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Wednesday, February 08, 2012

DuPaul: How much money has AJ Burnett cost the Yankees?

AJ cooked: Final destination - 2 years.

Burnett has played three seasons for New York, since they signed him to a monster 5-year/$82.5 million contract.  This deal is similar to some other contracts starting pitchers have received recently:

-Justin Verlander 5 years/$80 million

-Felix Hernandez 5 years/$78 million

-Jered Weaver 5 years/$85 million

-CJ Wilson 5 years/$77.5 million

...The Yankees have paid out $49.5 million thus far to Burnett for three seasons of service. Based on Linear dollars per fWAR, Burnett has been worth $28.2 million.  Thus, New York has incurred a net loss of the $21.3 million by having AJ on their payroll. They owe Burnett $16.5 million next season and in 2013; so they’ll continue losing money by having Burnett pitch in the Bronx.  Burnett would need to be worth a total of $54.3 million combined over the next two seasons, for the Yankees to break even on the signing.  In order to do this, AJ would only have to duplicate his ’08 season (18-10, 4.07 ERA, 231 K’s 5.5 fWAR) in 2012, and then duplicate his ’05 season (12-12, 3.44 ERA, 198 K’s, 5.1 fWAR) in 2013.  Shouldn’t be too hard, especially because the Yankees’ website currently lists Burnett outside their starting rotation.

Repoz Posted: February 08, 2012 at 06:42 AM | 6 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: business, projections, sabermetrics, yankees

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   1. Bhaakon Posted: February 08, 2012 at 07:30 AM (#4056167)
Burnett has played three seasons for New York, since they signed him to a monster 5-year/$82.5 million contract.


You call that a monster contract? More like upper middle class, I'd say. It's pretty telling that four of the five comps include multi-year arbitration buyouts.
   2. micker17 Posted: February 08, 2012 at 09:43 AM (#4056209)
John Lackey is a valid comp. CJ Wilson will be, but he has not yet pitched under the new contract so there is no data to judge. Bhaakon has already clearly stated why the other 4 are not at all comparable.

If the Yankees don't have Burnett on the roster in 2009, they don't win the championship. In Yankeeland, that makes the contract worthy.

Unless a few of the Yankee starters go down in spring training, I would expect them to eat $22 of his remaining $33 and trade Burnett for a ham sandwich.

   3. Srul Itza Posted: February 08, 2012 at 02:47 PM (#4056556)
This is New York. Make that a Pastrami on Rye.
   4. JPWF1313 Posted: February 08, 2012 at 03:00 PM (#4056567)
As a Yankee, Burnett has 3.4/6.4 WAR in 584 IP, ERA+ of 93

As a Met Ollie Perez had -0.4/1.6 WAR in 520 IP, ERA+ of 90

my question is can A.J match Ollie, will he even be allowed?

   5. jingoist Posted: February 08, 2012 at 03:45 PM (#4056605)
The Pirates want to thanks the Mets for providing one of the few small rays of hope we experienced in the oughts by taking Perez and a 41 year-young Hernandez for Nady midway through 2006.

   6. Something Other Posted: February 08, 2012 at 04:18 PM (#4056637)
It's easy to forget that Perez wasn't all that bad for the Mets; it was the way the Mets used him and paid him that made the situation go from "oh well" to "oh my God".

Even with his disappointing 2009 Perez gave the Mets 437 innings with an ERA+ of 98. Minaya's customary mishandling of the roster and his typically thin teams led the Mets to give Perez that silly 3/36 contract. It was 'good money after bad' foolishness that led the Mets to trot an obviously done Perez to the mound in 2010 where he threw 46 of the worst innings this side of Jose Lima.

The trade with the Pirates should have been a feather in Minaya's cap, but the man had a real gift for finding the grey linings inside silver clouds.

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