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1. RollingWave Posted: June 16, 2009 at 05:12 AM (#3220545)Though it is true that Jorge's not exactly a great defensive catcher. while i'm really surpirsed at how good Cervelli's catching game is.
This essay is an embarassment and this particular statement is a groaner. Cervelli's OPS+ is 71. Posada's is 144. Apples and oranges. This guy has a serious axe to grind.
Baggypants Moskowitz..."Suzyn...if given the chance, I believe Cervilli can hit .300 in the majors."
And speaking as a Red Sox fan I agree 100% that he should start over Posada.
... he said between fingerscoops from the press box ice cream bowl.
And frankly, the Yankees don’t need the home runs right now—they lead the league with 102 home runs….by 10.
That's about the stupidest piece of analysis I've seen this year.
I'm really stunned that he's producing at a 120 OPS+ level. If I had to guess, I'd have come up with about 90. He's looked incredibly putrid at the plate to my eyes recently.
OK, then just take away the children.
I'm really stunned that he's producing at a 120 OPS+ level. If I had to guess, I'd have come up with about 90. He's looked incredibly putrid at the plate to my eyes recently.
Matsui is incredibly streaky. When he's going bad, he is absolutely atrocious. Swing-and-a-miss at balls in the dirt, and rolling over on outside pitches for routine grounders to 2B.
They really should rest him more when he's slumping. When's Nady back?
How about a rolling 10-game average? If you have game-by-game stats, it should be easy to set up in a spreadsheet.
This pretty much. Molina is a fine defender, but I'm not convinced he's any better than Cervelli, and Cervelli can at least outrun my grandmother.
Also, although I'm fine with the notion of Burnett having a personal caddy if he really hates throwing to Posada, the idea of cutting the playing time of your 144 OPS+ catcher so a defensive whiz with a 71 OPS+ can start is so dense that it's actually warping spacetime.
Still, if he starts walking a bit more and can turn in something in the semblance of a 90ish OPS+, then you'd seriously consider having him catch most of the game next year and have Jorge DH. if only due to the health issues and Cervelli's arm.
No way. Unless Posada simply can't catch at all. You limit Posada to maybe 90-100 games.
Apparently.
I don't know why people still don't grasp that a player who combines below average defense and an elite bat at a defensive-oriented position, is a really valuable thing, and his value goes down if you try to move him down the defensive spectrum. See Jeter, Derek, and Posada, Jorge.
I'm also fascinated by the heavy weight people are placing on catcher defense, despite the fact that we can't even begin to quantify most of it.
Apparently.
As a Mets fan, this statement pisses me off. Sure, people are falling in love with Cervelli to the point where they are advocating sitting a vastly superior player. And sure, Posada is much better than the two players Santos somehow moved ahead of on the Mets' depth chart. In those ways (which is probably all that was meant), the comparison is fare. But Francisco Cervelli is a far superior player to Omir Santos.
Cervelli is a 23 year old with a career .273/.374/.381 minor league line. That is not the kind of player you want to play over Jorge Posada, but there's reason to believe he could eventually hold his own in the majors.
Omir Santos is a 28 year old with a career .258/.303/.348 line in the minors. That anyone could think he should be playing in the major leagues as a backup, let alone a starter is very very frustrating. Jerry Manuel says there is a Schneider/Santos platoon for now, but that it will change based on who plays better, which basically means that Schneider will outhit Santos for about a month, Manuel won't realize it, and then Santos will play every day for the rest of the season. Sorry to hijack, but it pisses me off.
The people who want Cervelli to catch and Posada to DH.
I don't care if people can judge good from bad, which is not even established for many aspects of catching. If we have no idea whether the difference is 5 runs, or 10 or 15, you just can't advocate displacing a much, much better hitter for an allegedly superior defender.
Based on the state of knowledge today, we don't even know if Cervelli is a better defender than Posada. Posada could be 10 runs better p.a. at calling a game (pulling a number out of my ass), more than offsetting any advantage in arm and passed balls.
Because Posada should DH more. Posada should DH in every game he is not catching. Look, Matsui's knee is a time bomb. As soon as he goes on the DL, let Posada catch 1-2 games a week, Molina catch a couple, and Cervelli catch a couple.
If only because we can hopefully extend the life of Posada's bat.
I disagree. Cervelli and Molina are offensive black holes. Literally, in the sense that they both suck. Obviously Posada should be getting ample time off from catching considering his age and recent injury history, but the fewer games the Yankees are punting a lineup spot with a terrible hitter, the better. Health allowing, I'm putting Posada behind the plate 4 days a week.
Concur. It would be nice to have a decent hitting backup C so Posada could catch ~80 games and DH 60-70, but the Yankees don't have that guy.
You can rotate the other position players into a DH role, resting people without losing their production.
WE MUST PROTECT THIS CATCHER!
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/17/sports/baseball/17doping.htm
Wow, that's DiPerna-level stupidity right there.
That would be ideal.
The Yankees situation is kind of odd in that Cervelli/Molina are not particularly bad by backup catcher standards. It's just that most starting catchers aren't particularly good hitters anyway, so plugging in a 70ish OPS+ guy to fill in as your backup isn't a big deal. When your starting catcher hits like Posada, the dropoff is glaringly obvious, and coupled with Posada's fragility puts them in a place where they really need a second "starting quality" catcher.
I'd think you want to carry five outfielders instead; even the current team has five "outfielders" (even if Hideki hasn't seen his glove recently).
Please show me your estimates of how many runs above or below average Posada's game calling was worth last year? We don't even know if it was above or below average. Fangraphs doesn't even try to calculate catcher defensive value.
All we have is anecdotal BS based on pitchers liking to throw to a guy.
What is stupidity is complaining about the likely slightly below average defense of a catcher with a 124 career OPS+ who currently has a 144 OPS+.
whats the difference between carrying three catchers, and carrying 2 catcher and a guy who can't play the field?
You know, the 61 Yankees* carried three catchers and they did OK. Three catchers is not a death sentence.
*Molina is not going to be Elston Howard, but Cervelli could turn into Blanchard, right?
No? still, that team had three catchers.
The Yankees could really us a OF/C or 3B/C hybrid. Brandon Inge would be a nice pickup for the Yankees if Detroit ever looks to shed some salary.
I am not sure this is BS.
It's BS b/c we can't quantify the impact, or even know if there's an impact.
Just because you can't quantify something, doesn't mean you it is BS.
Simply because you assign a value to it doesn't make it any less a part of the game.
The Yankees could really us a OF/C or 3B/C hybrid. Brandon Inge would be a nice pickup for the Yankees if Detroit ever looks to shed some salary.
Pablo Sandoval does this with the Giants. He's a pretty good hitter to boot.
The modern game makes it seem that 13-man pitching staffs are the norm. So that leaves room for twelve position players. Take the starting eight out of that, and you're left with four bench spots. You'll have a backup catcher, a utility infielder, a fourth outfielder, and one other guy. I guess that other guy can be a C/DH, but your team is awful thin in positional depth.
*Molina is not going to be Elston Howard, but Cervelli could turn into Blanchard, right?
The chances of Cervelli turning into 1961 Johnny Blanchard seem pretty slim. Yogi playing a lot of leftfield made carrying 3 catchers possible, the bats of Howard (153 OPS+) & Blanchard (167 OPS+) made it a smart move, and it was before the DH slot commanded a roster spot. The case for both Molina & Cervelli appears less compelling.
It's not BS, but it does mean we shouldn't give it as much weight in our analysis. It means you shouldn't pay for it as much. This is akin to why fantasy owners in auctions spend more money on hitting than on pitching. Nobody doubts that pitching is half the total points allocated, but because they can't be predicted as well, people know better than to spend half their auction dollars on it.
Put another way, lets say I had a +5 RAA hitting CF, who was +10 by my best defensive estimate, and I've got a +5 RAA hitting C, who is also +10 by my best defensive estimate. All else equal, and I can only sign one of these guys, you agree I should take the center fielder, right?
Put another way, lets say I had a +5 RAA hitting CF, who was +10 by my best defensive estimate, and I've got a +5 RAA hitting C, who is also +10 by my best defensive estimate. All else equal, and I can only sign one of these guys, you agree I should take the center fielder, right?
Exactly my point.
And, if your choice is a) +5 RAA, +10 Def CF or b) +20 RAA, -5 Def CF, you pick b) b/c you're more confident in the offensive statistics.
Even more, if a) and b) are C, b/c the catcher defensive stats don't even attempt to capture game calling and pitcher handling, which are a big part of real world C defense.
No, Cervelli's defense -- to the extent it can be quantified -- doesn't come close to making up the massive gap in offense. How absurd.
No, one shouldn't move Posada to DH and replace Matsui's bat with Cervelli's. How absurd.
The value of having an elite hitter for the position who can field the position adequately is continually underestimated, to the point of being utterly bizarre.
He is older, and very old for a catcher. He needs more rest than just the day after a night game.
This would be true in a vaccume. but the real key issue here is that Jorge Posada is turning 39 next year. making him more of the DH/C is more about protecting him from the DL than anything else. This is on the assumption that Cervelli's walk rate in the minor start comming back to him , I'm obviously not advocating starting a 70ish OPS+ guy everyday. but with his body of work in the minor and everything else considered. it's not absurd to think that he might put up something of a 90ish OPS+ in the majors.
As for Catcher's defense, yeah, it's hard to quantify. but it's even harder to say it really doesn't matter. and from all the obvious (SB/CS) and not so obvious (CERA and general feel of them in game) it's hard to see how anyone can say Cervelli isn't a major upgrade defensively from Jorge Posada. if simply due to the fact that Jorge probably isn't much younger than his dad.
Matsui's contract is up after this year and it's highly unlikely that they bring him back. so the DH spot is open anyway. they could either sign a perment DH or they'll end up rotating guys in the DH. the later seems more likely given that most Yankees hit like DHs anyway. and looking at their current guys, no one make more sense to stay at DH more often than Jorge.
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