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Saturday, September 08, 2018

Dodgers just 0.5 games behind Rockies

Dodgers now just 0.5 games behind the Rockies after a 4-2 road victory in Coors Field. The Rockies with 1 game in hand. They clash again today (Kyle Freeland, 2.96 in 170.1 innings, vs Walker Buehler, 2.92 in 104.2 innings) and tomorrow, plus three more times in SoCal in two weeks. Dodgers now healthy, Kershaw back from DL. Dodgers still yet to play @ Cards 3 times, plus they close the season with a tough six games @ Arizona and San Francisco. Rockies will play D-Backs twice more, SF on the road and close out with a homestand vs the Phillies and Nats.
The Poor D-Backs, though…

BrokenBat Posted: September 08, 2018 at 11:57 AM | 35 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: dodgers, nl west, playoffs, rockies

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   1. Tom Nawrocki Posted: September 08, 2018 at 01:22 PM (#5740908)
Rockies didn't look good last night, but the Dodgers only have one Clayton Kershaw, and the Rox have their ace, Kyle Freeland, going tonight. Freeland keeps the ball in the ballpark, which is probably the best way to hold down the Dodger offense.
   2. puck Posted: September 08, 2018 at 04:56 PM (#5740956)
Freeland keeps the ball in the ballpark, which is probably the best way to hold down the Dodger offense.


And though he walks guys, he still has allowed only 1 HR with runners on this season. I hope I didn't jinx him there.

Jansen didn't travel to this series, right?
   3. Tom Nawrocki Posted: September 08, 2018 at 08:05 PM (#5741018)
Nolan Arenado is getting the day off - as I said in another thread, he's looked like he's needed a day off for a while. But you do that against the Giants, not against the Dodgers with the division lead on the line.
   4. puck Posted: September 08, 2018 at 08:09 PM (#5741021)
They're sitting Arenado tonight, who's in a bit of a slump. But at least Ian Desmond is still in at 1st.
   5. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: September 08, 2018 at 08:12 PM (#5741022)
Jansen didn't travel to this series, right?
He did not. Maeda got last night's save.
   6. Tom Nawrocki Posted: September 08, 2018 at 08:17 PM (#5741025)
Freeland gets his league-leading 22nd GIDP to get out of a spot of trouble in the first. As far as I know, none of the various pitching metrics care about this.
   7. Ziggy's screen name Posted: September 08, 2018 at 08:52 PM (#5741044)
...except for, you know, ERA.
   8. Tom Nawrocki Posted: September 08, 2018 at 09:01 PM (#5741051)
Yeah, ERA is a statistic rather than a metric. I think his GIDP rates are one reason Freeland's ERA has always been better than his FIP.
   9. Tom Nawrocki Posted: September 08, 2018 at 09:13 PM (#5741061)
I love David Dahl, but that beard makes him look like the Devil.
   10. puck Posted: September 09, 2018 at 11:14 AM (#5741210)
Yeah, ERA is a statistic rather than a metric. I think his GIDP rates are one reason Freeland's ERA has always been better than his FIP.


It's some of it but mostly I think it's his splits with RISP, which are insane this year. Now 15 HR with the bases empty and 1 with runners on, and a 2-run shot at that. His DP rate this year is very good at 15%, but is quite good but not near the league lead.

He's having a remarkable season regardless though. Very consistent, and nearing Ubaldo's team record WAR of 7.5.
   11. Cooper Nielson Posted: September 09, 2018 at 10:57 PM (#5741435)
I've been looking at ESPN's playoff percentages over the past few days and thought it was interesting that the Dodgers, despite trailing the Rockies in the standings, have consistently had a much higher playoff likelihood than the Rockies. At the moment the Rockies (+0.5 games ahead in the NL West) are at 48.7%, the Dodgers at 82.8%. A few days ago the Dodgers' likelihood was more than double the Rockies'.

There's no real mystery here -- the Dodgers have a +132 run differential and the Rockies are negative at -11, and the Rockies also have a tougher remaining schedule. But I was a little surprised that the reverse gap between the first-place and second-place teams could be so big with ~20 games remaining. It's the only division in MLB where the playoff % order does not exactly reflect the standings. (Though in the AL it's obviously all meaningless at this point.)

Also fun: The Orioles have already lost 102 games (with 19 left) and are 56 games behind Boston.

What's the modern (post-Cleveland Spiders) record for most games back, at any point in the season? The 1962 Mets finished 60 games out, and got as high (low) as 61.5 games back. The 1998 Devil Rays lost 8 of their last 9 games to end up 51 behind the Yankees. The 2003 Tigers never topped 49.
   12. Sweatpants Posted: September 10, 2018 at 12:32 AM (#5741459)
Tried to look for teams that were back by 60 (not a comprehensive list):

The 1915 A's won three of their last four to go from from 60.5 games out to 58.5.
The 1954 A's peaked (or bottomed out) at 61 games back, on the second-to-last game of their schedule.
The 1906 Braves were 67 games out at one point that season.
The 1939 Browns' lowest point was when they were 65 games back.
The 1942 Phillies are the first 60-game trailers I've found whose worst mark was on the last game of the season, 62.5 games back.
The 1909 Braves were 66 games out with 12 to play, but they went 6-6 the rest of the way and never exceeded that number (although they did still finish 65.5 games behind the Pirates).
   13. puck Posted: September 10, 2018 at 10:07 AM (#5741499)
Is it unusual to win a division with a negative run difference?
   14. The importance of being Ernest Riles Posted: September 10, 2018 at 10:31 AM (#5741510)
The 07 Diamondbacks won the NL West at -20
The 87 Twins win the AL West, also at -20
   15. SoSH U at work Posted: September 10, 2018 at 10:33 AM (#5741514)
The 87 Twins win the AL West, also at -20


And the World Series, at which point they were above the breakeven mark in RS/RA for the year.

   16. RJ in TO Posted: September 10, 2018 at 10:40 AM (#5741519)
The 87 Twins win the AL West, also at -20
They won with a record of 85-77, with the Angels and Rangers tying for last at 75-87. It was a remarkably balanced division.

Run differential was:
Twins (85-77) at -20
Royals (83-79) at +24
Athletics (81-81) at +17
Mariners (78-84) at -41
White Sox (77-85) at +2
Angels (75-87) at -33
Rangers (75-87) at -26
   17. TomH Posted: September 10, 2018 at 01:41 PM (#5741617)
And the 1994 AL West leaders at the stirke were the Texas Rangers, with a minus 86 (!) run difference, to go with their division-leading 52-62 record.
   18. Cooper Nielson Posted: September 10, 2018 at 11:13 PM (#5742007)
Tried to look for teams that were back by 60 (not a comprehensive list):

The 1915 A's won three of their last four to go from from 60.5 games out to 58.5.
The 1954 A's peaked (or bottomed out) at 61 games back, on the second-to-last game of their schedule.
The 1906 Braves were 67 games out at one point that season.
The 1939 Browns' lowest point was when they were 65 games back.
The 1942 Phillies are the first 60-game trailers I've found whose worst mark was on the last game of the season, 62.5 games back.
The 1909 Braves were 66 games out with 12 to play, but they went 6-6 the rest of the way and never exceeded that number (although they did still finish 65.5 games behind the Pirates).


Great research, thanks a lot!
   19. Tom Nawrocki Posted: September 11, 2018 at 07:40 AM (#5742036)
Is it unusual to win a division with a negative run difference?


They're up to dead-even on the year now.
   20. puck Posted: September 11, 2018 at 10:25 AM (#5742123)
They're up to dead-even on the year now.


I noted the announcers noted this. Interesting team. Such conspicuous weaknesses, which shows up in the run difference. But they keep winning.

The top 4 in the bullpen of Oberg, Oh, Ottavino, and Davis is not what you'd prefer (mainly because of Davis), but other teams have had success with less. Freeland and Marquez have been pitching like aces in the 2nd half (Marquez has a 89 to 16 K:BB ratio in the 2nd half) and Gray has been pretty good as well since his trip to the minors.

I wonder if Tyler Anderson hit a wall? His professional career high in innings before this season was 145 in 2016, and before that it was 120 and 118. The most starts he's ever made professionally is 25.
   21. Tom Nawrocki Posted: September 11, 2018 at 10:52 AM (#5742138)
I always feel like you want six candidates for the starting rotation, because at least one is going to get hurt or suck. And even if two of them flame out, you're still OK. If you have seven candidates, though, that's just anarchy.

The Rox came in to the season with six starters, and when Bettis wasn't good, he was easily replaced by Senzatela. Even if Anderson needs to drop out of the rotation - and I think he does at this point - the Rox still have four decent starters. And, fingers crossed, it would be nice to head into the postseason with three really strong starters, which Freeland/Gray/Marquez definitely are.
   22. Tom Nawrocki Posted: September 11, 2018 at 10:56 AM (#5742142)
By the way, Gerardo Parra is hitting .180/.265/.180 since August 3. He is at best the fifth-best outfielder on the roster. But he's still getting starts.
   23. PreservedFish Posted: September 11, 2018 at 11:08 AM (#5742149)
Free Raimel Tapia!
   24. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: September 11, 2018 at 11:41 AM (#5742176)
They're up to dead-even on the year now.


I noted the announcers noted this. Interesting team. Such conspicuous weaknesses, which shows up in the run difference. But they keep winning.

by Pythag, they shoiud be 14 games back of LA
   25. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: September 11, 2018 at 11:57 AM (#5742189)
I'm just glad to see it's still quite possible for the Dodgers to miss the playoffs by a single game as karmic retribution for Dave Roberts throwing away the Kike Hernandez game.
   26. Dingbat_Charlie Posted: September 11, 2018 at 12:04 PM (#5742195)
Free Mike Tauchman!
   27. BrokenBat Posted: September 11, 2018 at 03:40 PM (#5742354)
Freeland's LOB% rate is upwards of 80% and he only strikes out 7.5/9. Marquez, on the other hand, is average in LOB and strikes out 10. The Rox can't rely on Freeland to carry them. Their hitters need to get hot again, and they need to hope that their bullpen figures something out. Their pitching staff ranks #21 in the MLB overall.
   28. BrokenBat Posted: September 11, 2018 at 03:41 PM (#5742355)
Freeland's LOB% rate is upwards of 80% and he only strikes out 7.5/9. Marquez, on the other hand, is average in LOB and strikes out 10. The Rox can't rely on Freeland to carry them. Their hitters need to get hot again, and they need to hope that their bullpen figures something out. Their pitching staff ranks #21 in the MLB overall.
   29. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: September 11, 2018 at 10:18 PM (#5742637)
Dodgers just dropped a close one in Cincinnati. They're now 0-6 against the Reds, which has to be one of the most unexpected head-to-head records in baseball this year. Plus it could cost them the playoffs.
   30. puck Posted: September 11, 2018 at 10:53 PM (#5742670)
Their pitching staff ranks #21 in the MLB overall.


By what standard? I see them 16th in ERA+ (BB-ref) and 14th in ERA- (Fangraphs).
   31. puck Posted: September 11, 2018 at 10:55 PM (#5742676)
Jeff Hoffman was a rotation candidate too. But he hasn't done well in Albuquerque. I guess he's a bust.
   32. Tom Nawrocki Posted: September 12, 2018 at 08:03 AM (#5742765)
Hoffman was the central piece coming in from the Tulowitzki trade. At this point, the Rockies have netted -1.2 WAR from trading Tulo.
   33. Dr. Vaux Posted: September 12, 2018 at 08:56 AM (#5742788)
So does Dave Roberts get fired if they don't get it in gear and end up in first place? It's got to be one of the biggest disappointments in any kind of recent memory given the disparity between overall results and game-by-game distribution of results.
   34. puck Posted: September 12, 2018 at 10:27 AM (#5742830)
Hoffman was the central piece coming in from the Tulowitzki trade. At this point, the Rockies have netted -1.2 WAR from trading Tulo.


At least they saved a ton of money by switching to Geico (a/k/a Trevor Story).
   35. perros Posted: September 12, 2018 at 03:35 PM (#5743066)
Dodgers off thr snide today at Riverfront. Tame the mighty Missisipp and Katy bar the door.

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