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1. Rough CarriganBe here ALLL week.
Would it make sense to put Cameron in right when they play in Fenway since RF is huge? I don't know how good Drew is in right.
It occurred to me. But without any information on that yet, I suspect Theo wants Ellsbury in CF so he can develop into a good CF. Whether he will or not is anybody's guess.
I predict that I will moderately like the offseason moves by the Sox, while the rest of Boston will hate hate hate them. "We should have signed Pujols instead!" "Or traded for Mauer!"
Would it make sense to put Cameron in right when they play in Fenway since RF is huge? I don't know how good Drew is in right.
Drew is excellent in RF, or at least he has been:
UZR
2007 -2
2008 +13
2009 +16
Ellsbury is thought of as a star in Boston, but a minor star, nothing like Jeter in NY. I suspect they end up roughly splitting the time, with Cameron getting some time in RF for JD Drew's inevitable vacation, and it's no big deal except for a couple of otherwise slow days on WEEI in March.
It really is remarkable - great defense and an OPS+ between 104 and 123 in eleven straight seasons. How many other guys have that many seasons in a row within 20 points OPS+?
That makes sense, it just seems like such a waste to leave Cameron in that tiny LF. Even if the guy can't go get them like he used to, he's still a guy who can cover a lot of ground. I'm sure he'll be like +20 in LF but it still seems like a waste.
As a sidenote, at a Nats game when the Brewers were in town and Cameron, who is basically an old man at this point, was stretching before the game by putting his leg on a guys shoulder and they were both standing. It was pretty remarkable to see a nearly 40 year old man do something like that so effortlessly.
Well, the Sox still have to play 81 games with larger LFs...
Let's not forget his collision with Beltran. There was talk that his career was over at that point...
Your point is still valid but Cameron is only 35 years old.
Let's not forget his collision with Beltran. There was talk that his career was over at that point...
I thought that's what he was talking about.
That was a bad day.
I misread it; I don't remember Mike Cameron snapping his humerus but after coming back from that Beltran collision, I wouldn't put it past him.
Try 37. Or at least he will be by the top spring training starts.
Your point is still valid but Cameron is only 35 years old.
Try 37.
Well, I'm glad we got that figured out.
As for nimbleness or flexibility, when I was a lifeguard I worked with a guy who was in his 40's and had been the state champion in the hurdles in the early 70's (he showed me a photo of himself in a later race against Edwin Moses. he said he got beat by like 50 meters) but had recently spent a decade in prison. Anyway, he was also the Y's karate instructor and one day on the deck, he was casually standing on one leg while he kept the other foot above his head and kicked it back and forth. It was one of the most amazing things I've ever seen.
The off-season is a work-in-progress, I know, but this does not feel like a step in a good direction to me.
Cameron's right around that age where consistency can turn into dust pretty rapidly.
I'm not a fan of making a guy the highest paid Sox when I give him a 50% (IMHO)of being the fourth best SP next year. But I'm also realistic in that I'm not going to run down the street screaming "BIGBATBIGBATBIGBAT!!!", without a realistic solution.
Maybe not here, but I'm sure in the mainstream Boston media, there's been outrage. Obviously people here are more intune to defensive stats(taken with that big grain of salt of course), and can see the bigger picture as to what Boston is trying achieve this season. Coupled with the signing of Lackey and maybe getting Beltre to play third; as pointed out on one of the other threads, if the team gives up less than 650 runs, does it matter if they score 805 or 835 runs for the season?
Second, I don't see much reason to consider the Red Sox run prevention and run scoring sides separately. I can see the case that at certain extremes, a run saved and a run scored aren't basically equal, but the 2009-2010 Red Sox don't seem to me to have reached such a point. And the team is clearly investing in run prevention to make up for the losses in run scoring. Seems like a reasonable plan.
Possibly because in PSD (and I'm speculating this is the mindset everywhere with nutty Sox fans) the self-feeeding insane idea of the day is that Boston will get Adrian Gonzalez for either or both of Ellsbury and Buchholz. So they seem to be just fine with replacing them with Cameron and Lackey.
Uh, Boston scored 872 runs last season, I only asked for 800 or so. And yes, I think they can give up 45 fewer runs. I reckon they'll still score in the vicinity of 830 runs, so the pythag will be around the same.
Assuming a generalized Pythagorean relationship between runs scored, runs allowed and wins (i.e. where the exponent can be arbitrary), the environment doesn't have to be that extreme for there to be a noticeable difference between the marginal run scored and the marginal run saved. Fortunately for the Red Sox, a good team gains more from a run saved than a run scored, and the better the team larger the relative difference: the ratio between the win value of the marginal run saved to the marginal run scored is equal to the ratio of runs scored to runs allowed. As a quick and dirty illustration, the 2009 Red Sox scored 872 runs and allowed 736, and 873/736 = 1.18, so the marginal run saved is 18% more valuable than the marginal run scored. Of course, this is not really accurate; one should really apply these calculations to an updated projection of what the team would be expected to do given it's current roster.
He is also a proud member of the Hall of "well, at least he was better than Jim Rice."
I've always really liked Cameron, but he's not a very good hitter and is either 35, 37 or 40.
This Red Sox team is going to be pitiful on offensively.
Also, anyone else see a huge chance of things going very, very bad?
i.e. Scutaro plays like he does every non-2009 year, Cameron ages and struggles in the AL East, Youk regresses, and Jacoby and Pedroia don't get better.
I don't know about "very, very bad". In this particular worst case, Cameron still mashes lefties and platoons with Hermida, Ellsbury and Pedroia both put up ~110 OPS+, and Scutaro gets on base 34% of the time and plays decent defense (ie outperforms every Red Sox SS in years). Yeah, Youk with OBP but no power would be a big blow to the middle of the order, but they'll have a full year of VMart, Ortiz put up a 128 OPS+ in the second half, and Drew's Drew. That's not a "pitiful" lineup even in the context of recent Sox and Yankees teams, and besides they've got the the best 1-2-3 pitching in MLB now! Suck on that Yankees!
I misread it; I don't remember Mike Cameron snapping his humerus
You guys want a humerus snap? Okay, yo' mama's so nasty, she pours salt water in her panties to keep the crabs fresh. OHHH, SWEAT!
Nope, just players everyone hates. I don't imagine anyone else here has a problem with that.
:-)
--he will be able to play a legit major league centerfield until his early 40's
--he will have a month stretch where he is Pujols and a two month stretch where he's malnourished Jack Wilson
--when he does make an error it will be on a routine play but Mike just.....misses. And for the next two innings you will see him in the field muttering, fussing with his glove and wandering around.
--he really struggles against power pitchers
This last item should be of concern to Sox fans given the division's pitching composition. Cameron is overmatched by guys with big arms. Just from memory I know in like 30 at bats Matt Cain has struck him out 10 times. Same with Roy Oswalt. Chad Billingsley utterly humiliated Mike several times.
Just a heads up. That trend will only worsen over time.............
That's not very nice of him to starve Jack Wilson.
Ha -- he's struck out 11 times in 30 ABs against Oswalt, but he's also hit .300 / .323 / .433 against him. (Cain and Billingsley definitely had his number, tho.)
I'm thinking / hoping the four-man OF rotation Boston would have if they signed Cameron (w/ Hermida splitting time in LF & RF, and Ellsbury able to play all three spots -- Cameron's discomfort in the corners during his Mets tenure would have me hesitant to try that again) would mitigate MC's deficiencies, & maybe even his streakiness.
1) Mike Cameron is a mammal.
2) Mike Cameron fights ALL the time.
3) The purpose of Mike Cameron is to flip out and kill people.
Why does everyone keep saying this? They scored 872 runs last year, and the only downgrade is from Bay to Cameron. They'll still have at least an average offense, assuming no more major signings.
My experience tells me that to gain full benefit from a "streaky" player the player must play regularly.
Sox only play 81 games in Fenway.
I see it as a 4 OF rotation, with Cameron/Hermida involved in a 70/30 platoon in LF, plus Hermida getting ABs playing RF for Drew's injury he's going to have. If Hermida can play a decent LF, then I would guess he'd be starting there against tough RH pitchers (Burnett, Verlander, Grienke, etc) esp at home (where the monster can hide his range limitations).
For someone who loves roster and lineup flexibility, Tito must love the combination of Cameron, Ellsbury, Drew, Hermida.
No, but I also don't see this offseason as being done, either, as they are still likely to get a 3B or 1B. The only thing keeping Lowell from being traded is his health, and if his health is so bad he can't be traded he's not their starter in 2010. Getting Cameron frees up Ellsbury; getting Lackey frees up... well, yeah, Buchholz, but really any non-Lester starter. So they do have viable pieces they can assemble for a trade.
It does appear that getting Cameron takes them out of the Holliday sweepstakes, but they're no more out of that than the Yankees are after getting Granderson. If anything we've seen that this FO is perfectly content having too many solutions. Maybe it's a bad thing (see Penny, Brad and Smoltz, John) and maybe it's a good thing (see Mueller, Ortiz, Millar, Giambi, Hillenbrand). Regardless, I wouldn't take these signings as a sign that the team is done with these positions. It doesn't mean they're getting Holliday, but it doesn't mean they're done.
I think there's a tension between your second and third paragraphs, there. If Ellsbury and Buchholz are traded, the club would be thin at OF and very thin in the starting rotation. They would be expecting at least 200 IP from some combination of Bonser, Tazawa, and Bowden.
Now, obviously, if San Diego wants to give us a magical pony for Ellsbury and Buchholz, the Sox will take it and worry about depth the morning after. But otherwise, I think your point about Theo's depth fetish helps explain why it's pretty likely that the offseason is just about done, and the reason the Sox seem to have an extra OF and an extra starting pitcher is that the Red Sox always try to have at least one extra bat and one extra SP, usually two or three.
I'll be surprised if there's another big move to come - Adrian Beltre is the biggest move I see coming, and there may not be money for him.
Thankfully Halladay is now out of the division.
Wow. That didn't occur to me. I assumed that signing Lackey might mean putting Buchholz on the block for A-Gon, but it could easily mean Ellsbury, too. There could be something mega in the works. Especially since the Red Sox have a huge number of CF prospects who are approaching ready-status (Kalish, Reddick, Westmoreland).
I wonder--it might end up being Buchholz/Ellsbury for Gonzalez/Kouzmanoff, with the Sox kicking in some cash. If they did that, I'd be impressed. Though I don't know how much I like Kouz.
It just doesn't have the same ring as "Youk".
What is the current projected payroll?
I agree based on the payroll numbers that they might be done. The only thing that would change this is if they make moves that help payroll, which is why I went with "non-Lester starter" instead of "Buchholz". Similar to the Phillies with Halladay/Lee, it's possible the Red Sox are picking up Lackey as a precursor to trading Beckett.
I agree with you that they're likely either done or setting up for a pony trade.
Victory!
I watched Cameron a lot when he was here in SD. I mostly agree with HW's observations. I would add that he seems to be a really good guy and is fun to root for, based on long-distance observation.
As to the Red Sox, I don't think they are done. I think they will add another bat of some sort. I also wonder what this means for Matt Holliday. Back to the Cardinals? The Yankees? The Mets?
My opinion has been that the Yankees will not sign Holliday, in that Cahsman will not want ANOTHER guy they have to commit to until he is 36 or 37 who is not quite a top-tier guy. I think Holliday stays with the Cardinals or goes to the Mets (yes, I know about the money issues with the Wilpon family).
Unless the Sox are eating all or most of Kotchman's salary in this scenario, why would SD want him? The only reason they'd consider trading Gonzalez is that they think Blanks can do a reasonable Gonzalez impression at 1B.
Honestly, a nice simple Ellsbury for Blanks trade makes a helluva lot more sense for both teams than some of these various permutations of a Gonzalez to Boston deal.
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