Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Wednesday, October 11, 2017

Dustin Pedroia contemplates surgery, and his future

I look forward to seeing Statcast numbers for infield defense.

Meanwhile, the knee injury impaired other potential contributions. His defensive range may have been diminished. He graded as two runs below an average second baseman, according to Baseball Information Solutions (Fangraphs, by contrast, had him as 6.7 runs above average, as measured by Ultimate Zone Rating). His baserunning ranked near the bottom of the league, as he took an extra base just 16 percent of the time on hits while getting thrown out seven times.

Jim Furtado Posted: October 11, 2017 at 06:34 AM | 44 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: dustin pedroia, red sox

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: October 11, 2017 at 07:58 AM (#5549497)
It's a shame because he still can hit. He's a had a great career. If he retires now, does he make Hall? Any chance?
   2. BDC Posted: October 11, 2017 at 08:21 AM (#5549502)
Complete careers vaguely similar to Pedroia's in terms of OPS+ and PAs. None are super-close. I include Kinsler and Zobrist to show how Pedroia hasn't really pulled away from the pack of his own contemporaries:

Player            dWAR   PA OPSRbaser  HR  RBI   BA  OBP  SLG         Pos
Lou Boudreau      23.4 7024  120   
-5.0  68  789 .295 .380 .415    *6/5H342
Joe Gordon        22.5 6535  120    2.0 253  975 .268 .357 .466      
*4/3H6
Ian Kinsler       16.2 7484  110   41.0 234  839 .273 .342 .447      
*4/DH5
Dustin Pedroia    15.1 6743  114    9.0 140  724 .300 .366 .441      
*4/HD6
Rico Petrocelli   14.4 6171  108  
-12.0 210  773 .251 .332 .420     65/HD43
Vern Stephens      9.1 7241  119    6.0 247 1174 .286 .355 .460     
*65/H79
Jim Fregosi        7.7 7403  113    9.0 151  706 .265 .338 .398   
*635H/D74
Ben Zobrist        7.5 6140  114    9.0 157  693 .263 .355 .428 
*4967/H8D35
Tony Lazzeri       5.3 7315  121    5.0 178 1194 .292 .380 .467    
*45/6H73
Dick McAuliffe     4.1 7161  109    7.0 197  696 .247 .343 .403     
*465H/


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/11/2017.

There are three HOFers on the list, but each was better than Pedroia in some respect, and Boudreau and Gordon better in several (and they were both MVPs too, so Pedroia has no peak argument over either).

Pedroia is an excellent player, kind of like "what if Fregosi or McAuliffe or Zobrist (also excellent players) had had an MVP season." His chances at the HOF, whether he retires now or not, would seem to be based on a future Veterans' Committee's susceptibility to the mythos of the early 21st-century Red Sox.
   3. PreservedFish Posted: October 11, 2017 at 08:28 AM (#5549504)
Pedroia has always seemed like a HOFer to me. He established his HOF ability early on, with the MVP award, and he was always in the playoffs. Strong fielder, does the little things, etc. He's memorable because he's tiny.

That's probably not fair to Zobrist of Kinsler.
   4. Rally Posted: October 11, 2017 at 08:49 AM (#5549522)
(“For whatever people say from the outside, ‘Oh, we don’t have a leader,’ I’m standing right here, been here for a long time. . . . You don’t see anybody else standing up here, do you?”)

I can understand the confusion. He may have been standing up while everyone else was sitting down, but their heads were all on the same level.

Hard to believe he might be done. He's not what he once was but still a fine player this year. It would be a shame if his knee injury is severe enough to force a retirement.

52 WAR, He's in the 1800s for hits and 900s for runs. Chase Utley has a similar hit total, 65 WAR, over 1000 runs scored. If Pedroia plays 4 more years at a high level he'll be a better candidate than Utley, similar WAR with better counting stats. As it is, if Utley is facing a tough vote, Pedroia's will be tougher.
   5. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: October 11, 2017 at 09:11 AM (#5549544)
I would be really sad if this is it for Pedey. He was an excellent player for a good length of time, and he's really not that far from the standard HOF checkmarks. As it stands, his career is actually pretty similar to Bobby Doerr, with Doerr having slightly better counting stats and a bit more power and Pedroia having 1 more bWAR.
   6. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 11, 2017 at 09:13 AM (#5549546)
If he retires now, does he make Hall? Any chance?

Who knows what the voters do, but he clearly doesn't deserve it by modern standards. 6700 PA is very low for the HoF. Just among 2Bs, Whitaker and Grich are much, much better.
   7. Wahoo Sam Posted: October 11, 2017 at 09:16 AM (#5549548)
Pedroia is an excellent player, kind of like "what if Fregosi or McAuliffe or Zobrist (also excellent players) had had an MVP season."


Fregosi was a shortstop. But this is a great analogy otherwise.

A 114 OPS+ on less than 7,000 PAs is not a HOFer. Unless you have a great peak and perhaps some narrative. And Pedroia might. His top three seasons sum to 21.2 WAR, which is far better than the only Boston HOF second baseman, Bobby Doerr (17 WAR). It's better than Jeff Kent, and Hall of Famers Johnny Evers. Nellie Fox, and Tony Lazzeri. But admittedly, that trio is not the HOF standard at the position for modern voters.

Want a longer peak? Pedroia rates 15th all-time in WAR7 (42.5), just a smidge below Alomar and ahead of Biggio, Whitaker, Doerr, Fox and Friends. Also ahead of Billy Herman, a pretty good second baseman. The question is whether voters will give him credit for that peak and ignore the fact that he probably won't fill out his career to get over 60 WAR.

Second base is tricky. It's very unusual for a second baseman to be effective at all after the age of 31 or 32. Pedroia looks like he might succumb to that baseball reality.
   8. Lassus Posted: October 11, 2017 at 09:18 AM (#5549553)
Pedroia would seem to be the dude on the cover of the HOVG coffee table book.
   9. Nasty Nate Posted: October 11, 2017 at 09:25 AM (#5549564)
Technically speaking, it's not mandatory that baseball players be discussed in relation to the Hall of Fame...
   10. Non-Youkilidian Geometry Posted: October 11, 2017 at 09:34 AM (#5549579)
Pedey is signed through 2021, and if he were to retire now he'd be leaving $56 million on the table. I can't see him hanging up his spikes voluntarily at this point.
   11. Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine Posted: October 11, 2017 at 09:44 AM (#5549596)
Technically speaking, it's not mandatory that baseball players be discussed in relation to the Hall of Fame...


I'm confused. How do I know if a player was any good if a bunch of sportswriters don't tell me so five years after he retires?
   12. Rally Posted: October 11, 2017 at 09:47 AM (#5549601)
He doesn't seem particularly interested in money. He left an awful lot on the table in signing his first big contract and his extension. Then again, he was trading the chance to maximize his earnings for security - not explicitly refusing money from a billionaire. So he might as well collect on the secure part at the end.
   13. BDC Posted: October 11, 2017 at 09:47 AM (#5549602)
his career is actually pretty similar to Bobby Doerr

Wondering why Doerr didn't show up in the search in #2, I noted that Doerr had almost 1,300 career PAs than Pedroia has so far. And of course in terms of HOF thinking he gets another 600 or so as WW2 "credit."

Mostly because Doerr was a regular three years younger; he was also a bit more durable. Pedroia might have had slightly more ability relative to his league; Doerr was never an MVP-level; player, but was more consistent.
   14. Traderdave Posted: October 11, 2017 at 09:52 AM (#5549611)
Second base is tricky. It's very unusual for a second baseman to be effective at all after the age of 31 or 32. Pedroia looks like he might succumb to that baseball reality.


Could he conceivably switch to LF or 3B to extend career?
   15. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 11, 2017 at 09:57 AM (#5549620)
Pedey is signed through 2021, and if he were to retire now he'd be leaving $56 million on the table. I can't see him hanging up his spikes voluntarily at this point.

I think "retirement" here just means both player and team recognize he can't medically play anymore. Albert Belle "retired" but collected every penny from the O's, including the meal money for the road trips he didn't go on.
   16. The Good Face Posted: October 11, 2017 at 10:30 AM (#5549676)
I think "retirement" here just means both player and team recognize he can't medically play anymore. Albert Belle "retired" but collected every penny from the O's, including the meal money for the road trips he didn't go on.


Right. As opposed to the Albert Pujols situation where Pujols is willing and able to show up and play every day. Assuming Pedroia is really so medically compromised that he can't play, gotta figure he'll follow the Belle route. But he was still an effective player this year despite his injuries. Is his prognosis really so grim that we've moved from, "hobbled by injuries but still a useful contributor" to "medically incapable of playing" in a single offseason?
   17. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 11, 2017 at 10:49 AM (#5549703)
Is his prognosis really so grim that we've moved from, "hobbled by injuries but still a useful contributor" to "medically incapable of playing" in a single offseason?

I would think that depends on the success of the surgery, doesn't it?
   18. The Good Face Posted: October 11, 2017 at 11:00 AM (#5549728)
Is his prognosis really so grim that we've moved from, "hobbled by injuries but still a useful contributor" to "medically incapable of playing" in a single offseason?

I would think that depends on the success of the surgery, doesn't it?


I guess. It's just from the article, it seemed as though this was a standard, "athlete's knee is messed up, needs yet another surgery" type of situation. While there's always a chance things could go sideways from any surgery, I just didn't get the sense there was anything special or unique that made this career threatening, such as Albert Belle's degenerative hip for example. Especially since Pedroia was a decent player WITH the injury.
   19. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: October 11, 2017 at 11:01 AM (#5549730)
Right. As opposed to the Albert Pujols situation where Pujols is willing and able to show up and play every day. Assuming Pedroia is really so medically compromised that he can't play, gotta figure he'll follow the Belle route. But he was still an effective player this year despite his injuries. Is his prognosis really so grim that we've moved from, "hobbled by injuries but still a useful contributor" to "medically incapable of playing" in a single offseason?


Knowing nothing about his knee I'd pencil him in for a 120G 100 OPS+ season with decent defense. So, pretty much what he did this season. Having the full offseason to diagnose the knee and come up with a treatment and playing plan seems like it should be easier than trying to figure it out in the middle of the season. And at this point, whoever the new manager is, should be able to sit Pedroia more. enough with him trying to plan through every injury and just making them linger.
   20. Baldrick Posted: October 11, 2017 at 11:04 AM (#5549738)
Technically speaking, it's not mandatory that baseball players be discussed in relation to the Hall of Fame...

Technically speaking, you can start a separate conversation if you want instead of just reposting the same comment in a million threads while providing no alternative content.
   21. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: October 11, 2017 at 11:10 AM (#5549749)
I'm confused. How do I know if a player was any good if a bunch of sportswriters don't tell me so five years after he retires?

You know because Pedroia himself will be happy to tell you.
   22. Nasty Nate Posted: October 11, 2017 at 11:12 AM (#5549755)
I can't get the linked article to open, are there any quotes from Pedroia himself?
   23. PreservedFish Posted: October 11, 2017 at 11:45 AM (#5549802)
Second base is tricky. It's very unusual for a second baseman to be effective at all after the age of 31 or 32. Pedroia looks like he might succumb to that baseball reality.


Hasn't this been disproven? I think, at the least, Pedroia will be able to mock Brandon Phillips' late 30s, which isn't terrific but also isn't nothing.
   24. Ithaca2323 Posted: October 11, 2017 at 12:01 PM (#5549826)
Technically speaking, it's not mandatory that baseball players be discussed in relation to the Hall of Fame...


I'm sure there wasn't a robust discussion about Clint Barmes' chances when he retired.
   25. Nasty Nate Posted: October 11, 2017 at 12:41 PM (#5549873)
I'm sure there wasn't a robust discussion about Clint Barmes' chances when he retired.
Not exactly, but: http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/newsstand/discussion/rockies_to_sign_michael_cuddyer
Defensive stats are still not that great, but if Barmes actually is the fantastic defender BRef WAR shows, it certainly does, and lot's of people would take Barmes.

Last 3 years, Barmes has an 81 OPS+ and ++ defense. Ozzie Smith is in the hall of fame with a similar (thought better) profile.
   26. bunyon Posted: October 11, 2017 at 12:57 PM (#5549892)
Pedroia: Player-manager.
   27. Ithaca2323 Posted: October 11, 2017 at 12:58 PM (#5549897)
I mean, I think you get that my point wasn't about Barmes, but plenty of players retire without a peep about HOF chances.
   28. Nasty Nate Posted: October 11, 2017 at 01:11 PM (#5549918)
Oh sure. My #25 was tongue-in-cheek.

I will point out that Pedroia hasn't retired.
   29. Textbook Editor Posted: October 11, 2017 at 03:12 PM (#5550087)
Could he conceivably switch to LF or 3B to extend career?


The Red Sox are (at the moment) covered at both places by young players who can play those positions, likely better than Pedroia (who doesn't have the arm for 3B).

This is a "Jeter to CF?"-type situation, in that basically Pedroia can play 2B or DH. He could also probably play 1B, but he's (a) obviously quite shorter than most 1B and (b) his bat/power doesn't play there anymore.

It's entirely possible 1 year off recovering from surgery will allow a "dead cat bounce" in 2019/2020--because his body will have a year off from the beating it usually takes... but there's no guarantee surgery cures all the ills, he'd be 1 year older, etc.
   30. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: October 11, 2017 at 03:25 PM (#5550112)
Pedroia would seem to be the dude on the cover of the HOVG coffee table book.


Ugh, get it off my table!
   31. Captain Supporter Posted: October 11, 2017 at 03:34 PM (#5550127)
He'd get my vote. But then again, I'm a guy who takes the Fame part of the Hall seriously.
   32. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 11, 2017 at 04:42 PM (#5550246)
He'd get my vote. But then again, I'm a guy who takes the Fame part of the Hall seriously.

But the actual HoF doesn't.

Voting shall be based upon the player's record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played.
   33. Walt Davis Posted: October 11, 2017 at 06:25 PM (#5550393)
The best positive comp for Pedroia's HoF chances is probably Kirby Puckett who somehow glided in with little problem. Reasonably similar narratives, very popular with fans, I assume Pedroia is popular with writers. It would be harder for writers to "fill in" the rest of his career at a high level and Puckett was a perennial all-star while Pedroia hasn't been since 2010 (I'm quite surprised by that). Pedroia's got the MVP but Puckett has lots of high finishes.
   34. The Yankee Clapper Posted: October 11, 2017 at 06:48 PM (#5550423)
The best positive comp for Pedroia's HoF chances is probably Kirby Puckett who somehow glided in with little problem.

It's a bit irrational, but Puckett's non-baseball health problem, glaucoma, was treated much differently than all the players on a HoF path who were derailed by typical baseball injuries, e.g. Mattingly's bad back or Nomar's wrist problems. Pedroia wouldn't seem to be within the Puckett precedent.
   35. Srul Itza Posted: October 11, 2017 at 07:25 PM (#5550498)
With Pedroia, if he is done, the problem is not just the lack of years, but also the fact that he missed a lot of time in season. He played 75 games in 2010, 135 in 2013, 93 in 2015 and 105 this year. Setting aside his one month in 2006, that's a big chunk out of an 11 year career. He has topped 150 games only 5 times.

Peak is important, but some amount of career bulk is still sought.

By contrast, since he turned 24, Cano has played at least 150 every year, and 159 or more 8 times.

Durability may not be a "talent", but it (or the dumb luck to avoid injury) is a useful "trait" in a player.



   36. Walt Davis Posted: October 11, 2017 at 08:23 PM (#5550621)
Pedroia wouldn't seem to be within the Puckett precedent.

One never knows but covered under "it would be harder for writers to "fill in" the rest of his career at a high level."

To say that Puckett is his most positive comp is not a prediction that Pedroia will make it. It is a statement that, to make it, the voters will have to view him like Puckett.

I suspect there were two reasons that Puckett's end was treated differently. The main one is that his career ended rather than declined. That's what allowed voters to "fill in" the rest of his career. A secondary one is that although it was known by then that the glaucoma was not caused by the beaning, that was the initial suspicion and, given how inattentive many voters were/are, a reasonable chunk of voters might not have gotten the word.

Anyway, there's no "rational" reason for Puckett to be in the HoF (at least not on first ballot). There's no "rational" reason for Rice to be in the HoF, no good reason for Morris to have come as close as he did. "Irrational" examples don't offer much predictive value but they do clearly show that the voters will sometimes adopt a player. Small, popular, "tough as nails," "plays the game the right way," "leader" on many successful teams, MVP -- there are plenty of reasons why Pedroia might get adopted. Puckett had the great smile and made everybody feel like a kid again; Pedroia's small stature and hairline made every 40-year-old sportswriter feel an affinity for him.

The official comparison:

KP 51 WAR, 25.5 WAA, 124 OPS+, >2300 H, >1000 R and RBI, 10 AS, 6 GG
DP 52 WAR, 30 WAA, 114 OPS+, <2000 H, <1000 R, <<1000 RBI, 4 AS, 4 GG, 1 MVP, 1 RoY

As noted, the counting stats probably doom him. No matter how much the voters might want to vote for him (and many will want to), those will likely stop enough of them that he never gets close enough to election to matter. If he comes back diminished, he might pass some key counting stats but the rate stats will come down so that's unlikely to help him. (Barring a surprisingly long late career.)
   37. cardsfanboy Posted: October 11, 2017 at 08:30 PM (#5550628)
It's a bit irrational, but Puckett's non-baseball health problem, glaucoma, was treated much differently than all the players on a HoF path who were derailed by typical baseball injuries, e.g. Mattingly's bad back or Nomar's wrist problems. Pedroia wouldn't seem to be within the Puckett precedent.


I'm sure someone is going to find a fault with that comment, but I agree, Puckett was treated different than others because of his injury (might have) was perceived to be non-physical, meaning that it wasn't part of the normal skill of suiting up everyday, and instead as a disease (but of course Tim Raines didn't get that type of respect from the writers---of course his "injury" was when he was 40 not 36 so that also played into it)


Puckett really is a fairly unique case, a guy who in his last season was still posting a 130 ops+, he accumulated 22 rbat that year, the number of players who are NOT in the hof(or active), who accumulated 20 rbat in their last season numbers eight including Puckett, the others are Bonds, Ortiz(who will probably be off of this list in a few years), Will Clark, Roy Cullenbine(which is another time his name has popped up recently, but he was a product of his times), Buzz Arlett(only played one season), Joe Jackson, Steve Evans(Federal league), and Happy Felsch(another black sox) It's just not normal for a person to leave the game while being among the best unless outside forces intervenes(Will Clark is the exception, and it probably cost him serious consideration by a future veterans comittee for the hof)
   38. cardsfanboy Posted: October 11, 2017 at 08:45 PM (#5550635)
Durability may not be a "talent", but it (or the dumb luck to avoid injury) is a useful "trait" in a player.


I think some of the difference in the voting between Larkin and Alomar was at least a bit based upon Larkin's inability to stay in the lineup. (not that it made much of a difference in the end, but between two players with superficially similar numbers and accolades, Alomar did significantly better on the hof voting getting 73.7%/90.0% vs Larkin 51.6%/61.2%/86.4%----there were of course other factors)

I also think that some of Larry Walker's low vote totals is because of that perception...(although lack of counting numbers is probably doing even more damage, and writers historic inability to grasp the value of all around players is also playing heavily into the voting)
   39. Booey Posted: October 11, 2017 at 09:42 PM (#5550706)
Puckett isn't really statistically worthy of the HOF, of course, but his easy election isn't nearly the "WTF?" surprise people here seem to think. I remember thinking that he'd probably make it in pretty quick.

Yes, some of the voters probably gave him some injury and (fake) nice guy credit, but they didn't really even need to. Puck hit .318, the 4th highest avg of anyone who debuted post WW2 (behind no power guys Gwynn, Boggs, and Carew). That alone goes a long way (look at how Vlad and his .318 avg is doing vs comparable or superior sluggers). Kirby was considered a major star; 10 all star selections in 12 years, 6 gold gloves, 6 silver sluggers, did well in MVP voting (7 top 10 finishes, including a 2nd and two 3rd's), good amount of black ink (avg, rbi, hits x 4, total bases x 2), five 200 hit seasons (including 4 straight), .309/.361/,536 postseason line with an ALCS MVP and 2 WS titles.

Puckett is a Lou Brock type HOFer, who looks iffy in hindsight but seemed pretty obvious at the time.

The Muddy Chicken needs to pad his counting stats some more to even reach Pucketts abbreviated totals.
   40. Walt Davis Posted: October 12, 2017 at 12:55 AM (#5550891)
Puck hit .318, the 4th highest avg of anyone who debuted post WW2 (behind no power guys Gwynn, Boggs, and Carew). That alone goes a long way (look at how Vlad and his .318 avg is doing vs comparable or superior sluggers).

His BA was an important factor. But here again we see the effect of him not having to suffer through his decline phase.

BA, ages 24-35, expansion era, 6000+ PA (so a bit narrower than post-ww2)

Carew, Gwynn, Boggs
Ichiro 333
Clemente 331
Helton 329
Walker 324
Vlad 321
Jeter 320
Miggy 319
Puckett 318
Manny 317
Rose 317
Piazza 316
Brett 314
Votto 313
Maggs 312
Chipper 310
IRod 310
Grace 310
Oliver 310

Still an impressive ranking and, importantly, most of those ahead of him reached age 35 after his election and would not have been comps. The quality drops off dramatically around that 310-312 mark with Maggs, Grace and Oliver in particular. Lots of HoVG types sit between 300 and 310 -- Holliday, Mauer, VMart, Madlock, Bernie, Mattingly, Cooper, Polanco, WClark, Garvey, Parker ... and Pedroia. Anyway, hitting 300+ over the 7000-8000 PA prime of a HoVG career is not particularly uncommon. Maintaining it when you've got reasonable playing time 22-24 and 36-40 is another matter, although Puckett very likely would have (hitting about 245 in another 2300 AB still leaves him at 300 and over 2800 hits).

Not that b-r sim scores are very useful for anything except maybe old-school HoF evaluation (and we seem to have lost the nifty comparison table) but the top 3 careers for Puckett are Mattingly, Cooper and Maggs and the top five through age 35 are Oliver, Parker, Garrett Anderson, Bernie and Garvey. But mostly they aren't particularly strong comps (sim scores <900).

But this is the point. There are lots of players down here and some catch the eye of the BBWAA. For Brock it's obvious -- 3000 hits, career and season SB records, great postseason. For Ortiz, it will be 500 HR, 1750 RBI, some great clutch performances, Big Papi leadership narrative. For Rice though it's really a mystery. For Cepeda, he just missed by BBWAA and it's not clear why he was so high. Perez got through on tons of RBI over an insanely long career.

Pedroia's narrative is probably not good enough to capture that vote ... and the counting stats definitely hurt. But, if this is effectively it, that is his only hope for making the HoF. Therefore, guys like that are the positive comps ... then there are 50 negative comps.

At current count, there have been 55 players in the integration era with 45-55 career WAR. 14 of them are not yet eligible and 3 of those are a good bet to be >55 WAR when they're done. Nine of them are in the HoF, three of those by VC. They are the guys mentioned plus Kiner (7 HR titles is a nice narrative), Doby (pioneer narrative), Reese and Fox.

For you WAA fans, of those 55 players, Pedroia is tied for third with David Wright -- Votto #1, Doby #2. Puckett is only 16th but it's only a 4 WAA spread from 7 to 23.

Career WAA is pretty useless for identifying who actually gets in (and not very useful for who should) and that's true here too -- Brock #53, Perez #45, Cepeda #44, (Fox #42), Rice #41, (Reese #19), Kiner #18.

The active guys are Votto, Pedroia, Longoria, Mauer, Braun and Granderson. Since he's just 31, Longoria probably has the best shot by reaching some reasonable milestones -- but <1500 hits, 261 HR is not particularly promising. Votto we've talked about a lot so we have a good idea of what he needs to cross the line. Mauer could get adopted. MVPs are always useful to stand out in this group.

The best thing all these guys have going for them is that HoF ballots are looking mighty thin in a few years. They'll have to vote for somebody.
   41. Rally Posted: October 12, 2017 at 10:21 AM (#5551016)
I mean, I think you get that my point wasn't about Barmes, but plenty of players retire without a peep about HOF chances.


Most players retire without a peep. Spring training comes around and they don't have a contract. They might get a non-roster invite, might go back to AAA and hope to work their way back. Then a year goes by without the player playing MLB.
   42. Rally Posted: October 12, 2017 at 10:24 AM (#5551021)
Looks like that's the path of Barmes, I don't know if his name was brought up as a hypothetical or if his retirement actually became a BTF thread.

Last played MLB in 2015. Played AAA in 2016 in Royals system. Didn't get called up, last played in May, didn't play organized ball (defined as any pro baseball league that BBref keeps track of) in 2017.
   43. SoSH U at work Posted: October 12, 2017 at 11:12 AM (#5551091)
Puckett was widely acknowledged as the best player on a team that won two World Series titles. I don't know why that gets routinely ignored as a key factor in his easy path to induction, but it shouldn't.
   44. QLE Posted: October 12, 2017 at 11:32 AM (#5551131)
To discuss Pedroia, using a favorite tool of mine:

Player/seasons with 5+ WAR/number of years among ten best players in WAR/number of years among ten best position players in WAR/WAR in ten best seasons:

Rogers Hornsby: 13/15/15/98.6
Eddie Collins: 14/10/15/84.0
Napoleon Lajoie: 12/8/13/77.3
Joe Morgan: 10/5/8/74.8
Charlie Gehringer: 8/6/9/65.1
Rod Carew: 7/5/7/62.7
Robinson Cano: 7/6/6/61.6
Jackie Robinson: 6/6/6/61.5
Chase Utley: 6/5/6/59.4
Bobby Grich: 7/4/7/58.4
Ryne Sandberg: 6/5/6/57.3
Frankie Frisch: 4/5/8/56.2
Roberto Alomar: 6/3/5/55.2
Joe Gordon: 7/7/7/55.1
Craig Biggio: 5/3/4/53.3
Dustin Pedroia: 6/3/4/51.5
Ian Kinsler: 6/2/3/51.0
Lou Whitaker: 4/2/3/50.6
Willie Randolph: 4/1/2/48.3
Bobby Doerr: 6/5/6/46.0
Billy Herman: 3/3/4/45.3
Nellie Fox: 4/5/6/45.1
Jeff Kent: 3/2/2/45.1
Chuck Knoblauch: 4/3/4/45.0
Tony Lazzari: 3/2/4/43.8
Ben Zobrist: 4/3/3/43.4
Cupid Childs: 3/2/4/42.3
Johnny Evers: 3/3/5/41.5
Tony Phillips: 3/1/1/41.5
Del Pratt: 1/0/5/41.1
Larry Doyle: 2/1/4/39.7
Buddy Myer: 2/2/2/38.6
Bid McPhee: 2/0/5/38.4

By this method, Pedroia is 16th among second basemen. Even making adjustments for Whitaker being affected by the 1981 strike, Doerr and Herman by WWII service, and Cupid Childs by relative season length, he still ranks 20th- and, unless you want to give Randolph substantial credit for bulk, there aren't any players that would be beneath him that I am sincerely convinced are better. Moreover, by my methods, for a position player active post-1904, a score of 50 in terms of best ten years in WAR is enough to get over the line.

The problem facing Pedroia? There are two second basemen who are his direct contemporaries who are substantially better, in Cano and Utley, and one who is essentially his equal in Kinsler. Cano I think should have no problems with the BBWAA, but I'd be shocked if Utley get in through them, and how Kinsler fares will probably depend on what he can produce going forward.

The performance of the players with similar value to Pedroia is also not a positive indicator- Doerr and Herman never did especially well in BBWAA voting and are in due to the Veterans Committee, Fox needed both the Veterans Committee and an image of being the best defensive player of his day, we all know the Whitaker and Randolph stories, and Biggio is clearly in for his compiled stats (which are clearly out of reach for Pedroia) rather than his peak.

The one thing that Pedroia may have going for him that is not visible in the raw data is the intangible factor connected to those Red Sox championships- and, even then, I have the bad feeling that will aid Ortiz (who I consider an inferior player who in substance is roughly on the level of the likes of Cepeda, Perez, and Puckett), and not Pedroia.

For these reasons, I feel he deserves HOF induction, but am skeptical that it will occur anytime soon. On the other hand, he should have it much easier with the HOM- he's clearly much better than Jeff Kent, who they might end up inducting before Pedroia reaches them.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
There are a lot of good people in alt-Shooty
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOTP 16 October 2017: Sorry, Yankee fans: Trump’s claim that he can ensure victory simply isn’t true
(1845 - 9:06pm, Oct 21)
Last: PreservedFish

NewsblogALCS Game 7 OMNICHATTER, for October 21, 2017
(37 - 9:06pm, Oct 21)
Last: Joyful Calculus Instructor

NewsblogOT - NBA 2017-2018 Tip-off Thread
(437 - 8:20pm, Oct 21)
Last: tshipman

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 10-19-2017
(17 - 8:18pm, Oct 21)
Last: Hysterical & Useless

NewsblogDeadspin: Please Enjoy(?) 21 Years Of Joe Buck Hyping Forgotten Fox Shows
(19 - 8:15pm, Oct 21)
Last: Hysterical & Useless

NewsblogOT - October 2017 College Football thread
(81 - 8:02pm, Oct 21)
Last: greenback is not cosmopolitan

NewsblogOT: Winter Soccer Thread
(10 - 7:58pm, Oct 21)
Last: Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine

NewsblogDusty Baker Will Not Be Back as Manager
(70 - 7:57pm, Oct 21)
Last: Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine

NewsblogTheo Epstein: Joe Maddon has taken enough heat, don’t blame NLCS on Cubs manager | NBC Sports Chicago
(28 - 7:38pm, Oct 21)
Last: Andere Richtingen

NewsblogAstros beat Yankees to force Game 7 in ALCS | MLB.com
(20 - 7:32pm, Oct 21)
Last: The Yankee Clapper

Gonfalon CubsFive minute Los Angeles Dodgers Preview
(95 - 7:31pm, Oct 21)
Last: Pops Freshenmeyer

NewsblogAngell: Bringing the Yankees Home?
(4 - 7:11pm, Oct 21)
Last: You're a clown, RMc! I'm tired of it!

Sox TherapyQuestioning the Winter
(16 - 6:15pm, Oct 21)
Last: Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine

NewsblogOT: New Season August 2017 Soccer Thread
(1189 - 2:43pm, Oct 21)
Last: Nose army. Beef diaper? (CoB)

NewsblogHeyman | Tigers To Hire Ron Gardenhire
(32 - 1:30pm, Oct 21)
Last: Greg Pope

Page rendered in 0.3497 seconds
47 querie(s) executed