I have no idea if Pete Rose ever gambled on baseball. Quite honestly, I do not understand the evidence against him, and gambling has nothing to do with whether or not Rose is/or even should be baseball’s “hit king”. However, for some odd reason I would rather have Ichiro as baseball’s all-time hits leader, or at least I think that by the end of his career he should have that title. Maybe I feel that way for selfish reasons, because I was too young to ever see Rose play, but can still remember how excited I got, as a kid, to see Ichiro lead off an All-star game for the American League. Ichiro is the best leadoff hitter I’ve seen play, and the best hitter I have ever seen, at least in terms of hits (my apologies to Barry Bonds), and I think that it’s unfortunate that the incredible numbers he put up in Japan, during his youth, will never be considered in MLB’s record books.
...So, I first took his reasoning at face value and considered how many career hits Ichiro would have had under the assumption that he started in the US at age-20 and put up the same numbers (batting average) as he did in Japan, while playing 162-game seasons. After eliminating Ichiro’s brief age-18 and 19 seasons from the sample, his age-20 to 26 hit total in Japan, translates to 1548 hits, given the MLB’s 162-game season.
I then combined that number with his 2517 career MLB hits, to get a grand total of 4065 hits, just 192 hits away from breaking Rose’s record (4256 hits). ZIPS projects 89 hits for Ichiro the rest of this season; thus he would only need about 100 more hits to become the hit king. Ichiro will become a free agent after this season, but it’s unlikely that he will retire. Although he was around or below-replacement level last season, his defense has been phenomenal this season and could be reason enough for a team to sign him, not to mention the number of fans Ichiro’s name could bring to a new ballclub, for a season. One more season would be all that Ichiro would need to break Rose’s record, in this unrealistic “what if?” scenario.
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1. DA Baracus is gritty and hits with RISP Posted: July 02, 2012 at 09:20 AM (#4171119)Yes. other than the Dowd Report and Rose's own admission that he gambled on baseball while a player/manager we have no idea that he gambled on baseball.
I mean, I know he's missing a lot of years Rose had at the end but, I think if you had told me this methodology first, I would have said it put him safely past Rose at the moment.
This assumes two dubious premises:
1. Ichiro would have been in the majors at 20; and
2. Ichiro would have collected hits in the majors at the same rate per PA that he did in Japan from ages 20-26. (I presume that's what the author did.)
But even if we assume both of those (or even if we don't), yes, Ichiro would have a lot more hits in the majors now than he currently does, and would either be approaching 4,000 or have gone past it.
Is there a point beyond that, or is that it?
His defense wasn't helping much in 2010 and 2011 - at least according to WAR. Now WAR sees him as having a fantastic defensive season. But signing a 39 year old corner OF with a .246 EqA for his defense seems a bit... shortsighted.
It appears that his offense crashed and burned at age 37, despite the insistence of people who for years discarded that very notion as being nearly implausible. But it was always the case - given his lack of plate discipline - that when his batting average slipped he was going to be worthless on offense.
Boggs didn't hit the majors until 24, and didn't become a full time player until 25.
Musial had 3600+ hits, but was playing 154-game schedules, and missed a season due to the war.
Comparing Adjusted Ichiro against Unadjusted Everyone Else is rigging the game. I grant that it's cool that he's a 4,000 combined-hits player, but that should be placed in proper context.
No that's it. Some humans sometimes enjoy considering the road not taken.
To put it into your language;
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lost me right there.
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What is the number of total bases Ichiro collected in each plate appearance during his hot streak in 2004?
Really? If he bottoms out this year, do you think he's coming back? I'm not so sure.
I'd be happy to bet someone a b-r subscription that he comes back no matter what (as long as some team wants him).
<BS Armchair Psychobabble follows>
His approach on offense is so geared towards collecting hits that I can't imagine him just hanging the spikes up as long as someone is offering him the chance to collect more. Basically, like Pete Rose. Or Nolan Ryan with strikeouts.
I like the Old School version better.
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Which is about as coherent as Ray's views on what's Constitutional.
That's easy for you guys to say.
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