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Tuesday, October 24, 2017

Emma Span: A Rival Scout Breaks Down the Astros Ahead of the World Series

Houston won the ALCS because they used starters in their bullpen. They didn’t use relievers. It’s not sustainable. I don’t know what they’re gonna do, I really don’t. I’m not going to be terribly shocked if Dallas Keuchel pitches three times, or Justin Verlander does … Houston has struggled on the road, obviously. They’re more comfortable in their ballpark, which is a hitter’s paradise.

Multi-year park factor for Minute Maid Park: 91. As of last winter, it was the best pitcher’s park in the game.

Anyway, it’s supposed to be a scorcher in LA today, with a projected high of 102. More of the same tomorrow. Play ball!

 

Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: October 24, 2017 at 01:17 PM | 8 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: houston astros, los angeles dodgers, preview

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   1. oscar madisox Posted: October 24, 2017 at 02:10 PM (#5561001)
Houston has struggled on the road, obviously. They’re more comfortable in their ballpark, which is a hitter’s paradise.


Is this really true? Sure, they didn't hit in Yankee Stadium in the ALCS, but they are not a bad road team. They were 53-28 on the road in the regular season and did win the ALDS in Boston.

   2. jmurph Posted: October 24, 2017 at 02:18 PM (#5561006)
Multi-year park factor for Minute Maid Park: 91. As of last winter, it was the best pitcher’s park in the game.

Is this really true? Sure, they didn't hit in Yankee Stadium in the ALCS, but they are not a bad road team. They were 53-28 on the road in the regular season and did win the ALDS in Boston.

These kinds of articles always give the impression that there is no such thing as fact-checking in the scouting world. Like they still don't have access to the internet. "Hmm, they feel like they've been a bad road team, let me check their actual record." I probably do a search like that 3-5 times a week just to fact check my posts here, and I'm very much not a scout.
   3. villageidiom Posted: October 24, 2017 at 03:15 PM (#5561053)
Houston has struggled on the road, obviously. They’re more comfortable in their ballpark, which is a hitter’s paradise.
Sounds like they scouted the Yankees, and then just crossed out their name, put Houston's in place of it, and removed "left-handed power" from in front of "hitter's paradise".
   4. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: October 24, 2017 at 03:40 PM (#5561086)
I probably do a search like that 3-5 times a week just to fact check my posts here, and I'm very much not a scout.


Me, too. It's very weird. And all I'm trying to do is win an argument on the internet.
   5. Tony S Posted: October 24, 2017 at 04:16 PM (#5561115)
Using starters in the bullpen is obviously not sustainable over a 162 game season, but over a short series, which is all that matters at this point, it's something a team can pull off. That said, the Astros could use some deep games from Keuchel and Verlander...
   6. Jess Franco Posted: October 24, 2017 at 04:25 PM (#5561126)
Houston has struggled on the road, obviously.

Best road record in the majors, as noted.

Dodgers in six.
   7. Howie Menckel Posted: October 24, 2017 at 04:34 PM (#5561135)
the Astros just need good sequencing. like if they won routinely tonight and get blown out tomorrow night, you've shortened the series to best-of-5, the few decent RPs you have are still well-rested, and they can indeed go with SPs in relief later in the series.

of course they want to win as blowout every night, but if they have to lose - blowout is a preferred result.
   8. Walt Davis Posted: October 24, 2017 at 05:42 PM (#5561183)
Houston actually has the staff to pull off a fun experiment. Sure, maybe the WS isn't the right time to experiment but what do I care? :-)

Anyway, a 3-man rotation of Keuchel, Verlander and, say, Morton, slated to go 5 innings then a fixed rotation of Devenski, Peacock, McCullers in relief for 2-3 then hope for the best. All 3 of those "relievers" have starting experience and Devenski was used for more than one inning reasonably often this season. Obviously feel free to swap out Morton for one of Peacock, McCullers ... or to plan on pulling Morton after 18 batters for McCullers or vice versa. It would be a little harder to manage that in an NL park but that can be worked around. (Are Fiers or McHugh healthy? Either could provide long relief if the Astros are getting blown out).

It is true that in the first few games of the series, you can't rely on any of your 4 starters for relief but from G5 on, you do what you have to.

Anyway, the Astros are a poor man's Big Red Machine (more SP heavy than RP heavy though) and their most likely path to victory is hitting well in at least 3 games and hoping something goes right in one of the other 4. Their pen's not likely to matter a whole lot, they probably can't win if the offense doesn't show up. I know, just 20 runs against the Yanks and out-scored so it is possible but they don't want to rely on getting lucky twice.

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