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Thursday, February 28, 2008

Dugout Central: Bouffard: Roy White Better Than Jim Rice?

Ever wonder what would happen if you mixed one-part Jesus Melendez and one-part Bad News Cubs?

Bill James has forgotten more about the game of baseball than I’ll ever know. He’s been the baseball equivalent of Isaac Newton as it pertains to statistical analysis. He’s employed as Senior Baseball Operations Advisor with the Red Sox, and I write articles for this website in my spare time with no compensation. He has two World Series rings and I can’t find my high school class ring. So please spare me the flames – I know I’m going to baseball hell for the dual sins of challenging what James says and rooting for the Yankees, not to mention not having all that big of a problem with the DH.

In The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract James ranks White and Rice as the 25th and 27th best leftfielders of all time respectively. He goes into detail as to why White is better. The crux of James’ argument is that White was more valuable than Rice by translating their respective “Run Values” to “Win Values” by adjusting for league, park, and outs. I will make no attempt to even pretend I understand the math involved with that. It’s not that I can’t; it’s that I don’t want to. If that invalidates my argument in your mind, so be it. I’m an advocate of sabermetrics, but only to a point. Games are still played on the field, not on a calculator. If baseball truly is our national pastime, then I think we need to address it on a level that Joe Baseball Fan can understand without breaking out his slide rule.

Repoz Posted: February 28, 2008 at 01:31 PM | 24 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: hall of fame, history, red sox, sabermetrics, yankees

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1. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: February 28, 2008 at 01:54 PM (#2701896)

not on a calculator

without breaking out his slide rule

well, he's got two of the key words--he forgot "spreadsheet", though

2. The cushions are crowded for Edmundo

Posted: February 28, 2008 at 02:12 PM (#2701902)

Don't forget Mom's basement

3. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader

Posted: February 28, 2008 at 02:34 PM (#2701910)

I weep for what Bill James has wrought.

(This catch phrase of mine isn't going to stick, is it?)

4. The importance of being Ernest Riles Posted: February 28, 2008 at 02:46 PM (#2701918)

It’s not that I can’t; it’s that I don’t want to. If that invalidates my argument in your mind, so be it.

Then it be so.

5. RB in NYC (Now with New iPhone!) Posted: February 28, 2008 at 03:13 PM (#2701937)

It’s not that I can’t; it’s that I don’t want to. If that invalidates my argument in your mind, so be it.

Then it be so.

It is what it is.

6. cee lo ortiz Posted: February 28, 2008 at 03:15 PM (#2701941)

7. Mike Emeigh

Posted: February 28, 2008 at 03:21 PM (#2701943)

If baseball truly is our national pastime, then I think we need to address it on a level that Joe Baseball Fan can understand

Regardless of what you might think about the rest of the author's article - and the cited paragraph doesn't do the full article justice; it's actually a very well-written critique - he is spot-on with this sentence. Whatever James's other flaws as an analyst, he's always excelled at bringing the discussion to a level which allows the average fan to engage in the discussion.

-- MWE

8. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: February 28, 2008 at 03:30 PM (#2701952)

Per DRA, White was a drop-dead-phenomenal defensive outfielder.

9. AROM Posted: February 28, 2008 at 03:34 PM (#2701958)

I could do without the sliderule (or calculator, or spreadsheet) cliche. From the lead in, I wasn't expecting much, but it's well worth the read. A very good article.

I made the point back when I was fighting in the Rice wars that while I agree with James' conclusion on their 5 year peaks, Rice looks better than White if you use 3 years, 4 years, 6 years, or pretty much any other definition of peak. Not a lot better, bit just a wee tiny bit better.

The author talks about the effects of expansion in the middle of White's peak. Another similarity as the American League expanded again right in time for Rice's peak.

10. AROM Posted: February 28, 2008 at 03:36 PM (#2701959)

Per DRA, White was a drop-dead-phenomenal defensive outfielder.

White was a better fielder than Rice, but the same park effects we account for in offense need to be considered on defense. The gap between them is not as huge as it appears at first glance. Last I talked to Michael Humphreys, DRA did not park adjust.

11. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: February 28, 2008 at 03:43 PM (#2701965)

Its a good article, but was there a conclusion? James may have erred in ranking White 2 spots ahead of Rice? I can buy that.

12. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: February 28, 2008 at 03:48 PM (#2701968)

Whatever James's other flaws as an analyst, he's always excelled at bringing the discussion to a level which allows the average fan to engage in the discussion.

I'm confused. The point of the paragraphs cited is that James failed, utterly, to bring the discussion to a level that the average fan could engage with, and thus he mocks James mercilessly.

Having read the White/Rice comment, I can comment that (a) it was quite easy to understand, as Mike is exactly correct that this is perhaps James' greatest skill as an analyst and (b) I'm unconvinced. White was a lot closer to Rice in value than I thought, but you have to juke a few stats to get him above Rice.

13. The Essex Snead Posted: February 28, 2008 at 03:58 PM (#2701974)

but you have to juke a few stats to get him above Rice.

Carcetti's going to run you out on a rail if you juke the stats!

14. Bob Dernier Cri

Posted: February 28, 2008 at 03:59 PM (#2701975)

The New Abstract was somewhat bedeviled by preceding the publication of the Win Shares system on which it was based, but if you actually sit down with both books and work through the chain of arguments, it's not opaque. You may disagree with James's assumptions in devising Win Shares, but they are not impenetrable or absurd.

15. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader

Posted: February 28, 2008 at 04:01 PM (#2701976)

Carcetti's going to run you out on a rail if you juke the stats!

Bill James talks as pretty as Clay Davis.

It was still pretty radical at the time for Bill James to make a strong case that Roy White was even in the same ballpark as Jim Rice. It's one of his better essays, I think, and very easy to understand without a slide rule or anything.

16. Mike Green Posted: February 28, 2008 at 04:09 PM (#2701981)

A little note on expansion and Rice/White. Rice hit well against the Mariners and Jays in 1977 and 1979, but not in 1978. For his career, his best numbers were posted against (to my surprise) the Yankees; I seem to remember homer after homer flying out of Exhibition Stadium in Toronto, but I guess feared hitters sear themselves into your memory!

White dined out against the Indians, but then so did everyone else for years before and after.

17. DK near DC Posted: February 28, 2008 at 04:23 PM (#2701989)

It is what it is.

Like White on Rice.

18. The cushions are crowded for Edmundo

Posted: February 28, 2008 at 05:40 PM (#2702064)

The continual use of slide rule, calculator, spreadsheet, etc. inspired me to play Weird Al. Here are the results for better or worse:
Stuck Inside Mom's Basement With the Spreadsheet Blues Again

19. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 28, 2008 at 05:48 PM (#2702077)

If baseball truly is our national pastime, then I think we need to address it on a level that Joe Baseball Fan can understand

Isn't that kinda what Win Shares was designed to do?

20. Crispix Attacks Posted: February 28, 2008 at 05:53 PM (#2702086)

I have never heard of Roy White, therefore I must conclude that this "Bill James" is a crazy person.

21. Designated Sitter (GGC) Posted: February 28, 2008 at 06:58 PM (#2702168)

Interesting blog, Edmundo.

22. Jon T. Posted: February 28, 2008 at 07:06 PM (#2702181)

Edmundo, that was awesome.

23. Cowboy Popup Posted: February 28, 2008 at 07:09 PM (#2702188)

Edmundo, consider your blog bookmarked and the link emailed. That's pretty frickin cool man.

24. The cushions are crowded for Edmundo

Posted: February 28, 2008 at 07:20 PM (#2702210)

Thanks, guys. The pressure is now on. :)
I always struggled in school with writing because I was always trying to write what I thought my teachers wanted me to write. Probably a German Catholic thing. I always felt that I had some inner writer dying to get out. Now that I've done it a few times, I find it relaxing just writing what I want while trying to craft it to make it as interesting as possible.
And any style tips (too many commas or parenthetical expressions?) are welcome.

EDIT: fixed grammar

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Thursday, February 28, 2008

Dugout Central: Bouffard: Roy White Better Than Jim Rice?

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