Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Dominican Walk Rates Over Time

While both lines have fluctuations, the overall trend is pretty clear: the walk rate for Dominican-born hitters has been catching up to that of non-Dominicans. Comparing the walk rates of 1964 and 2012, the non-Dominican walk rate is almost the same; it has increased by 0.6%. The walk rate of Dominican-born hitters, in contrast, is about 48% higher in 2012 than in 1964.

By itself, of course, this does not tell us much. Many things have changed since Ozzie Virgil’s debut. The number of Dominicans in the majors leagues and major-league presence there and elsewhere internationally is obviously far greater now than it was 50 years ago. In 1964, only 10 non-pitcher Dominicans got major-league plate appearances. By the early ’00s, the seasonal number is more than 50 — usually around 10% of plate appearances by non-pitchers. That in itself is enough to indicate great changes that would have far-reaching effects. Which of those are most germane with respect to walk rates. That is something for a future piece. There are a number of factors that would have to be considered. Here is a short list of possible considerations. It is not meant to be exhaustive, nor are these possibilities mutually exclusive.

 

” cols=“100” rows=“20”>

No more brain dead Carribbean hitters swinging at slop?

While both lines have fluctuations, the overall trend is pretty clear: the walk rate for Dominican-born hitters has been catching up to that of non-Dominicans. Comparing the walk rates of 1964 and 2012, the non-Dominican walk rate is almost the same; it has increased by 0.6%. The walk rate of Dominican-born hitters, in contrast, is about 48% higher in 2012 than in 1964.

By itself, of course, this does not tell us much. Many things have changed since Ozzie Virgil’s debut. The number of Dominicans in the majors leagues and major-league presence there and elsewhere internationally is obviously far greater now than it was 50 years ago. In 1964, only 10 non-pitcher Dominicans got major-league plate appearances. By the early ’00s, the seasonal number is more than 50 — usually around 10% of plate appearances by non-pitchers. That in itself is enough to indicate great changes that would have far-reaching effects. Which of those are most germane with respect to walk rates. That is something for a future piece. There are a number of factors that would have to be considered. Here is a short list of possible considerations. It is not meant to be exhaustive, nor are these possibilities mutually exclusive.

 

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: October 30, 2012 at 09:24 AM | 3 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: dominican, walk rates

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. RollingWave Posted: October 30, 2012 at 11:03 AM (#4288223)
Mostly that's just Robinson Cano no? ;)
   2. Walt Davis Posted: October 30, 2012 at 05:06 PM (#4288652)
I think he missed an obvious "explanation." I recall I took a quick, much less thorough than this, look at this question and found that once you controlled for power/position, there never was much of a difference. Sluggers walk, not (generally) Cs and middle infielders. The early Dominican players were largely middle infielders and speedy CFs with no power.

If you look at Dominicans whose careers were primarily pre-1980, your sluggers are:

Carty: 299/369/464, above-average
Cedeno: 285/347/443, average
F Alou: 286/328/433, below-average
M Jimenez: 272/337/401, average (only 1100 PA)

and that's it for guys with a decent career length and an ISO over 110. It's true that Julian Javier didn't walk but neither did Glenn Beckert.

The next generation still didn't produce many sluggers:

P Guerrero: above-average
G Bell: well below-average
J Samuel: below-average

and then Tony Fernandez and his awesome 110 ISO (and average-ish walk rate) is next on the list.

We're up to about 1990 and the Dominican has produced just 4 corner players (1B/LF/RF) with a career of decent length. That's better than I thought actually as they produced only about 20 players with careers of decent length through 1990. This is still probably below-average overall (i.e. a guy with Carty's power probably should have walked more than he did) but it's not particularly extreme. The crappy walk rates were for skinny little defensive specialists and most of those guys don't walk much.

We've seen a ton of Dominican-born power hitters over the last 15-20 years and even somebody like Vlad got enough IBB to end up league average in BB rate.

Greatest Dominican hitter?

Esteban Yan: 2 for 2 with a HR, OPS of 3500, that's better than John Paciorek

Honorable mention: Luis Silverio, 6 for 11 with a 2B and 3B, 545/615/909
   3. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: October 30, 2012 at 07:54 PM (#4288795)
You can walk off the island?

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Adam M
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogDave Kreiger: New Baseball Hall of Fame voting rules
(36 - 3:16am, Sep 16)
Last: MelOtt4

NewsblogBowman: A year’s worth of struggles leads reason to wonder what changes are in store for the Braves
(14 - 2:47am, Sep 16)
Last: zachtoma

NewsblogSteven Matz, other top minor league Mets to be honored at Citi Field on Monday
(5 - 2:28am, Sep 16)
Last: Win Big Stein's Money

NewsblogPapelbon blows lead, gets ejected for crotch-grabbing at fans
(61 - 1:32am, Sep 16)
Last: Dog on the sidewalk

NewsblogOT: Politics, September, 2014: ESPN honors Daily Worker sports editor Lester Rodney
(2508 - 1:24am, Sep 16)
Last: Joe Kehoskie

NewsblogA’s lose Triple-A Sacramento affiliate
(16 - 1:18am, Sep 16)
Last: the Hugh Jorgan returns

NewsblogOT: NBC.news: Valve isn’t making one gaming console, but multiple ‘Steam machines’
(813 - 12:15am, Sep 16)
Last: Win Big Stein's Money

NewsblogOMNICHATTER 9-15-2014
(78 - 11:46pm, Sep 15)
Last: RollingWave

NewsblogHeyman: Mariners have decided not to retain the ice-cream buying scout
(4 - 11:45pm, Sep 15)
Last: SoSHially Unacceptable

NewsblogSports Bog: Fans Switch From Skins to Nats
(62 - 11:41pm, Sep 15)
Last: boteman is not here 'til October

NewsblogCalcaterra: Derek Jeter got a bucket of crabs and a captain’s hat from the Orioles
(12 - 11:41pm, Sep 15)
Last: Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip

NewsblogOT: The Soccer Thread, September 2014
(219 - 10:43pm, Sep 15)
Last: frannyzoo

NewsblogOT August 2014:  Wrassle Mania I
(161 - 10:11pm, Sep 15)
Last: NJ in DC (Now with temporary employment!)

Newsblog10 Degrees: Why WAR doesn’t always add up
(340 - 9:46pm, Sep 15)
Last: cardsfanboy

NewsblogOT: September 2014 College Football thread
(245 - 9:20pm, Sep 15)
Last: spike

Page rendered in 0.2232 seconds
53 querie(s) executed