Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Saturday, March 18, 2017

Dodgers Prospect Cody Bellinger Has Limitless Potential

Another next big thing.

Jim Furtado Posted: March 18, 2017 at 08:00 AM | 10 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: cody bellinger, dodgers, prospects

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: March 18, 2017 at 09:16 AM (#5419203)
Limitless? I'm going to say there's a limit of 5.000 on his OPS.
   2. eric Posted: March 18, 2017 at 10:10 AM (#5419213)
Yes, but for how many years in a row?
   3. asinwreck Posted: March 18, 2017 at 10:43 AM (#5419224)
Methuselah Bellinger can produce at that level for nine-and-a-half centuries, tops.
   4. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: March 18, 2017 at 12:42 PM (#5419263)
950 years? I'm guessing his production will start to slip she he has to face cyborg pitchers throwing 300 mph.
   5. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: March 18, 2017 at 12:44 PM (#5419264)
Ah, but does he have limitless sushi?
   6. Walt Davis Posted: March 18, 2017 at 06:17 PM (#5419353)
One never knows but I'm not seeing it. Career minors line of 267/349/494 with a K-rate over 20% at A+/AA. He's an old 21 (July 13 birthday). He seems to have good speed for a 1B (29/7 in steals and they've even given him some games in CF) but he's still a 1B. His age 20 (raw) numbers aren't anywhere near as good as Freeman's or Hosmer's nor, at 22, Belt or Schwarber. ZiPS projects him for 232/302/452 and Steamer at 237/307/414. That first line is solid enough in today's game but hardly any notion of limitless potential.
   7. Jose Bautista Bobblehead Day Posted: March 18, 2017 at 07:01 PM (#5419362)
Walt, I'm with you on this. It seems that people are so enamored by Bellinger's swing mechanics that they're convinced he'll hit for average to go with his power.

The similarities to Nomar Mazara are striking, but Mazara is less than three months older and was better at hitting for contact in the minors. Bellinger seems like a guy whose reasonable upside is .280 AVG/25 HR.
   8. PreservedFish Posted: March 18, 2017 at 07:43 PM (#5419365)
So, Paul Konerko II?
   9. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: March 18, 2017 at 08:04 PM (#5419370)
So, Paul Konerko II?


Something along those lines. I'm thinking Ryan Klesko with better defense seems like a pretty good upside comp.

I can't believe that the Dodgers still have Ethier under contract.
   10. Walt Davis Posted: March 19, 2017 at 01:38 AM (#5419470)
In fairness, his AA line at 20 is a good match for Rizzo -- who rocked AAA at 21 (331/404/652). That would be a very nice outcome for him but Rizzo took a 2nd big step at 24.

Here's an interesting comp ... Rizzo vs Hosmer (Rizzo first)

age 19: 297/368/461 at A/A+ ... 241/334/361 at A/A+
age 20: 260/334/480 at A+/AA ... 338/406/571 at A+/AA
age 21: 331/404/652 at AAA ... 439/552/582 at AAA (118 PA)
age 21: 141/282/242 at MLB (135 PA) ... 293/334/465 at MLB (563 PA)
age 22: 342/405/696 at AAA ...
age 22: 285/342/463 at MLB (368 PA) ... 232/304/359 at MLB
age 23: 233/323/419 at MLB ... 302/353/448 at MLB

Close I suppose but you'd have to take Hosmer to that point. In MLB, Rizzo had about 1100 PA with a 101 OPS+; Hosmer wasn't much better in 1700 PA at 106. Hosmer had been better at ages 20, 21 and 23 at that point. In WAR terms, Rfield was very big on Rizzo's defense (+22) and down on Hosmer's (-12) which was enough to close the PT and batting gaps, thereby giving Rizzo a nice WAA edge. If you take Rfield at face value (or reasonably close) then you'd choose Rizzo.

Since then of course it's been terribly lopsided at 17 WAR to 5.5 ... or 14.3 oWAR to 5.7 oWAR. Rizzo's bat busted out, Hosmer's didn't. And the Cubs held Rizzo down long enough in 2012 to keep him under 1 year and got him to sign an FA buyout (it is at least a bit front-loaded in his favor).

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Jim Wisinski
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogSouthern hospitality: Braves unveil new SunTrust Park food | FOX Sports
(73 - 5:19am, Mar 26)
Last: TVerik, who wonders what the hell is "Ansky"

NewsblogHeyman: Nationals leaning toward Koda Glover for closer role
(23 - 3:32am, Mar 26)
Last: jyjjy

NewsblogBrockmire’ Trailer: “Sybaritic Love Letter To Baseball” Says Hank Azaria
(4 - 2:17am, Mar 26)
Last: Gonfalon Bubble

NewsblogOT - March 2017 NBA thread
(833 - 1:16am, Mar 26)
Last: Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos

NewsblogOTP 20 March 2017: This fighter for civil rights has baseball in her DNA
(2031 - 1:08am, Mar 26)
Last: greenback changed his travels

NewsblogSources: Rougned Odor expected to sign multi-year extension with Rangers
(12 - 12:36am, Mar 26)
Last: Los Angeles El Hombre de Anaheim

NewsblogAnderson wins spot in Cubs rotation
(3 - 12:22am, Mar 26)
Last: Sebastian

NewsblogOT: NCAA March Madness 2017
(280 - 11:37pm, Mar 25)
Last: Infinite Yost (Voxter)

NewsblogSources: Indians finalizing four-year extension with Jose Ramirez
(7 - 8:32pm, Mar 25)
Last: Infinite Yost (Voxter)

NewsblogDetroit Tigers' J.D. Martinez will be out 3-4 more weeks
(6 - 4:48pm, Mar 25)
Last: Dog on the sidewalk

NewsblogDodgers' pitchers rate well in Statcast metric | MLB.com
(4 - 3:57pm, Mar 25)
Last: PreservedFish

NewsblogWhy Travis d’Arnaud should never catch Noah Syndergaard | New York Post
(2 - 12:24pm, Mar 25)
Last: JJ1986

NewsblogFortune magazine crowns Theo Epstein 'world's greatest leader'
(38 - 10:56am, Mar 25)
Last: ReggieThomasLives

NewsblogPirates' Jung Ho Kang reportedly denied visa to enter U.S. after DUI conviction
(28 - 8:05am, Mar 25)
Last: Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad)

NewsblogReport: Former Bulls GM Jerry Krause dies at 77
(66 - 8:04am, Mar 25)
Last: McCoy

Page rendered in 0.2215 seconds
47 querie(s) executed