that increases as the series progresses.

But obviously the Yankees are in great shape with a win tonight.
   8. escabeche Posted: October 08, 2012 at 03:53 PM (#4259329)
Chen's start is the toughest one for Baltimore to win, I think; he struggled at the end of the season and he's very vulnerable to the HR, making him a bad matchup for NYY. What's worse, his failure mode is to come in and be bad right away (5.91 first inning ERA on the year). So if we get bad Chen tonight, there's not going to be time for Showalter to hook him before things get out of hand.

On the other hand, if Baltimore is tied or leading after 3 innings of this one, I think their chances are very good. And if they win tonight, and then have, what -- Gonzalez, Tillman, Hammel for the last three? Or Gonzalez, Saunders, Hammel? Either way it's not a bad matchup against the back half of New York's rotation.

   9. TomH Posted: October 08, 2012 at 03:57 PM (#4259334)
I like the O's chances tonight more than StL. Pettite @ Camden yards is not as scary as facing Zimmerman. My guess at Andy's "true unknown" ERA in road games with the Yankee defense is more like 4. I'd predict a high-scoring game except that it is gonna be cold (ball no carry) and late afternoon (me no see ball well to hit).
   10. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: October 08, 2012 at 03:58 PM (#4259335)
No no no no!!! No more talk about the @#&$*()^! shadows!!!!
   11. SG Posted: October 08, 2012 at 04:05 PM (#4259345)
I'd predict a high-scoring game except that it is gonna be cold (ball no carry) and late afternoon (me no see ball well to hit).


8 pm ET is the latest afternoon game I can ever recall.
   12. salvomania Posted: October 08, 2012 at 04:15 PM (#4259351)
Jaime Garcia has ridiculous, year-in year-out splits for Home vs, Road, with his home stats being ace-worthy and his road stats being not so good.

Career at home: OPS vs of .622, vs. .760 on the road.

1.178 WHIP at home, 1.498 on the road.

Pretty much every single stat is significantly better for Garcia at home vs. on the road.

As a Cardinal fan, I'm just glad he's pitching Game 2 instead of Game 3.
   13. Nasty Nate Posted: October 08, 2012 at 04:18 PM (#4259357)
How many game 2 starts will this be for Pettitte?
   14. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: October 08, 2012 at 04:19 PM (#4259361)
How many game 2 starts will this be for Pettitte?

16, out of what will be 43 career postseason starts. That seems like a whole lot.

The Game 2's: The ALDS every year from '95 to '03, the '01 WS, the '03 ALCS and WS, the '05 WS (for Houston), the '07 ALDS, the '10 ALDS, and this one.
   15. GuyM Posted: October 08, 2012 at 04:20 PM (#4259363)
I want Matheny to understand that even taking into account handedness, Scrabble is the 7th-best reliever on his staff, stuff-wise.

What is the evidence for this? (Not disagreeing, just wondering what you base that on.)
   16. cardsfanboy Posted: October 08, 2012 at 04:20 PM (#4259364)
As a Cardinal fan, I'm just glad he's pitching Game 2 instead of Game 3.


That was by design.
   17. Best Regards, President of Comfort Posted: October 08, 2012 at 04:32 PM (#4259375)
Shadows already...
   18. Guts Posted: October 08, 2012 at 04:36 PM (#4259380)
Let's get this over with.

TBS - the shadows are your fault, since you picked the game time, so stop hyping them.
   19. Blastin Posted: October 08, 2012 at 04:37 PM (#4259381)
So, here's something I was mulling over. A silly friend of a friend wrote that the Yankees were going to "choke" this postseason like they "do every year."

I'm not even going to bother analyzing how dumb that is (not that they never do, but if you had to pick a team to exemplify choking, that's not the team you'd pick).

But it got me thinking about how I define "choking." A caveat: I don't think, at all, that choking within a game leads you to lose the next one or some such. If Texas gets a gem in game 7 last year, game 6 is just an exciting footnote. I'm no momentumphile.

I just wanted to ponder, as the day's action gets started.

My idea is this: I think you can say a team choked away a series if they had more than one chance to eliminate the other team and fail to do so. It doesn't mean their brains froze or whatever - might have just been beaten a few times in a row. But when you have that chance you have to capitalize, I figure.

Within a game, I'd say you'd have to be leading by two more runs than innings remaining (ie you'd need two bloops and a blast to tie if it's the ninth). Or if you're up by more than four runs at any point (since that's just a big lead you should hold).

There are other kinds of this (making the wrong decision, throwing to the wrong base, managers overdoing matchups like Scrabble yesterday, etc).



With all this said, most of the times when teams lose, it's more because the other team beat 'em and less because they blew it. But something like this is probably how I'd classify something as choking. I wrote this on the fly, obviously, so it's just some jotted-down thoughts. I do wonder what you all might have to say (before there's a chance for any team to choke tonight, heh).
   20. salvomania Posted: October 08, 2012 at 04:43 PM (#4259389)
What is the evidence for this?


Mostly my eyes, by which I rate Motte, Boggs, Lynn, Rosenthal, Mujica, and Salas as a clearly superior option, no matter the hitter, to Scrabble.

OK, so that's only six options, not seven. But the so-called stats (in addition to my eyse) back this up as well.
   21. esseff Posted: October 08, 2012 at 04:43 PM (#4259390)
Shake a leg, Jaime.
   22. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: October 08, 2012 at 04:44 PM (#4259391)
Within a game, I'd say you'd have to be leading by two more runs than innings remaining (ie you'd need two bloops and a blast to tie if it's the ninth). Or if you're up by more than four runs at any point (since that's just a big lead you should hold).


My within a game rule is roughly "lead = innings left + 1" is the point I'd call a comfortable lead and by extension, a "choke" within the framework of what you are describing. In other words if I go to the 7th with a 4 run lead I should feel highly confident.
   23. Blastin Posted: October 08, 2012 at 04:45 PM (#4259393)
I certainly do with that lead. I suppose I made it one run wider in my framework to make the definition more stringent.
   24. esseff Posted: October 08, 2012 at 04:49 PM (#4259395)
Now, stop nibbling.
   25. Guts Posted: October 08, 2012 at 04:50 PM (#4259397)
Jaime looks like he is about to go full Gio here. Not sure I can watch him walk 10 guys.
   26. cardsfanboy Posted: October 08, 2012 at 04:51 PM (#4259398)
My within a game rule is roughly "lead = innings left + 1" is the point I'd call a comfortable lead and by extension, a "choke" within the framework of what you are describing. In other words if I go to the 7th with a 4 run lead I should feel highly confident.


That follows my thought process, although if you get two outs in the ninth at any point with the lead and end up losing the game, that is also a choke.
   27. cardsfanboy Posted: October 08, 2012 at 04:52 PM (#4259401)
Mostly my eyes, by which I rate Motte, Boggs, Lynn, Rosenthal, Mujica, and Salas as a clearly superior option, no matter the hitter, to Scrabble.


My eyes say Salas is better, but the numbers haven't been kind to Salas this year.
   28. Blastin Posted: October 08, 2012 at 04:53 PM (#4259403)
That follows my thought process, although if you get two outs in the ninth at any point with the lead and end up losing the game, that is also a choke.


Agreed. Rangers did a very good job of this last year.
   29. esseff Posted: October 08, 2012 at 04:53 PM (#4259404)
Swinging from the heels on 0-2.
   30. Guts Posted: October 08, 2012 at 04:54 PM (#4259405)
My eyes say Salas is better, but the numbers haven't been kind to Salas this year.

I would prefer to see neither Salas nor Scrabs in an important situation.
   31. Greg K Posted: October 08, 2012 at 04:56 PM (#4259407)
Can MLB please institute a mandatory dome policy?

If I have to hear another conversation about shadows I'm going to do something unkind to someone.
   32. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: October 08, 2012 at 04:59 PM (#4259409)
If I have to hear another conversation about shadows I'm going to do something unkind to someone.


What kills me about it is that while I've heard it discussed my whole life I thought TBS had some of the best replays I've ever seen demonstrating the effect yesterday. If they had left it there it would have been fine. Instead they just pounded it into the ground.
   33. cardsfanboy Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:00 PM (#4259410)
I would prefer to see neither Salas nor Scrabs in an important situation.


Hopefully TLR has called Matheny and beaten it into his head that in the post season, you do not use your lower level pitchers except when the game is already decided or in extra innings.
   34. Joey B. is being stalked by a (Gonfa) loon Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:00 PM (#4259411)
Desmond having a hell of a series so far.
   35. Guts Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:04 PM (#4259415)
3 walks, 3 outs. Jaime doesn't have it.
   36. Misirlou is on hiding to nowhere Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:05 PM (#4259416)
Desmond having a hell of a series so far.


Strange thing to say after 1 game.

edit: Oops, I didn't realize today's game had started already.
   37. TomH Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:05 PM (#4259417)
duh.... I swapped the game times in my head.
   38. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:07 PM (#4259418)
greg

retractable roof stadiums throw even worse shadows

miller park on a sunny day has all kinds of shadows
   39. cardsfanboy Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:07 PM (#4259419)
Garcia isn't going to last long for this game. And we don't have Lynn on the bench.. Guess we need to get Kelly to warm up in a hurry.
   40. esseff Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:07 PM (#4259420)
Thanks, Zuk.
   41. cardsfanboy Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:08 PM (#4259421)
You have to be kidding me.
   42. Joey B. is being stalked by a (Gonfa) loon Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:08 PM (#4259422)
Z2N!!
   43. Guts Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:09 PM (#4259423)
Wow, wtf was that. Beltran was lazy there, assumed Desmond would be scared of him.

   44. Greg K Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:09 PM (#4259424)
retractable roof stadiums throw even worse shadows

Bolt them shut! Buy curtains!

Apparently the 3rd base coach didn't get the memo that this is Desmond's series.

EDIT: Do outfielders have a chance to peak at the 3B coach as they field hits? Just thinking possibly that's why Beltran thought he wouldn't be going.
   45. cardsfanboy Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:10 PM (#4259427)
Wow, wtf was that. Beltran was lazy there, assumed Desmond would be scared of him.


I guess. this made no sense. Unless Beltran is a modern day Joe Jackson.
   46. Guts Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:11 PM (#4259428)
Pull Garcia now, let's not walk anymore guys. Put Kelly in. This series is probably lost already, but you need to try.

Lynn is going in, apparently.
   47. esseff Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:12 PM (#4259429)
Agree with #43. Beltran assumed that because he was playing shallow, the runner wouldn't be sent.
   48. cardsfanboy Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:12 PM (#4259430)
Going with Lynn again, instead of Kelly?
   49. esseff Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:14 PM (#4259432)
Lynn faced only 2 batters Sunday.
   50. salvomania Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:14 PM (#4259433)
Harper with the full-on Braveheart eye black
   51. salvomania Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:16 PM (#4259436)
That's three 2-strike fouls by Harper
   52. Guts Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:17 PM (#4259437)
Harper is the only guy the Cardinals can get out so far in this series.
   53. cardsfanboy Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:22 PM (#4259443)
Harper is the only guy the Cardinals can get out so far in this series.


obviously the post season is causing him to choke, as he treated Cardinal pitching as if it was batting practice in the regular season. :)
   54. esseff Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:25 PM (#4259447)
Well now
   55. Guts Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:26 PM (#4259448)
Whoa, I didn't know you could get a hit in that situation! Freese saves the inning. Of course, now it will get Descalso'd...
   56. Esoteric Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:27 PM (#4259449)
God
Damned
Umpire.
   57. Guts Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:27 PM (#4259450)
!!

That was unexpected.
   58. cardsfanboy Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:28 PM (#4259451)
Descalso!!!!
   59. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:28 PM (#4259452)
I will be very happy if the 2013 MLB AtBat app includes "in play, run(s)/out(s)" and "in play, run(s)/no out" as play descriptions. There is ample space for it and it would add a lot.

   60. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:28 PM (#4259453)
Shadows aren't bothering anyone today.
   61. cardsfanboy Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:29 PM (#4259456)
As long as we don't get bases loaded with no outs, we should be in good shape.
   62. Guts Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:30 PM (#4259457)
Shadows aren't bothering anyone today.

It's bothering Garcia.
   63. The Yankee Clapper Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:30 PM (#4259458)
Yankee line-up:

Derek Jeter SS
Ichiro Suzuki LF
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Robinson Cano 2B
Nick Swisher RF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Russell Martin C
Curtis Granderson CF
Eduardo Nunez DH

LHP Andy Pettitte
   64. esseff Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:30 PM (#4259459)
I give Garcia a better shot than Kozma of getting Freese in
   65. Arva Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:31 PM (#4259460)
Oh god. Kozma has a calmness about him. I wonder, is the calmness in his eyes?
   66. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:31 PM (#4259462)
God
Damned
Umpire.


Freese at bat where the first three pitches were all in TBS's K-Zone and were all called balls?
   67. cardsfanboy Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:32 PM (#4259463)
Already pulling Garcia? Wow. That is gutsy.
   68. Guts Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:32 PM (#4259464)
Why Skip and not Carpenter??

Oh wait, Matheny did the same thing yesterday because Skip's a veteran.
   69. cardsfanboy Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:32 PM (#4259465)
Yankee line-up:

Derek Jeter SS
Ichiro Suzuki LF
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Robinson Cano 2B
Nick Swisher RF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Russell Martin C
Curtis Granderson CF
Eduardo Nunez DH

LHP Andy Pettitte


No one cares about the B game :)
   70. Fat Al Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:33 PM (#4259466)
I will be very happy if the 2013 MLB AtBat app includes "in play, run(s)/out(s)" and "in play, run(s)/no out" as play descriptions. There is ample space for it and it would add a lot.


Shadows too. Need a shadow-indicator in the app.
   71. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:33 PM (#4259467)
Eduardo Nunez DH

This is... weird.
   72. salvomania Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:33 PM (#4259469)
Jaime's actually been a better hitter in 2012 than Skip
   73. esseff Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:33 PM (#4259470)
Why Skip and not Carpenter??

Oh wait, Matheny did the same thing yesterday because Skip's a veteran.


Too early to burn Carpenter.
   74. Joey B. is being stalked by a (Gonfa) loon Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:34 PM (#4259471)
Garcia has a look on his face like "Are you ******* kidding me?" And frankly, it's hard to blame him.
   75. esseff Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:36 PM (#4259472)
Hell of a play. And, yes, good job by Skippy.
   76. Greg K Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:36 PM (#4259473)
Can't even get the double play...poorly done Desmond.
   77. Guts Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:36 PM (#4259474)
Skip far exceeds my expectations. Should have let Garcia hit, though, he's a power threat.
   78. salvomania Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:36 PM (#4259476)
And frankly, it's hard to blame him.


Maybe next time he shouldn't walk three guys, run five 3-2 counts and throw 50+ pitches in the first two innings while putting his team in a hole in a pretty-much must-win game.
   79. McCoy Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:36 PM (#4259477)
It's over.
   80. cardsfanboy Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:37 PM (#4259479)
Jay drives in another run... let's hope that is just the beginning. 4-1 Cards right now, Lynn coming in to pitch.
   81. Best Regards, President of Comfort Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:37 PM (#4259481)
I will be very happy if the 2013 MLB AtBat app includes "in play, run(s)/out(s)" and "in play, run(s)/no out" as play descriptions. There is ample space for it and it would add a lot.

It's not about space.
   82. Guts Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:37 PM (#4259482)
Espinosa was blocking the bag there. Still, 4 runs is 4 runs.
   83. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:38 PM (#4259483)
[71] He hits LHP pretty well. There's really no one else, unless Gardner can play.
   84. Guts Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:38 PM (#4259484)
Already pulling Garcia? Wow. That is gutsy.

It would be crazy not to pull Garcia, he is walking a very narrow tightrope and already got burned once.
   85. cardsfanboy Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:38 PM (#4259485)
Skip far exceeds my expectations. Should have let Garcia hit, though, he's a power threat.


He more or less met my expectation. A ground out scoring the run in from third was about what to expect, for a .270 hitter who strikes out about 15% of the time.
   86. salvomania Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:38 PM (#4259486)
Four runs seems like a molasses flood. Huge and unexpected. And possibly a crushing blow.
   87. esseff Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:39 PM (#4259487)
Give Descalso credit for hustling home before the tag at second.
   88. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:39 PM (#4259489)
It's over.

Are you gonna do this all post-season?
   89. cardsfanboy Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:40 PM (#4259490)
It would be crazy not to pull Garcia, he is walking a very narrow tightrope and already got burned once.


I wouldn't say it's crazy not to pull him, pitchers often times settle down as the game progress's, especially with the advantage of a lead. I probably would have pulled him if I had both Lynn/Kelly on the bench, but I don't think it's a no brainer.
   90. Guts Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:40 PM (#4259491)
He more or less met my expectation. A ground out scoring the run in from third was about what to expect, for a .270 hitter who strikes out about 15% of the time.

I expected a GIDP...
   91. salvomania Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:40 PM (#4259492)
Lance Lynn has been huge the last few weeks.
   92. Davo Dozier (Mastroianni) Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:42 PM (#4259495)
Eduardo Nunez and Lew Ford have started games at DH this series.
   93. cardsfanboy Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:42 PM (#4259496)
I expected a GIDP...


Your a pessimist who doesn't like Schumaker. :)
   94. cardsfanboy Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:43 PM (#4259500)
Need two homeruns by the Cardinals for Bingo!
   95. Guts Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:44 PM (#4259501)
Your a pessimist who doesn't like Schumaker. :)

Yes. I think those are both justified.
   96. Guts Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:46 PM (#4259504)
Lynn just made me feel 10000% better about this game.
   97. esseff Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:46 PM (#4259505)
Possible unintended side benefit of quick hook for Garcia, if the series goes deep: a second loogy in the 'pen.
   98. cardsfanboy Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:52 PM (#4259514)
I wasn't sure that was going to stay fair.
   99. Guts Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:52 PM (#4259515)
Need two homeruns by the Cardinals for Bingo!

One more.
   100. cardsfanboy Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:53 PM (#4259516)
Lynn just made me feel 10000% better about this game.


Yep, nothing against Garcia, but he was nibbling too much.
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