For me, it’s a matter of just going out there and executing the save. The numbers are all going to follow.

Like your WHIP? And hey, how's the K/BB ratio looking compared to last year?

All I’ve got to do is execute and keep this [he pats his shoulder] intact.

... Which is why I don't throw my splitter anymore.

"keep this intact".......(presumably until the ink on the multi-year deal dries, then poof)

So he's already had one pretty serious shoulder issue, and this year he's having severe control problems which have resulted from him continually messing with his motion in an effort to take strain off his shoulder. His arm slot looks like it's dropped from last year and his stuff is nowhere as good as a result.

Yet he really thinks it was a good idea to turn down guaranteed money while still being arb-eligible. There's a fine line between confidence and stupidity.

I've never liked Papelbon, but I have to admit that his use of "ixnay" in that excerpt has me hesitating a bit. If I hear him casually say "bupkis," "copacetic" or "kibosh," I'm officially on the bandwagon.

He even conjugated it correctly!

There's a fine line between confidence and stupidity.

And some people can straddle that line - Papelbon is stupidly confident.

No, I don’t think I’m a gambling man

Pap was born in Baton Rouge. That doesn't lend him to being a gambler, though I suppose that could make him a Ramblin Man.

"Im on my way to New Orleans this mornin,
Leaving out of Nashville, Tennessee,
Theyre always having a good time down on the bayou,
Lord, them delta women think the world of me."

Just sayin...

There is little doubt, in my mind, that Paplebon has modified his mechanics and pitch selection in a concerted effort to extend his career, partially because of his fear of future shoulder problems.

As a Red Sox fan, I am increasingly nervous about a one-run lead entering the 9th inning. His velocity is down, his control is down - last night, he walks A-Rod, the pinch runner easily steals second base, and the final out is a fly ball to warning track in left. Included in between was a swinging K of Cano.

Personally, I think the Red Sox will let him walk if and when he gets to free agency...and they may trade him before that point. Bard and Delcarmen both have the ability to close games in the future, if they continue to develop.

As a Red Sox fan, I am increasingly nervous about a one-run lead entering the 9th inning. His velocity is down, his control is down - last night, he walks A-Rod, the pinch runner easily steals second base, and the final out is a fly ball to warning track in left. Included in between was a swinging K of Cano.

How dare he! Walking a terrible, terrible hitter like A-Rod, he should be ashamed of himself. And then having the audacity to not strike out the last batter!

I agree with your overall point that Papelbon does not look as dominant as he has in the past, but being uneasy because Papelbon didn't strike out the side? Seems a bit over reactionary.

If he's that scared of future shoulder problems, he probably should have accepted the $15 million deal when offered, no?

I don't blame a guy for gambling on himself and certainly Papelbon is entitled to attempt to make the most money possible in the best way he sees fit. But from this corner it appears he's making a mistake. His shoulder issues seem to have caused him to lose effectiveness this season due to loss of control and changing his motion, which will cost him money come FA time. And yet it sounds like if he had continued to use the same pitching motion he used when so devastatingly effective in 07-08, it would have given his shoulder more troubles, which also would have cost him money.

So if the article is correct and he didn't sign the deal over a couple of hundred grand, he's taking an enormous risk over such a relatively small amount of money. If he blows out his shoulder over the next two years, he won't get anything. My .02 is that like most good pre-arb pitchers, he would have been better off taking the big money contract when offered. He's not morally obligated to do so or anything like that; it just strikes me as the best choice in this risk-reward scenario.

So he's already had one pretty serious shoulder issue, and this year he's having severe control problems which have resulted from him continually messing with his motion in an effort to take strain off his shoulder. His arm slot looks like it's dropped from last year and his stuff is nowhere as good as a result.

Yet he really thinks it was a good idea to turn down guaranteed money while still being arb-eligible. There's a fine line between confidence and stupidity.

?? And in this matter he's clearly on the side of confidence. Sure, he had "one pretty serious shoulder issue." But compared to other pitchers' injuries, it seems tame. In five seasons, he's missed, what, one month? And turning down guaranteed money? He was getting $6.25 million for this year, and for all intents and purposes that was guaranteed. The article quotes an offer of less than $15 million, but doesn't say for how many years. He's already 40% there! And if tomorrow he has a shoulder injury or something and is out for 8 months, do people really believe the Sox would non-tender him next offseason? The only way this could really hurt him is if he suffers a career-ending injury during this season - and I mean career-ending as in never throws an inning in the bigs again. And if the offer bought out a year of free agency, maybe he didnt want to sacrifice the freedom.
In the article, Edes comments that Papelbon turning down the multi-year deal was "undoubtedly to the irritation of his employers." If so, thats a good sign that he can get a better deal and more money.

There's been a lot of gnashing of teeth about Papelbon on BBTF lately. This is extremely bizarre, considering that its based on 26 very effective innings from a 28-yr old with an impeccable track record.

If he blows out his shoulder over the next two years, he won't get anything.

If he blows out his shoulder during next year, his 2009-2010 salary will almost get to the $14 million he turned down! what is he risking?

Only hyper-priveleged crybabies whine about a closer who's blown only one save all year because he walked somebody while throwing yet another scoreless inning.

There's been a lot of gnashing of teeth about Papelbon on BBTF lately. This is extremely bizarre, considering that its based on 26 very effective innings from a 28-yr old with an impeccable track record.

Of course, his track record up until this season is fantastic. No one is arguing that. But this season has shown some very troubling signs. Almost total loss of control (from a guy who previously didn't walk ANYONE), long laborious innings, very few 1-2-3 innings, etc. His rate stats are all the same except for the walks, but the difference between this year and the last two is startling. Something is definitely up with the guy.

Only hyper-priveleged crybabies whine about a closer who's blown only one save all year because he walked somebody while throwing yet another scoreless inning.

Or you know, we're just talking about a guy's performance. God forbid. If you want to just go by blown saves and ignore some of the other things surrounding him, be my guest. When a pitcher's walk rate quadruples from one year to the next, it's pretty fair to wonder what's up.

When a pitcher's walk rate quadruples from one year to the next, it's pretty fair to wonder what's up.

We'll see what his walk rate is like at the end of the year. And sure the extra walks so far are mildly troubling. But i still don't see how he was stupid to turn down a club-friendly deal.

There's been a lot of gnashing of teeth about Papelbon on BBTF lately. This is extremely bizarre, considering that its based on 26 very effective innings from a 28-yr old with an impeccable track record.

Only hyper-priveleged crybabies whine about a closer who's blown only one save all year because he walked somebody while throwing yet another scoreless inning.

Seriously. Let's chill out on worrying about a guy's K/BB ratio so much after 20-something innings when he's still been extremely effective, huh?

For those who don't know, the whole alphabet follows:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M8Pk1UYkB3I

"Only hyper-priveleged crybabies whine about a closer who's blown only one save all year because he walked somebody while throwing yet another scoreless inning."

Geez, our starting pitching has been, for most of the season, below expectations. We've gotten nothing much from shortstop, and our DH has been one of the worst everyday hitters in baseball for the first third of the season. Despite these things, the Red Sox still have the best record in the AL, and the second-best record in baseball. I don't think you'll find a lot of Red Sox fans "crying or whining".

However, part of good management is trying to identify opportunities or risks as early as possible, so that you can proactively address the situation. In a vacuum, Paplebon walking A-Rod (or anybody) and then stranding them on base to preserve a one-run win is absolutely a non-event.

The point of discussing it, though, is that it is not happening in a vacuum, and that it may (emphasis, may) be part of a larger trend. Paplebon, in New England-area media, talks about his shoulder more than most pitchers do. He has talked about his anxiety a few years ago, when he thought he had significantly damaged his shoulder, and how that remains on his mind.

By all accounts, he regularly tinkers with his pitching motion, and the mix of his pitches has absolutely changed in 2009. By all accounts, while he can dial up the fastball to the upper 90s, his fastball is consistently a few (about 3) MPH slower this year.

Despite all of the above, though, Francona does not appear to be changing any usage patterns with Paplebon, and Paplebon has had several appearances where he has thrown a lot of pitches. (Consider that in 2008, he threw more than 20 pitches in an appearance 11 times during the regular season, and only two of those reached 30 pitches. So far in 2009, he has exceeded 20 pitches 10 times already, and has thrown 30 or more pitches four of those times, mainly due to increased walks.) If management was worried that his shoulder could explode tomorrow, they wouldn't allow this. If they thought his shoulder might explode in a few years, though...well, I have the feeling they believe that may not be their concern in three years or so.

Also, if he were that worried about his shoulder, he may well have accepted a $14-$15 million contract, which would basically make him set for life, no matter what happened to his shoulder.

The point to all this, which is what makes it fun to discuss, is that the messages are mixed, he's an important, high-profile member of a high-profile team, and it is worth monitoring.

And some people can straddle that line - Papelbon is stupidly confident.

Confidently stupid.

Confidently stupid.

And if there's a Primate who knows a thing or two about being confidently stupid...

Said the kettle to the pot.

Also, all confidently stupid primates get banned eventually. Despite my best efforts, I've failed miserably at that.
The opportunities are going to be there. All I’ve got to do is execute and keep this [pats head] intact.

Also, all confidently stupid primates get banned eventually. Despite my best efforts, I've failed miserably at that.

If Furtado were a Mets fan, you might have been a contender.

Also, all confidently stupid primates get banned eventually. Despite my best efforts, I've failed miserably at that.

If you don't take part in the politics threads, then you're not making your best efforts to get banned. Those are the spots where idiots are truly given their chance to shine brightly before they burn out - be sure to make fun of libertarianism while you're there.

I don't really see how the Red Sox could possibly be more careful with Papelbon. He never throws three days in a row, and if he tops 25 pitches or so, he always gets the next day off. He usually has one multiple inning save per month in the first half of the season, and then picks up later.

This isn't a criticism - the attrition rate on closers is pretty terrible, and Papelbon's value increases in the playoffs, so you want him ready to pitch big innings in October and November. All I'm saying is that I see zero evidence that the Red Sox are failing to protect Jonathan Papelbon's arm, as implied in #18. What would they do, set him a fixed work schedule like a minor leaguer?

As to worrying about Papelbon's current and future effectiveness, there are different ways to do this. Saying that the change in arm angle and the increased walk rate seem to go together, and are possibly worrisome going forward, seems fair. Saying that the change in arm angle and the increased walk rate show that Jonathan Papelbon is dumb for not signing a below-market deal with the Red Sox and maybe even that the Red Sox are lucky not to have him locked up longterm, and maybe further that the Sox could trade Jonathan Papelbon, all seem pretty much indefensible given the evidence we have.

Consider that in 2008, he threw more than 20 pitches in an appearance 11 times during the regular season, and only two of those reached 30 pitches. So far in 2009, he has exceeded 20 pitches 10 times already, and has thrown 30 or more pitches four of those times, mainly due to increased walks

To address the specific case, these are, with one exception, all 1 inning outings. I don't think there's any way to guarantee a pitcher will throw fewer pitches in a single inning - that he's thrown more pitches is, as you say, a function of wildness, not a function of any choices made by management.

I guess you could be suggesting that the Red Sox should be pulling Papelbon mid-inning when he reaches a certain pitch count. I think that's not reasonably possible to implement, and such a strategy would fall so far outside of traditional bullpen management that the choice not to pull Papelbon isn't something which we can read any particular meaning into.

20 is not the most useful cut-off because Papelbons pitch counts run:

39, 35, 30, 23, 22, 22, 21, 21, 21, 19, 19, 18, 17, 15, 15, 13, 13, 12, 11, 8

I don't think any of those other than the three big ones are troubling numbers at all. And he got a day off after each 30+ pitch outing.

If you don't take part in the politics threads, then you're not making your best efforts to get banned. Those are the spots where idiots are truly given their chance to shine brightly before they burn out - be sure to make fun of libertarianism while you're there.

So that's the key to success around here... thanks for the heads-up

the more I think about it, the stupider it would have been for Papelbon to accept that offer, assuming it covered at least 2009-2011.

ERA down to 1.80