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Saturday, June 16, 2018

Dodgers’ surprise ace makes All-Star case in win over Giants

Four starts ago, after Ross Stripling had lowered his earned-run average below that of Scherzer, the Dodgers’ pitcher frankly assessed the odds of finishing the season that way.

“Probably not super great,” Stripling said.

That was three weeks ago, and let’s check the latest leader board. After Stripling carried a shutout into the seventh inning of Friday’s 3-2 victory over the San Francisco Giants, his earned-run average stands at 1.76.

At the end of May 16, the Dodgers were 16-26. Since then, they’ve gone 20-6.

Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: June 16, 2018 at 02:00 PM | 97 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: dodgers, ross stripling

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   1. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: June 16, 2018 at 11:06 PM (#5693701)
Since then, they’ve gone 20-6.
Make that 21-6.
   2. Jess Franco Posted: June 16, 2018 at 11:08 PM (#5693704)
LAT can go #### itself.
   3. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: June 17, 2018 at 02:05 AM (#5693754)
For LA to still be afloat now is a testament to the team's depth and player-development system.
   4. Jess Franco Posted: June 17, 2018 at 10:08 AM (#5693788)
Fans will be fans, and I can't blame people grumbling a month back when they were ten games under getting beat by the Reds and Marlins. But no excuse for a press that hates the FO and does nothing to enlighten them as to how the Dodgers are effectively spending all that money, why it is better to enrich the soil on the farm and deal for guys like Taylor and Muncy* rather than go out and pay for a Hosmer, or deal Seager away for Cole Hamels.

Obviously trading for Grandal was huge, and the Gordon deal to get Hernandez and Barnes. Not to mention the unorthodox building of a pitching staff. It's a 40-man major league roter effectively, and a big part of why a lot of people say "they're not very good."

Be interesting to see how Ferguson does today. He looked scared to death in Pittsburgh, but made it to the fifth last time out. Helps to have that defense behind you.


*Muncy was a minor league deal after the A's released him last year. Online comment: "Sigh. More Dodgers front office wishful thinking."
   5. Panik on the streets of London (Trout! Trout!) Posted: June 17, 2018 at 10:12 AM (#5693790)
I'm not a Dodger fan, but the interesting way they do things makes me inclined to pull for them. Plus maybe anecdotal evidence but I have never met an obnoxious Dodger fan.
   6. filihok Posted: June 17, 2018 at 10:39 AM (#5693793)
maybe anecdotal evidence but I have never met an obnoxious Dodger fan.

I can point you in the direction of a couple blogs

Also, some Dodgers fans literally beat a Giants fan to death.
   7. PreservedFish Posted: June 17, 2018 at 10:44 AM (#5693794)
Prediction: TroutTrout has never been to Los Angeles.
   8. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 17, 2018 at 10:45 AM (#5693795)
I'm not a Dodger fan, but the interesting way they do things makes me inclined to pull for them.

Funny, I'm exactly the opposite. People that openly act like they're smarter than everyone else annoy me.

Also, I think there's a lot more luck than skill in turning out guys like Muncy and Taylor and Shipling. Just like I don't give the Yankee front office much credit for Judge. They had no idea he had this ability.
   9. Jess Franco Posted: June 17, 2018 at 10:49 AM (#5693797)
The Giants fan survived, actually. Not so this Dodgers fan.

Chalk both up to territoriality and flying rival gang colors in the wrong neighborhood. California baseball fans are generally a laid-back lot.
   10. Panik on the streets of London (Trout! Trout!) Posted: June 17, 2018 at 11:02 AM (#5693798)
Prediction: TroutTrout has never been to Los Angeles.


I have been to LA a few times. I do know quite a few obnoxious Lakers fans. I admit that locality is a major contributing factor. Fair enough. I did say anecdotal evidence.
   11. McCoy Posted: June 17, 2018 at 11:03 AM (#5693799)
Ive seen nothing to indicate the Brian stow attack was gang related. 2 drunk dodger fans looking for a fight ended up attack the giant seated nearby them in the parking lot after the game.
   12. Jess Franco Posted: June 17, 2018 at 11:09 AM (#5693800)

skill in turning out guys like Muncy and Taylor and Shipling. Just like I don't give the Yankee front office much credit for Judge. They had no idea he had this ability.


Actually, the Yankkees did. They had a key draft guy on him since high school.

But you make a good point -- putting too much money down on high draft picks will get you nowhere. The better deal is topan for gold with a lot of still young "washouts" withwith the tools to succeed. Once you do this a half-dozen times or more, it's not just luck.
   13. Panik on the streets of London (Trout! Trout!) Posted: June 17, 2018 at 11:11 AM (#5693801)
2 drunk dodger fans looking for a fight ended up attack the giant seated nearby them in the parking lot after the game.


I never want to see that happen to anyone and never said that no obnoxious Dodger fans exist, merely that I haven't met any of them. Perhaps that seems like a small distinction, but if I come into contact with several people that support a team obnoxiously (at work or something for instance) it is going to influence the way I feel about said team. If obnoxious Dodger fans are a major thing for others(presumably mostly in southern California) then I retract my statement.
   14. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 17, 2018 at 11:17 AM (#5693803)
Actually, the Yankkees did. They had a key draft guy on him since high school.

Then why didn't they draft him out of HS? The A's took him in the 31st round.
   15. Jess Franco Posted: June 17, 2018 at 11:38 AM (#5693809)
Because they had thr info he was heading to Fresno anyway?

Both the Yankees and Dodgers have nearly unlimited resources to attack from all angles. I look forward to another Series showdown before too long.
   16. Jess Franco Posted: June 17, 2018 at 11:40 AM (#5693813)
People are obnoxious everywhere. It's an acquired skill to sense whether they are violently so, but it's best to assume the stick is a snake and not the other way around.
   17. Panik on the streets of London (Trout! Trout!) Posted: June 17, 2018 at 11:48 AM (#5693818)
@JessFranco--honestly just curious what team do you root for primarily?
   18. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: June 17, 2018 at 11:57 AM (#5693823)
I live in LA (Pasadena), having moved here three years ago from Arizona. I've noticed...

In Arizona, Diamondbacks fans and the media (same diff, yah) DESPISE the Dodgers. However, they're not all that bent out of shape by the Lakers. I guess decades of beatdowns does that to people.

Locally, I've found Lakers fans to be far more obnoxious than Dodgers fans.
   19. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 17, 2018 at 12:07 PM (#5693833)
Because they had thr info he was heading to Fresno anyway?

They knew Gerrit Cole was going to UCLA, and still drafted him in the first round.
   20. Jess Franco Posted: June 17, 2018 at 12:22 PM (#5693840)
I'm a lifelong Braves fan who swore off them during the Coppy regime, specifically when they traded Simmons. I took up the Dodgers, who I've always liked three seasons back, and was crushed when they lost last fall... which may be true for the team as well. Ironically, the poor start drew me back. Plus I love Redbeard.

Being on the East Coast, I am better able to watch EDT games, so I decided to phollow the Phillies this season and see how Kapler does. Nice young team with a Dogers influence, except they are TERRIBLE with the glove, playing too many guys out of position. Nice young pitching staff, too.

I prefer NL baseball to the AL, but with At Bat, I'll surf over and watch the Yankees some. I definitely prefer traditional teams who play smart baseball. I know such surfing is frowned upon by hardcore fans, but the fact is I prefer a certain amount of detachment, not just in baseball but in life.

My heart has a lot of scars.
   21. Jess Franco Posted: June 17, 2018 at 12:27 PM (#5693845)
I think Judge was early Judged as a super talented project, cole as a blue chip pitcher. There's a reason Judge took a while to blossom.

None of this stuff is science, nor do you get to pick every desirable egg in the henhouse. It's a gamblers game. In the Judge piece I read, the Yamkees scouting guy kept his cards close to the vest and didn't let on they were super interested in Judge. I believe he was their second first-round pick that year.
   22. Panik on the streets of London (Trout! Trout!) Posted: June 17, 2018 at 12:28 PM (#5693847)
I'm a lifelong Braves fan who swore off them during the Coppy regime, specifically when they traded Simmons. I took up the Dodgers, who I've always liked three seasons back, and was crushed when they lost last fall... which may be true for the team as well. Ironically, the poor start drew me back. Plus I love Redbeard.

Being on the East Coast, I am better able to watch EDT games, so I decided to phollow the Phillies this season and see how Kapler does. Nice young team with a Dogers influence, except they are TERRIBLE with the glove, playing too many guys out of position. Nice young pitching staff, too.

I prefer NL baseball to the AL, but with At Bat, I'll surf over and watch the Yankees some. I definitely prefer traditional teams who play smart baseball. I know such surfing is frowned upon by hardcore fans, but the fact is I prefer a certain amount of detachment, not just in baseball but in life.

My heart has a lot of scars.


Thank you for the explanation. I always find people's rooting habits interesting. I've always been a Mets fan, but if I didn't watch other games or root for other teams I would lose my mind for obvious reasons. I rooted for the Cubs for awhile when I lived in Chicago; but my cube mate now is a super annoying Cubs fanboy so it's difficult for me to hope they win. I was pulling for the Angels at the start of the season too, but now they are fading from the race. Hopefully they can snag a WC spot.
   23. McCoy Posted: June 17, 2018 at 01:32 PM (#5693877)
This is kind of weird. Judge was drafted by the Yankees in the first round. The idea that it was pure luck that the Yankees got talent is kind of absurd and pointing out that he wasn't drafted until the 31st round out of high school is kind of absurd. Lots of players get either drafted really low out of high school or not at all that go much higher later on. Mark Prior was drafted in the 43rd round out of high school before the Cubs drafted him. Does that mean the Cubs had no idea Mark Prior could be good?

Aaron Judge was brought to spring training in 2015 after only one season in low A ball the year prior. They put him in the Futures Game that year and promoted him to AAA in June. They brought him to spring training again in 2016, he made the AAA all star team but did not play because of injury. They then brought him up in August and made him the opening day starer for 2017. Now I'm sure an easy argument can be made that the Yankees didn't know they had an 8 WAR player who would 52 homers in his rookie season but that would be a silly argument. The Yankees quite clearly viewed Judge as one of the most talented prospects on draft day and viewed him highly from the get go once he got into their system.
   24. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 17, 2018 at 01:45 PM (#5693882)
This is kind of weird. Judge was drafted by the Yankees in the first round. The idea that it was pure luck that the Yankees got talent is kind of absurd

I didn't say it was pure luck, I said they had no idea what he would become. They had no inkling he'd ever put up an 8 WAR season. No one did.

The Yankees quite clearly viewed Judge as one of the most talented prospects on draft day

I'd dispute that. The Yankees picked him after Eric freaking Jagiello. If they thought he had even a 5-10% chance of becoming what he is, they would have taken him 26th.

They get credit for identifying a solid major league regular. The extra 5 WAR per year is pure luck.
   25. McCoy Posted: June 17, 2018 at 01:50 PM (#5693884)
Oy
   26. Tom Nawrocki Posted: June 17, 2018 at 01:55 PM (#5693886)
I didn't say it was pure luck, I said they had no idea what he would become. They had no inkling he'd ever put up an 8 WAR season. No one did.


I am the last person who wants to defend the Yankees, but I think this is ridiculous. It's possible the Yankees saw Judge as a very raw talent who might someday be able to put things together. Maybe they thought there was a 95% chance he'd never make it out of A ball, but a 5% chance he'd become a superstar.

They made a better decision on Judge than every other team in baseball, except the Cubs, who took Kris Bryant ahead of him. They deserve credit for that, not to have it dismissed as "luck."
   27. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 17, 2018 at 02:07 PM (#5693889)
They made a better decision on Judge than every other team in baseball, except the Cubs, who took Kris Bryant ahead of him. They deserve credit for that, not to have it dismissed as "luck."

All I'm saying is that people massively overrate the competence of successful front offices and underrate the competence of unsuccessful ones.

Nobody in baseball knew Judge would become what he did. Just like nobody knew Trout would become what he is.

A ton of baseball success is luck. Which prospects develop vs. which stagnate. Who gets hurt, who doesn't. Who develops a drinking/drug problem. Who has family issues.

The same Yankees GM that assembled Judge/Sanchez/Severino/Torres/Andujar, also presided over 10 years where they didn't develop anybody. He was likely very unlucky in the earlier period, and very lucky in the recent one.

Cashman's 1st rounders before Judge have been Mark Prior (didn't sign), Andy Brown, Dave Walling, Dave Parrish, Johns Skaggs, Bronson Sardinha, John Ford-Griffin, Eric Duncan, Jeff Marquez, John Poterson, Phil Hughes, CJ Henry, Joba Chamberlain, Andrew Brackman, Jeremy Bleich, Gerrit Cole (didn't sign), Slade Heathcott, Cito Culver, Dante Bichette, Ty Hensley, and Ian Clarkin.

That's objectively awful. 22 picks yielded only 3 decent players, and no stars.

I don't believe he was an idiot back then. I don't believe he's a genius now. He's average to above, and was unlucky for a long while, and now is getting the breaks.
   28. McCoy Posted: June 17, 2018 at 02:55 PM (#5693897)
How many good players should we expect to draft over 20 years with a pick between the 20th to to the 45th pick?
   29. McCoy Posted: June 17, 2018 at 03:06 PM (#5693901)
1998-First round picks of value after Yankes pick: Brad Wilkerson, Aaron Rowand, and Mark Prior with of course the Yankees drafting Mark Prior.
1999-Brian Roberts
2000-Adam Wainright, Kelly Johnson
2001-Noah Lowry, David Wright
2002-No pick
2003-Carlos Quentin, Adam Jones
2004-Gio Gonzalez, Huston Street
2005-Cliff Pennington, Jacoby Ellsbury, Matt Garza, Colby Rasmus, Clay Buckholz, Jed Lowrie
2006-Yankees drafted the two highest performing players available to them from their spot on.
2007-Todd Frazier, Josh Donaldson
2008-Yankees drafted the best player from their spot on.
2009-James Paxton
2010-Noah Syndergaard
   30. Jess Franco Posted: June 17, 2018 at 04:39 PM (#5693929)

The extra 5 WAR per year is pure luck.


You can say this about nearly every player*. I think we all tend to underestimate how difficult baseball is any way you look at it. Money helps the top clubs most of all, but some are better at finding the marginal edges that make a difference.


You can say this about every person, period. Life is a crapshoot.
   31. Count Vorror Rairol Mencoon (CoB) Posted: June 17, 2018 at 05:09 PM (#5693944)
To whit the drafting of Aaron Judge ... An Oral History of Yankees Drafting Aaron Judge from MLB.com that came out a few weeks ago.

Excerpt:


Damon Oppenheimer, Yankees vice president of domestic amateur scouting: We recognized that there was future big, raw power; we had future-plus-power numbers on him there. In our mind, we thought, "This guy's got potential, but college is probably going to be the best route for him."

The Athletics selected Judge with their pick in the 31st round of the 2010 Draft, perhaps hoping the opportunity to play less than 90 miles from home would persuade him to skip college and turn pro.

Matt Curtis, Fresno State coach: The power was the last thing to come; he never had a big power surge in high school. With Aaron on the professional side, it was more projection than performance.

Damon Oppenheimer, Yankees: You get to a point where sometimes it's a local guy, sometimes it's somebody you're taking just a wild shot that maybe this guy will all of a sudden want to go play for the right amount of money. My guess is [the A's] had a pretty good feeling he was going to go to college.

Judge was honored to be drafted by Oakland, but he turned down the chance to sign -- not to mention recruitment by several football schools -- to attend Fresno State on a baseball scholarship.

Aaron Judge: When you get the opportunity like that, getting drafted -- especially by Oakland, a California team, pretty close to home -- it was tempting. At the time, I just didn't think I was ready or mature enough mentally or physically to start pro ball.

Jermaine Clark, Athletics: He was a 31st-round high school kid with a scholarship to a powerhouse college program whose parents graduated from that college. When you factor in everything that was in play, there was no way we were going to sign him.


The whole thing is worth a read, I almost posted it when it came out.

[edit] I believe this is the piece that Jess mentions above.
   32. Jess Franco Posted: June 17, 2018 at 05:16 PM (#5693947)
That's it. Danke.
   33. McCoy Posted: June 17, 2018 at 05:34 PM (#5693957)
For Snapper, from the link

Damon Oppenheimer, Yankees: I get my first oral report from Matt Hyde. He tells me, "Hey Damon, when you're up here, make sure you spend some time seeing Aaron Judge. He's really made progress, he's got big power, he's swinging the bat well, and he plays center field." Brian Barber, our national crosschecker, submitted a report, and it's got 80 raw power, 65 arm, 50 run, a future 55 hitter and future 70 power. That gets him up high on our follow board. When we see sevens and eights, it's like diamonds: [Bryce] Harper, [Mike] Trout, A-Rod [Alex Rodriguez] kind of guys.
   34. McCoy Posted: June 17, 2018 at 05:39 PM (#5693962)
Damon Oppenheimer, Yankees: We did our recon and the work that our scouts do. We thought we could get [Judge] where we got him. There was some risk in taking Jagielo over Judge, but we felt that was the move.

Jim Hendry, Yankees: I don't think any of us thought [Judge] would go before 20, but after 20, all bets are off. Jagielo would have gone the next pick to Cincinnati.

Billy Eppler, Yankees: Damon slid the magnet on the board and said, "This is the guy we're taking next if he's there."

The Yankees weren't the only team holding their breath with regard to Judge. The D-backs were convinced they would get the slugger at No. 36. Even Judge seemed to believe he was headed to Arizona.

Ray Montgomery, D-backs: I thought that [Judge] and [No. 2 pick Kris] Bryant were probably the only two guys that had that 40-home-run potential. I was handicapping it strongly that [Judge] was going to be a D-back.

Jim Hendry, Yankees: That just goes to prove that Damon runs his department and carries himself in a way that, as a general manager, you'd want him to. Why would you ever show your cards to somebody else that you might have interest?

Brian Barber, Yankees: We were nervous. We had three picks, and we spent months leading up to it with scenario after scenario after scenario of how we could maximize those picks. Those minutes leading up to it, the 20 minutes between 26 and 32, the heart rate was definitely elevated.
   35. PreservedFish Posted: June 17, 2018 at 06:00 PM (#5693985)
There's no question that snapper is broadly correct about the role that luck plays. Nobody writes the article where the Yankees had 7's and 8's on Slade Heathcott and were stunned that he dropped to them. And if the Yanks really think that Judge is a Harper or ARod level talent, there's no way they play games with their two picks, no matter how good their intel was on other teams' intentions.
   36. Jess Franco Posted: June 17, 2018 at 06:19 PM (#5693991)
They say I shot a man named Gray
And took his wife to Italy
She inherited a million bucks
And when she died it came to me
I can't help it if I'm lucky
   37. McCoy Posted: June 17, 2018 at 06:27 PM (#5693995)
There's no question that snapper is broadly correct about the role that luck plays. Nobody writes the article where the Yankees had 7's and 8's on Slade Heathcott and were stunned that he dropped to them. And if the Yanks really think that Judge is a Harper or ARod level talent, there's no way they play games with their two picks, no matter how good their intel was on other teams' intentions.

Trout according to the MLB scouting bureau was a 6/6 hitter/power guy just before the draft and Harper was a 7/7. So if the Yanks aren't blowing too much smoke up our butts when giving out their numbers they've basically had Judge on the same plane as Trout (at least as far as a hitter goes) and just a notch below Harper so yes it does appear they played games with the drafting of their players in that first round.
   38. McCoy Posted: June 17, 2018 at 06:45 PM (#5694005)
A White Sox scouting report on Bryce Harper had him as a future 55/65 hitter/power and the MLB scouting Bureau had Adrian Gonzalez as a 6/6 and they gave Josh Hamilton a 5/7 the year before he got drafted.
   39. Walt Davis Posted: June 17, 2018 at 07:37 PM (#5694027)
So instead of getting lucky, the Yanks were dumb enough to let him slip down the draft because ... they have the best spies in the industry or had hacked into every team's servers and were 100% confident nobody would take him?

So in one scenario, they're lucky; in the other scenario, they're dumb and lucky.

Again, the argument in favor of the Yanks' genius is that they knowingly put a potential star player at risk in order to draft Eric Jagielo, who is now 26, a career minor league slash line of 235/331/388 and 142 PA above AA. So the same draft department that recognized not just the superstar potential but the likely star outcome of Aaron Judge ... thought Jagielo would be even better? thought he'd be nearly as good?

We put too much emphasis on the draft itself and we pay far too little attention to develop and too little attention to "OK, now that we get to see this guy up close ..." For nearly every GM, we don't have enough picks to judge their drafting ability (i.e. their ability to build a consistently good draft team). Cashman is one of the few where we do ... and it's a mixed bunch.

There are some early Pujols scouting reports at that scouting report site. The pre-draft one says basically "this kid has a shot." Then there's one after he's been in the minors a few weeks which says basically "this kid will be an average MLer"; then there's one from not much later which basically says something like "this kid will be an above-average MLer."

So the Cards really had no idea what they had when they drafted Pujols although, based on that scouting report, there was at least one scout who thought he had a shot (which is more than enough to justify a 14th round pick). But after getting him, they quickly and reasonably accurately recognized how lucky they'd been.

Judge's minor-league history that McCoy details seems (to me) to fit better with "now that we see him up close, this kid is better than we thought and better than his minor-league performance suggests" or "wow, now that we fixed that hitch in his swing, this kid has leaped forward."

Finally of course it's luck. That doesn't mean that "skill" and "knowledge" don't play a role or even that the Yanks aren't better than other teams. But any time the noise swamps the signal, the result is "luck." Players drafted where Judge was probably have no better than a 1 in 10 shot of being any kind of player. Maybe the Yanks were smart enough to realize that, for Judge, that was 1 in 5.** So "the Yanks drafted smarter than other teams that year" and "the Yanks got tremendously lucky" are not mutually exclusive.

** and smart enough to know that nobody else that could steal him thought that much of him.
   40. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: June 17, 2018 at 07:43 PM (#5694029)
In 2016 at the age of 24, Judge had an .854 OPS in AAA and a .608 OPS in 95 major league PA (striking out nearly half the time). That's not determinative for a career, but you couldn't possibly have predicted what he's done since then. I'd say that's the lucky part.
   41. McCoy Posted: June 17, 2018 at 07:49 PM (#5694033)
thought Jagielo would be even better? thought he'd be nearly as good?

According to the Yankees they believed that the Reds would have drafted him one pick later while they believed only the Diamondbacks would go after Judge and they were drafting after the Yankees second pick.


Judge's minor-league history that McCoy details seems (to me) to fit better with "now that we see him up close, this kid is better than we thought and better than his minor-league performance suggests" or "wow, now that we fixed that hitch in his swing, this kid has leaped forward."

Again, according to the link the Yankees thought they had a Bryce Harper/ARod/Mike Trout type hitter on their hands when they drafted him. I don't know how often it is done but they had him going out their for batting practice with the rest of the major leaguers almost immediately after drafting him and he was cranking out bombs left and right. Judge also hit very well in the minors. He slumped a bit in his first call up to AAA (have no idea if he was injured or not) but they sent him out there to start the next year and then called him up for good in August. His entire track record with the Yankees is of a player the Yankees had absolute confidence in succeeding for them.
   42. Howie Menckel Posted: June 17, 2018 at 07:50 PM (#5694034)
kudos to the Dylan reference in 36
   43. Jess Franco Posted: June 17, 2018 at 08:07 PM (#5694045)
No denying its mostly luck. That's why you play every angle. Definitely don't depend upon draft picks.
   44. PreservedFish Posted: June 17, 2018 at 08:09 PM (#5694046)
Again, according to the link the Yankees thought they had a Bryce Harper/ARod/Mike Trout type hitter on their hands when they drafted him.

I wonder what they thought they had in Jagielo, a Ruth/Williams/Bonds type hitter?
   45. McCoy Posted: June 17, 2018 at 08:30 PM (#5694058)
I wonder what they thought they had in Jagielo, a Ruth/Williams/Bonds type hitter?

Fangraphs did an article in January of 2015 by Kiley McDaniel that rated Judge up to that point really well and had Jagielo at a 45/50 future value hitter. MLB put him at 45/60 to start 2015 as well. Baseball America after the 2013 draft had a column in which they looked at the Yankees picks and they tabbed Jagielo raching the majors first.

In 2014 he got hit and broke his face and then tore a muscle in his leg or something like that on a slide home. I think he also got injured in 2015 as well and it appears he hit some sort of wall or lost his concentration because he absolutely crated in 2016. In looking at some players I've seen that happen before and my own personal theory is that they give up or become demoralized at that point and their numbers crater. Don't know if that happened to him or if it was something else but he looked on track to become a major leaguer in 2015.

edit: Deeper look shows he injured his knee in 2015 and not 2014. So he got hit in the face in 2014 and missed significant time and then missed significant time in 2015 and it appears he couldn't come back fully restored in 2016.
   46. PreservedFish Posted: June 17, 2018 at 08:49 PM (#5694074)
So I'm not sure what you're arguing here McCoy. Snapper said that the Yanks deserve credit for drafting a solid major leaguer in Judge, but that his sudden and unexpected development into MVP quality is luck. That seems accurate to me. I guess you can hedge and say they did a nice job by gambling on a guy with big physical potential and good work ethic, but of course that's not unusual, everyone is looking for those factors. What Judge did was nearly unprecedented and unpredictable. He was actually moving backwards in the prospect rankings last winter.

That the Yanks had a few scouts that were high on Judge is not surprising. Every team is high on their first round draft pick. Most of them think they're lucky that their guy fell to their spot. Some Yankee scout once thought that John Ford-Griffin would be an All-Star. Another thought Ty Hensley had a 70 fastball. And whoever was calling the shots happily gambled on losing Aaron Judge in order to guarantee that he got Eric Jagielo. The Judge oral history is fun to read but I think you could write the same story about just about any other draft pick: a few teams liked a prospect more than most other teams did, and one of them ended up drafting him. It would be almost impossible for scouts not to gild the lily in retelling the story. And victory has many fathers.
   47. McCoy Posted: June 17, 2018 at 09:05 PM (#5694087)
We don't just have oral history we also have their scouting reports where the teams actually put in written form what they think the player will do in the future. We also have how the teams treated their players within their system. What do we have for Judge? We know the Yankees drafted him in the first round, we know they rated him very highly, we know they moved him quickly through the minors, we know they showcased him in the minors, we know they had him working with the major league team in their spring training camps in his first two professional years and they had him working out with the major league team almost right after he was drafted. We know they called him up and let him struggle and still gave him the starting job to open the next season. All of this absolutely points to a player they were incredibly confident in and had high hopes for. As I said way back in the beginning I don't think the Yankees were penciling him in for 8 WAR seasons in his first two full professional seasons but they thought and have acted like from day one that they had a special player.
   48. Tom Nawrocki Posted: June 17, 2018 at 09:32 PM (#5694105)
So the same draft department that recognized not just the superstar potential but the likely star outcome of Aaron Judge ... thought Jagielo would be even better? thought he'd be nearly as good?


So if a team drafts two players in the first round, and only one of them becomes a superstar, we should assume they don't know what they're doing? Really? A team has to hit on every one of its draftees for us to not throw up our hands and say "luck"?

Maybe one out of ten first round draftees becomes a star. But unless every single player a team drafts becomes a star, we can't say if they made a good decision or not on the player who did become a star. Right.
   49. Jess Franco Posted: June 17, 2018 at 09:40 PM (#5694111)
And victory has many fathers.


But one of them deserves to be called Daddy.
   50. McCoy Posted: June 17, 2018 at 09:51 PM (#5694115)
Or Papi.
   51. Howie Menckel Posted: June 17, 2018 at 09:57 PM (#5694119)
Some Yankee scout once thought that John Ford-Griffin would be an All-Star.

random: I was in the press box for this "debut." they always sound right - if you are a skeptic at that moment, you are a cynic. let's say there's a chance.
   52. PreservedFish Posted: June 18, 2018 at 07:19 AM (#5694183)
So if a team drafts two players in the first round, and only one of them becomes a superstar, we should assume they don't know what they're doing? Really? A team has to hit on every one of its draftees for us to not throw up our hands and say "luck"?

Maybe one out of ten first round draftees becomes a star. But unless every single player a team drafts becomes a star, we can't say if they made a good decision or not on the player who did become a star. Right.


Of course not. The point with Jagielo is that it undermines the credibility of the argument that the Yankees knew Judge was a future star the entire time.
   53. Jess Franco Posted: June 18, 2018 at 07:54 AM (#5694189)
Who made that argument again? Go back to snapper's first statement -- the Yankees had no idea about Judge. No idea.

Why not just flip a coin?
   54. McCoy Posted: June 18, 2018 at 09:00 AM (#5694207)
How does jagielo undermine anything about the Yankee scouting process? He was a good prospect who performed well until he got hurt with two sort of flukish accidents.
   55. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 18, 2018 at 09:30 AM (#5694222)
Who made that argument again? Go back to snapper's first statement -- the Yankees had no idea about Judge. No idea.

Why not just flip a coin?


Not what I said. I said they had no idea he could be an 8 WAR player. They obviously thought he had a shot at being a decent regular. You don't draft guys in the 1st round if you don't think that.

How does jagielo undermine anything about the Yankee scouting process? He was a good prospect who performed well until he got hurt with two sort of flukish accidents.

It completely undermines the idea that they thought he was a Harper/Trout/ARod type talent. You don't risk losing that kind of talent so you can pick Eric freaking Jagiello.

No one gets that cute if they think they found a future MVP.
   56. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: June 18, 2018 at 10:12 AM (#5694245)
People that openly act like they're smarter than everyone else annoy me.


Every day must be an existential crisis for yourself.


   57. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 18, 2018 at 10:25 AM (#5694249)
Every day must be an existential crisis for yourself.

Nah, I only act smarter than people when I can tell I actually am.
   58. Mike Emeigh Posted: June 18, 2018 at 10:51 AM (#5694275)
All I'm saying is that people massively overrate the competence of successful front offices and underrate the competence of unsuccessful ones.

Nobody in baseball knew Judge would become what he did. Just like nobody knew Trout would become what he is.


I subscribe to Branch Rickey's dictum - "Luck is the residue of design."

The Yankees have not had a losing record since 1992. A lot of very smart people have been predicting for years that the Yankees were going to crash and burn very soon, and it was going to be ugly, but they've managed to retool without suffering through a string of 75-win seasons. The worst stretch since then is the one that they went through from 2013-2016, and they still averaged 85 wins per season.

If you have the right processes in place and the right people to execute them, you will be "lucky" more often than not.

-- MWE
   59. Jess Franco Posted: June 18, 2018 at 11:25 AM (#5694311)
Well stated, Mike.
   60. Jess Franco Posted: June 18, 2018 at 11:26 AM (#5694313)
Not that Cashman is all that if Goose wanted to stuff him in a trash can.
   61. McCoy Posted: June 18, 2018 at 11:53 AM (#5694339)
It completely undermines the idea that they thought he was a Harper/Trout/ARod type talent. You don't risk losing that kind of talent so you can pick Eric freaking Jagiello.

No one gets that cute if they think they found a future MVP.



Your all or nothing approach to this is kind of pointless. Your point seems to be that the Yankees didn't know they would have an 8 WAR a year player but instead would get a 3 WAR a year player and thus shouldn't get credit for finding what looks to be a great player. Um, ok. Finding a 3 WAR a year player is hard to begin with so even that knock isn't a knock but a huge kudos. But to the point of what the Yankees though we have what they actually did and what we have is a guy that was rated on the level of Harper and Trout getting drafted second by the Yankees. You can't say they wouldn't do that when in fact they did that. You are free to argue that before the draft but it is absolutely ridiculous to argue that after it actually happened. You have absolutely no proof other than your absolute certainty that the Yankees didn't view Judge in any way different than they claim.
   62. PreservedFish Posted: June 18, 2018 at 01:24 PM (#5694426)
Because the story defies belief.
   63. McCoy Posted: June 18, 2018 at 02:06 PM (#5694469)
So it's all just a lie?
   64. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: June 18, 2018 at 02:10 PM (#5694473)
No. It's just wildly exaggerated after the fact for the sake of Narrative.
   65. McCoy Posted: June 18, 2018 at 02:25 PM (#5694486)
Which parts? The part where they drafted him in the first round? The part where they had him hitting the major leaguers almost immediately? The part where they brought him to spring training after his first professional season? The part where they quickly moved him up the system? The part where they made him a starter as soon he got called up? The part where he was the Yankees opening day starter in 2017?

Every single indicator we have for Judge and the Yankees shows over and over that they valued to a high degree and had great confidence that he was going to be a good player very quickly.
   66. PreservedFish Posted: June 18, 2018 at 02:27 PM (#5694491)
Every single indicator we have for Judge and the Yankees shows over and over that they valued to a high degree and had great confidence that he was going to be a good player very quickly.

The entire argument, this entire thread, deals with the distance between "good player" and what Judge is now, an MVP- and HOF-level talent.
   67. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: June 18, 2018 at 02:31 PM (#5694497)
And, as noted a bunch of times, teams tend to be optimistic about their first round picks. When that first round pick is an older draftee and excels from the start in the minors, it takes no special insight to move him along the way the Yankees did.
   68. McCoy Posted: June 18, 2018 at 02:38 PM (#5694507)
So apparently the only proof capable of convincing you is failure. If Judge, or in this case Jagielo, fails it is proof that the Yankees scouting and development isn't very good but when Judge does well it just chalked up to luck. As Emeigh has stated if what the Yankees have done under Cashman isn't because of skill and competence then the Yankees are the luckiest team in the history of sports.
   69. Panik on the streets of London (Trout! Trout!) Posted: June 18, 2018 at 02:49 PM (#5694528)
the Yankees are the luckiest team in the history of sports.


this is probably true either way; but I don't want to interfere in your disagreement.
   70. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: June 18, 2018 at 02:50 PM (#5694529)
Judge failing wouldn't be proof of the Yankees' ineptitude any more than his success is proof of their brilliance, and no one said as much. In fact, failure would be weighted less in any sort of calculation, because failure is the default for a late first round pick. Data points are data points.
   71. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 19, 2018 at 09:46 AM (#5695041)
If you have the right processes in place and the right people to execute them, you will be "lucky" more often than not.


Then why was Cashman unlucky for 15 years? He can't have been a morn at drafting and development for 15 years, and all of a sudden became a genius.

If it's the personnel under him, then why did he continue with poor results for 15 years?
   72. Jess Franco Posted: June 19, 2018 at 09:55 AM (#5695052)
Poor results? Damn Yankees.



   73. McCoy Posted: June 19, 2018 at 10:12 AM (#5695068)
Then why was Cashman unlucky for 15 years? He can't have been a morn at drafting and development for 15 years, and all of a sudden became a genius.

If it's the personnel under him, then why did he continue with poor results for 15 years?


Damned if he does and damned if he doesn't? Because they didn't do well 10 years ago means they couldn't do well 5 years ago?

They spotted and drafted a player that they believed would be good and he turned out good that nobody before them drafted. That is proof of nothing apparently.
   74. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 19, 2018 at 10:19 AM (#5695076)
Damned if he does and damned if he doesn't? Because they didn't do well 10 years ago means they couldn't do well 5 years ago?

They spotted and drafted a player that they believed would be good and he turned out good that nobody before them drafted. That is proof of nothing apparently.


No. You're missing my whole point.

He wasn't an idiot when he drafted John Skaggs, and Eric Jagiello, and he wasn't a genius when he drafted Judge. He was a somewhat above average GM the whole time who got unlucky for a while, and then got really lucky with Judge. For fricks sake, all the evidence is that he thought Eric Jagiello was a better player than Aaron Judge.
   75. Jess Franco Posted: June 19, 2018 at 10:32 AM (#5695092)

People that openly act like they're smarter than everyone else annoy me.


With a nod towards Mike above, it'd be interesting to read an oral history of BBTF and the contributions it sparked in sabermetrics from back in the day. Unfortunately, like a baseball player with some great peak years and a pretty good career, things are winding to a close. The proprietor has closed off new registrations, and it seems like a smart move to me. You still have knowledgeable people chiming in, but mostly you have annoying people annoyed by smarter folks.

I'm not saying I'm any kind of genius on that front. When I'm not being a grouch (see my first comment), I pick out the dumbest argument to rebut, and from somebody who is reliably... consistent on that front. I might even suggest that the fact that snapper and McCoy have over 80,000 posts between them is a good indicator one shouldn't help them pad the count.

Look -- at the end of Spring Training last season, the Yankees had Severino penciled in at fourth starter and almost made Judge their fourth outfielder. They were just using all thr available evidence they had to that point, and weren't trying to predict the future, just trying to make the best decision they could. They couldn't predict those two so quickly blossoming to not only the top of their class, but tops in the majors.

But I wouldn't think you'd conclude they were rolling dice against the Stadium facade, either.


I like the Dodgers, and like their mgmt applying #### they learned in the economically lean environments of Tampa and Oakland to a rich club like El Lay. I enjoy watching their "not very good" club win so many ballgames. It'll be interesting to see what they do once they've shed the last of sunk costs of underperforming vets. Honestly, I might not like it if they sign one or two of those big free agents like their press and their fans expect them too.

'Nuff of my smarty pants contributions on the topic.
   76. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 19, 2018 at 10:36 AM (#5695095)
Look -- at the end of Spring Training last season, the Yankees had Severino penciled in at fourth starter and almost made Judge their fourth outfielder. They were just using all thr available evidence they had to that point, and weren't trying to predict the future, just trying to make the best decision they could. They couldn't predict those two so quickly blossoming to not only the top of their class, but tops in the majors.

But I wouldn't think you'd conclude they were rolling dice against the Stadium facade, either.


Completely agree. Never said it was random. Just that there's a lot of luck in the final outcome.
   77. McCoy Posted: June 19, 2018 at 10:46 AM (#5695106)
He wasn't an idiot when he drafted John Skaggs, and Eric Jagiello, and he wasn't a genius when he drafted Judge. He was a somewhat above average GM the whole time who got unlucky for a while, and then got really lucky with Judge. For fricks sake, all the evidence is that he thought Eric Jagiello was a better player than Aaron Judge.


Your all the evidence seems to come down to draft spot and there is evidence explaining why they drafted the two where they did.
   78. Jess Franco Posted: June 19, 2018 at 10:51 AM (#5695114)
I appreciate that, snapper. And I appreciate how you are willing to give some ground in argument instead of digging in. Human nature being what it is.
   79. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 19, 2018 at 10:53 AM (#5695115)
Your all the evidence seems to come down to draft spot and there is evidence explaining why they drafted the two where they did.

Yes, because if Cashman thought Judge was a Harper/ARod/Trout type player (as you claim) he'd be an absolute fool to risk losing him in order to have a slightly better chance to secure Eric Jagiello. That's just not logical.

The only logical conclusion is that the Yankees thought Jagiello and Judge were roughly equivalent, and that Judge had a better chance of being available at their 2nd pick.
   80. McCoy Posted: June 19, 2018 at 11:16 AM (#5695136)
The only logical conclusion is that the Yankees thought Jagiello and Judge were roughly equivalent, and that Judge had a better chance of being available at their 2nd pick.

Scouts were all over MLB were high on Jagielo as well internet sites. The fact that his career got derailed by injuries does not prove that the Yankees thought Judge would do worse than Jagielo's real world results.

It is quite possible and probable that the Yankees thought both players were going to be good. Every indication from Jagielo's first part of his career shows that he would be good. The Yankees wanted both and according to them if they had drafted Judge first Jagielo wouldn't be available to them with their next pick while with Judge they believed nobody would draft him between their first and second pick and gee golly they were right. The logical conclusion should be that they knew what they were doing. They took an informed risk and were right.
   81. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 19, 2018 at 11:32 AM (#5695151)
It is quite possible and probable that the Yankees thought both players were going to be good. Every indication from Jagielo's first part of his career shows that he would be good. The Yankees wanted both and according to them if they had drafted Judge first Jagielo wouldn't be available to them with their next pick while with Judge they believed nobody would draft him between their first and second pick and gee golly they were right. The logical conclusion should be that they knew what they were doing. They took an informed risk and were right.

Right. Because no one in MLB had any idea Judge could become this good. Just like no one thought Trout would be one of the best 2 or 3 players of all time.

Smart teams don't succeed because they identify 8 WAR players where others see 2 WAR players. They succeed by being a little bit better at every pick. They take a guy who has a 15% of being a major leaguer, instead of the guy that has a 10% chance.
   82. McCoy Posted: June 19, 2018 at 11:58 AM (#5695197)
Right. Because no one in MLB had any idea Judge could become this good. Just like no one thought Trout would be one of the best 2 or 3 players of all time.

Smart teams don't succeed because they identify 8 WAR players where others see 2 WAR players. They succeed by being a little bit better at every pick. They take a guy who has a 15% of being a major leaguer, instead of the guy that has a 10% chance.


So what was your point through all of this beyond the Yankees didn't know they had an 8 WAR? What lesson are supposed to take away from your point? The Yankees correctly identified a good player, correctly handled his development, and correctly handled his promotion to the major leagues. That's really hard to pull off and just because the Yankees didn't pencil him in for 8 WAR a year way back in 2013 doesn't mean a whole lot.
   83. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 19, 2018 at 12:25 PM (#5695249)
So what was your point through all of this beyond the Yankees didn't know they had an 8 WAR? What lesson are supposed to take away from your point?

That they (or the Dodgers) aren't suddenly geniuses who are going to dominate the league forever. They're both on a very lucky streak with player development. That will turn.
   84. McCoy Posted: June 19, 2018 at 12:49 PM (#5695279)
That they (or the Dodgers) aren't suddenly geniuses who are going to dominate the league forever. They're both on a very lucky streak with player development. That will turn.

You realize we are talking about the Yankees here, right? They have dominated the league forever.

The lucky streak is just odd? Do bad GM and organization get on lucky streaks? If so how often as compared to good organizations and GM?
   85. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 19, 2018 at 12:54 PM (#5695285)
The lucky streak is just odd? Do bad GM and organization get on lucky streaks?

Yes. The Royals just won a World Series. The Angels picked Trout, despite having one of the worst farm systems forever.

You realize we are talking about the Yankees here, right? They have dominated the league forever.

One World Series and no additional Pennants in 15 years is dominating? They've missed the playoffs 3 of the last 5 years, largely because they failed to develop minor league talent for a good ten year stretch.
   86. McCoy Posted: June 19, 2018 at 01:04 PM (#5695296)
You got me. They literally haven't dominated every single day, every single season since time immemorial.

Yes. The Royals just won a World Series.

Um, Moore drafted Duffy, Holland, Moustakas in his first year, Hosmer, Montgomery, in his second, Myers in his third, Merrifield and Gray in his fourth (though Gray did not sign), Junis and Manaea in later years. That drafting record certainly doesn't look like a fluke. The Royals had a legitimately good team put together well. Them being good when they were good was not a fluke.
   87. Swoboda is freedom Posted: June 19, 2018 at 01:14 PM (#5695305)
So what was your point through all of this beyond the Yankees didn't know they had an 8 WAR? What lesson are supposed to take away from your point? The Yankees correctly identified a good player, correctly handled his development, and correctly handled his promotion to the major leagues. That's really hard to pull off and just because the Yankees didn't pencil him in for 8 WAR a year way back in 2013 doesn't mean a whole lot.

They did a good job in Iding him, a good job in developing him, and handled his promotion correctly. They get good grades on all of it. They get failing grades on selective memory by saying they had him as a Trout, Harper, A-Rod player. That is all Snapper and others are saying. They thought he was a first round talent. But they risked someone else taking him in the 5 selections between 26 and 32. No one would do that if they truly thought he was that type of talent.
   88. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 19, 2018 at 01:17 PM (#5695311)
Um, Moore drafted Duffy, Holland, Moustakas in his first year, Hosmer, Montgomery, in his second, Myers in his third, Merrifield and Gray in his fourth (though Gray did not sign), Junis and Manaea in later years. That drafting record certainly doesn't look like a fluke. The Royals had a legitimately good team put together well. Them being good when they were good was not a fluke.

Then why do they have a crap farm system now?
   89. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 19, 2018 at 01:17 PM (#5695312)
They did a good job in Iding him, a good job in developing him, and handled his promotion correctly. They get good grades on all of it. They get failing grades on selective memory by saying they had him as a Trout, Harper, A-Rod player. That is all Snapper and others are saying. They thought he was a first round talent. But they risked someone else taking him in the 5 selections between 26 and 32. No one would do that if they truly thought he was that type of talent.

Exactly.
   90. Eric L Posted: June 19, 2018 at 01:23 PM (#5695323)
Hmmm....I wasted my time again. I need a life.
   91. Jess Franco Posted: June 19, 2018 at 01:29 PM (#5695331)

They get failing grades on selective memory by saying they had him as a Trout, Harper, A-Rod player.

That's how memory works. It'll actually change every time you remember it, conditioned by current circumstances.
   92. McCoy Posted: June 19, 2018 at 01:31 PM (#5695335)
And your evidence of that is?


I should also add the statement was that Judges future value grades for hitting and power were in the territory of Trout/Harper/ARod and if the grades they revealed are true they did in fact view him that way as a hitter. So the claim is that either they are either lying about their grades or other things increased his risk as compared to those guys. Those guys were 17 and 18 years of age Judge was 21. That factors into risk and value. Judge was a big boy that factors into evaluations as well. Secondly we have Trout's scouting report and he was selected 25th so yes teams have viewed a player as a Trout like player (in that we have Mike Trout) and have not drafted him with one of the first 24 selections.
   93. McCoy Posted: June 19, 2018 at 01:31 PM (#5695337)
That's how memory works. It'll actually change every time you remember it, conditioned by current circumstances.

Which is why writing things down is so important and the Yankees did do that.
   94. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: June 19, 2018 at 01:32 PM (#5695339)
The troll wins again.
   95. McCoy Posted: June 19, 2018 at 01:34 PM (#5695342)
Then why do they have a crap farm system now?

So they just got lucky? That's what you want to chalk it up to? They had a good to great one for years, they are in a trough now, and if they get a good one again is that just luck? Does the bottom reflect true talent? Is the worst moment of anyone person's life the true indication of how their life is?
   96. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 19, 2018 at 01:39 PM (#5695348)
So they just got lucky? That's what you want to chalk it up to? They had a good to great one for years, they are in a trough now, and if they get a good one again is that just luck? Does the bottom reflect true talent? Is the worst moment of anyone person's life the true indication of how their life is?

Their ability to identify talent likely didn't change. They got lucky to hit a a string of prospects, and they parleyed it to a World Series. Good for them. Now, they've likely hit a bad run of luck, and the team is suffering.

Isn't that more plausible than saying Moore was a genius for 3 years, and then turned into a moron? Why wouldn't we expect luck to play a huge role in the drafting and development of minor league talent? There's such a high bust rate of even the best prospects, and so many guys come out of nowhere.
   97. McCoy Posted: June 19, 2018 at 01:49 PM (#5695359)
I'm not stating that Moore or Cashman are geniuses and then turned into morons or were morons at any point in time. I'm also not saying that there isn't a high level of luck involved. Look at Jagielo. He's a "bust" but all evidence through 2015 shows that he would have been a good player. A couple of fluky injuries ruined his career. That's "luck" but that doesn't mean an organization doesn't have good or bad skills at recognizing talent and or developing it.


Teams routinely show they can put together a series of good drafts. That would indicate that it isn't pure luck. Baseball rewards success. Teams rarely have the same personnel working for them for very long. You put some skilled people in place and if you find success eventually they'll get promoted or move on. A bit of a success bias and a bit of the Peter Principle in play. That's why what Theo was able to do in Chicago is so rare. He was able to go out and bring back the talent he had around him initially in Boston. Jed Hoyer and McLeod normally wouldn't be assistants to Theo but running their own teams.

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