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Saturday, March 18, 2017

Dodgers Prospect Cody Bellinger Has Limitless Potential

Another next big thing.

Jim Furtado Posted: March 18, 2017 at 08:00 AM | 10 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: cody bellinger, dodgers, prospects

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   1. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: March 18, 2017 at 09:16 AM (#5419203)
Limitless? I'm going to say there's a limit of 5.000 on his OPS.
   2. eric Posted: March 18, 2017 at 10:10 AM (#5419213)
Yes, but for how many years in a row?
   3. asinwreck Posted: March 18, 2017 at 10:43 AM (#5419224)
Methuselah Bellinger can produce at that level for nine-and-a-half centuries, tops.
   4. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: March 18, 2017 at 12:42 PM (#5419263)
950 years? I'm guessing his production will start to slip she he has to face cyborg pitchers throwing 300 mph.
   5. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: March 18, 2017 at 12:44 PM (#5419264)
Ah, but does he have limitless sushi?
   6. Walt Davis Posted: March 18, 2017 at 06:17 PM (#5419353)
One never knows but I'm not seeing it. Career minors line of 267/349/494 with a K-rate over 20% at A+/AA. He's an old 21 (July 13 birthday). He seems to have good speed for a 1B (29/7 in steals and they've even given him some games in CF) but he's still a 1B. His age 20 (raw) numbers aren't anywhere near as good as Freeman's or Hosmer's nor, at 22, Belt or Schwarber. ZiPS projects him for 232/302/452 and Steamer at 237/307/414. That first line is solid enough in today's game but hardly any notion of limitless potential.
   7. Jose Bautista Bobblehead Day Posted: March 18, 2017 at 07:01 PM (#5419362)
Walt, I'm with you on this. It seems that people are so enamored by Bellinger's swing mechanics that they're convinced he'll hit for average to go with his power.

The similarities to Nomar Mazara are striking, but Mazara is less than three months older and was better at hitting for contact in the minors. Bellinger seems like a guy whose reasonable upside is .280 AVG/25 HR.
   8. PreservedFish Posted: March 18, 2017 at 07:43 PM (#5419365)
So, Paul Konerko II?
   9. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: March 18, 2017 at 08:04 PM (#5419370)
So, Paul Konerko II?


Something along those lines. I'm thinking Ryan Klesko with better defense seems like a pretty good upside comp.

I can't believe that the Dodgers still have Ethier under contract.
   10. Walt Davis Posted: March 19, 2017 at 01:38 AM (#5419470)
In fairness, his AA line at 20 is a good match for Rizzo -- who rocked AAA at 21 (331/404/652). That would be a very nice outcome for him but Rizzo took a 2nd big step at 24.

Here's an interesting comp ... Rizzo vs Hosmer (Rizzo first)

age 19: 297/368/461 at A/A+ ... 241/334/361 at A/A+
age 20: 260/334/480 at A+/AA ... 338/406/571 at A+/AA
age 21: 331/404/652 at AAA ... 439/552/582 at AAA (118 PA)
age 21: 141/282/242 at MLB (135 PA) ... 293/334/465 at MLB (563 PA)
age 22: 342/405/696 at AAA ...
age 22: 285/342/463 at MLB (368 PA) ... 232/304/359 at MLB
age 23: 233/323/419 at MLB ... 302/353/448 at MLB

Close I suppose but you'd have to take Hosmer to that point. In MLB, Rizzo had about 1100 PA with a 101 OPS+; Hosmer wasn't much better in 1700 PA at 106. Hosmer had been better at ages 20, 21 and 23 at that point. In WAR terms, Rfield was very big on Rizzo's defense (+22) and down on Hosmer's (-12) which was enough to close the PT and batting gaps, thereby giving Rizzo a nice WAA edge. If you take Rfield at face value (or reasonably close) then you'd choose Rizzo.

Since then of course it's been terribly lopsided at 17 WAR to 5.5 ... or 14.3 oWAR to 5.7 oWAR. Rizzo's bat busted out, Hosmer's didn't. And the Cubs held Rizzo down long enough in 2012 to keep him under 1 year and got him to sign an FA buyout (it is at least a bit front-loaded in his favor).

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