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Monday, August 29, 2011

Dusty Baker talks about his Reds lineups

Baker, 62, does not do Twitter or other social media. But Baker knows the critics are out there because, for one thing, he hears them during games. Batting orders, pitching changes, you name it. Everyone is an expert.

“Nothing works all the time, I don’t care how you do it,” Baker said. “This game is basically about matchups and the odds.”

Making a lineup can take several hours, Baker said. Reams of scouting reports are available, and Baker well knows the strengths and weaknesses of his players. Baker also tries to gauge his players’ physical and mental conditions, things unknown to the average fan.

“Sometimes it wakes me up at 4 o’clock in the morning, with a thought about changing the lineup,” Baker said. “Sometimes I do it the night before, and then I get in the next day and I might change it.”

...“No matter what’s been said, we must be doing something right because we’re leading the league in runs scored,” Baker said. “I know sometimes we don’t hit, but I’d hate to see what it’s like when a team really doesn’t hit. You just play the odds, mix and match your personnel.

“Contrary to popular belief, there’s a lot of thought process that goes into it on a daily basis.”

Or you could just use The Lineup Analysis tool and go back to bed.

Repoz Posted: August 29, 2011 at 05:06 PM | 23 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: history, projections, reds, sabermetrics

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   1. The Essex Snead Posted: August 29, 2011 at 05:24 PM (#3911477)
Kinda surprised that the line-up I would've made for the current Reds roster matches what Dusty threw out there yesterday. Have they tried Alonso at third yet (he asks, knowing how awful YA is defensively)?
   2. charityslave is thinking about baseball Posted: August 29, 2011 at 06:17 PM (#3911533)
Yonder Alonso should play third only if the opposing team consists entirely of one legged left handed pull hitters who promise not to bunt, and Scott Rolen is dead and buried so deep as to be impossible to disinter.
   3. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: August 29, 2011 at 06:20 PM (#3911537)
Supposedly Yonder said on camera last night that Dusty told him he'd start at 3B today.
   4. 1k5v3L Posted: August 29, 2011 at 06:20 PM (#3911538)
I was 100% sure Repoz's link lead to this... I've also seen a Cinci version
   5. 1k5v3L Posted: August 29, 2011 at 06:21 PM (#3911540)
Yup, here we go... The problem (or brilliance) with these dice is that Votto is one of the options...
   6. Don Geovany Soto (chris h.) Posted: August 29, 2011 at 07:06 PM (#3911578)
#2 is outstanding.
   7. Ok, Griffey's Dunn (Nothing Iffey About Griffey) Posted: August 29, 2011 at 07:08 PM (#3911580)
The problem (or brilliance) with these dice is that Votto is one of the options...


Votto, bunt
   8. hokieneer Posted: August 29, 2011 at 07:12 PM (#3911585)
Somehow the image in #5 and the phrase Dusty's Dugout dice is making it into my fantasy football team name.
   9. Walt Davis Posted: August 29, 2011 at 07:20 PM (#3911591)
One thing the Reds have done well at is not hitting into DPs. They've got just 78 (#2 in the league) while being 4th in OBP and 7th in Ks so I assume lots of opportunities. They're also #1 in HR which doesn't suck.

I see that Drew Stubbs is gonna cruise right by 200 Ks. Is Brenneman hammering him the way he hammered Dunn?

I see that in true Dusty fashion, he's somehow managed to squeeze in 5 starts in a month for Alonso. You wouldn't want to risk breaking the kid's confidence by getting him in the lineup regularly.

Unlike Choi, the kid refuses to stop hitting despite the sporadic use. 5 for 13 with a 2B and HR in his spot duty and 9 for 17 with 2 doubles and 2 HR when he starts. With 3 K and 6 walks in 36 PA, the kid clearly has no business being out there. :-)

Y'know, it's one thing for a kid to "start" 467/556/867 in 36 PA (or 339/400/576 if you want to include last Sept's 29 PA) but to do so when those 36/65 PA are spread out over 1/2 months including just 5/8 starts ... it's damned impressive really. Alonso needs to be on another team.
   10. hokieneer Posted: August 29, 2011 at 07:30 PM (#3911599)
I see that Drew Stubbs is gonna cruise right by 200 Ks. Is Brenneman hammering him the way he hammered Dunn?

Nightly, though not as vicious as the #### Dunn received. Stubbs runs fast and doesn't walk, so it's obvious he cares.

Y'know, it's one thing for a kid to "start" 467/556/867 in 36 PA (or 339/400/576 if you want to include last Sept's 29 PA) but to do so when those 36/65 PA are spread out over 1/2 months including just 5/8 starts ... it's damned impressive really. Alonso needs to be on another team.

As much as I want to see Alonso hitting for Cincinnati, I begrudgingly agree. If he's not going to play, then trade him for someone Dusty will. Or just get rid of Dusty, that'll work until everyone realizes he'll cost the reds 58 runs in LF in 2012.

I'm amazed Dusty was playing Cozart as much as he was. It was so anti-Dusty.
   11. The Essex Snead Posted: August 29, 2011 at 07:39 PM (#3911611)
Yeah, either the Reds need to get tons of GB pitchers in their rotation, not pay attention to Alonso's LF defense, or just flip him for something useful. & given the Reds are (wow) 13 back, it's not going to kill their playoff standing to give him an uninterrupted month in the OF to show what he can/not do.
   12. McCoy Posted: August 29, 2011 at 07:42 PM (#3911616)
If he's not going to play, then trade him for someone Dusty will.

The Cubs have Reed Johnson who would seem like the perfect Dusty-type player.
   13. Boxkutter Posted: August 29, 2011 at 08:05 PM (#3911655)
And here I thought the link was going to show this.
   14. TDF, situational idiot Posted: August 29, 2011 at 08:23 PM (#3911679)
I see that Drew Stubbs is gonna cruise right by 200 Ks. Is Brenneman hammering him the way he hammered Dunn?

During yesterday's game, he and Brantley were wondering aloud about Stubbs sitting regularly here on out so he doesn't get to 200 Ks.
I see that in true Dusty fashion, he's somehow managed to squeeze in 5 starts in a month for Alonso. You wouldn't want to risk breaking the kid's confidence by getting him in the lineup regularly.
Where? Are you going to start him in front of Votto? You've seen what a disaster he is in LF, and no one outside of the team knows if he can play 3B at all. They can't trade him now, but I fully expect Alonzo to be somewhere else by opening day next year.
I'm amazed Dusty was playing Cozart as much as he was. It was so anti-Dusty.
I'm not going to defend Baker, because (1) he's shown he doesn't care what anyone thinks, and (2) knowing that, I still regularly swear at his image on TV. That being said, he stuck with Bruce last year when many thought he should be sent to AAA to work things out, and he gave regular playing time to Stubbs last year in the middle of a pennant race when he could have easily given it to Edmonds (who had 4 starts for the Reds in CF). Dusty also said Cozart would get most of the playing time when he was called up, and Cozart never gave him a reason to change that thinking.

EDIT: I know I said I wouldn't defend him, then I did. Live with it.
   15. TDF, situational idiot Posted: August 29, 2011 at 08:34 PM (#3911690)
Oh, and before you say "Yea, Votto should get a few extra days off" he's currently 1st in fWAR and 3rd in bWAR among hitters in the NL.
   16. hokieneer Posted: August 29, 2011 at 08:41 PM (#3911696)
Oh, and before you say "Yea, Votto should get a few extra days off" he's currently 1st in fWAR and 3rd in bWAR among hitters in the NL.

He's also about as hot as any hitter in baseball right now.

I wish they would just play Alonso 20 or so games in LF down the stretch. The Reds aren't making the postseason, and I'm sure most Reds fans would love to see alonso get 80 some PA, regardless of his defensive, over Fred Lewis. If he hits anywhere near what he's been hitting in whatever kind of rotation Dusty has him on, someone will pay a nice price for him in the offseason, defense be damned.
   17. vortex of dissipation Posted: August 29, 2011 at 11:59 PM (#3911881)
As a Reds fan, Alonso makes me wish the NL had the DH...
   18. tshipman Posted: August 30, 2011 at 12:21 AM (#3911893)
If Billy Beane were still alive, he'd be offering up something tantalizing for Alonso.
   19. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: August 30, 2011 at 12:33 AM (#3911901)
Baker said. “This game is basically about matchups and the odds.”


If this is true, why did he trot out a lineup of RRLLLRRR tonight?
   20. Mike Emeigh Posted: August 30, 2011 at 12:47 AM (#3911908)
You've seen what a disaster he is in LF, and no one outside of the team knows if he can play 3B at all.


He played 3B a little in college.

Alonso really doesn't have a lot of experience in the outfield. I'm of the opinion that he will at least be passable out there once he gets some more work there - maybe a trip to instructionals in the offseason.

-- MWE
   21. SteveM. Posted: August 30, 2011 at 01:39 AM (#3911946)
Alonso really doesn't have a lot of experience in the outfield. I'm of the opinion that he will at least be passable out there once he gets some more work there - maybe a trip to instructionals in the offseason.


Did you see him play the outfield? The only person I have ever seen worse out there was Todd Hundley. Alonso should never play anywhere other then 1B or DH.
   22. Sam M. Posted: August 30, 2011 at 02:01 AM (#3911974)
Alonso really doesn't have a lot of experience in the outfield. I'm of the opinion that he will at least be passable out there once he gets some more work there - maybe a trip to instructionals in the offseason.

Did you see him play the outfield? The only person I have ever seen worse out there was Todd Hundley. Alonso should never play anywhere other then 1B or DH.


I did. Here in Louisville. I kind of agree with both positions: I think he's terrible out there, and I doubt he'll be passable even with more experience. But I also think that the Reds have very little to lose at this point by giving him 20 games or so of experience the rest of the way and seeing if he shows some improvement. More important, they let their own FO staff and coaches make their own judgment about his raw tools and then they have some additional information on which to base their decisions this off-season.

Alonso is also Votto-leaves-insurance. I suspect the Reds are reluctant to pull the trigger on a deal sending his bat away, and then find themselves short offensively if they can't sign Votto to an extension. Maybe they're even thinking the unthinkable: if they can't sign Votto, trade him away this winter and install Alonso at 1B.
   23. Walt Davis Posted: August 30, 2011 at 05:55 AM (#3912078)
As many have noted, you stick Alonso in LF for the rest of the season. Reds are going nowhere and they don't need to find out about Lewis or Heisey. Granted, the Reds are going nowhere so there's not a lot of value in playing Alonso every day either other than giving you a little more data by which you and others can judge him.

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