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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Monday, April 16, 2012
Robinson won many accolades during his MLB career, including: NL Rookie of the Year in 1947, NL MVP in 1949, and was a six-time all-star. His statistics were also great, Jackie had a career slash of .311/.409/.474 with 137 HR’s and 197 SB’s. In terms of Baseball Prospectus’ Wins Above Replacement Player stat (WARP), Robinson ranks as the eleventh-best second baseman of all-time, with 41.9 wins. In my opinion, Robinson is actually a top-5 MLB second baseman. Robinson wasn’t allowed to begin his Major League career until he was 28 years of age, which make his statistics that much more incredible. The age of 28 is normally the middle of a player’s prime (for some players 28 is the end of their prime); thus, Robinson missed out on some seasons in which he could’ve been dominant. For instance, Robinson’s age-26 season in the Negro Leagues (1945) was ridiculous. He led the league in batting average (.414) and slugging percentage (.569), while finishing second in on-base percentage (.460) behind only fellow hall-of-famer, Cool Papa Bell.
Robinson was a great ballplayer statistically, despite the fact that he was only allowed to play in 10 MLB seasons. His statistics could’ve been that much more legendary if Major League baseball had accepted African-American players three or four seasons earlier. I’m confident that if Robinson had been given that chance he’d (statistically) be a top-5 all-time second basemen and should be considered as such.
Bill James had Jackie Robinson #4 all-time at 2B while…Maury Allen had him as #2.
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1. Walt Davis Posted: April 16, 2012 at 05:52 AM (#4107469)b-r WAR has him at 63 which, I note, is a lot higher than 42 ... which would seem to be WAAP, not WARP? But then b-r has him as still a ridiculously good 2B at 37 (+19!) which I gotta say seems a bit unlikely. Oh wait, I see, the 42 is just the WAR at 2B, good on ya son!
And I guess I never realized how little time he spent at 2B -- less than 60% of his starts came there. He is a tough one to rank overall but jiminy christmas 42 WAR in just 5 seasons at 2B. Morgan beats but yikes-a-monkey!
In addition to cliff-diving, 2B seem to have this strange thing where they (at least the HoF ones) go nuts from ages 28 to 33:
Hornsby 58 WAR
Morgan 57
Robinson 45
Collins 39
Gehringer 38
Biggio 38
Sandberg 34
Alomar 33
and although he missed my cutoff for games at 2B, Carew had 40. Even guys like Lopes, Durham and Polanco are 21-24 over those 6 years.
If you look at all-time WAR from ages 28 to 33, you have 2B at 2, 4, 12, 14 (Lajoie), 18 (Carew), 21, 23 and 25. That's 8 out of 25. Compared to 3 CF, 3 3B and only 1 SS.
I think you're in the sweet spot of a guy's physical and experience trajectories. At age 28, it usually means that you're just cresting over your peak physically, but mentally and in terms of experience most good to great players have been in the league for 6-8 years at that point. Maybe the decline point for SS defensively is at a younger age, whereas at 2b you're still not declining physically enough that it affects your fielding.
That's a perfectly logical question to pose if only Robinson had been white. There were many other considerations in play at the time, one of which was that Rickey wanted a chance for the Dodgers to interact with Jackie during Spring training rather than suddenly adding the wild card factor of a "social experiment" into the heat of a red hot pennant race. He wanted to be as close to 110% certain as he could be that Jackie was 100% ready to make the leap.
The solution to that would have been to have him interact with the Dodgers in 1946.
Was Maury's ranking pre-Morgan-greatness? His book written in the late 70s?
Branch Rickey handpicked him, so we're starting from a pretty high standard to begin with. I'm pretty sure that intelligent baseball men were well aware that black players were just as good as white players, and that Jackie Robinson was a standard player. And Branch Rickey knew a thing or two about baseball players.
In any event, at some point on his way to demolishing the minors in Montreal they had to be pretty certain he could do better than a guy hitting .242 with no power and no walks.
In any event, at some point on his way to demolishing the minors in Montreal they had to be pretty certain he could do better than a guy hitting .242 with no power and no walks.
Right, but as you know, there were those "sociological factors" that made Rickey delay the move until the following Spring. If Robinson had been white, he likely would've been drafted by the NFL or signed by a Major League team as soon as his college class had graduated, and if I had some ham, I could make a ham sandwich.
Yup. Robinson missed, at most, one season.
Born in 1919, which puts him in college until 1941, then the war. With no pro experience no way him claims an MLB job right away in 1945.
So, the best case scenario for a "no color-barrier" Robinson is that he crushes the minors in a half-season in '45, and wins a job in spring training of '46.
This assumes that absent segregation, Robinson would have still gone to college rather than going directly to the minors as did almost all of the players of his stature until about two generations later.
Is that really possible given that he never played SS or CF?
I'd have to imagine Ozzie Smith would have been a really spiffy fielder at 2B or 3B. Or any elite defensive SS for that matter.
He was a really good football player, and a very intelligent man. I imagine he goes to college in any case.
Given the salaries of the day, and the tiny % of people with college degrees, a UCLA education was worth a lot more then than a couple of extra years of a baseball career.
He wasn't primarily a baseball player back then. College was the destination for guys who played football and track & field. I'm not sure when Jackie Robinson became a big deal in baseball. His college stats were not good at all. Did he put himself on the baseball map playing in the military?
"top" = ?? If you mean "best", he has Mt Everest to climb to get past the Thorpe/Jim Brown/many others. Most famous? That's got a pile of Ruth/Jordan/types too.
Forget "most famous", because that's going to change with every generation. The "most famous" American athlete in his time would almost certainly have been Ali or Jordan.
But Jackie's definitely in the discussion for "best", even if it's an impossible question to answer. He was the first four sport varsity athlete (baseball, football, basketball and track) ever at UCLA, where by all accounts baseball was his worst sport. He won the 1940 Men's NCAA long jump championship, and his football prowess was the subject of many a feature story in both black and white newspapers. Of the other major contenders (Thorpe, Brown, Bo Jackson and Deion Sanders), only the last two ever played more than one major pro sport on a high level, but there's little question that Jackie's only barriers to an NFL career were his race and the impending war.
A related side note to this is if you wanted to pick the most accomplished college backfield in history, you'd be hard pressed to top the 1939 UCLA trio of Jackie Robinson, Kenny Washington and Woody Strode. Jackie integrated the Majors in 1947, Kenny integrated the NFL in 1946, and Woody joined Kenny in integrating the NFL and then went on to have a long and successful acting career, winning a Golden Globe award in Sparticus, in addition to having many other substantial and acclaimed roles (such as Sergeant Rutledge, The Professionals, etc.) at a time when good roles for black actors were few and far between. Considering the barriers they faced, that was one hell of a group of college football players.
Is that really possible given that he never played SS or CF?
It is if you read the qualifier correctly; it just means that he was one of the best second basemen ever, one of the best third basemen ever, and one of the best left fielders ever. It comes from the Bill Mazeroski comment in the NHBA (which is a weird place to find it). Robinson is 5th all-time in win shares per 1000 innings, among players with at least 3000 innings at second. He played less than that at third, but his win shares/1000 is about 10% higher than the #1 figure among qualifiers at the position. And in left field, his win shares rate is roughly the same as Roberto Clemente's (win shares treat all outfield positions the same), and better than Al Kaline's and Dwight Evans's. The only position at which he doesn't grade out all that well is first base, which is odd... but then, he was playing first base when he was first breaking into the league, and there may have been some slight extenuating circumstances.
As to how he got into baseball . . . well, it wasn't like the NFL was any more integrated than baseball, at the time. Robinson's teammates Woody Strode and Kenny Washington broke the color line there in 1946. At that time, the NBA didn't really exist, and its precursor league the BAA was in its infancy, and segregated to boot. The chance to earn money and become famous in professional baseball was superior. And Jackie Robinson was the kind of athlete who picked up any sport easily. He was a junior tennis champion as a high-schooler. I've heard a story (can't locate it now) about Robinson learning table tennis in the Army, becoming obsessed for a while, winning his base or unit championship before moving on. His military baseball career was unremarkable, as was his baseball record at UCLA, but he had aptitude to spare – and coaches weren't as hung up in those days about players having come up through the culture or system of one particular sport.
Edit: passes Coke to Andy for various small sips :)
Well, JR did have HOF level players in front of him at SS(Pee Wee Reese) and CF (Duke Snider). That's a pretty good excuse not to play either position, especially when the Dodgers had larger needs elsewhere.
Anywho, James rated JR as the 3rd best defensive 2b of all time with between 3000-9999 innings with a ranking of 6.00 defensive win shares per 1000 innings (Maz is at 6.18).
An average (Post 1940) 3b comes in at 3.22 WS per 1000 with Clete Boyer having the post 1940 high of 4.97.
Jack Robby is at 5.52
James-"He's off the charts. Nobody else is even in the same zone."
In the OF?
"He played about 1,175 in the OF, mostly in LF. He rates as sensational there, for a LF"... with..."a per inning rate that wouldn't be bad if he was a CF."
"He also played about 1,665 innings at 1b, rating as just above average"
"Still, I think the record would suggest Robinson may in fact have been a far better defensive player than most folks think he was. If it's a statistical illusion of some kind, it's an illusion that chases him all over the diamond."
I'm not giving a personal opinion, just passing on BJ's comments.
Source
The new historical abstract pg 502 (Under the Maz comments of all places)http://books.google.com/books?id=3uSbqUm8hSAC&pg=PA363&lpg=PA363&dq=bill+james+new+historical+abstract+jackie+robinson&source=bl&ots=1ln5md4Kyi&sig=oa5i_jkC8q1UnZAARlFCyC-Y7gE&hl=en&sa=X&ei=dSqMT--WA4idgQex6ZjQCQ&ved=0CDgQ6AEwAg#v=onepage&q&f;=false
Edited to add-Coke or carbonated beverage of his choice to Bob Dernier
I'm not claiming that any of these athletes under discussion were the all-time greatest, but only that Jackie Robinson belongs in the discussion. A lot of it depends on whether you consider well above average accomplishment in two major sports more significant than winning a decathlon. By the former standard, it's hard to beat even Bo Jackson's injury-riddled career, but by the latter standard it's probably Thorpe. Robinson and several others jump up a notch if your consider what they accomplished within the framework of their constrictions, both racial and / or war-related.
But if you put them all in a neutral arena or playing field and had them all demonstrate their talents over a wide variety of sports, my money would be on Jim Brown to show the highest level of skill in the greatest number of events. That's purely based on instinct, of course, and there's no way of proving it.
Robinson was not in great shape by his mid-30s, but: in 1957 he was diagnosed with Type II diabetes, which shortened his life – and, given that he was probably playing through the onset of the condition in the mid-1950s, shortened his athletic career as well.
As a player, I see him as kind of "Chase Utley, but with slightly better D, a slightly better peak, and far greater versatility." Which is pretty darn good indeed.
Thanks for sharing that (groan), and I'm afraid it's all too true. And it's a good thing he didn't go to Seton Hall instead of UCLA. "J-Rob from The Hall" would've been too much even for me.
(Clears throat)
What if they were on Proton playing The Game?
An interesting thought game. Did Brown dominate football in his era as much as Ruth did in his? I'd have to say probably not,
If Jackie Robinson were playing now, would he get a $300 million contract next season? Would he be known as the "Rod Carew with power?"
**In the 1958 Eastern Conference playoff game the Giants held him to (IIRC) 13 yards in 10 carries, a continuation of what they'd done in the last 59 minutes of the previous week's matchup, which was the game that forced the playoff.
No, but he could score more goals than Wayne Gretzky
A couple years ago I saw a show on PBS where they uncovered the fact that Thorpe also played basketball professionally, barnstorming around the northeast in the late 1920's with a team named after himself. Who knows how good he was but it's still ridiculous that he played all 3 major North American sports professionally and was the Olympic champion in the 2 events that most showcase versatility.
He was second in the nation in goals scored as a senior. More impressive than this sounds because he was a midfielder. It's kind of like Bobby Orr's contending for the scoring title as a defenseman.
Except Orr was a contender at the highest level whenever he was healthy. Brown had a single great year in what was basically a man against boys situation. Plus he had a specific move that's now no longer permitted (used to thumb the ball into his stick and just run through the defense):
(Sometimes called the Jim Brown rule)
One thing I didn't know before today. Brown also kicked in college.
As for versatile athletes there's also Lionel Conacher. A good enough boxer to get knocked out by Jack Dempsey (supposedly only an exhibition but ...). Played for a Grey Cup winner (Canadian Football) in 1921. Played baseball as high as the IL (played for a championship winner in 1926), played for two Stanley Cup winners (and was a first team all-star in 1934), won the Ontario lightweight wrestling championship at 16, and at 20 won the Canadian amateur light-heavyweight boxing championship. Was the top scorer in his only season of box lacrosse (playing in the off-season during his hockey career) . Gave that up to wrestle professionally.
(He played some rugby -- successfully. It's hard to separate his football and rugby careers because the ORFU was transitioning from rugby to football around this time)
A lacrosse-playing friend told me about the same thing, that Brown was as successful as he was because he found a way to play lacrosse like a running back. It certainly fits with the image of Jim Brown that I have more than slinging the ball around like Gretzky would.
jeez Andy--you just HAD to remind me, dincha?
One more reason I think a team of eleven Jim Browns beats a team of eleven anybody-elses.
He was no Bunk Moreland.
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