Dugout Central: Catalano/Ehrke: Trading Melky: Point/Counter-point

Using the powerful Uv Visual Echelle Spectrograph you can actually see how far the Melky way…has fallen.

Don Ehrke

Melky Cabrera is only 23 years old; many youngsters who play at his level mature into outstanding performers as they enter their prime seasons. Consider Hall of Famer Ryne Sandberg. At age 22 Sandberg’s OPS+ was 90, at age 23 it slipped to 82. Sandberg’s OPS+ at 24 was 140. If the Cubs had traded Sandberg at age 23 they would have lost the services of the best second baseman of his generation.

Sandberg isn’t the only example; Cabrera can look across the clubhouse for inspiration. Johnny Damon’s OPS+ was 97 at age 21 before it regressed to 73 the following season. At 23 Damon’s OPS+ was still a substandard 88. At 24, it jumped to 100. The Tampa Bay Rays drafted current Yankee Bobby Abreu from the Astros and traded him to Philadelphia for Kevin Stocker. Abreu’s OPS+ in Houston at age 23 was 87; for the Phillies at age 24 it was 136.

Predicting the future based on the past is always a dangerous proposition. While there are countless examples of players greatly improving their performance at Cabrera’s age there are also examples of players who failed to mature. Nevertheless, the Yankees are taking a terrible risk in trading Cabrera now. It’s worth their patience to let him develop. If he doesn’t improve, they probably won’t get much less for him in a year than they will now; if Cabrera makes great strides, the Yankees will be glad to have kept him.

Never sell low.