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Tuesday, November 13, 2018

Dodgers pitcher Hyun-jin Ryu is only MLB player to accept $17.9M qualifying offer for 2019

Hyun-jin Ryu won’t be hitting the open market this offseason. The left-handed pitcher has accepted a qualifying offer from the Los Angeles Dodgers, meaning they’ll pay him $17.9 million to forego free agency for another year and stay in L.A. But he’s one-of-a-kind this offseason.

The deadline for free-agents-to-be to accept qualifying offers from their former teams was 5 p.m. ET Monday and Ryu was the only player to accept the $17.9 million deal, according to an announcement from the MLB Players Association.

Bryce Harper, Patrick Corbin, Dallas Keuchel, Craig Kimbrel, A.J. Pollock and Yasmani Grandal were the other players extended a qualifying offer, which is the closest thing MLB has to a franchise tag. If players accepted the offer, they’d remain with their team for one year.

So, was this the right move, or not, or something that we’ll need years to determine?

 

QLE Posted: November 13, 2018 at 05:46 AM | 52 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: hyun-jin ryu, qualifying offers

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   1. DL from MN Posted: November 13, 2018 at 01:47 PM (#5786652)
Pretty sure it was the right move for Ryu. Get paid top dollar to play for a contender.
   2. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 13, 2018 at 01:53 PM (#5786662)
Pretty sure it was the right move for Ryu. Get paid top dollar to play for a contender.

Very sure. I'd hate this deal if I were a Dodger fan. $18M for a guy who has 210 IP over the last 4 seasons, combined.
   3. Nasty Nate Posted: November 13, 2018 at 01:59 PM (#5786666)
a guy who has 210 IP over the last 4 seasons, combined.
Why phrase it like that?
   4. PreservedFish Posted: November 13, 2018 at 02:03 PM (#5786670)
No selective endpoints needed. Ryu has averaged <100 IP per season since crossing the Pacific.
   5. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: November 13, 2018 at 02:17 PM (#5786687)
There are already 7 or 8 good starting pitchers on the roster. They clearly value quality of innings over quantity, and Ryu is likely to give them quality.

It's not like 1/18 is going to get in the way of them signing elite talent anyway, so I don't know why fans should object to a good pitcher being retained for another year.
   6. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 13, 2018 at 03:03 PM (#5786729)
Why phrase it like that?

What's the objection? He missed the full season in 2015, threw 4.2 IP in 2016, 126.2 IP in 2017, and 82.1 IP in 2018.

He's been incredibly unhealthy by any metric. 100 IPs is probably his 80th percentile outcome for 2019. It's dumb to pay $18M for that.
   7. Zonk Can't Hide his Disdain or Disgust Posted: November 13, 2018 at 03:07 PM (#5786737)
There are already 7 or 8 good starting pitchers on the roster. They clearly value quality of innings over quantity, and Ryu is likely to give them quality.


IDK, is he?

His FIP in 2017 was 4.74 (in 50% more IP than 2018).

I suppose for the Dodgers - setting aside the rumors about them wishing to stay under the tax - it's a "meh" QO and acceptance...

I don't think I'd have offered it and I'd probably be thinking "damn" if he accepted, which I'd have certainly expected him to which is why I wouldn't have offered it :-)
   8. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 13, 2018 at 03:11 PM (#5786743)
It's not like 1/18 is going to get in the way of them signing elite talent anyway, so I don't know why fans should object to a good pitcher being retained for another year.

I don't know why you'd assume that. They're at $180-190M already. If you believe the Dodgers that they're going to stay under the $206M luxury tax threshold, that $18M to Ryu basically precludes any major signing.
   9. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: November 13, 2018 at 03:18 PM (#5786752)
His FIP in 2017 was 4.74 (in 50% more IP than 2018).

True, but the 80 innings in 2018 were excellent. He projects to a ~3.70 for 2019.

I'm not saying he should be expected to be worth $18mill (there's a reason he accepted the QO). Just that he's a pretty good pitcher, and his limitations and his price are much less problematic for the Dodgers than they'd be for almost any other team. So I don't see the problem.
   10. Nasty Nate Posted: November 13, 2018 at 03:21 PM (#5786754)
What's the objection?
While true, I think it is unnecessarily pessimistic in terms of predicting how many inning he'll pitch in 2019.

They're at $180-190M already. If you believe the Dodgers that they're going to stay under the $206M luxury tax threshold, that $18M to Ryu basically precludes any major signing.
Right, the Ryu QO doesn't really line up with a team that wants to stay under the luxury tax threshold. So maybe they are going to blow past it again after ducking under it in '18 and re-setting things.
   11. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: November 13, 2018 at 03:22 PM (#5786757)
If you believe the Dodgers that they're going to stay under the $206M luxury tax threshold, that $18M to Ryu basically precludes any major signing.

I believe that the Dodgers are a competently run organization and would not risk losing the ability to sign a top FA for an outside shot at an extra 2nd round pick.
   12. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 13, 2018 at 03:39 PM (#5786771)
I believe that the Dodgers are a competently run organization and would not risk losing the ability to sign a top FA for an outside shot at an extra 2nd round pick.

Competently run organizations still have blind spots. Wild optimism about pitcher health seems to be the Dodgers.

While true, I think it is unnecessarily pessimistic in terms of predicting how many inning he'll pitch in 2019.


Well projection systems generally use four years of history. I think the fact that Ryu missed two full seasons is relevant to his likely health.
   13. Nasty Nate Posted: November 13, 2018 at 03:45 PM (#5786779)

Well projection systems generally use four years of history.
For those that predict health/playing time, I don't think they use 4 years in the same way that they use 4 years for performance. E.G. Steamer gives him 126 innings in their projection.
   14. Walt Davis Posted: November 13, 2018 at 03:52 PM (#5786787)
#6: The "objection" is you picked the worst-possible innings/years combo. None of them are good but you could have said "200 innings in the last 2 years" or "550 innings in 6 years" but you went with 200/4 which makes it look even worse.

What the Dodgers have done with their rotation the last few years is weird but interesting. 7 quality guys with 15+ starts this year, none more than 27, mostly being paid very good money so obviously partly by design. When you've got that abundance of expensive talent and you don't trade from that depth to fill a hole ... it suggests intent which also raises the question of how many of those injuries were real and how many were to give the guy some rest.

Which raises the possibility that the Dodgers "know" that Ryu is actually healthy enough to go 150+ (apparently all anybody really expects these days), he just happens to be no higher than 6th-7th on their depth chart (unless he pitches like 2018 again). They've been doing the same thing with Rich Hill (<270 IP the last 2 years) for pretty much the same AAV ... again given Hill's history and age, they can't have been expecting more than that.

Over the last 2 years, Hill and Ryu have combined for about 475 innings and 7.5 bWAR for about $24 AAV. This year it will cost them $34. I'm not sure we still have such a thing as a 200-220 IP, 3-3.5 WAR pitcher -- OK, Jon Lester who got $26 in FA 4 years ago. Such a pitcher wouldn't get $34 and there's a big risk Hill and Ryu won't be able to combine for 220 IP. But it might be enough to explain the QO -- Ryu's 1-year value is probably closer to $14 so $18 isn't outrageous and maybe he'd expect a team to rock up with a 2/$25 offer.
   15. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: November 13, 2018 at 03:53 PM (#5786789)
Wild optimism about pitcher health seems to be the Dodgers.

Again, I don't think that's the case. They stockpile as much fragile pitching talent as they do, because they know no one can be counted on for anything like a full season.
   16. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: November 13, 2018 at 04:04 PM (#5786797)
Agreed with Dog, the Dodgers stockpile pitching because they know pitching is fragile.
   17. Zonk Can't Hide his Disdain or Disgust Posted: November 13, 2018 at 04:05 PM (#5786798)
I'm not saying he should be expected to be worth $18mill (there's a reason he accepted the QO). Just that he's a pretty good pitcher, and his limitations and his price are much less problematic for the Dodgers than they'd be for almost any other team. So I don't see the problem.


Sure - like I said... I think it's a pretty 'meh' QO and 'meh' acceptance for the Dodgers (and to be fair - probably half a dozen other teams).

I just wouldn't have done it.... especially based on last offseason's market collapse, just feels like I'd be thinking that if I really want him back - I could probably have him back for less... though, of course - maybe more years.
   18. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 13, 2018 at 04:13 PM (#5786805)
Which raises the possibility that the Dodgers "know" that Ryu is actually healthy enough to go 150+ (apparently all anybody really expects these days), he just happens to be no higher than 6th-7th on their depth chart (unless he pitches like 2018 again).

Why would you pay $18M for a guy who is your 6th or 7th SP?
   19. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: November 13, 2018 at 04:21 PM (#5786811)
Because you're counting on needing innings from your 6th-7th starters, and you're fortunate enough to be able to afford to pay $18m for a good one.
   20. Nasty Nate Posted: November 13, 2018 at 04:23 PM (#5786812)
As of October, Ryu was no lower than their 4th SP.
   21. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: November 13, 2018 at 04:33 PM (#5786822)
I think once you get past Kershaw and Buehler, SPs #3-8 are mostly interchangeable.
   22. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 13, 2018 at 04:49 PM (#5786837)
Because you're counting on needing innings from your 6th-7th starters, and you're fortunate enough to be able to afford to pay $18m for a good one.

That's almost certainly a terrible use of resources, especially for a playoff team. If you're going to have a $230M payroll (random number between first and second tax thresholds), paying for 7 SPs is going to make the rest of your team worse than it should be. Multiple highly paid players won't be used in the playoffs.

Of their 7 SP, in the NLCS, Hill threw only 6 innings, Wood 3.1, Ryu 7.1, Maeda 2.2, and Ross Stripling (who pitched to a 128 ERA+) zero. He wasn't on the roster.

That's a horrible waste of talent.
   23. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: November 13, 2018 at 05:09 PM (#5786858)
And during the regular season, they all contributed quality innings as the Dodgers just barely made the playoffs.
   24. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 13, 2018 at 05:19 PM (#5786863)
And during the regular season, they all contributed quality innings as the Dodgers just barely made the playoffs.

It's still an inefficient way to build a team. You could sign 5 starting quality OF and rotate across the three spots, and they would all contribute quality PAs over the course of the season. It would still be a waste.

The Dodgers have gone way overboard on depth, and it hasn't really paid off.

Since 2013 they run astronomical payrolls and registered the following win totals: 92, 94, 92, 91, 104, 92. That's not a great ROI.
   25. Nasty Nate Posted: November 13, 2018 at 05:30 PM (#5786870)
Big money teams aren't trying to maximize wins-per-payroll-dollar, nor should they.

(edited)
   26. Zonk Can't Hide his Disdain or Disgust Posted: November 13, 2018 at 05:42 PM (#5786877)
Since 2013 they run astronomical payrolls and registered the following win totals: 92, 94, 92, 91, 104, 92. That's not a great ROI.


Sure it is. Especially when you consider they've all meant division titles.

We can talk playoffs, sample size, and individual decisions in October I guess -- but only a fool would pooh-pooh that.

The lack of a title most certainly stands out, sure... but I'd be pretty happy with my team's FO if they provided 6 years of 90+ wins, division titles every season, 4 LCS appearances and 2 WS appearances. Yeah - I'd also be wondering WTF they can't win the big one, but that's just silly.

...and I hate the Dodgers.
   27. The Run Fairy Posted: November 13, 2018 at 05:45 PM (#5786880)
Since 2013 they run astronomical payrolls and registered the following win totals: 92, 94, 92, 91, 104, 92. That's not a great ROI.


They made the playoffs every season in that sequence, while finishing first in the MLB in attendance every season. They've been in the World Series twice, and the NLCS twice. They've fallen short of the expectations that "smart people spending dump trucks full of money" inspired, but that's still a very good run. Consistently making the playoffs and being competitive isn't easy, even with those payrolls.

This is meaningless because of league competition differences but during that period they've spent 16 million more per year than the Yankees and gained 6 wins/season, 3 extra playoff seasons, 2 pennants, and 3 more LCS appearances.
   28. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 13, 2018 at 06:05 PM (#5786894)
Big money teams aren't trying to maximize wins-per-payroll-dollar, nor should they.


No, but they are trying to maximize Pennants or World Series per payroll dollars, and concentrating lots of salary in injury prone SP, who may not even get much use in October is a bad way to do it.

The lack of a title most certainly stands out, sure... but I'd be pretty happy with my team's FO if they provided 6 years of 90+ wins, division titles every season, 4 LCS appearances and 2 WS appearances. Yeah - I'd also be wondering WTF they can't win the big one, but that's just silly.

The Yankees from 2001-2007 led the league in payroll every year, made the playoffs every year, an as a Yankee fan, I view that era as a failure.
   29. Ziggy's screen name Posted: November 13, 2018 at 06:16 PM (#5786903)
Man snapper is off his meds today.
   30. Zonk Can't Hide his Disdain or Disgust Posted: November 13, 2018 at 06:20 PM (#5786906)
The Yankees from 2001-2007 led the league in payroll every year, made the playoffs every year, an as a Yankee fan, I view that era as a failure.


This is why nobody likes the Yankees except Yankee fans.
   31. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: November 13, 2018 at 06:25 PM (#5786911)
Since 2013 they run astronomical payrolls and registered the following win totals: 92, 94, 92, 91, 104, 92. That's not a great ROI.


Uh yeah, what 26 and 27 said.

You're fandom as a Yankee supporter really shows it's true colours when you don't think their success(see 26 and 27 for the specifics) of the last 5 years is not a great ROI. Your expectations are waaaay too high.

As a Red Sox fan I am over the moon with their recent success, however do realise that they've managed to come pretty good in the playoffs once they get rolling. However in '16 and '17 they got thumped in the LCS but I still consider those seasons a success.
   32. Zonk Can't Hide his Disdain or Disgust Posted: November 13, 2018 at 06:38 PM (#5786924)
As a Red Sox fan I am over the moon with their recent success, however do realise that they've managed to come pretty good in the playoffs once they get rolling. However in '16 and '17 they got thumped in the LCS but I still consider those seasons a success.


Heh... ditto as a Cubs fan - but one know getting antsy and looking at Theo's former employers and saying "Hey... what about THAT!?!?!"

You've got about a decade of a head start on learning to navigate the landscape once you've actually summitted the mountain.

...but we're getting there!

   33. JAHV Posted: November 13, 2018 at 07:39 PM (#5786979)
Since 2013 they run astronomical payrolls and registered the following win totals: 92, 94, 92, 91, 104, 92. That's not a great ROI.


They've played in 12 playoff series over those 6 years. Is that really a poor ROI? Maybe you could say that they should have used those huge payrolls to win at least one championship, but I don't think they've underperformed by that much if at all. Maybe you'd like to see 100-win totals every season, but they've won the division every one of those years, which is the one thing they can control during the regular season. And then they've had a decent measure of success in the postseason as well. I would say they've been on a pretty good run.

Edit: Cokes all around. I've also got Cactus Cooler if you prefer.
   34. Jeff Frances the Mute Posted: November 13, 2018 at 08:06 PM (#5786990)
Man snapper is off his meds today.

Snapper doesn’t like Friedman.
   35. bfan Posted: November 13, 2018 at 08:17 PM (#5786994)
how about taking his innings as quality and his average as 55 innings. Dodgers pitched 1476 innings last year, so it would take 26.836 Ryu's to pitch the full season. $17.9 million times 26.836= $480 million, to put together a pitching staff, at the Ryu rate. I believe that would be a problem.

Even if you assume Ryu goes all iron-man in 2019 and matches his last year and gets 80 innings. That would take 18.45 Ryu's at that pace to fill in innings in the season. 18.45 x $17.9= $330 million for the pitching staff. Still seems like a problem to me.
   36. The Duke Posted: November 13, 2018 at 08:18 PM (#5786995)
A lot of passion for a 1/18 deal. It’s a win-win. Not sure how anyone can work up a lot of distaste for this.
   37. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: November 13, 2018 at 08:30 PM (#5787000)
The Yankees from 2001-2007 led the league in payroll every year, made the playoffs every year, an as a Yankee fan, I view that era as a failure.


Would you feel the same if they had won a WS? Because they were a Mariano Rivera throwing error away from winning in 2001. Does 1 play turn an 8 year period from a failure to a success?
   38. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 13, 2018 at 10:02 PM (#5787047)
Would you feel the same if they had won a WS? Because they were a Mariano Rivera throwing error away from winning in 2001. Does 1 play turn an 8 year period from a failure to a success?

No. Because they later period featured a thoroughly unlikable, poorly designed team, of old FAs that no one could like.

You're fandom as a Yankee supporter really shows it's true colours when you don't think their success(see 26 and 27 for the specifics) of the last 5 years is not a great ROI. Your expectations are waaaay too high.

As a Red Sox fan I am over the moon with their recent success, however do realise that they've managed to come pretty good in the playoffs once they get rolling. However in '16 and '17 they got thumped in the LCS but I still consider those seasons a success.


The Red Sox have won a World Series have 4 WS in 9 playoff appearances since 2004. That's insanely lucky. Of course you're happy.

Snapper doesn’t like Friedman.

I don't like paying $250M for a merely good team. Friedman has wasted >$200M of his ownership's money over the last 6 years. The Dodgers came apart like a cheap suit when playing the Red Sox. Just as disgraceful as the Yankees performance. Note: I also view the Yankees' season as a failure.

This is why nobody likes the Yankees except Yankee fans.

I don't want to be liked, I want to win. Yankee fans should relish the hatred of other fanbases. It means we're good. No one hated the 1989-92 Yankees.
   39. SoSH U at work Posted: November 13, 2018 at 10:46 PM (#5787060)
Friedman has wasted >$200M of his ownership's money over the last 6 years. The Dodgers came apart like a cheap suit when playing the Red Sox. Just as disgraceful as the Yankees performance. Note: I also view the Yankees' season as a failure.


Friedman's only been there for four seasons. The first two division titles, and still much of the talent the Dodgers have put on the field for the last four seasons, was amassed by the regime headed up by his much-maligned predecessor.

Unlike you, I think he and Zaidi have done some nice things, but it's not like they took over a cellar dweller.

No one hated the 1989-92 Yankees.


Nonsense. It was easy. Every Yankee club offers something to hate.
   40. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: November 14, 2018 at 12:13 AM (#5787073)
I’m always fascinated at fans who feel a division title season is a disappointment. You spend six months rooting for a team and they come out on top, that’s awesome. If you can’t enjoy that I feel bad for you.
   41. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: November 14, 2018 at 12:27 AM (#5787076)
The Dodgers came apart like a cheap suit when playing the Red Sox. Just as disgraceful as the Yankees performance

Your expectations are unreasonable, and you infer way too much from tiny samples.
   42. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 14, 2018 at 09:13 AM (#5787123)
I’m always fascinated at fans who feel a division title season is a disappointment. You spend six months rooting for a team and they come out on top, that’s awesome. If you can’t enjoy that I feel bad for you.

That's the world of expanded playoffs. The division championship was meaningful when it meant you went straight to the ALCS or NLCS. You were in the final 4. Now, it's much less meaningful, especially when you can have to play the team you just beat, like the Red Sox did.

In season enjoyment has little to do with what you win; it has to do with competitiveness. I'd get more enjoyment from a 90 win season that's nip and tuck all the way than a 100 win season where you cruise to the division.

The Yankees season was a disappointment partly because the in-season experience was poor; the last 3 months they neither challenged the Red Sox or were challenged. That's dull baseball.
   43. Nasty Nate Posted: November 14, 2018 at 09:48 AM (#5787143)
This is great. You can't be a cheapskate team or one built on the backs of years of tanking. But also, you can't have too high a payroll because that's inefficient and the players can (retroactively?) be called unlikable mercenaries. On one hand you have to make a claim to being the "best" but also you can't skate to the division title with a huge lead. And you certainly can't "come apart" in the playoffs, even if you hit all of the other criteria above.

So that leaves us with the 2010 San Francisco Giants as the only recent team that was both enjoyable and successful!
   44. Tom Nawrocki Posted: November 14, 2018 at 09:55 AM (#5787150)
Would you feel the same if they had won a WS? Because they were a Mariano Rivera throwing error away from winning in 2001. Does 1 play turn an 8 year period from a failure to a success?


It's also odd because that "era" followed three straight World Championships. The 1998-2007 "era" for the Yankees was a spectacular success.
   45. DL from MN Posted: November 14, 2018 at 10:01 AM (#5787158)
So that leaves us with the 2010 San Francisco Giants as the only recent team that was both enjoyable and successful!


The Brewers were pretty fun this year. They don't tank and when they get close to contending they go all-in.
   46. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: November 14, 2018 at 11:05 AM (#5787217)
Yankee fans should relish the hatred of other fanbases. It means we're good.


No, fans hate you because of behavior and stupidity that is similar to what you've posted in this thread.
   47. base ball chick Posted: November 14, 2018 at 12:36 PM (#5787353)
the yankees had over 100 wins

and you call that DULL??

not BEATING the red sox is becqause they were actually a better team, not because the yankees forfeited games

better teams usually DO win, you know

DULL is any team actively engaged in 3-4 year tanking and trying harde to NOT win - thaNK YOU ASTROS/CUBS FOR STARTING THIS CRAP
   48. TomH Posted: November 14, 2018 at 02:55 PM (#5787467)
Not to blame one poster, but I am quite tired of the meme of blaming the Cubs and Astros for figuring out and be willing to be proactive in implementing a tactic that nets them greater opportunity for greatness over the long term. Somebody else woulda done it if not them. Of course they were successful, so likelihood of imitation is higher, and if you don't like that, oh well.

'Twould be better if MLB draft or other mechanisms rewarded teams for coming close to making the playoffs instead of winning 50 games, but that is MLB's issue, not the Cubs or Astros.


   49. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: November 14, 2018 at 03:10 PM (#5787479)
the yankees had over 100 wins

and you call that DULL??

not BEATING the red sox is becqause they were actually a better team, not because the yankees forfeited games

better teams usually DO win, you know

DULL is any team actively engaged in 3-4 year tanking and trying harde to NOT win - thaNK YOU ASTROS/CUBS FOR STARTING THIS CRAP


Yes, the 2018 Cincinnati Reds were dull. Reds fans didn't even get one of those ridiculous, months-long runs of crushing the ball that Votto has specialized in. The Yankees played meaningful games (even if only for WC home advantage) until the end. The Reds lost on opening day, and were, effectively, out-of-contention at 0-1.
   50. Walt Davis Posted: November 14, 2018 at 03:59 PM (#5787504)
Once again, here's what the Dodgers have been doing ...

For 2017-18, Hill and Ryu have combined for 475 innings and an ERA+ around 120 for $24 AAV. How much do you think you pay in FA for a 220 IP, 120 ERA+ starter, assuming you can even find such a beastie? It's gonna be at least $24. No waste of resources there, they simply built a #1 or excellent #2 starter out of 2 guys for probably a little less than they'd have paid to do it with one guy. This year they'll be paying $34 which is an overpay but it's more innings, slightly worse ERA+ than Patrick Corbin over the last two years so let's see what he gets. And the Dodgers are on the hook for one year.

Alternatively, the last 2 yeas, Ryu has put up 3.5 WAR, supposedly valued at $28-30 M in FA. So 1/$18 is an overpay but that's usually the range where you think the QO is worth the risk -- worse case scenario, one year small overpay; maybe better if you get the pick.

The Dodgers have the super-stud #1 who is paid like a super stud. They have a top-notch "#2" in Hill/Ryu who collectively were paid like a top-notch #2 (and this year like a superstud) -- their extra innings help cover for Kershaw's missed innings. They then have two cheap excellent "arb" pitchers in Wood and Maeda (Maeda not technically arb). They then have two very cheap starters, Buehler who was a stud prospect and Stripling a late bloomer who came out of nowhere.

That's a pretty normal "big budget" pitching staff except maybe that they have two good pre-arb guys. The Red Sox have Price at $31 (Kershaw), Porcello at $21 (old Hill/Ryu), Sale topping out now at $15 (more than Wood/Maeda combined), ERod entering arb, Pomeranz an FA who cost $8.5 M last year and they had to pick up Eovaldi at the deadline.

So last year the Red Sox paid about $71 M for their original 5 starters plus whatever talent they gave up for Eovaldi. They got 135 starts and about 785 innings. The Dodgers paid about $70 M for their 7 starters, got 156 starts and 912 innings. Dodgers won that one easily although the price tag will be $80+ this year. And the Dodgers paid twice as much (by AAV) for Jansen's 72 innings than for Ryu's 82 ... they'll pay them about equally in 2019.

Having 7 good SP is only a "waste" if all 7 are healthy and you have nothing else to do with them. Maeda picked up 19 relief appearances, 18 innings ... mediocre results but a 26/3 K/BB. This really does seem a Dodgers strategy although it's also just possible they fell into it out of a mix of injury and wealth. But if you can cobble together 150+ good-excellent starts out of 7 pitchers with (one hopes) some added injury protection from that depth, it's better than cobbling together a 'strong" staff of 5 for the same money without the injury protection. There really aren't that many SPs anymore that can be relied on for 25+ starts year after year and even those guys are just one elbow pop away from being unreliable. Seven guys are a lot more likely to give you 150 starts than 5 are ... and if those 7 guys are priced at 20-25 start level while the 5 are priced at 30-start level, the money works out the same.

In the same way, the "crazy" reliever money starts to make sense. Three of those $9 M guys give you about 180 innings of 130-140 ERA+ -- that's at least what you'll pay for the equivalent starter ... all, what, 6 such starters. Or one overpaid (genuinely IMO) stud closer plus a $9 M guy plus a $5 M guy is also about 180 innings, possibly pushing a 150+ if your stud closer really is a stud closer ... that's Kershaw money but for (current) Kershaw innings and performance.

So sure, as long as Greinke, Kershaw, Scherzer, Price are gonna cost you $30+ M a year and Lester, Verlander, Cueto, Porcello, Darvish, Arrieta are gonna cost you $20-25 (or more) then cobbling together 3 guys for (hopefully) 60 good starts at $50 M a year makes perfectly good sense. There are roster crunch issues ... but you also probably haven't signed any of those guys for 7 years. Obviously it helps to be able to afford a payroll that allows you to spend $70 M on a rotation.

I know, I know, they're all ridiculously overpaid, when will teams ever learn?!
   51. Baldrick Posted: November 14, 2018 at 04:42 PM (#5787524)
I don't like paying $250M for a merely good team. Friedman has wasted >$200M of his ownership's money over the last 6 years. The Dodgers came apart like a cheap suit when playing the Red Sox. Just as disgraceful as the Yankees performance. Note: I also view the Yankees' season as a failure.

There are probably 20-25 teams in baseball that would be thrilled to have 'failed' like the Yankees and Dodgers. If the vast majority of competitors 'failed,' that probably means the standards you've set are unreasonable.
   52. Petunia inquires about ponies Posted: November 14, 2018 at 07:42 PM (#5787602)
[38] I don't want to be liked, I want to win.

No, you don't. Remember saying this?

[24] the following win totals: 92, 94, 92, 91, 104, 92. That's not a great ROI.

That's winning 90+ every year. That's... winning.

[38] Friedman has wasted >$200M of his ownership's money over the last 6 years

Who gives a ####?

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