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Sunday, February 18, 2018

Eric Hosmer surprised Red Sox didn’t pursue him | The Kansas City Star

His actions don’t match Marrero’s info. If he really believed in himself and wanted to play for a contender, he would have signed a three- or four-year deal with a contender for a higher AAV. Hosmer’s priority, though, was clearly getting the most guaranteed money. I don’t begrudge him for it but, in the short term at least, he’ll be playing in a lot of meaningless games.

Now, the overall dollars on the deal aren’t bad. $21 million a year for five years then $39 million over the last three isn’t crazy. If he doesn’t decide to opt out after five years, though, the team could be locked into mediocrity (or worse) play out of the position. The Padres would then be in an Pujols situation. The worst part about the Albert Pujols deal isn’t the money he’s owed. It’s that the Angels feel compelled to play him. As a fan I’m not concerned about an owner making less money after signing an expensive guaranteed contract with a free agent; it’s having my team locked into a guy who stinks for an extended period.

On Sunday, Marrero told Boston media members that Hosmer was surprised the Red Sox didn’t push for his services.

“I mean, yeah,” Marrero told the Boston Globe. “He obviously wanted to play for a contender. That’s what everybody wants to do. And play for this great city, this great organization, which has a winning tradition. I mean, he would have loved to be here just like everyone else for sure.”

....

“He’s not that type of person,” Marrero told WEEI.com. “He’s the type of guy who wants what he wants and he’s going to get what he wants. He knows his value and he knew what he wanted and that was it. He kept working hard every day. He was the same old guy every day. We live together. We train together every day. Nothing was different. He just knew what he wanted and he was going to wait until he got it. ...

“There was nothing in him that was worrying him or anything like that. He knew he was going to get what he was going to get. I’m sure he’s happy making a decision, that’s why he waited so long. He’s not the type of person. He’s not the type who freaks out, who panics and stuff like that. He was cool as a cucumber. He handled it perfectly. He got bullied there a little bit at the beginning, but that didn’t faze him. He knew his worth and got what he deserved.”

That faith in himself paid off as Hosmer is getting an eight-year, $144 million contract with the Padres.

Jim Furtado Posted: February 18, 2018 at 02:27 PM | 20 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: eric hosmer, free agents, padres

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   1. Walt Davis Posted: February 18, 2018 at 04:11 PM (#5626636)
C'mon this is nothing like Pujols. The Padres will have no qualms walking away from 3/$39 if Hosmer stinks. And if he doesn't stink, the he's useful to them or somebody else at that price.

The first point is potentially better but what kind of shorter/higher deal could he have gotten? This 8/$144 is probably about the same NPV as 5/$125 suggesting he wasn't getting short/high offers in that neighborhood. You'd have to be offering at least 4/$100 to get him to think about trading extra security for a chance at winning. We have no reason to believe anybody was offering that choice.
   2. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: February 18, 2018 at 05:07 PM (#5626657)
#1, agreed. Other then KC, who would be offering more then 5/100? I can't see the Red Sox offering this guy more then that. The Sox fans had discussions about Hosmer early on and other other then Jose's unexplained love fest, I think the consensus at 5/90 or so was tolerable. He wanted more, simple as that...and got it, so good for him. SD is a really nice town, great life style and pretty much the best weather in the world unless you like the cold, then it's not really for you.
   3. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: February 18, 2018 at 05:42 PM (#5626668)
It’s not unexplained! It may be misguided of course but I’m always right (except when I’m wrong).

I think the Sox were never particularly interested in Hosmer. I think they probably talked about him early on as a Martinez ploy. As you might expect I like this deal for the Padres. The AAV is such that he really doesn’t have to be anything great to be worth the deal and if he opts out the Padres probably got much more value than what they spent.

And from the standpoint of Hosmer it’s hard to think he’s disappointed by this. He’s got his length of contract, big dollars and a hell of a place to live. On top of that either the Padres put it together and contend or in 3-4 years they deal him to a contender if he’s playing well. Plus he already has a ring.
   4. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: February 18, 2018 at 07:30 PM (#5626701)
Jose, jokes aside mate, I do agree with your assessment. I know Walt has pulled up comparisons in one of his longer posts about Hosmer and most of the comps are half way decent. As pointed out, the money isn't huge unless he craters at 30 which even I don't think will happen. The irony is that he went somewhere that suppresses homers so that should work ok for him since he hit a lot of balls on the ground this past year anyway(or have I got that wrong).
I just didn't want him around for 8 years, I was happy for the Sox to go like 5/95 but Eric obviously, and correctly it seems, believes he is worth more then that.

Now let's just get this JD 5/127 contract thing done and move on...
   5. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: February 18, 2018 at 07:57 PM (#5626708)
JDM would make me very happy I won’t lie. But at this point I just don’t care. I’m sick of this dragging on. I’d take LoMo or even Dickerson if we don’t get him.
   6. Walt Davis Posted: February 18, 2018 at 07:58 PM (#5626709)
I was surprised the Red Sox jumped so quickly on re-signing Moreland. I assume they knew (and double-checked) that whatever Hosmer wanted was much more than what they were willing to do. Not that they couldn't trade or eat Moreland's contract but once he was signed, you don't sign Hosmer for big money to be your DH.

Still don't particularly like it for SD because they already have Myers under control for several years.

Hugh, sure he had the KC option but they're in no better shape to contend now than SD is. On my obviously brilliant comps, it still comes down a lot to what Hosmer's defense is really like -- I was guesstimating about 15 oWAR over 7 years and it was a matter of whether he'd add 3 WAR with defense or he'd lose 3 WAR with defense. A six win spread is a lot of money even over 8 years. And good point about going somewhere that suppresses HRs ... although I think that was mostly for RHB and that they solved a lot of that moving the LF wall in a few years ago. But maybe I'm confusing SD with somewhere else.

Let's see ... last year they had a pretty big H/R split but for 2014-17, HRs at home and away

bat 300 323
pit 325 372

OK, that's pretty big, 11% more on the road than at home. But then KC has been pretty good for runs but not HRs over the years:

bat 257 317
pit 304 381

That's 19% more on the road -- he might find SD a homer haven!

Regardless, we're not talking more than a couple of HRs here or there either way.
   7. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: February 19, 2018 at 04:42 AM (#5626763)
Hosmer may be surprised, but as a Red Sox fan, I am relieved they did not pursue him.

I basically had the same feeling about Hosmer, that I had a few years ago about Sandoval. Where going into the offseason, my number 1 wish was for them to NOT sign him.
Now I did not expect the Panda to turn out as terrible as it did. And I don't expect Hosmer to either. But I would not be surprised. But they are both average-ish players, who just don't have the kind of upside that makes them worth risking that kind of liability.
   8. The Duke Posted: February 19, 2018 at 08:33 AM (#5626778)
Fenway is a tough place to play. Can’t imagine why someone who has put up three mediocre years would want to go there. It would seem like the worst place for a guy who sometimes struggles to put it altogether. I’m not surprised he was looking at laid back towns to ply his trade - seems like he knows himself.

That and $144 million guaranteed.
   9. eddieot Posted: February 19, 2018 at 11:59 AM (#5626883)
Given how little the Sox have done in the offseason, Hosmer could have been playing a lot of meaningless games in Boston too. The Padres have the makings of a decent team in a few seasons and who wouldn't want to be a 28 year old single $140-millionaire living in San Diego? He did OK for himself.
   10. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: February 19, 2018 at 12:55 PM (#5626905)
Given how little the Sox have done in the offseason, Hosmer could have been playing a lot of meaningless games in Boston too

I mean it's baseball, and anything is possible. But this is pretty much nonsense. The Red Sox fortunes don't primarily hinge on what they do in this FA class. They won the division last year. Have no significant losses. Most systems I have seen project them in the low 90's.

Filling the hole at 1B/DH was really the only thing the Sox had to do (and may still happen with JDM). I am not sure what other moves the Sox really should have been targeting? And presumably if Hosmer had gone to the Sox, that would have counted too (though I would maintain that it was not filled well in that case). Making moves just for the sake of making moves is a dumb strategy.
   11. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: February 19, 2018 at 01:24 PM (#5626928)
Yeah, it’s not sexy but winning the off-season is a guarantee of nothing (see 2011). I’m pretty confident in the team the Sox have. Obviously the Yankees are very good as well but if the Sox go as is they should still have a shot at the division.
   12. Walt Davis Posted: February 19, 2018 at 04:12 PM (#5627040)
I think the Sox look significantly worse than the Yanks (i.e. 2-3 wins on paper) and may struggle to take a WC spot. And given the 1-game play-in, WC spots ain't much. The Sox offense wasn't good last year -- it could improve on its own with a full season of Devers, more Pedroia, better-hitting Betts, developing Benintendi -- but I'm WAGging more of the same. The pitching overall seemed over its head last year with a 123 ERA+. Not just some excellent work from their regulars but excellent performances out of relievers 5-14 and starters 7-9.

By WAA, last year the only positions they were above-average were CF and RF and that's almost entirely on defense and base-running. All told, 66 runs below average with the bat and -1 WAA. Not that Hosmer was likely to help that much but this team really needs a bat. They're also stuck in that position where none of your starting position players suck so there's no obvious place to upgrade -- except 1B and DH and they chose early not to upgrade at 1B (an odd decision in my book).

As I've mentioned elsewhere, they seem an obvious landing spot for one of Milwaukee's bats -- Braun, Santana or Thames -- at various prices, I just don't know what the Sox have available to trade. Porcello (2/$42) for Braun (3/$60) makes some sense but Braun may already be in decline and not of much help.
   13. The Yankee Clapper Posted: February 19, 2018 at 04:22 PM (#5627053)
A somewhat curious observation from Red Sox Owner John Henry:
In particular, Henry highlighted what he believed was a passive approach at the plate under former hitting coach Chili Davis as the primary culprit for a 93-run dropoff in scoring from 2016 to 2017.

My impression was that Davis was highly regarded within MLB, as evidenced by the Cubs hiring him as soon as he was let go by Boston.
   14. Walt Davis Posted: February 19, 2018 at 05:09 PM (#5627098)
Addendum to my #12 ... Corey Dickerson is another obvious option for the Red Sox DH. Not as big an impact as JDM but cheap, short-term (although maybe multi-year), seems still capable of reasonable corner OF defense. He's quite possibly as good a hitter as Hosmer, only 1 year older, a team could probably teach him 1B if that's where their need is, history of injury. No obvious reason I see to prefer Jay Bruce over him.
   15. villageidiom Posted: February 19, 2018 at 05:27 PM (#5627113)
A somewhat curious observation from Red Sox Owner John Henry:

They were around the bottom of MLB in swing % on pitches in the zone. (Fangraphs z-swing%)

They were around the top of MLB in contact per swing, both on the pitches in the zone and on pitches out of the zone. (Fangraphs o-contact% and z-contact%)
In particular, Henry highlighted what he believed was a passive approach at the plate under former hitting coach Chili Davis as the primary culprit for a 93-run dropoff in scoring from 2016 to 2017.

The swing & contact percentage rankings mentioned above for 2017 were also true in 2016. And 2015. So, uh, all of the years Davis was their hitting coach.

If Henry is saying it was a change in approach, it doesn't appear to be the case. If he's saying the opposition adjusted, throwing some meatballs that Boston was likely to let go by, and Boston didn't adjust I suppose he could be right but I'd like to see more evidence of it.
My impression was that Davis was highly regarded within MLB, as evidenced by the Cubs hiring him as soon as he was let go by Boston.
He is.
   16. dejarouehg Posted: February 19, 2018 at 05:42 PM (#5627120)
Signing JD makes this issue a little more moot
   17. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: February 19, 2018 at 05:46 PM (#5627123)
My impression was that Davis was highly regarded within MLB, as evidenced by the Cubs hiring him as soon as he was let go by Boston.


It's possible that he's generally a good coach, but wasn't a good fit for the specific players on Boston's roster.
   18. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: February 19, 2018 at 05:49 PM (#5627125)
Vlad makes a great point. COaches are like teachers. Sometimes they have a good mix with their pupils, other times they don’t. It’s like some managers do well with veteran teams while others are good with kids.
   19. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: February 19, 2018 at 06:30 PM (#5627145)
JD deal is done.
   20. Adam Starblind Posted: February 19, 2018 at 07:27 PM (#5627157)
110MM/5

I wouldn't count on him to be worth that per WAR, but it's better than what he was supposedly seeking.

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