Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Sunday, November 27, 2011

Duggan: A.J. Burnett and The Amazing, Disappearing Fastball

~~There is nothing wrong with your strike zone. Do not attempt to adjust the pitcher~~

image

For a power pitcher, who relies almost exclusively on a fastball and a breaking ball, it may surprise you (or it may not) that A.J. Burnett’s fastball was the least valuable pitch in baseball in 2011, coming in at -34.0 runs.  It’s tough to contextualize that, so for the sake of comparison, Mariano Rivera’s cutter was +12.2 runs, David Robertson’s fastball was +14.4 runs, and CC Sabathia’s slider was +14.6 runs.

It’s a shockingly bad number, and it’s headed in the wrong direction.  In his seven pre-Yankee years, Burnett had accumulated +39.3 runs of value with his fastball, with -14.1, -16.2, and -34.0 the past three seasons.  It has gone from a weapon to a piped home run waiting to happen.

...Mostly as a product of his curveball, Burnett still has a way to get strikeouts and ground balls.  While having 95 MPH heat was a great way to keep batters from squaring him up, that velocity and late life is gone and probably isn’t coming back, making it tough to imagine how Burnett can recover any effectiveness without some fundamental changes to his approach.  It can be done, but he has his work cut out for him.

Repoz Posted: November 27, 2011 at 12:17 AM | 1 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: history, projections, reviews, sabermetrics, yankees

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Tripon Posted: November 27, 2011 at 03:00 AM (#4001422)
So by smoking the objective pipe, we can see that A.J. Burnett is a horrible pitcher.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
dirk
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOT: Politics, October 2014: Sunshine, Baseball, and Etch A Sketch: How Politicians Use Analogies
(2539 - 9:31am, Oct 20)
Last: Lassus

NewsblogCalcaterra: So, if you’re not a fan of the Royals or Giants, who ya got?
(4 - 9:30am, Oct 20)
Last: Bitter Mouse

NewsblogHow long of a season does it take before talent beats chance? - Beyond the Box Score
(34 - 9:28am, Oct 20)
Last: Rickey! trades in sheep and threats

NewsblogBernie Miklasz on Twitter: Matheny, when asked about not using closer T. Rosenthal in 9th
(126 - 9:27am, Oct 20)
Last: Ron J2

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 10-20-2014
(1 - 9:26am, Oct 20)
Last: Dan Lee is some pumkins

NewsblogWhy Royals great Frank White no longer associates with the team whose stadium he built - Yahoo Sports
(3 - 9:25am, Oct 20)
Last: Gamingboy

NewsblogOT: The Soccer Thread, September 2014
(825 - 9:24am, Oct 20)
Last: The Marksist

NewsblogJAVIER prospect comparison system, now with speed! - Beyond the Box Score
(2 - 9:08am, Oct 20)
Last: Bug Selig

NewsblogFan Returns Home Run Ball to Ishikawa; Receives World Series tickets
(3 - 9:07am, Oct 20)
Last: snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster)

NewsblogBrisbee: The 5 worst commercials of the MLB postseason
(101 - 9:04am, Oct 20)
Last: snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster)

NewsblogCould the Yankees ever be Royals? Young and athletic K.C. is everything that Bombers are not - NY Daily News
(14 - 9:02am, Oct 20)
Last: Jeltzandini

NewsblogDealing or dueling – what’s a manager to do? | MGL on Baseball
(1 - 8:56am, Oct 20)
Last: McCoy

NewsblogAngell: Gigantic
(34 - 8:54am, Oct 20)
Last: J. Sosa

NewsblogESPN: Brian Roberts retires
(21 - 6:18am, Oct 20)
Last: vivaelpujols

NewsblogSielski: A friend fights for ex-Phillie Dick Allen's Hall of Fame induction
(56 - 4:13am, Oct 20)
Last: Sunday silence

Page rendered in 0.1731 seconds
52 querie(s) executed