Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Saturday, March 18, 2017

Dodgers Prospect Cody Bellinger Has Limitless Potential

Another next big thing.

Jim Furtado Posted: March 18, 2017 at 08:00 AM | 10 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: cody bellinger, dodgers, prospects

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: March 18, 2017 at 09:16 AM (#5419203)
Limitless? I'm going to say there's a limit of 5.000 on his OPS.
   2. eric Posted: March 18, 2017 at 10:10 AM (#5419213)
Yes, but for how many years in a row?
   3. asinwreck Posted: March 18, 2017 at 10:43 AM (#5419224)
Methuselah Bellinger can produce at that level for nine-and-a-half centuries, tops.
   4. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: March 18, 2017 at 12:42 PM (#5419263)
950 years? I'm guessing his production will start to slip she he has to face cyborg pitchers throwing 300 mph.
   5. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: March 18, 2017 at 12:44 PM (#5419264)
Ah, but does he have limitless sushi?
   6. Walt Davis Posted: March 18, 2017 at 06:17 PM (#5419353)
One never knows but I'm not seeing it. Career minors line of 267/349/494 with a K-rate over 20% at A+/AA. He's an old 21 (July 13 birthday). He seems to have good speed for a 1B (29/7 in steals and they've even given him some games in CF) but he's still a 1B. His age 20 (raw) numbers aren't anywhere near as good as Freeman's or Hosmer's nor, at 22, Belt or Schwarber. ZiPS projects him for 232/302/452 and Steamer at 237/307/414. That first line is solid enough in today's game but hardly any notion of limitless potential.
   7. Jose Bautista Bobblehead Day Posted: March 18, 2017 at 07:01 PM (#5419362)
Walt, I'm with you on this. It seems that people are so enamored by Bellinger's swing mechanics that they're convinced he'll hit for average to go with his power.

The similarities to Nomar Mazara are striking, but Mazara is less than three months older and was better at hitting for contact in the minors. Bellinger seems like a guy whose reasonable upside is .280 AVG/25 HR.
   8. PreservedFish Posted: March 18, 2017 at 07:43 PM (#5419365)
So, Paul Konerko II?
   9. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: March 18, 2017 at 08:04 PM (#5419370)
So, Paul Konerko II?


Something along those lines. I'm thinking Ryan Klesko with better defense seems like a pretty good upside comp.

I can't believe that the Dodgers still have Ethier under contract.
   10. Walt Davis Posted: March 19, 2017 at 01:38 AM (#5419470)
In fairness, his AA line at 20 is a good match for Rizzo -- who rocked AAA at 21 (331/404/652). That would be a very nice outcome for him but Rizzo took a 2nd big step at 24.

Here's an interesting comp ... Rizzo vs Hosmer (Rizzo first)

age 19: 297/368/461 at A/A+ ... 241/334/361 at A/A+
age 20: 260/334/480 at A+/AA ... 338/406/571 at A+/AA
age 21: 331/404/652 at AAA ... 439/552/582 at AAA (118 PA)
age 21: 141/282/242 at MLB (135 PA) ... 293/334/465 at MLB (563 PA)
age 22: 342/405/696 at AAA ...
age 22: 285/342/463 at MLB (368 PA) ... 232/304/359 at MLB
age 23: 233/323/419 at MLB ... 302/353/448 at MLB

Close I suppose but you'd have to take Hosmer to that point. In MLB, Rizzo had about 1100 PA with a 101 OPS+; Hosmer wasn't much better in 1700 PA at 106. Hosmer had been better at ages 20, 21 and 23 at that point. In WAR terms, Rfield was very big on Rizzo's defense (+22) and down on Hosmer's (-12) which was enough to close the PT and batting gaps, thereby giving Rizzo a nice WAA edge. If you take Rfield at face value (or reasonably close) then you'd choose Rizzo.

Since then of course it's been terribly lopsided at 17 WAR to 5.5 ... or 14.3 oWAR to 5.7 oWAR. Rizzo's bat busted out, Hosmer's didn't. And the Cubs held Rizzo down long enough in 2012 to keep him under 1 year and got him to sign an FA buyout (it is at least a bit front-loaded in his favor).

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Phil Birnbaum
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOTP 20 November 2017: Sheriff’s official suspended 10 days over Cubs World Series sneak-in
(769 - 9:02pm, Nov 22)
Last: Joyful Calculus Instructor

NewsblogA Discussion of WAR Wherein I Ardently Attempt to Avoid any WAR-Related Puns | Sports-Reference.com
(46 - 8:54pm, Nov 22)
Last: cardsfanboy

NewsblogJoe Morgan Wants To Keep Steroid Cheats Out Of Baseball Hall Of Fame | MLB | NESN.com
(170 - 8:42pm, Nov 22)
Last: Booey

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 11-22-2017
(8 - 8:36pm, Nov 22)
Last: Infinite Yost (Voxter)

NewsblogProspectus Feature: Bill James vs. The Noise - Baseball Prospectus
(12 - 8:34pm, Nov 22)
Last: Toby

NewsblogOT - NBA 2017-2018 Tip-off Thread
(1506 - 8:04pm, Nov 22)
Last: Tin Angel

NewsblogOT - 2017 NFL thread
(178 - 8:01pm, Nov 22)
Last: Howie Menckel

NewsblogChambliss Ready to Part With Bat and Ball That Sent Yankees to World Series
(32 - 7:51pm, Nov 22)
Last: The Yankee Clapper

NewsblogSources: MLB hammers Atlanta Braves, declaring 12 minor league players free agents
(84 - 7:17pm, Nov 22)
Last: You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR)

NewsblogOT - November* 2017 College Football thread
(195 - 4:40pm, Nov 22)
Last: TDF didn't lie, he just didn't remember

NewsblogFinding the best spot for Giancarlo Stanton
(10 - 4:06pm, Nov 22)
Last: Tom Nawrocki

NewsblogWhat's next for Maitan and other former Braves | MLB.com
(9 - 2:41pm, Nov 22)
Last: The Yankee Clapper

Hall of Merit2018 Hall of Merit Ballot Discussion
(250 - 11:52am, Nov 22)
Last: Mike Emeigh

NewsblogShohei Ohtani MLB posting deal reached | MLB.com
(3 - 11:30am, Nov 22)
Last: sotapop

NewsblogOT: Winter Soccer Thread
(213 - 10:36am, Nov 22)
Last: Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine

Page rendered in 0.1697 seconds
47 querie(s) executed