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Wednesday, February 08, 2012

Edes: ‘Think Factory’ projects falloff for Ellsbury

Hey, I must have missed the internal primer-list on this…because I never got a say!

Jacoby Ellsbury will see and hear a lot of this in the coming weeks, questions about whether he can duplicate his MVP-worthy performance in 2011.

Dan Szymborski of Baseball Think Factory weighed in on the subject on ESPN Insider. Here are his thoughts:

2011 Projected OPS: .733
Actual OPS: .928

...Historically, when players have had these kinds of home run breakouts, their follow-up seasons have been a mixed bag. However, players have generally kept quite a bit of improvement from even the flukiest-looking home run totals. While Ellsbury might not hit 30 again, it’s extremely likely he’ll continue to hit more than the 10 he was hitting just a few years ago. ZiPS projects a decline to 16 home runs, but that’s with only 560 projected plate appearances—if Ellsbury gets 732 plate appearances, he should hit 20 again.

Repoz Posted: February 08, 2012 at 10:19 AM | 50 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: projections, red sox, sabermetrics, zips

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1. JE

Posted: February 08, 2012 at 10:36 AM (#4056245)

Had Edes still been working at the Globe, would this article have included two or three paragraphs' worth of snickers about bloggers and basements?

2. Jose Can You Seabiscuit Posted: February 08, 2012 at 10:39 AM (#4056247)

2012 projection: .290/.345/.457, 16 HR, 62 RBIs, 40 SB

That's from the article and Dan notes that it's only 560 plate appearances, a big drop off from the 732 he had last year. If he can put up those numbers with soemthing on the order of 625-650 PA and remain the defender he was last year I'll be quite satisfied. I can't imagine anyone rational thinking Ellsbury won't drop off some from last year.

3. The Piehole of David Wells, Depends Salesman

Posted: February 08, 2012 at 11:33 AM (#4056311)

Had Edes still been working at the Globe, would this article have included two or three paragraphs' worth of snickers about bloggers and basements?

Had Edes worked for the Globe, they wouldn't have referred to an internet site at all. Since they both work for ESPN now, though, ESPN is using one of its writers to promote the pay section of its own website.

4. Ray (RDP)

Posted: February 08, 2012 at 11:52 AM (#4056337)

I don't think it's exactly radical to predict that Ellsbury's performance will drop off. Expecting a player to repeat his career year would be the more tenuous position.

I do think he'll settle in to be a good to very good player.

5. Tippecanoe Posted: February 08, 2012 at 12:17 PM (#4056369)

Radical Think Factory has introduced an innovative concept called 'regression to the mean'. It's controversial, groundbreaking stuff.

6. Sam Hutcheson is the Rickey Henderson of... Posted: February 08, 2012 at 12:28 PM (#4056379)

The story here is that Dan is referred to in an ESPN article as a "Think Factory" writer.

7. Sam Hutcheson is the Rickey Henderson of... Posted: February 08, 2012 at 12:29 PM (#4056381)

I don't think it's exactly radical to predict that Ellsbury's performance will drop off. Expecting a player to repeat his career year would be the more tenuous position.

Yet people keep telling me Eli Manning is suddenly something special. Weird.

8. SoSH U at work Posted: February 08, 2012 at 12:29 PM (#4056382)

The story here is that Dan is referred to in an ESPN article as a "Think Factory" writer.

I thought that odd as well.

9. Dan Szymborski

Posted: February 08, 2012 at 12:46 PM (#4056406)

The story here is that Dan is referred to in an ESPN article as a "Think Factory" writer.

Not really, it's a big place with writers with a whole array of contract statuses and I'm still affiliated with BTF, too (they've let me keep Baseball Think Factory under my name so far). I doubt Edes would know what I do and where I do it to the extent that writers like Law or Kahrl or Keri do.

10. Dan Szymborski

Posted: February 08, 2012 at 12:49 PM (#4056413)

Radical Think Factory has introduced an innovative concept called 'regression to the mean'. It's controversial, groundbreaking stuff.

I can tell you that "regression to the mean" is a concept absolutely despised by the average fan, especially for a youngish player coming off an MVP-type year.

11. SoSH U at work Posted: February 08, 2012 at 12:56 PM (#4056421)

I doubt Edes would know what I do and where I do it to the extent that writers like Law or Kahrl or Keri do.

I suppose it's possible for Edes to not know you're an ESPN writer, but surely someone along the way from Edes' lap top to its publication should have recognized that the Think Factory guy with the funny name is also ESPN's own Dan Szymborski

12. Dan Posted: February 08, 2012 at 02:21 PM (#4056517)

I think that Ellsbury will probably not hit 30+ home runs again this year; 20-25 seems like a reasonable expectation, but I do expect his walk rate to jump up a bit as pitchers pitch him more carefully. So I'm thinking he might end up with a line around .300/.375/.480.

13. Walt Davis Posted: February 08, 2012 at 02:39 PM (#4056550)

I have a far more important issue to raise.

WTF is going on with baseball-reference and nicknames? We need some standards here.

According to b-r, Ellsbury's "official" nickname is:

Tacoby Bellsbury

Oh please.

14. Dan Posted: February 08, 2012 at 02:45 PM (#4056553)

I'm pretty sure that nickname originated on this site during the 2007 World Series when he stole a base, which gave everyone free tacos in some promotion from Taco Bell.

15. Balkroth Posted: February 08, 2012 at 03:32 PM (#4056595)

I suppose it's possible for Edes to not know you're an ESPN writer, but surely someone along the way from Edes' lap top to its publication should have recognized that the Think Factory guy with the funny name is also ESPN's own Dan Szymborski

I would assume since he linked to him in the second sentence as an espn insider article that he knew about it, unless he just assumed it was a guest writer or something.

16. Dale Sams Posted: February 08, 2012 at 03:34 PM (#4056596)

Tacoby Bellsbury

All I know is that John Sterling is feverishly at work now trying to come up with some home-run calls for him.

I'll bet every time he hits a HR, Boras goes "KA-CHING! The Ellsbury Dough Man strikes again!"

17. thetailor Posted: February 08, 2012 at 04:15 PM (#4056632)

Tacoby Bellsbury

That's like the three-hundredth worst nickname on BB-Ref for an active player. There are some real bad ones that 1) I haven't heard of AND 2) aren't funny. At least this one is somewhat interesting and grounded in what #14 said.

18. Tuque

Posted: February 08, 2012 at 04:47 PM (#4056672)

Tacoby Bellsbury! My brothers and I aren't the only ones who use that any more. I'm so happy.

I used to Google that phrase occasionally to see if anybody else ever called him that too. It was surprisingly rare. I'm satisfied to see that it's gone mainstream. It's so much better than J-Ells or whatever godawful drivel those plebeian sportswriters would fart out.

Edit: I clearly haven't checked recently because now it's all over the place. I guess this means I can now focus my attentions on getting more people to refer to the young Royals first baseman as Eric "Boss" Hosmer.

19. akrasian Posted: February 08, 2012 at 05:33 PM (#4056720)

I guess this means I can now focus my attentions on getting more people to refer to the young Royals first baseman as Eric "Boss" Hosmer.

Is that a reference to the motorcycles or the German band?

20. akrasian Posted: February 08, 2012 at 05:34 PM (#4056724)

Youtube link for the latter

21. Nasty Nate Posted: February 08, 2012 at 06:00 PM (#4056747)

Tacoby Bellsbury! My brothers and I aren't the only ones who use that any more. I'm so happy.

you sir are history's greatest nickname monster. ... or maybe I'm just bitter because my "Dizzy" Matsuzaka never caught on.

22. chris h. is a member of Team Keefe! Posted: February 08, 2012 at 07:09 PM (#4056808)

I guess this means I can now focus my attentions on getting more people to refer to the young Royals first baseman as Eric "Boss" Hosmer.

Is that a reference to the motorcycles or the German band?

I assumed it was a Dukes of Hazzard reference.

After Fukudome hit a homer in his first game as a Cub, I was sort of hoping "F-Bomb" would take off, but then he didn't hit much of anything.

23. rudygamble Posted: February 08, 2012 at 07:22 PM (#4056816)

We've thrown out a bunch of nicknames on Razzball and the only one that's spread even on the Interweb is Andrew 'Dread Pirate' McCutchen. I liked 'Blanco Polanco' for Jeff Keppinger but he never delivered on his ".320 with little else on offense" potential. And, from a fantasy perspective (I know about his dWAR/TZ/UZR, I liked Adrian "El Senator" Beltre (because he campaigns every 6 years (2004, 2010) making promises he doesn’t live up to once under contract) but he's delivering on this last contract thanks to being in Texas instead of Seattle...

24. ray james Posted: February 08, 2012 at 08:07 PM (#4056837)

Not really, it's a big place with writers with a whole array of contract statuses

Bit of a stretch to suggest Edes doesn't know you're working for ESPN, Dan.

25. Tuque

Posted: February 08, 2012 at 08:19 PM (#4056843)

Is that a reference to the motorcycles or the German band?

To be honest, it's not a reference to anything, I just think it's a badass name.

26. Robert in Manhattan Beach Posted: February 08, 2012 at 08:24 PM (#4056845)

Yet people keep telling me Eli Manning is suddenly something special. Weird.

Eli has always be good, folks have finally figured it out. Of course the Manning shadow hurts him, if he had been born 'Colt Rifleman' he'd have been in the elite group long ago.

27. puck Posted: February 08, 2012 at 09:42 PM (#4056877)

WTF is going on with baseball-reference and nicknames? We need some standards here.

I don't think they require much justification/citation. Someone on a Rockies site claim they emailed in to say Helton's nickname was "the Toddfather" due to a pre-season ad they ran one year and BB-ref added it. I don't know if anyone actually uses that nickname. The ad made sense at the time because it was during the "Todd and the Toddlers" phase where it was just him and his big fat contract and a bunch of pre-arb players. Now that they have the Tulo and the Geezers infield, it doesn't make much sense.

28. Jose Can You Seabiscuit Posted: February 08, 2012 at 10:52 PM (#4056908)

After Fukudome hit a homer in his first game as a Cub, I was sort of hoping "F-Bomb" would take off, but then he didn't hit much of anything.

My parents were in Chicago for their anniversary during Fukudome's first year as a Cub. As part of the trip they went to see a game at Wrigley (actually did the double, Wrigley during the day, new Comiskey at night). Anyway, my mother got confused before the game seeing a lot of people wearing shirts that said "Fukudome." Unfamiliar with this player she thought there was a movement to replace Wrigley with a dome and Cub fans were expressing their displeasure at such a thing without overtly cursing.

29. Jose Can You Seabiscuit Posted: February 08, 2012 at 10:55 PM (#4056910)

Nicknames in general suck. As a society I think we are less florid with language than we once were so things like the Commerce Comet and the Wild Horse of Osage sound silly, particularly when spoken aloud. It seems that most nicknames now are either some sort of pun or the always delightful and innovative "first initial and first three" giving us abominations like "D-Low" which really is just his first initial and entire last name any-#######-way. I can control the fits with medication.

My personal favorite nickname at the moment isn't even a baseball nickname, it's "the law firm" for Patriot Running Back BenJarvus Green-Ellis.

30. Dock Ellis on Acid

Posted: February 08, 2012 at 11:23 PM (#4056921)

The whole Tacoby Shellsbury thing came when Taco Bell was giving away a free taco to everyone for a day if someone stole a base in the 2007 World Series. Sure enough, Jacoby did so.

31. Barnaby Jones Posted: February 08, 2012 at 11:30 PM (#4056922)

One of my greatest accomplishments in life was e-mailing bb-ref to get "Burger King" to redirect to Ray King.

32. Select Storage Device Posted: February 08, 2012 at 11:38 PM (#4056926)

Was it not Tacoby Bellsbury? Seems to make more sense.

My personal favorite nickname at the moment isn't even a baseball nickname, it's "the law firm" for Patriot Running Back BenJarvus Green-Ellis

It's my personal mission to have at least one male offspring named "Law". He'd be ready made for a marketing campaign. I had a poster as a kid of Darryl Strawberry standing in a strawberry patch, and it clearly had an effect on me. He's layin' down the Law... on baseballs. The likelihood of him ending up an athletic superstar is incredibly low, but just in case.

Please say a prayer for me to find the right girl who would let me get away with such nonsense.

33. Russ Posted: February 09, 2012 at 12:37 AM (#4056935)

I doubt Edes would know what I do and where I do it to the extent that writers like Law or Kahrl or Keri do.

34. Russ Posted: February 09, 2012 at 12:39 AM (#4056938)

Although, now I'm a little sad, because all those times in the thread say 3:00 am. :( My original post was going to say 1:30 am until I thought I would be able to link to some evidence.

BTW, it took me less than 2 minutes to find a discussion between you and Law from 15 years ago about something on RSB. God Bless The Internet.

35. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: February 09, 2012 at 12:42 AM (#4056939)

It's my personal mission to have at least one male offspring named "Law".

Here's a tip; I wouldn't mention this unless you want to be single your whole life. Unless of course your surname is Mann, then it's very cool. The kids name of course being Law Mann.

36. Squash Posted: February 09, 2012 at 02:33 AM (#4056971)

Although, now I'm a little sad, because all those times in the thread say 3:00 am. :( My original post was going to say 1:30 am until I thought I would be able to link to some evidence.

For me here on the West Coast they all say 12am. Google Corporate is the center of the universe.

37. Bob Evans Posted: February 09, 2012 at 11:06 AM (#4057093)

It's my personal mission to have at least one male offspring named "Law".

Make up some Polish heritage (if you must), name him Bronislau, and affectionately shorten it to "Law".

38. Dan Szymborski

Posted: February 09, 2012 at 11:28 AM (#4057113)

Well of course he wouldn't know what you do to the extent that those other guys do... I mean, Edes probably was still using AOL when you exchanging thoughts on Aaron Sele with Law at 3:00 in the morning on Usenet message boards.

Man, I loved Jeff Frey then, didn't I?

I'm annoyed that I'm still pretty much the only one calling Darren Oliver "Buzz." I'm very annoyed about that - how can you have a guy chased out of a baseball game by a swarm of bees and *not* call him Buzz?

39. Jose Can You Seabiscuit Posted: February 09, 2012 at 11:33 AM (#4057120)

how can you have a guy chased out of a baseball game by a swarm of bees and *not* call him Buzz?

Seriously? I'd never heard that before, that's fantastic.

40. Dan Szymborski

Posted: February 09, 2012 at 11:34 AM (#4057123)

Here's the story of the bees.

After that, I felt calling him Buzz was a requirement, not an option.

41. chris h. is a member of Team Keefe! Posted: February 09, 2012 at 12:43 PM (#4057189)

Agreed on Buzz. That's awesome.

I love clever nicknames. Like Jose mentioned above, the first-initial-then-three-letters-of-last-name nicknames are dumb, and I'll have no truck with them. But c'mon, this is the sport that gave us Oil Can Boyd and Mark "The Bird" Fidrych! The Big Unit!

Also, if you're not actively campaigning to get the Pirates to trade for Brian Roberts and then nickname him "The Dread Pirate," then you are just wasting everybody's time.

42. Dock Ellis on Acid

Posted: February 09, 2012 at 12:48 PM (#4057194)

I thought Joey Bats was the best nickname I've heard for a baseball player in a long time. But I think that says more about the state of nicknames these days than anything else.

43. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 09, 2012 at 12:58 PM (#4057207)

I thought Joey Bats was the best nickname I've heard for a baseball player in a long time. But I think that says more about the state of nicknames these days than anything else.

Good semi-recent nicknames: the Big Hurt, the Mexicutioner, ????

It's really grim.

44. Howie Menckel Posted: February 09, 2012 at 01:52 PM (#4057252)

I never got any traction with my "Magilla Padilla" for Vicente

doesn't work out loud, but looks good on paper.

and enjoyed the frequent headlines for that journeyman whenever he switched squads:

"RAY KING LEAVES"

Apollo of the Box and Death to Flying Things were awesome nicknames more than 100 years ago, too.

45. Justin 'The Cespedobear' T Posted: February 09, 2012 at 02:15 PM (#4057272)

It's my personal mission to have at least one male offspring named "Law".

This kid would never get laid.

46. Der_K is feeling better now. Posted: February 09, 2012 at 02:26 PM (#4057289)

Dan, at least your win estimate was pretty good - and Frye did end up hitting .312 that year. Plus, while Valentin wouldn't have committed 30 errors at second (I presume that was meant as hyperbole) - his skills/weaknesses were part of why he never got much time at second again (seven career chances), his worst IF position.

47. Misirlou's got a busy day, he's wearing a vest Posted: February 09, 2012 at 02:29 PM (#4057294)

BBREF has the following choices for Manny Ramirez:

Man-Ram

Manny Being Manny

Mannywood

Come on! The latter 2 aren't nicknames. No one called him "Manny being Manny or Mannywood". Those were phrases used in discussions about him.

As for recent nicknames, I think "Doc" Halladay is just about perfect.

48. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: February 09, 2012 at 02:38 PM (#4057306)

No one called him "Manny being Manny or Mannywood".

Along those lines, did anyone ever say, "How are you Death to Flying Things?" I wonder if a lot of the great old nicknames existed in print only.

49. chris h. is a member of Team Keefe! Posted: February 09, 2012 at 02:43 PM (#4057314)

I've been trying to get my family members to call me "The Equation" for some time.

They're not having any of that.

50. Baldrick Posted: February 09, 2012 at 03:06 PM (#4057338)

People call him Manny-Being-Manny all the time.

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Edes: ‘Think Factory’ projects falloff for Ellsbury

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